Simulation models in farming systems research : potential and challenges

Integrated simulation models can be useful tools in farming system research. This chapter reviews three commonly used approaches, i.e. linear programming, system dynamics and agent-based models. Applications of each approach are presented and strengths and drawbacks discussed. We argue that, despite some challenges, mainly related to the integration of different approaches, model validation and the representation of human agents, integrated simulation models contribute important insights to the analysis of farming systems. They help unravelling the complex and dynamic interactions and feedbacks among bio-physical, socio-economic, and institutional components across scales and levels in farming systems. In addition, they can provide a platform for integrative research, and can support transdisciplinary research by functioning as learning platforms in participatory processes.

Simulation of a domestic ground source heat pump system using a three-dimensional numerical borehole heat exchanger model

Common approaches to the simulation of borehole heat exchangers (BHEs) assume heat transfer in circulating fluid and grout to be in a quasi-steady state and ignore fluctuations in fluid temperature due to transport of the fluid around the loop. However, in domestic ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems, the heat pump and circulating pumps switch on and off during a given hour; therefore, the effect of the thermal mass of the circulating fluid and the dynamics of fluid transport through the loop has important implications for system design. This may also be important in commercial systems that are used intermittently. This article presents transient simulation of a domestic GSHP system with a single BHE using a dynamic three-dimensional (3D) numerical BHE model. The results show that delayed response associated with the transit of fluid along the pipe loop is of some significance in moderating swings in temperature during heat pump operation. In addition, when 3D effects are considered, a lower heat transfer rate is predicted during steady operations. These effects could be important when considering heat exchanger design and system control. The results will be used to develop refined two-dimensional models.

Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part I: the representation of the MJO

As a major mode of intraseasonal variability, which interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale, the Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a crucial source of predictability for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Despite its global significance and comprehensive investigation, improvements in the representation of the MJO in an NWP context remain elusive. However, recent modifications to the model physics in the ECMWF model led to advances in the representation of atmospheric variability and the unprecedented propagation of the MJO signal through the entire integration period. In light of these recent advances, a set of hindcast experiments have been designed to assess the sensitivity of MJO simulation to the formulation of convection. Through the application of established MJO diagnostics, it is shown that the improvements in the representation of the MJO can be directly attributed to the modified convective parametrization. Furthermore, the improvements are attributed to the move from a moisture-convergent- to a relative-humidity-dependent formulation for organized deep entrainment. It is concluded that, in order to understand the physical mechanisms through which a relative-humidity-dependent formulation for entrainment led to an improved simulation of the MJO, a more process-based approach should be taken. T he application of process-based diagnostics t o t he hindcast experiments presented here will be the focus of Part II of this study.

Simulation of hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model

A study of intense hurricane-type vortices in the ECMWF operational model is reported. These vortices develop around day 4 in the forecast and occur in the tropical belt in areas and at times where intense tropical cyclones normally occur. The frequency resembles that observed over most tropical regions with a pronounced maximum in the western North Pacific. The life time of the vortices and their 3-dimensional structure agree in some fundamental way with observations although, because of the resolution, the systems are less intense than the observed ones. The general large-scale conditions for active and inactive cyclone periods are discussed. The model cyclones are sensitive to the sea-surface temperature and do not develop with sea surface temperatures lower than 28–29°C. The dynamical conditions favouring cyclone development are characterized by intense large-scale divergence in the upper troposphere. Cyclogenesis appears to take place when these conditions are found outside the equatorial zone and over oceans where the water is sufficiently warm.

Effects of spatial resolution in the simulation of daily and subdaily precipitation in the southwestern US

We evaluate the effects of spatial resolution on the ability of a regional climate model to reproduce observed extreme precipitation for a region in the Southwestern United States. A total of 73 National Climate Data Center observational sites spread throughout Arizona and New Mexico are compared with regional climate simulations at the spatial resolutions of 50 km and 10 km for a 31 year period from 1980 to 2010. We analyze mean, 3-hourly and 24-hourly extreme precipitation events using WRF regional model simulations driven by NCEP-2 reanalysis. The mean climatological spatial structure of precipitation in the Southwest is well represented by the 10 km resolution but missing in the coarse (50 km resolution) simulation. However, the fine grid has a larger positive bias in mean summer precipitation than the coarse-resolution grid. The large overestimation in the simulation is in part due to scale-dependent deficiencies in the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme that generate excessive precipitation and induce a slow eastward propagation of the moist convective summer systems in the high-resolution simulation. Despite this overestimation in the mean, the 10 km simulation captures individual extreme summer precipitation events better than the 50 km simulation. In winter, however, the two simulations appear to perform equally in simulating extremes.

CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.

Nonlinear equalization of Hammerstein OFDM systems

A practical orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) system can generally be modelled by the Hammerstein system that includes the nonlinear distortion effects of the high power amplifier (HPA) at transmitter. In this contribution, we advocate a novel nonlinear equalization scheme for OFDM Hammerstein systems. We model the nonlinear HPA, which represents the static nonlinearity of the OFDM Hammerstein channel, by a B-spline neural network, and we develop a highly effective alternating least squares algorithm for estimating the parameters of the OFDM Hammerstein channel, including channel impulse response coefficients and the parameters of the B-spline model. Moreover, we also use another B-spline neural network to model the inversion of the HPA’s nonlinearity, and the parameters of this inverting B-spline model can easily be estimated using the standard least squares algorithm based on the pseudo training data obtained as a byproduct of the Hammerstein channel identification. Equalization of the OFDM Hammerstein channel can then be accomplished by the usual one-tap linear equalization as well as the inverse B-spline neural network model obtained. The effectiveness of our nonlinear equalization scheme for OFDM Hammerstein channels is demonstrated by simulation results.

Understanding advances in the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a numerical weather prediction model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

Simulation of the diurnal cycle in a climate model and its evaluation using data from Meteosat 7

The representation of the diurnal cycle in the Hadley Centre climate model is evaluated using simulations of the infrared radiances observed by Meteosat 7. In both the window and water vapour channels, the standard version of the model with 19 levels produces a good simulation of the geographical distributions of the mean radiances and of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle. Increasing the vertical resolution to 30 levels leads to further improvements in the mean fields. The timing of the maximum and minimum radiances reveals significant model errors, however, which are sensitive to the frequency with which the radiation scheme is called. In most regions, these errors are consistent with well documented errors in the timing of convective precipitation, which peaks before noon in the model, in contrast to the observed peak in the late afternoon or evening. When the radiation scheme is called every model time step (half an hour), as opposed to every three hours in the standard version, the timing of the minimum radiance is improved for convective regions over central Africa, due to the creation of upper-level layer-cloud by detrainment from the convection scheme, which persists well after the convection itself has dissipated. However, this produces a decoupling between the timing of the diurnal cycles of precipitation and window channel radiance. The possibility is raised that a similar decoupling may occur in reality and the implications of this for the retrieval of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from infrared radiances are discussed.

Numerical simulation of baroclinic waves with a parameterized boundary layer

A dry three-dimensional baroclinic life cycle model is used to investigate the role of turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum within the boundary layer on mid-latitude cyclones. Simulations are performed of life cycles for two basic states, both with and without turbulent fluxes. The different basic states produce cyclones with contrasting frontal and mesoscale-flow structures. The analysis focuses on the generation of potential-vorticity (PV) in the boundary layer and its subsequent transport into the free troposphere. The dynamic mechanism through which friction mitigates a barotropic vortex is that of Ekman pumping. This has often been assumed to be also the dominant mechanism for baroclinic developments. The PV framework highlights an additional, baroclinic mechanism. Positive PV is generated baroclinically due to friction to the north-east of a surface low and is transported out of the boundary layer by a cyclonic conveyor belt flow. The result is an anomaly of increased static stability in the lower troposphere which restricts the growth of the baroclinic wave. The reduced coupling between lower and upper levels can be sufficient to change the character of the upper-level evolution of the mature wave. The basic features of the baroclinic damping mechanism are robust for different frontal structures, with and without turbulent heat fluxes, and for the range of surface roughness found over the oceans.

Improved simulation of water vapour and clear-sky radiation using 24 hour forecasts from ERA40

Monthly mean water vapour and clear-sky radiation extracted from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) forecasts are assessed using satellite observations and additional reanalysis data. There is a marked improvement in the interannual variability of column-integrated water vapour (CWV) over the oceans when using the 24-hour forecasts compared with the standard 6-hour forecasts products. The spatial distribution of CWV are well simulated by the 6-hour forecasts; using the 24-hour forecasts does not degrade this simulation substantially and in many cases improves on the quality. There is also an improved simulation of clear-sky radiation from the 24-hour forecasts compared with the 6-hour forecasts based on comparison with satellite observations and empirical estimates. Further work is required to assess the quality of water vapour simulation by reanalyses over land regions. Over the oceans, it is recommended that 24-hour forecasts of CWV and clear-sky radiation are used in preference to the standard 6-hour forecast products from ERA40