Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change

This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered here – which gives a 50% chance of remaining below a 2oC temperature rise target - reduces impacts by 20-65% by 2100 relative to a ‘business-as-usual’ pathway (A1B) which reaches 4oC, and can delay impacts by several decades. Effects vary between sector and region, and there are few noticeable effects of mitigation policy by 2030. The impacts avoided by 2100 are more strongly influenced by the date and level at which emissions peak than the rate of decline of emissions, with an earlier and lower emissions peak avoiding more impacts. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided at the global scale is relatively robust despite uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change, but the absolute amount of avoided impacts is considerably more variable and therefore uncertain.

Voltage-gated sodium (NaV) channel blockade by plant cannabinoids does not confer anticonvulsant effects per se

Cannabidiol (CBD) is a non-psychoactive, well-tolerated, anticonvulsant plant cannabinoid, although its mechanism(s) of seizure suppression remains unknown. Here, we investigate the effect of CBD and the structurally similar cannabinoid, cannabigerol (CBG), on voltage-gated Na+ (NaV) channels, a common anti-epileptic drug target. CBG’s anticonvulsant potential was also assessed in vivo. CBD effects on NaV channels were investigated using patch-clamp recordings from rat CA1 hippocampal neurons in brain slices, human SH-SY5Y (neuroblastoma) cells and mouse cortical neurons in culture. CBG effects were also assessed in SH-SY5Y cells and mouse cortical neurons. CBD and CBG effects on veratridine-stimulated human recombinant NaV1.1, 1.2 or 1.5 channels were assessed using a membrane potential-sensitive fluorescent dye high-throughput assay. The effect of CBG on pentyleneterazole-induced (PTZ) seizures was assessed in rat. CBD (10M) blocked NaV currents in SH-SY5Y cells, mouse cortical neurons and recombinant cell lines, and affected spike parameters in rat CA1 neurons; CBD also significantly decreased membrane resistance. CBG blocked NaV to a similar degree to CBD in both SH-SY5Y and mouse recordings, but had no effect (50-200mg/kg) on PTZ-induced seizures in rat. CBD and CBG are NaV channel blockers at micromolar concentrations in human and murine neurons and recombinant cells. In contrast to previous reports investigating CBD, CBG had no effect upon PTZ-induced seizures in rat, indicating that NaV blockade per se does not correlate with anticonvulsant effects.

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches3,4, large ensembles of simplified climate models1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models5,6 which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources7–9. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report10, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensemblesof-opportunity5 typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

Human neural stem cell-derived cultures in three- dimensional substrates form spontaneously functional neuronal networks

Differentiated human neural stem cells were cultured in an inert three-dimensional (3D) scaffold and, unlike two-dimensional (2D) but otherwise comparable monolayer cultures, formed spontaneously active, functional neuronal networks that responded reproducibly and predictably to conventional pharmacological treatments to reveal functional, glutamatergic synapses. Immunocytochemical and electron microscopy analysis revealed a neuronal and glial population, where markers of neuronal maturity were observed in the former. Oligonucleotide microarray analysis revealed substantial differences in gene expression conferred by culturing in a 3D vs a 2D environment. Notable and numerous differences were seen in genes coding for neuronal function, the extracellular matrix and cytoskeleton. In addition to producing functional networks, differentiated human neural stem cells grown in inert scaffolds offer several significant advantages over conventional 2D monolayers. These advantages include cost savings and improved physiological relevance, which make them better suited for use in the pharmacological and toxicological assays required for development of stem cell-based treatments and the reduction of animal use in medical research.