Gene transcription in Daphnia magna: effects of acute exposure to a carbamate insecticide and an acetanilide herbicide.

Daphnia magna is a key invertebrate in the freshwater environment and is used widely as a model in ecotoxicological measurements and risk assessment. Understanding the genomic responses of D. magna to chemical challenges will be of value to regulatory authorities worldwide. Here we exposed D. magna to the insecticide methomyl and the herbicide propanil to compare phenotypic effects with changes in mRNA expression levels. Both pesticides are found in drainage ditches and surface water bodies standing adjacent to crops. Methomyl, a carbamate insecticide widely used in agriculture, inhibits acetylcholinesterase, a key enzyme in nerve transmission. Propanil, an acetanilide herbicide, is used to control grass and broad-leaf weeds. The phenotypic effects of single doses of each chemical were evaluated using a standard immobilisation assay. Immobilisation was linked to global mRNA expression levels using the previously estimated 48h-EC(1)s, followed by hybridization to a cDNA microarray with more than 13,000 redundant cDNA clones representing >5000 unique genes. Following exposure to methomyl and propanil, differential expression was found for 624 and 551 cDNAs, respectively (one-way ANOVA with Bonferroni correction, P

Production of relative clauses in monolingual Turkish children

Research on the production of relative clauses (RCs) has shown that in English, although children start using intransitive RCs at an earlier age, more complex, bi-propositional object RCs appear later (Hamburger & Crain, 1982; Diessel and Tomasello, 2005), and children use resumptive pronouns both in acceptable and unacceptable ways (McKee, McDaniel, & Snedeker, 1998; McKee & McDaniel, 2001). To date, it is unclear whether or not the same picture emerges in Turkish, a language with an SOV word-order and overt case marking. Some studies suggested that subject RCs are more frequent in adults and children (Slobin, 1986) and yield a better performance than object RCs (Özcan, 1996), but others reported the opposite pattern (Ekmekçi, 1990). Our study addresses this issue in Turkish children and adults, and uses participants’ errors to account for the emerging asymmetry between subject and object RCs. 37 5-to-8 year old monolingual Turkish children and 23 adult controls participated in a novel elicitation task involving cards, each consisting of four different pictures (see Figure 1). There were two sets of cards, one for the participant and one for the researcher. The former had animals with accessories (e.g., a hat) whereas the latter had no accessories. Participants were instructed to hold their card without showing it to the researcher and describe the animals with particular accessories. This prompted the use of subject and object RCs. The researcher had to identify the animals in her card (see Figure 2). A preliminary repeated measures ANOVA with the factor Group (pre-school, primary-school children) showed no differences between the groups in the use of RCs (p>.1), who were therefore collapsed into one for further analyses. A repeated measures ANOVA with the factors Group (children, adults) and RC-Type (Subject, Object) showed that children used fewer RCs than adults (F(1,58)=7.54, p<.01), and both groups used fewer object than subject RCs (F(1,58)=22.46, p<.001), but there was no Group by RC-Type interaction (see Figure 3). A similar ANOVA on the rate of grammatical RCs showed a main effect of Group (F(1,58)=77.25, p<.001), a main effect of RC-Type (F(1,58)=66.33, p<.001), and an interaction of Group by RC-Type (F(1,58)=64.6, p<.001) (see Figure 4). Children made more errors than adults in object RCs (F(1,58)=87.01, p<.001), and children made more errors in object compared to subject RCs (F(1,36)=106.35, p<.001), but adults did not show this asymmetry. The error analysis revealed that children systematically avoided the object-relativizing morpheme –DIK, which requires possessive agreement with the genitive-marked subject. They also used resumptive pronouns and resumptive full-DPs in the extraction site similarly to English children (see Figure 5). These findings are in line with Slobin (1986) and Özcan (1996). Children’s errors suggest that they avoid morphosyntactic complexity of object RCs and try to preserve the canonical word order by inserting resumptive pronouns in the extraction site. Finally, cross-linguistic similarity in the acquisition of RCs in typologically different languages suggests a higher accessibility of subject RCs both at the structural (Keenan and Comrie, 1977) and conceptual level (Bock and Warren, 1986).

The effect of the daily intake of inulin on fasting lipid, insulin and glucose concentrations in middle-aged men and women

The present study was carried out to examine the effect of the daily intake of 10 g inulin on fasting blood lipid, glucose and insulin levels in healthy middle-aged men and women with moderately raised total plasma cholesterol (TC) and triacylglycerol (TAG) levels. This study was a doubleblind randomized placebo-controlled parallel study in which fifty-four middle-aged subjects received either inulin or placebo for a period of 8 weeks. Fasting blood samples were collected before the supplementation period (baseline samples 1 and 2, separated by 1 week) and at weeks 4 and 8, with a follow-up at week 12. Compared with baseline values, insulin concentrations were significantly lower at 4 weeks (P,0×01) in the inulin group. There was a trend for TAG values, compared with baseline, to be lower in the inulin group at 8 weeks (P,0×08) returning to baseline concentrations at week 12. On comparison of the inulin and placebo groups, the fasting TAG responses over the 8-week test period were shown to be significantly different (P,0×05, repeated measures ANOVA), which was largely due to lower plasma TAG levels in the inulin group at week 8. The percentage change in TAG levels in the inulin group during the 8-week study was shown to correlate with the initial TAG level of the subjects (rs -0×499, P = 0×004). We therefore conclude that the daily addition of 10 g inulin to the diet significantly reduced fasting insulin concentrations during the 8-week test period and resulted in lower plasma TAG levels, particularly in subjects in whom fasting TAG levels were greater than 1×5 mmol/l. These data support findings from animal studies that fructans influence the formation and/or degradation of TAG-rich lipoprotein particles, and the insulin data are also consistent with recent studies showing attenuation of insulin levels in fructan-treated rats.

A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions

A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multi-model climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model-scenario interaction - the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is quantified as a function of lead time for a subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble and results largely agree with those published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the 21st century. Both elements of model uncertainty, due to scenario-independent and scenario-dependent deviations from the ensemble mean, are found to increase with time. Estimates of model deviations that arise as by-products of the framework reveal significant differences between models that could lead to a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in multi-model ensembles. For example, three models are shown diverging pattern over the 21st century, while another model exhibits an unusually large variation among its scenario-dependent deviations.

How often does direct real estate increase the risk-adjusted performance of the US mixed-asset portfolio?

The “case for real estate” in the mixed-asset portfolio is a topic of continuing interest to practitioners and academics. The argument is typically made by comparing efficient frontiers of portfolio with real estate to those that exclude real estate. However, most investors will have held inefficient portfolios. Thus, when analysing the real estate’s place in the mixed-asset portfolio it seems illogical to do so by comparing the difference in risk-adjusted performance between efficient portfolios, which few if any investor would have held. The approach adopted here, therefore, is to compare the risk-adjusted performance of a number of mixed-asset portfolios without real estate (which may or not be efficient) with a very large number of mixed-asset portfolios that include real estate (which again may or may not be efficient), to see the proportion of the time when there is an increase in risk-adjusted performance, significant or otherwise using appraisal-based and de-smoothed annual data from 1952-2003. So to the question how often does the addition of private real estate lead to increases the risk-adjusted performance compared with mixed-asset portfolios without real estate the answer is almost all the time. However, significant increases are harder to find. Additionally, a significant increase in risk-adjusted performance can come from either reductions in portfolio risk or increases in return depending on the investors’ initial portfolio structure. In other words, simply adding real estate to a mixed-asset portfolio is not enough to ensure significant increases in performance as the results are dependent on the percentage added and the proper reallocation of the initial portfolio mix in the expanded portfolio.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial property performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on "softer' signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the Investment Property Databank Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. January and August have significantly less appraisal changes than other months.

The transcriptome of Populus in elevated CO2

The consequences of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide for long-term adaptation of forest ecosystems remain uncertain, with virtually no studies undertaken at the genetic level. A global analysis using cDNA microarrays was conducted following 6 yr exposure of Populus × euramericana (clone I-214) to elevated [CO2] in a FACE (free-air CO2 enrichment) experiment.• Gene expression was sensitive to elevated [CO2] but the response depended on the developmental age of the leaves, and < 50 transcripts differed significantly between different CO2 environments. For young leaves most differentially expressed genes were upregulated in elevated [CO2], while in semimature leaves most were downregulated in elevated [CO2].• For transcripts related only to the small subunit of Rubisco, upregulation in LPI 3 and downregulation in LPI 6 leaves in elevated CO2 was confirmed by anova. Similar patterns of gene expression for young leaves were also confirmed independently across year 3 and year 6 microarray data, and using real-time RT–PCR.• This study provides the first clues to the long-term genetic expression changes that may occur during long-term plant response to elevated CO2.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial real estate performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on ‘softer’ signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the IPD Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. More November appraisals change than expected and this suggests that the increased information flows for the December end year appraisals are flowing through into earlier appraisals, especially as client/appraiser draft appraisal meetings for the December appraisals, a regular occurrence in the UK, can occur in November. January illustrates significantly less activity than other months, a seasonal effect after the exertions of the December appraisals.

Survival of Lactobacillus plantarum in model solutions and fruit juices

The aim of the work was to study the survival of Lactobacillus plantarum NCIMB 8826 in model solutions and develop a mathematical model describing its dependence on pH, citric acid and ascorbic acid. A Central Composite Design (CCD) was developed studying each of the three factors at five levels within the following ranges, i.e., pH (3.0-4.2), citric acid (6-40 g/L), and ascorbic acid (100-1000 mg/L). In total, 17 experimental runs were carried out. The initial cell concentration in the model solutions was approximately 1 × 10(8)CFU/mL; the solutions were stored at 4°C for 6 weeks. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the stepwise regression demonstrated that a second order polynomial model fits well the data. The results demonstrated that high pH and citric acid concentration enhanced cell survival; one the other hand, ascorbic acid did not have an effect. Cell survival during storage was also investigated in various types of juices, including orange, grapefruit, blackcurrant, pineapple, pomegranate, cranberry and lemon juice. The model predicted well the cell survival in orange, blackcurrant and pineapple, however it failed to predict cell survival in grapefruit and pomegranate, indicating the influence of additional factors, besides pH and citric acid, on cell survival. Very good cell survival (less than 0.4 log decrease) was observed after 6 weeks of storage in orange, blackcurrant and pineapple juice, all of which had a pH of about 3.8. Cell survival in cranberry and pomegranate decreased very quickly, whereas in the case of lemon juice, the cell concentration decreased approximately 1.1 logs after 6 weeks of storage, albeit the fact that lemon juice had the lowest pH (pH~2.5) among all the juices tested. Taking into account the results from the compositional analysis of the juices and the model, it was deduced that in certain juices, other compounds seemed to protect the cells during storage; these were likely to be proteins and dietary fibre In contrast, in certain juices, such as pomegranate, cell survival was much lower than expected; this could be due to the presence of antimicrobial compounds, such as phenolic compounds.

Investigation of the factors influencing the survival of Bifidobacterium longum in model acidic solutions and fruit juices

The survival of Bifidobacterium longum NCIMB 8809 was studied during refrigerated storage for 6 weeks in model solutions, based on which a mathematical model was constructed describing cell survival as a function of pH, citric acid, protein and dietary fibre. A Central Composite Design (CCD) was developed studying the influence of four factors at three levels, i.e., pH (3.2–4), citric acid (2–15 g/l), protein (0–10 g/l), and dietary fibre (0–8 g/l). In total, 31 experimental runs were carried out. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the regression model demonstrated that the model fitted well the data. From the regression coefficients it was deduced that all four factors had a statistically significant (P < 0.05) negative effect on the log decrease [log10N0 week−log10N6 week], with the pH and citric acid being the most influential ones. Cell survival during storage was also investigated in various types of juices, including orange, grapefruit, blackcurrant, pineapple, pomegranate and strawberry. The highest cell survival (less than 0.4 log decrease) after 6 weeks of storage was observed in orange and pineapple, both of which had a pH of about 3.8. Although the pH of grapefruit and blackcurrant was similar (pH ∼3.2), the log decrease of the former was ∼0.5 log, whereas of the latter was ∼0.7 log. One reason for this could be the fact that grapefruit contained a high amount of citric acid (15.3 g/l). The log decrease in pomegranate and strawberry juices was extremely high (∼8 logs). The mathematical model was able to predict adequately the cell survival in orange, grapefruit, blackcurrant, and pineapple juices. However, the model failed to predict the cell survival in pomegranate and strawberry, most likely due to the very high levels of phenolic compounds in these two juices.

Measurement of paraben concentrations in human breast tissue at serial locations across the breast from axilla to sternum

The concentrations of five esters of p-hydroxybenzoic acid (parabens) were measured using HPLC-MS/MS at four serial locations across the human breast from axilla to sternum using human breast tissue collected from 40 mastectomies for primary breast cancer in England between 2005 and 2008. One or more paraben esters were quantifiable in 158/160 (99%) of the tissue samples and in 96/160 (60%) all five esters were measured. Variation was notable with respect to individual paraben esters, location within one breast and similar locations in different breasts. Overall median values in nanograms per gram tissue for the 160 tissue samples were highest for n-propylparaben [16.8 (range 0–2052.7)] and methylparaben [16.6 (range 0–5102.9)]; levels were lower for n-butylparaben [5.8 (range 0–95.4)], ethylparaben [3.4 (range 0–499.7)] and isobutylparaben 2.1 (range 0–802.9). The overall median value for total paraben was 85.5 ng g−1 tissue (range 0–5134.5). The source of the paraben cannot be identified, but paraben was measured in the 7/40 patients who reported never having used underarm cosmetics in their lifetime. No correlations were found between paraben concentrations and age of patient (37–91 years), length of breast feeding (0–23 months), tumour location or tumour oestrogen receptor content. In view of the disproportionate incidence of breast cancer in the upper outer quadrant, paraben concentrations were compared across the four regions of the breast: n-propylparaben was found at significantly higher levels in the axilla than mid (P = 0.004 Wilcoxon matched pairs) or medial (P = 0.021 Wilcoxon matched pairs) regions (P = 0.010 Friedman ANOVA).

Is there a place for property in the multi-asset portfolio?

The case for property has typically rested on the application of modern portfolio theory (MPT), in that property has been shown to offer increased diversification benefits within a multi asset portfolio without hurting portfolio returns especially for lower risk portfolios. However this view is based upon the use of historic, usually appraisal based, data for property. Recent research suggests strongly that such data significantly underestimates the risk characteristics of property, because appraisals explicitly or implicitly smooth out much of the real volatility in property returns. This paper examines the portfolio diversification effects of including property in a multi-asset portfolio, using UK appraisal based (smoothed) data and several derived de-smoothed series. Having considered the effects of de-smoothing, we then consider the inclusion of a further low risk asset (cash) in order to investigate further whether property's place in a low risk portfolio is maintained. The conclusions of this study are that the previous supposed benefits of including property have been overstated. Although property may still have a place in a 'balanced' institutional portfolio, the case for property needs to be reassessed and not be based simplistically on the application of MPT.

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.

A neurofuzzy classifier for two class problems

A neurofuzzy classifier identification algorithm is introduced for two class problems. The initial fuzzy base construction is based on fuzzy clustering utilizing a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and the analysis of covariance (ANOVA) decomposition. The expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to determine the parameters of the fuzzy membership functions. Then neurofuzzy model is identified via the supervised subspace orthogonal least square (OLS) algorithm. Finally a logistic regression model is applied to produce the class probability. The effectiveness of the proposed neurofuzzy classifier has been demonstrated using a real data set.

A unified neurofuzzy model for classification

This work proposes a unified neurofuzzy modelling scheme. To begin with, the initial fuzzy base construction method is based on fuzzy clustering utilising a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) combined with the analysis of covariance (ANOVA) decomposition in order to obtain more compact univariate and bivariate membership functions over the subspaces of the input features. The mean and covariance of the Gaussian membership functions are found by the expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm with the merit of revealing the underlying density distribution of system inputs. The resultant set of membership functions forms the basis of the generalised fuzzy model (GFM) inference engine. The model structure and parameters of this neurofuzzy model are identified via the supervised subspace orthogonal least square (OLS) learning. Finally, instead of providing deterministic class label as model output by convention, a logistic regression model is applied to present the classifier’s output, in which the sigmoid type of logistic transfer function scales the outputs of the neurofuzzy model to the class probability. Experimental validation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed neurofuzzy modelling scheme.