Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe

Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for ‘calibrating’ climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a ‘perfect sibling’ framework. Crucially, this type of analysis assesses the ability of each calibration methodology to produce reliable estimates of future climate, which is not possible just using historical observations. This type of approach could be more widely adopted for assessing calibration methodologies for crop modelling. The calibration methods assessed include the commonly used ‘delta’ (change factor) and ‘nudging’ (bias correction) approaches. We focus on daily maximum temperature in summer over Europe for this idealised case study, but the methods can be generalised to other variables and other regions. The calibration methods, which are relatively easy to implement given appropriate observations, produce more robust projections of future daily maximum temperatures and heat stress than using raw model output. The choice over which calibration method to use will likely depend on the situation, but change factor approaches tend to perform best in our examples. Finally, we demonstrate that the uncertainty due to the choice of calibration methodology is a significant contributor to the total uncertainty in future climate projections for impact studies. We conclude that utilising a variety of calibration methods on output from a wide range of AOGCMs is essential to produce climate data that will ensure robust and reliable crop yield projections.

Dietary supplementation with Bifidobacterium lactis NCC2818 from weaning reduces local immunoglobulin production in lymphoid-associated tissues but increases systemic antibodies in healthy neonates

Weaning is associated with a major shift in the microbial community of the intestine, and this instability may make it more acquiescent than the adult microbiota to long-term changes. Modulation achieved through dietary interventions may have potentially beneficial effects on the developing immune system, which is driven primarily by the microbiota. The specific aim of the present study was to determine whether immune development could be modified by dietary supplementation with the human probiotic Bifidobacterium lactis NCC2818 in a tractable model of weaning in infants. Piglets were reared by their mothers before being weaned onto a solid diet supplemented with B. lactis NCC2818, while sibling controls did not receive supplementation. Probiotic supplementation resulted in a reduction in IgA (P,0·0005) and IgM (P,0·009) production by mucosal tissues but had no effect on IgG production (P.0·05). Probiotic- supplemented pigs had more mast cells than unsupplemented littermates (P,0·0001), although numbers in both groups were low. In addition, the supplemented piglets made stronger serum IgG responses to fed and injected antigens (P,0·05). The present findings are consistent with B. lactis NCC2818 reducing intestinal permeability induced by weaning, and suggest that the piglet is a valuable intermediate between rodent models and human infants. The results also strongly suggest that measures of the effect of probiotic supplementation on the immune system need to be interpreted carefully as proxy measures of health benefit. However, they are useful in developing an understanding of the mechanism of action of probiotic strains, an important factor in predicting favourable health outcomes of nutritional intervention.

Parental death as a vital conjuncture? Intergenerational care and responsibility following bereavement in Senegal

This article explores the ways that parental death represents a 'vital conjuncture' for Serer young people that reconfigures and potentially transforms intergenerational caring responsibilities in different spatial and temporal contexts. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with young people (aged 15-27), family members, religious and community leaders and professionals in rural and urban Senegal, I explore young people's responses to parental death. 'Continuing bonds' with the deceased were expressed through memories evoked in homespace, shared family practices and gendered responsibilities to 'take care of' bereaved family members, to cultivate inherited farmland and to fulfil the wishes of the deceased. Parental death could reconfigure intergenerational care and lead to shifts in power dynamics, as eldest sons asserted their position of authority. While care-giving roles were associated with agency, the low social status accorded to young women's paid and unpaid domestic work undermined their efforts. The research contributes to understandings of gendered nuances in the experience of bereavement and continuing bonds and provides insight into intra-household decision-making processes, ownership and control of assets. Analysis of the culturally specific meanings of relationships and a young person's social location within hierarchies of gender, age, sibling birth order and wider socio-cultural norms and practices is needed.

Students’ perception of privacy risks in using social networking sites for learning: a study of Uganda Christian University

Although social networking sites (SNSs) present a great deal of opportunities to support learning, the privacy risk is perceived by learners as a friction point that affects their full use for learning. Privacy risks in SNSs can be divided into risks that are posed by the SNS provider itself and risks that result from user’s social interactions. Using an online survey questionnaire, this study explored the students’ perception of the benefits in using social networking sites for learning purposes and their perceived privacy risks. A sample of 214 students from Uganda Christian University in Africa was studied. The results show that although 88 % of participants indicated the usefulness of SNSs for learning, they are also aware of the risks associated with these sites. Most of the participants are concerned with privacy risks such as identity theft, cyber bullying, and impersonation that might influence their online learning participation in SNSs.

Fighting in fig wasps: do males avoid killing brothers or do they never meet them?

1. In many fig wasp species, armoured wingless males regularly engage in lethal fights for access to females inside figs, which act as discrete mating patches. 2. Kin selection generally opposes killing brothers, because their reproductive success provides indirect genetic benefits (inclusive fitness). However, siblicide may be avoided if (i) brothers do not occur in the same figs, or (ii) males avoid fighting brothers in the same fig. Alternatively, (iii) siblicide may occur because intense mate competition between brothers at the local scale overcomes kin selection effects, or (iv) males do not recognise kin. 3. A fig may also contain wasps from other closely related species and it is not known if males also fight with these individuals. 4. Nine microsatellite loci were used in the first genetic analysis of fighting in fig wasps. We assigned species and sibling identities to males and tested alternative fighting scenarios for three Sycoscapter wasp species in figs of Ficus rubiginosa. 5. Approximately 60% of figs contained males frommore than one Sycoscapter species and approximately 80% of fights were between conspecifics, but a surprising 20% were between heterospecific males. 6.Within species, fewfigs contained brothers, suggesting that females typically lay one son per fig. Overall, most males do not compete with brothers and all fights observed were between unrelated males. Key words:Competition, fighting, genetics, kin selection, microsatellites, relatedness.