Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Transmission of cocoa swollen shoot virus by seeds

A study was undertaken to determine whether cocoa swollen shoot virus is transmitted by seeds, to improve the robustness of quarantine procedures for international exchange and long term conservation of cocoa germplasm. PCR/capillary electrophoresis, using cocoa swollen shoot virus primers designed from the most conserved regions of the six published cocoa genome sequences, allowed the detection of cocoa swollen shoot virus in all the component parts of cocoa seeds from cocoa swollen shoot virus-infected trees. PCR/capillary electrophoresis revealed the presence of cocoa swollen shoot virus in seedlings raised from seeds obtained from cocoa swollen shoot virus-infected trees. The high frequency with which the virus was transmitted through the seedlings suggested that cocoa swollen shoot virus is transmitted by seeds. This has serious implications for cocoa germplasm conservation and distribution. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbohydrate-based anti-adhesive inhibition of Vibrio cholerae toxin binding to GM1-OS immobilized into artificial planar lipid membranes

We have studied 'food grade' sialyloligosaccharides (SOS) as anti-adhesive drugs or receptor analogues, since the terminal sialic acid residue has already been shown to contribute significantly to the adhesion and pathogenesis of the Vibrio cholerae toxin (Ctx). GM1-oligosaccharide (GM1-OS) was immobilized into a supporting POPC lipid bilayer onto a surface plasmon resonance (SPR) chip, and the interaction between uninhibited Ctx and GM1-OS-POPC was measured. SOS inhibited 94.7% of the Ctx binding to GM1-OS-POPC at 10 mg/mL. The SOS EC50 value of 5.521 mg/mL is high compared with 0.2811 mu g/mL (182.5 pM or 1.825 x 10(-10) M) for GM1-OS. The commercially available sialyloligosaccharide (SOS) mixture Sunsial E (R) is impure, containing one monosialylated and two disialylated oligosaccharides in the ratio 9.6%. 6.5% and 17.5%, respectively, and 66.4% protein. However, these inexpensive food-grade molecules are derived from egg yolk and could be used to fortify conventional food additives, by way of emulsifiers, sweeteners and/or preservatives. The work further supports our hypothesis that SOS could be a promising natural anti-adhesive glycomimetic against Ctx and prevent subsequent onset of disease. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

In vitro fermentation of oat and barley derived beta-glucans by human faecal microbiota

Fermentation of beta-glucan fractions from barley [average molecular mass (MM), of 243, 172, and 137 kDa] and oats (average MM of 230 and 150 kDa) by the human faecal microbiota was investigated. Fractions were supplemented to pH-controlled anaerobic batch culture fermenters inoculated with human faecal samples from three donors, in triplicate, for each substrate. Microbiota changes were monitored by fluorescent in situ hybridization; groups enumerated were: Bifidobacterium genus, Bacteroides and Prevotella group, Clostridium histolyticum subgroup, Ruminococcus-Eubacterium-Clostridium (REC) cluster, Lactobacillus-Enterococcus group, Atopobium cluster, and clostridial cluster IX. Short-chain fatty acids and lactic acid were measured by HPLC. The C. histolyticum subgroup increased significantly in all vessels and clostridial cluster IX maintained high populations with all fractions. The Bacteroides-Prevotella group increased with all but the 243-kDa barley and 230-kDa oat substrates. In general beta-glucans displayed no apparent prebiotic potential. The SCFA profile (51 : 32 : 17; acetate : propionate : butyrate) was considered propionate-rich. In a further study a beta-glucan oligosaccharide fraction was produced with a degree of polymerization of 3-4. This fraction was supplemented to small-scale faecal batch cultures and gave significant increases in the Lactobacillus-Enterococcus group; however, the prebiotic potential of this fraction was marginal compared with that of inulin.

Input and output modality effects in immediate serial recall

In immediate recall tasks, visual recency is substantially enhanced when output interference is low (Cowan, Saults, Elliott, & Moreno, 2002; Craik, 1969) whereas auditory recency remains high even under conditions of high output interference. Ibis auditory advantage has been interpreted in terms of auditory resistance to output interference (e.g., Neath & Surprenant, 2003). In this study the auditory-visual difference at low output interference re-emerged when ceiling effects were accounted for, but only with spoken output. With written responding the auditory advantage remained significantly larger with high than with low output interference. These new data suggest that both superior auditory encoding and modality-specific output interference contribute to the classic auditory-visual modality effect.

Feasibility of guided CBT self-help for childhood anxiety disorders in primary care

Anxiety disorders in childhood are common, disabling and run a chronic course. Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) effective but is expensive and trained therapists are scarce. Guided self-help treatments may be a means of widening access to treatment. This study aimed to examine the feasibility of guided CBT self-help for childhood anxiety disorders in Primary Care, specifically in terms of therapist adherence, patient and therapist satisfaction and clinical gain. Participants were children aged 5-12 years referred to two Primary Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (PCAMHSs) in Oxfordshire, UK, who met diagnostic criteria for a primary anxiety disorder. Of the 52 eligible children, 41 anxious children were assessed for anxiety severity and interference before and after receiving CBT self-help, delivered via the parent (total therapy time= 5 hours) by Primary Mental Health Workers (PMHWs). Therapy sessions were rated for treatment adherence and patients and PMHWs completed satisfaction questionnaires after treatment completion. Over 80% of therapy sessions were rated at a high level of treatment adherence. Parents and PMHWs reported high satisfaction with the treatment. 61% of the children assessed no longer met criteria for their primary anxiety disorder diagnosis following treatment, and 76% were rated as ‘much’/’very much’ improved on the Clinician’s Global Impression-Improvement scale. There were significant reductions on parent and child report measures of anxiety symptoms, interference, and depression. Preliminary exploration indicated that parental anxiety was associated with child treatment outcome. The findings suggest that guided CBT self-help represents a promising treatment for childhood anxiety in primary care.

Pil and Galia Kollectiv: solo exhibition at Te Tuhi Art Centre, Auckland, New Zealand.

The exhibition presents the full Future Trilogy which was completed in 2009. The trilogy is based on the opening of a new IKEA store in Edmonton, London in November 2005. IKEA celebrated with a twenty-four hour launch accompanied by significant price reductions on leather sofas. But when six thousand people arrived to compete for the discount a riot ensued which injured sixteen shoppers and required the store to be closed after just thirty minutes. The Future Trilogy takes this event as the starting point to speculate on a future where the popular fascination with modern designer furniture has morphed into state religions underpinned by the ideals of the early twentieth century avant-garde. The exhibition also presents their 2010 work Co-Operative Explanatory Capabilities in Organizational Design and Personnel Management which narrates a fictional story of a company that adopts highly experimental approaches to achieving worker productivity. The project investigates the place of creativity in efficiency management and the operation of bureaucratic systems in a post-industrial work environment. The Kollectiv's pseudo documentary creates a careful blend of fact and fiction through the combination of a distinctive BBC narrator's voice with imagery sourced from an online photographic archive for an early computing company. The story becomes increasingly provocative as more and more of the bizarre antics of the company employees are revealed, leading to the members of the company eventually forming a religious cult.

Temporal relations of column water vapor and tropical precipitation

Empirical studies using satellite data and radiosondes have shown that precipitation increases with column water vapor (CWV) in the tropics, and that this increase is much steeper above some critical CWV value. Here, eight years of 1-min-resolution microwave radiometer and optical gauge data at Nauru Island are analyzed to better understand the relationships among CWV, column liquid water (CLW), and precipitation at small time scales. CWV is found to have large autocorrelation times compared with CLW and precipitation. Before precipitation events, CWV increases on both a synoptic-scale time period and a subsequent shorter time period consistent with mesoscale convective activity; the latter period is associated with the highest CWV levels. Probabilities of precipitation increase greatly with CWV. Given initial high CWV, this increased probability of precipitation persists at least 10–12 h. Even in periods of high CWV, however, probabilities of initial precipitation in a 5-min period remain low enough that there tends to be a lag before the start of the next precipitation event. This is consistent with precipitation occurring stochastically within environments containing high CWV, with the latter being established by a combination of synoptic-scale and mesoscale forcing.

Direct iminization of PEEK

Semi-crystalline poly(ether ketone)s are important high-temperature engineering thermoplastics, but are difficult to characterize at the molecular level because of their insolubility in conventional organic solvents. Here we report that polymers of this type, including PEEK, react cleanly at high temperatures with low-volatility aralkyl amines to afford stable, noncrystalline poly(ether-imine)s, which are readily soluble in solvents such as chloroform, THF and DMF and so characterizable by conventional size-exclusion chromatography.

The surprising role of orography in the initiation of an isolated thunderstorm in southern England

Many factors, both mesoscale and larger scale, often come together in order for a particular convective initiation to take place. The authors describe a modeling study of a case from the Convective Storms Initiation Project (CSIP) in which a single thunderstorm formed behind a front in the southern United Kingdom. The key features of the case were a tongue of low-level high θw air associated with a forward-sloping split front (overrunning lower θw air above), a convergence line, and a “lid” of high static stability air, which the shower was initially constrained below but later broke through. In this paper, the authors analyze the initiation of the storm, which can be traced back to a region of high ground (Dartmoor) at around 0700 UTC, in more detail using model sensitivity studies with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). It is established that the convergence line was initially caused by roughness effects but had a significant thermal component later. Dartmoor had a key role in the development of the thunderstorm. A period of asymmetric flow over the high ground, with stronger low-level descent in the lee, led to a hole in a layer of low-level clouds downstream. The surface solar heating through this hole, in combination with the tongue of low-level high θw air associated with the front, caused the shower to initiate with sufficient lifting to enable it later to break through the lid.

Reconciling observed and modelled phytoplankton dynamics in a major lowland UK river system, the Thames

This study aims to elucidate the key mechanisms controlling phytoplankton growth and decay within the Thames basin through the application of a modified version of an established river-algal model and comparison with observed stream water chlorophyll-a concentrations. The River Thames showed a distinct simulated phytoplankton seasonality and behaviour having high spring, moderate summer and low autumn chlorophyll-a concentrations. Three main sections were identified along the River Thames with different phytoplankton abundance and seasonality: (i) low chlorophyll-a concentrations from source to Newbridge; (ii) steep concentration increase between Newbridge and Sutton; and (iii) high concentrations with a moderate increase in concentration from Sutton to the end of the study area (Maidenhead). However, local hydrologic (e.g. locks) and other conditions (e.g. radiation, water depth, grazer dynamics, etc.) affected the simulated growth and losses. The model achieved good simulation results during both calibration and testing through a range of hydrological and nutrient conditions. Simulated phytoplankton growth was controlled predominantly by residence time, but during medium–low flow periods available light, water temperature and herbivorous grazing defined algal community development. These results challenge the perceived importance of in-stream nutrient concentrations as the perceived primary control on phytoplankton growth and death.

A Possible Change in Mass Balance of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in the Coming Century

A high-resolution GCM is found to simulate precipitation and surface energy balance of high latitudes with high accuracy. This opens new possibilities to investigate the future mass balance of polar glaciers and its effect on sea level. The surface mass balance of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets is simulated using the ECHAM3 GCM with TI06 horizontal resolution. With this model, two 5-year integrations for the present and doubled carbon dioxide conditions based on the boundary conditions provided by the ECHAM1/T21 transient experiment have been conducted. A comparison of the two experiments over Greenland and Antarctica shows to what extent the effect of climate change on the mass balance on the two largest glaciers of the world can differ. On Greenland one sees a slight decrease in accumulation and a substantial increase in melt, while on Antarctica a large increase in accumulation without melt is projected. Translating the mass balances into terms of sea-level equivalent. the Greenland discharge causes a sea level rise of 1.1 mm yr−1, while the accumulation on Antarctica tends to lower it by 0.9 mm yr−1. The change in the combined mass balance of the two continents is almost zero. The sea level change of the next century can be affected more effectively by the thermal expansion of seawater and the mass balance of smaller glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica.

Whole-brain functional connectivity during emotional word classification in medication-free Major Depressive Disorder: abnormal salience circuitry and relations to positive emotionality

Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) has been associated with biased processing and abnormal regulation of negative and positive information, which may result from compromised coordinated activity of prefrontal and subcortical brain regions involved in evaluating emotional information. We tested whether patients with MDD show distributed changes in functional connectivity with a set of independently derived brain networks that have shown high correspondence with different task demands, including stimulus salience and emotional processing. We further explored if connectivity during emotional word processing related to the tendency to engage in positive or negative emotional states. In this study, 25 medication-free MDD patients without current or past comorbidity and matched controls (n=25) performed an emotional word-evaluation task during functional MRI. Using a dual regression approach, individual spatial connectivity maps representing each subject’s connectivity with each standard network were used to evaluate between-group differences and effects of positive and negative emotionality (extraversion and neuroticism, respectively, as measured with the NEO-FFI). Results showed decreased functional connectivity of the medial prefrontal cortex, ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, and ventral striatum with the fronto-opercular salience network in MDD patients compared to controls. In patients, abnormal connectivity was related to extraversion, but not neuroticism. These results confirm the hypothesis of a relative (para)limbic-cortical decoupling that may explain dysregulated affect in MDD. As connectivity of these regions with the salience network was related to extraversion, but not to general depression severity or negative emotionality, dysfunction of this network may be responsible for the failure to sustain engagement in rewarding behavior.

Hydrology and climatology at Laguna La Gaiba, lowland Bolivia: complex responses to climatic forcings over the last 25,000 years

Diatom, geochemical and isotopic data provide a record of environmental change in Laguna La Gaiba, lowland Bolivia (17°450S, 57°350W), over the last ca. 25 000 years. High-resolution diatom analysis around the Last Glacial–Interglacial Transition provides new insights into this period of change. The full and late glacial lake was generally quite shallow, but with evidence of periodic flooding. At about 13 100 cal a BP, just before the start of the Younger Dryas chronozone, the diatoms indicate shallower water conditions, but there is a marked change at about 12 200 cal a BP indicating the onset of a period of high variability, with rising water levels punctuated by periodic drying. From ca. 11 800 to 10 000 cal a BP, stable, deeper water conditions persisted. There is evidence for drying in the early to middle Holocene, but not as pronounced as that reported from elsewhere in the southern hemisphere tropics of South America. This was followed by the onset of wetter conditions in the late Holocene consistent with insolation forcing. Conditions very similar to present were established about 2100 cal a BP. A complex response to both insolation forcing and millennial-scale events originating in the North Atlantic is noted.

A frequency-independent boundary element method for scattering by two-dimensional screens and apertures

We propose and analyse a hybrid numerical–asymptotic hp boundary element method (BEM) for time-harmonic scattering of an incident plane wave by an arbitrary collinear array of sound-soft two-dimensional screens. Our method uses an approximation space enriched with oscillatory basis functions, chosen to capture the high-frequency asymptotics of the solution. We provide a rigorous frequency-explicit error analysis which proves that the method converges exponentially as the number of degrees of freedom N increases, and that to achieve any desired accuracy it is sufficient to increase N in proportion to the square of the logarithm of the frequency as the frequency increases (standard BEMs require N to increase at least linearly with frequency to retain accuracy). Our numerical results suggest that fixed accuracy can in fact be achieved at arbitrarily high frequencies with a frequency-independent computational cost, when the oscillatory integrals required for implementation are computed using Filon quadrature. We also show how our method can be applied to the complementary ‘breakwater’ problem of propagation through an aperture in an infinite sound-hard screen.