Simulation of crop yields using ERA-40: Limits to skill and nonstationarity in weather-yield relationships

Reanalysis data provide an excellent test bed for impacts prediction systems. because they represent an upper limit on the skill of climate models. Indian groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) yields have been simulated using the General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40). The ability of ERA-40 to represent the Indian summer monsoon has been examined. The ability of GLAM. when driven with daily ERA-40 data, to model both observed yields and observed relationships between subseasonal weather and yield has been assessed. Mean yields "were simulated well across much of India. Correlations between observed and modeled yields, where these are significant. are comparable to correlations between observed yields and ERA-40 rainfall. Uncertainties due to the input planting window, crop duration, and weather data have been examined. A reduction in the root-mean-square error of simulated yields was achieved by applying bias correction techniques to the precipitation. The stability of the relationship between weather and yield over time has been examined. Weather-yield correlations vary on decadal time scales. and this has direct implications for the accuracy of yield simulations. Analysis of the skewness of both detrended yields and precipitation suggest that nonclimatic factors are partly responsible for this nonstationarity. Evidence from other studies, including data on cereal and pulse yields, indicates that this result is not particular to groundnut yield. The detection and modeling of nonstationary weather-yield relationships emerges from this study as an important part of the process of understanding and predicting the impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Pea-barley intercropping for efficient symbiotic N-2-fixation, soil N acquisition and use of other nutrients in European organic cropping systems

Complementarity in acquisition of nitrogen (N) from soil and N-2-fixation within pea and barley intercrops was studied in organic field experiments across Western Europe (Denmark, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy). Spring pea and barley were sown either as sole crops, at the recommended plant density (P100 and B100, respectively) or in replacement (P50B50) or additive (P100B50) intercropping designs, in each of three cropping seasons (2003-2005). Irrespective of site and intercrop design, Land Equivalent Ratios (LER) between 1.4 at flowering and 1.3 at maturity showed that total N recovery was greater in the pea-barley intercrops than in the sole Crops Suggesting a high degree of complementarity over a wide range of growing conditions. Complementarity was partly attributed to greater soil mineral N acquisition by barley, forcing pea to rely more on N-2-fixation. At all sites the proportion of total aboveground pea N that was derived from N-2-fixation was greater when intercropped with barley than when grown as a sole crop. No consistent differences were found between the two intercropping designs. Simultaneously, the accumulation Of Phosphorous (P), potassium (K) and sulphur (S) in Danish and German experiments was 20% higher in the intercrop (P50B50) than in the respective sole crops, possibly influencing general crop yields and thereby competitive ability for other resources. Comparing all sites and seasons, the benefits of organic pea-barley intercropping for N acquisition were highly resilient. It is concluded that pea-barley intercropping is a relevant cropping strategy to adopt when trying to optimize N-2-fixation inputs to the cropping system. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The distinct contributions of age of acquisition and word frequency in auditory word perception

We report two studies of the distinct effects that a word's age of acquisition (AoA) and frequency have on the mental lexicon. In the first study, a purely statistical analysis, we show that AoA and frequency are related in different ways to the phonological form and imageability of different words. In the second study, three groups of participants (34 seven-year-olds, 30 ten-year-olds, and 17 adults) took part in an auditory lexical decision task, with stimuli varying in AoA, frequency, length, neighbourhood density, and imageability. The principal result is that the influence of these different variables changes as a function of AoA: Neighbourhood density effects are apparent for early and late AoA words, but not for intermediate AoA, whereas imageability effects are apparent for intermediate AoA words but not for early or late AoA. These results are discussed from the perspective that AoA affects a word's representation, but frequency affects processing biases.

Deficient acquisition and consolidation: intertrial free recall performance in Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment

Previous research demonstrates that dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT) is characterised by deficits of episodic memory, especially in the acquisition of new material. As well as this deficit in acquisition, some researchers have also argued for a deficit in consolidation in DAT. We examined acquisition and consolidation by measuring the intertrial gained and lost access in DAT, Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and controls. We report findings from a study of clinical data based on assessment of patients using three free recall trials of a word list. We found that both DAT and MCI groups showed a deficit in acquisition and consolidation of items between trials relative to controls. Moreover, the DAT group was significantly impaired relative to the MCI group for both acquisition and consolidation. Correlations within each group showed that there were strong relationships between intertrial measures and standard measures of memory function. Importantly in no group was there a significant correlation between our measures of acquisition and consolidation: we argue that these measures reflect different underlying processes, and the failure to consolidate in DAT and MCI is not related to the deficit in acquisition. Finally, we showed strong correlations between our measure and dementia severity, suggesting that acquisition and consolidation both get worse as the dementia progresses.

Drivers' ratings of different components of their own driving skill: a greater illusion of superiority for skills that relate to accident involvement

Different components of driving skill relate to accident involvement in different ways. For instance, while hazard-perception skill has been found to predict accident involvement, vehicle-control skill has not. We found that drivers rated themselves superior to both their peers and the average driver on 18 components of driving skill (N = 181 respondents). These biases were greater for hazard-perception skills than for either vehicle-control skills or driving skill in general. Also, ratings of hazard-perception skill related to self-perceived safety after overall skill was controlled for. We suggest that although drivers appear to appreciate the role of hazard perception in safe driving, any safety benefit to be derived from this appreciation may be undermined by drivers' inflated opinions of their own hazard-perception skill. We also tested the relationship between illusory beliefs about driving skill and risk taking and looked at ways of manipulating drivers' illusory beliefs.

A cost-effective high-throughput digital system for observation and acquisition of animal behavioral data

We have designed and implemented a low-cost digital system using closed-circuit television cameras coupled to a digital acquisition system for the recording of in vivo behavioral data in rodents and for allowing observation and recording of more than 10 animals simultaneously at a reduced cost, as compared with commercially available solutions. This system has been validated using two experimental rodent models: one involving chemically induced seizures and one assessing appetite and feeding. We present observational results showing comparable or improved levels of accuracy and observer consistency between this new system and traditional methods in these experimental models, discuss advantages of the presented system over conventional analog systems and commercially available digital systems, and propose possible extensions to the system and applications to non-rodent studies.

Acquisition of automatic imitation is sensitive to sensorimotor contingency

The associative sequence learning model proposes that the development of the mirror system depends on the same mechanisms of associative learning that mediate Pavlovian and instrumental conditioning. To test this model, two experiments used the reduction of automatic imitation through incompatible sensorimotor training to assess whether mirror system plasticity is sensitive to contingency (i.e., the extent to which activation of one representation predicts activation of another). In Experiment 1, residual automatic imitation was measured following incompatible training in which the action stimulus was a perfect predictor of the response (contingent) or not at all predictive of the response (noncontingent). A contingency effect was observed: There was less automatic imitation indicative of more learning in the contingent group. Experiment 2 replicated this contingency effect and showed that, as predicted by associative learning theory, it can be abolished by signaling trials in which the response occurs in the absence of an action stimulus. These findings support the view that mirror system development depends on associative learning and indicate that this learning is not purely Hebbian. If this is correct, associative learning theory could be used to explain, predict, and intervene in mirror system development.