Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa

[ 1] There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes, especially from developing countries. We report the results of the analysis of daily temperature ( maximum and minimum) and precipitation data from 14 south and west African countries over the period 1961 - 2000. Data were subject to quality control and processing into indices of climate extremes for release to the global community. Temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming over most of the regions analyzed, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Over 1961 to 2000, the regionally averaged occurrence of extreme cold ( fifth percentile) days and nights has decreased by - 3.7 and - 6.0 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme hot (95th percentile) days and nights has increased by 8.2 and 8.6 days/decade, respectively. The average duration of warm ( cold) has increased ( decreased) by 2.4 (0.5) days/decade and warm spells. Overall, it appears that the hot tails of the distributions of daily maximum temperature have changed more than the cold tails; for minimum temperatures, hot tails show greater changes in the NW of the region, while cold tails have changed more in the SE and east. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) does not exhibit a consistent trend across the region, with many neighboring stations showing opposite trends. However, the DTR shows consistent increases in a zone across Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, and Mozambique, coinciding with more rapid increases in maximum temperature than minimum temperature extremes. Most precipitation indices do not exhibit consistent or statistically significant trends across the region. Regionally averaged total precipitation has decreased but is not statistically significant. At the same time, there has been a statistically significant increase in regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity and dry spell duration. While the majority of stations also show increasing trends for these two indices, only a few of these are statistically significant. There are increasing trends in regionally averaged rainfall on extreme precipitation days and in maximum annual 5-day and 1-day rainfall, but only trends for the latter are statistically significant.

Recent trends in sea level pressure in the Indian Ocean region

During the second half of the twentieth century the Indian Ocean exhibited a rapid rise in sea surface temperatures (SST). It has been argued - largely on the basis of experiments with atmospheric GCMs - that this rapid warming was an important cause of remote changes in climate, in particular an increasing trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and decreases in African rainfall. Here however we present evidence that the Indian Ocean warming was associated with local increases in sea level pressure (SLP). These increases are inconsistent with results from experiments in which an atmospheric GCM is forced by historical SST, which show robust decreases in SLP. The clear discrepancy between the observed and simulated trends in SLP suggests that the response of some atmospheric GCMs to the Indian Ocean warming may not provide a reliable guide to the behaviour of the real world.

Performance of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 global ocean-atmosphere coupled model

The climatology of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 coupled general circulation model (GCM) is presented. The atmosphere GCM has a T21 spectral truncation and the ocean GCM has a 2°×1.5° average resolution. A 50-year climatic simulation is performed using the OASIS coupler, without flux correction techniques. The mean state and seasonal cycle for the last 10 years of the experiment are described and compared to the corresponding uncoupled experiments and to climatology when available. The model reasonably simulates most of the basic features of the observed climate. Energy budgets and transports in the coupled system, of importance for climate studies, are assessed and prove to be within available estimates. After an adjustment phase of a few years, the model stabilizes around a mean state where the tropics are warm and resemble a permanent ENSO, the Southern Ocean warms and almost no sea-ice is left in the Southern Hemisphere. The atmospheric circulation becomes more zonal and symmetric with respect to the equator. Once those systematic errors are established, the model shows little secular drift, the small remaining trends being mainly associated to horizontal physics in the ocean GCM. The stability of the model is shown to be related to qualities already present in the uncoupled GCMs used, namely a balanced radiation budget at the top-of-the-atmosphere and a tight ocean thermocline.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.