Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

The effect of ram replacement and sex ratio on the sexual response of anoestrous ewes

It is accepted that an important source of variation in the response of anoestrous ewes, to the introduction of rams, is the intensity of male stimulation. The aim of this study was to investigate strategies capable of increasing the impact and transmission of the ram stimuli. In Experiment 1, two groups of seven ewes (Bluefaced Leicester male x Swaledale female) were individually penned with one ram and for the next 6 h the rams either remained in the pen or were replaced hourly. Blood samples revealed no difference in the pattern of plasma LH secretion. In Experiment 2, three groups of 16 ewes were either introduced to one ram, individually (H) or in groups of 8 (L), or remained isolated. Ram introduction increased the plasma LH pulsatility (P < 0.001). H ewes displayed more (nine versus six) male-induced LH pulses (pulses occurring within the first 45 min) and more pulses per 8 h intervals than the L group of ewes (1.9 +/- 0.3 versus 1.3 +/- 0.3), but these differences were not significant. It was concluded that (i) frequent replacement of rams within a few hours following ram introduction to ewes does not further improve the response of ewes, especially if the ram:ewe ratio is high; (ii) the characterization of the plasma LH secretion parameters during a period of 6-8 h does not seem to be an effective method to detect small differences in the intensity of stimulation received by the ewes when exposed to rams; (iii) North Country Mule ewes (Bluefaced Leicester male x Swaledale female) in the UK respond to the presence of rams in spring (late oestrous/early anoestrous season) with an elevation in plasma LH secretion. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring teachers' knowledge of children's literature

In the context of the current debate about teaching reading, research to ascertain primary teachers' personal and professional reading practices was undertaken. The study explored teachers' reading habits and preferences, investigated their knowledge of children's literature, and documented their reported use of such texts and involvement with library services. Questionnaire responses were gathered from 1200 teachers. The data were analysed and connections made between the teachers' own reading habits and preferences, their knowledge of children's literature, their accessing practices and pedagogic use of literature in school. This paper reports on part of the dataset and focuses on teachers' knowledge of children's literature; it reveals that primary professionals lean on a narrow repertoire of authors, poets and picture fiction creators. It also discusses teachers' personal reading preferences and considers divergences and connections between these as well as the implications of the teachers' limited repertoires on the reading development of young learners.

Assessing reading at Key Stage 2: SATs as measures of children's inferential abilities

This article describes two studies. The first study was designed to investigate the ways in which the statutory assessments of reading for 11-year-old children in England assess inferential abilities. The second study was designed to investigate the levels of performance achieved in these tests in 2001 and 2002 by 11-year-old children attending state-funded local authority schools in one London borough. In the first study, content and questions used in the reading papers for the Standard Assessment Tasks (SATs) in the years 2001 and 2002 were analysed to see what types of inference were being assessed. This analysis suggested that the complexity involved in inference making and the variety of inference types that are made during the reading process are not adequately sampled in the SATs. Similar inadequacies are evident in the ways in which the programmes of study for literacy recommended by central government deal with inference. In the second study, scripts of completed SATs reading papers for 2001 and 2002 were analysed to investigate the levels of inferential ability evident in scripts of children achieving different SATs levels. The analysis in this article suggests that children who only just achieve the 'target' Level 4 do so with minimal use of inference skills. They are particularly weak in making inferences that require the application of background knowledge. Thus, many children who achieve the reading level (Level 4) expected of 11-year-olds are entering secondary education with insecure inference-making skills that have not been recognised.

Differences between the gut microflora of children with autistic spectrum disorders and that of healthy children

Children with autistic spectrum disorders (ASDs) tend to suffer from severe gastrointestinal problems. Such symptoms may be due to a disruption of the indigenous gut flora promoting the overgrowth of potentially pathogenic micro-organisms. The faecal flora of patients with ASDs was studied and compared with those of two control groups (healthy siblings and unrelated healthy children). Faecal bacterial populations were assessed through the use of a culture-independent technique, fluorescence in situ hybridization, using oligonucleotide probes targeting predominant components of the gut flora. The faecal flora of ASD patients contained a higher incidence of the Clostridium histolyticum group (Clostridium clusters I and 11) of bacteria than that of healthy children. However, the non-autistic sibling group had an intermediate level of the C. histolyticum group, which was not significantly different from either of the other subject groups. Members of the C. histolyticum group are recognized toxin-producers and may contribute towards gut dysfunction, with their metabolic products also exerting systemic effects. Strategies to reduce clostridial population levels harboured by ASD patients or to improve their gut microflora profile through dietary modulation may help to alleviate gut disorders common in such patients.

Problems in the coupling of eye and hand in the sequential movements of children with developmental coordination disorder

Background: Shifting gaze and attention ahead of the hand is a natural component in the performance of skilled manual actions. Very few studies have examined the precise co-ordination between the eye and hand in children with Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD). Methods This study directly assessed the maturity of eye-hand co-ordination in children with DCD. A double-step pointing task was used to investigate the coupling of the eye and hand in 7-year-old children with and without DCD. Sequential targets were presented on a computer screen, and eye and hand movements were recorded simultaneously. Results There were no differences between typically developing (TD) and DCD groups when completing fast single-target tasks. There were very few differences in the completion of the first movement in the double-step tasks, but differences did occur during the second sequential movement. One factor appeared to be the propensity for the DCD children to delay their hand movement until some period after the eye had landed on the target. This resulted in a marked increase in eye-hand lead during the second movement, disrupting the close coupling and leading to a slower and less accurate hand movement among children with DCD. Conclusions In contrast to skilled adults, both groups of children preferred to foveate the target prior to initiating a hand movement if time allowed. The TD children, however, were more able to reduce this foveation period and shift towards a feedforward mode of control for hand movements. The children with DCD persevered with a look-then-move strategy, which led to an increase in error. For the group of DCD children in this study, there was no evidence of a problem in speed or accuracy of simple movements, but there was a difficulty in concatenating the sequential shifts of gaze and hand required for the completion of everyday tasks or typical assessment items.

Intonation abilities of children with Williams syndrome: a preliminary investigation

Purpose: The authors investigated expressive and receptive intonation abilities in children with Williams syndrome (WS) and the relation of these abilities to other linguistic abilities. Method: Fourteen children with WS, 14 typically developing children matched to the WS group for receptive language (LA), and 15 typically developing children matched to the WS group for chronological age (CA) were compared on a range of receptive and expressive intonation tasks from the Profiling Elements of Prosodic Systems-Child version (PEPS-C) battery. Results: The WS group performed similarly to the LA group on all intonation tasks apart from the long-item imitation task, on which the WS group scored significantly lower than the LA group. When compared with the CA group, the WS group was significantly poorer on all aspects of intonation. Whereas there were a number of significant correlations between the intonation and language measures in the control groups, in the WS group, there was only 1 significant correlation between a PEPS-C task and one of the language measures. Conclusion: As a result of this study, the authors concluded that children with WS have expressive and receptive intonation abilities as expected for their level of language comprehension and that intonation and other linguistic abilities in WS are not strongly related.

The development of children of postnatally depressed mothers: evidence from the Cambridge longitudinal study

Children with a parent who suffers from depression are at raised risk for the disorder themselves. Relatively little is known about the development of psychological vulnerability to depression through childhood, particularly during infancy and early childhood. This paper describes results from a longitudinal prospective study of the development of children, studied from birth to 16 years, of mothers who experienced postnatal depression; it highlights the roles of the developing mother-child relationship, and of physiological functioning and social relationships in the development of adolescent vulnerability.

Sibling interaction of children with autism: development over 12 months

While deficits in social interaction are central to autism, the sibling relationship has been found to provide a key medium for the development of such skills. Naturalistic observations of sibling pairs including children with autism and controls with Down syndrome were made across two time periods, twelve months apart. Consistent with the evidence on typically developing children, the amount and rate of initiations of both prosocial and agonistic interaction increased, but further analysis suggested that these interactions were stage-managed by the typically developing children. Results show social interaction and imitation in children with autism and the special role that sibling interactions can play. Longitudinal research on the acquisition of social skills in children with developmental disabilities is needed.

Sibgroups: supporting siblings of children on the autism spectrum

A clinical psychologist describes four sibling support groups (Sibgroups) set up in Berkshire and Scotland. These were weekly groups for brothers and sisters of children on the autism spectrum. The article provides details of the content of the sessions and the instruments used to measure participants' views on autism and their relationship with their brother of sister. It also provides ideas on how to elicit their views and on the areas in which they may require knowledge and support.

Impairment in movement skills of children with autistic spectrum disorders

We undertook this study to explore the degree of impairment in movement skills in children with autistic spectrum disorders (ASD) and a wide IQ range. Movement skills were measured using the Movement Assessment Battery for Children (M-ABC) in a large, well defined, population-derived group of children (n=101: 89 males,12 females; mean age 11y 4mo, SD 10mo; range 10y-14y 3mo) with childhood autism and broader ASD and a wide range of IQ scores. Additionally, we tested whether a parent-completed questionnaire, the Developmental Coordination Disorder Questionnaire (DCDQ), was useful in identifying children who met criteria for movement impairments after assessment (n=97 with complete M-ABCs and DCDQs). Of the children with ASD, 79% had definite movement impairments on the M-ABC; a further 10% had borderline problems. Children with childhood autism were more impaired than children with broader ASD, and children with an IQ less than 70 were more impaired than those with IQ more than 70. This is consistent with the view that movement impairments may arise from a more severe neurological impairment that also contributes to intellectual disability and more severe autism. Movement impairment was not associated with everyday adaptive behaviour once the effect of IQ was controlled for. The DCDQ performed moderately well as a screen for possible motor difficulties. Movement impairments are common in children with ASD. Systematic assessment of movement abilities should be considered a routine investigation.

Affective disorder in the parents of a clinic sample of children with anxiety disorders

Background: Family history studies in adults reveal strong familiality for the anxiety disorders with some specificity. The aim of the current study was to establish whether there was an elevated rate of anxiety disorders in the parents of children with anxiety disorders, and whether there was intergenerational specificity in the form of disorder. Methods: The mental state of a clinic sample of 85 children with anxiety disorder and their parents was systematically assessed, together with a comparison sample of 45 children with no current disorder and their parents. Results: Compared to the rate of anxiety disorder amongst parents of comparison children, the rate of current anxiety disorder in mothers of anxious children was significantly raised, as was the lifetime rate of anxiety disorder for both mothers and fathers. The mothers of children with generalised anxiety disorder, social phobia, specific phobia and separation anxiety disorder all had raised lifetime rates of the corresponding disorder, but also raised rates of others disorders. Limitations: Only 60% of the fathers of the anxious children were assessed. Conclusions: Strong familiality of anxiety disorders was confirmed, especially between child and maternal anxiety disorder. All child anxiety disorders were associated with several forms of anxiety disorder in the mother. Some specificity in the form of anxiety disorder in the child and the mother was apparent for social phobia and separation anxiety disorder. The findings have implications for the management of child anxiety. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.