Financing road transport infrastructure

In the UK, public expenditure on transport infrastructure is nearly £6 billion for the past few years. Over £500 million per year were spent on bridge assessment and strengthening and reducing the backlog of road requiring maintenance. A further £200 million a year will be spent on keeping the safe operation of the network and efficiently through day to day maintenance, lighting and signing . The Department of Transport is planning to extend private sector experience in road management and operation by introducing Design, Build, Finance and Operate (DBFO) This paper investigates the different ways of financing road transport infrastructure including road pricing, private finance in transport infrastructure, the role of the private sector, Design, Build, Finance and Operate (DBFO) schemes, the benefits and problems of such schemes. The paper considers planning gain as a means of financing transport infrastructure with examples of developers to fund link road building and improvements to the local planning system

Dog in a doublet bridge reconstruction: a case study

Dog-in-a-Doublet Bridge Reconstruction Scheme integrates the interdisciplinary design to provide solution for different needs: to provide a crossing to carry the new 40-tonne loading requirement, to improve the visibility of the substandard junction, and within the funding available. The management of the project involves the co-ordination of different authorities, statutory undertakers and other bodies. At certain stages, there were negotiations with RSPB on the restriction of construction period from July to November. After the re-assessment of the environmental impact of the construction on the breeding and wintering birds, the restrict was waived. As the bid for the assessment, strengthening and structural maintenance of bridges in the Cambridgeshire County Council Transport Policies and Programme No. 21 (1995/96) for Dog-in-a-Doublet Bridge Reconstruction Schemes was unsuccessful to attract the Transport Supplement Grant (TSG). A series of temporary measures had to be undertaken until funding is available for its replacement.

Seasonal and interannual variability in the Mozambique Channel from moored current observations

Direct observations from an array of current meter moorings across the Mozambique Channel in the south-west Indian Ocean are presented covering a period of more than 4 years. This allows an analysis of the volume transport through the channel, including the variability on interannual and seasonal time scales. The mean volume transport over the entire observational period is 16.7 Sv poleward. Seasonal variations have a magnitude of 4.1 Sv and can be explained from the variability in the wind field over the western part of the Indian Ocean. Interannual variability has a magnitude of 8.9 Sv and is large compared to the mean. This time scale of variability could be related to variability in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), showing that it forms part of the variability in the ocean-climate system of the entire Indian Ocean. By modulating the strength of the South Equatorial Current, the weakening (strengthening) tropical gyre circulation during a period of positive (negative) IOD index leads to a weakened (strengthened) southward transport through the channel, with a time lag of about a year. The relatively strong interannual variability stresses the importance of long-term direct observations.

A link between low-frequency mesoscale eddy variability around Madagascar and the large-scale Indian Ocean variability

A connection is shown to exist between the mesoscale eddy activity around Madagascar and the large-scale interannual variability in the Indian Ocean. We use the combined TOPEX/Poseidon-ERS sea surface height (SSH) data for the period 1993–2003. The SSH-fields in the Mozambique Channel and east of Madagascar exhibit a significant interannual oscillation. This is related to the arrival of large-scale anomalies that propagate westward along 10°–15°S in response to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. Positive (negative) SSH anomalies associated to a positive (negative) IOD phase induce a shift in the intensity and position of the tropical and subtropical gyres. A weakening (strengthening) results in the intensity of the South Equatorial Current and its branches along east Madagascar. In addition, the flow through the narrows of the Mozambique Channel around 17°S increases (decreases) during periods of a stronger and northward (southward) extension of the subtropical (tropical) gyre. Interaction between the currents in the narrows and southward propagating eddies from the northern Channel leads to interannual variability in the eddy kinetic energy of the central Channel in phase with the one in the SSH-field.

Selfish genetic elements favor the evolution of a distinction between soma and germline

Many multicellular organisms have evolved a dedicated germline. This can benefit the whole organism, but its advantages to genetic parasites have not been explored. Here I model the evolutionary success of a selfish element, such as a transposable element or endosymbiont, which is capable of creating or strengthening a germline-soma distinction in a primitively multicellular host, and find that it will always benefit the element to do so. Genes causing germline sequestration can therefore spread in a population even if germline sequestration is maladaptive for the host organism. Costly selfish elements are expected to survive only in sexual populations, so sexual species may experience an additional push toward germline-soma distinction, and hence toward cell differentiation and multicellularity.

Hardening of concrete with a planned delayed ettringite formation

Delayed ettringite formation (DEF) in cementitious materials is widely considered as a harmful chemical reaction that causes extensive damages in hardened concrete. However, preventative measures and possible improvements in general are not extensively studied and require further attention. In this study was presented an investigation into a type of controlled DEF in places of finely dispersed crystallisation nuclei and provide evidence that the process may improve compressive strength of cementitious materials. The Alkali-Silica Reaction (ASR) in hydrated concrete was achieved with the addition of fly ash and was further accelerated with the Duggan’s test. Achieved strengths and monitoring of microstructure development conducted with electronic microscopy revealed that growth of ettringite crystals in the nuclei led to harmless internal compressive stresses, expansion of hydrated concrete and overall strengthening of the concrete matrix.

Effect of addition of protein fractions extracted from flours of different baking quality on gluten rheology

The effect of change of the rheological properties of gluten with the addition of fractions with specific molecular weight was investigated. Fractions extracted from Hereward, Riband and Soissons flours were added to the dough prior to gluten extraction. Once extracted, the glutens were subjected to temperature sweeps and creep recovery rheological tests. In the temperature sweeps, Hereward fractions containing the larger polypeptides had a strengthening effect on the gluten, indicated by a decrease in tan delta and an increase in elastic creep recovery, while those fractions that comprised monomeric gliadins had a weakening effect. Adding total gluten also had a strengthening effect. For the biscuit-making flour Riband, the results were quite the reverse: all fractions appeared to strengthen the gluten network, while the addition of total gluten did not have a strengthening effect. For Soissons gluten, the addition of total gluten had a strengthening effect while adding any individual fraction weakened the gluten. The results were confirmed with creep-recovery tests.

Maturation of limbic corticostriatal activation and connectivity associated with developmental changes in temporal discounting

Temporal discounting (TD) matures with age, alongside other markers of increased impulse control, and coherent, self-regulated behaviour. Discounting paradigms quantify the ability to refrain from preference of immediate rewards, in favour of delayed, larger rewards. As such, they measure temporal foresight and the ability to delay gratification, functions that develop slowly into adulthood. We investigated the neural maturation that accompanies the previously observed age-related behavioural changes in discounting, from early adolescence into mid-adulthood. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of a hypothetical discounting task with monetary rewards delayed in the week to year range. We show that age-related reductions in choice impulsivity were associated with changes in activation in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), ventral striatum (VS), insula, inferior temporal gyrus, and posterior parietal cortex. Limbic frontostriatal activation changes were specifically associated with age-dependent reductions in impulsive choice, as part of a more extensive network of brain areas showing age-related changes in activation, including dorsolateral PFC, inferior parietal cortex, and subcortical areas. The maturational pattern of functional connectivity included strengthening in activation coupling between ventromedial and dorsolateral PFC, parietal and insular cortices during selection of delayed alternatives, and between vmPFC and VS during selection of immediate alternatives. We conclude that maturational mechanisms within limbic frontostriatal circuitry underlie the observed post-pubertal reductions in impulsive choice with increasing age, and that this effect is dependent on increased activation coherence within a network of areas associated with discounting behaviour and inter-temporal decision-making.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Changes in water vapor transports of the ascending branch of the tropical circulation

Recent studies have found contradicting results on whether tropical atmospheric circulation (TAC) has intensified or weakened in recent decades. We here re-investigate recent changes in TAC derived from moisture transports into the tropics using high temporal and spatial resolution reanalyses from ERA-interim. We found a significant strengthening of both, the lower level inward transports and the mid level outward transports over the recent two decades. However the signal in the total budget is weak, because strengthening of the in and outflow neutralize each other, at least to some extent. We found atmospheric humidity to be relatively stable, so suggest that the intensification is mainly caused by an intensification of the wind related circulation strength. The exact quantitative values were found to heavily depend on whether the calculations are based on mean or instantaneous values. We highlight the importance for using the instantaneous ones for transport calculations, as they represent the coincidence of high wind speeds and high atmospheric humidity.

Inferring convective responses to El Niño with atmospheric electricity measurements at Shetland

Pacific ocean temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulate atmospheric convection and hence thunderstorm electrification. The generated current flows globally via the atmospheric electric circuit, which can be monitored anywhere on Earth. Atmospheric electricity measurements made at Shetland (in Scotland) display a mean global circuit response to ENSO that is characterized by strengthening during 'El Niño' conditions, and weakening during 'La Niña' conditions. Examining the hourly varying response indicates that a potential gradient (PG) increase around noon UT is likely to be associated with a change in atmospheric convection and resultant lightning activity over equatorial Africa and Eastern Asia. A secondary increase in PG just after midnight UT can be attributed to more shower clouds in the central Pacific ocean during an 'El Niño'.

British pharmacy professionals’ beliefs and participation in continuing professional development: a review of the literature.

Objectives Continuing professional development (CPD) has potential to be useful in pharmacy revalidation but past uptake and attitudes to CPD in Great Britain (GB) need to be mapped. This review examines published literature to chart the participation and beliefs of pharmacy professionals towards CPD in GB in a decade that had seen a formal transition from continuing education to CPD. Methods A comprehensive review of the published literature was conducted to identify studies of the uptake of, or attitudes towards, CPD cross different sectors of pharmacy in GB from 2000 to 2010. Key findings Twenty-two studies were included and analysed, including 13 research papers, six conference papers, two news items reporting survey outcomes and one commissioned study. Eight barriers to CPD were identified as: time, financial costs and resource issues, understanding of CPD, facilitation and support for CPD, motivation and interest in CPD, attitudes towards compulsory CPD, system constraints, and technical problems. Pharmacy professionals on the whole agreed with the principle of engaging with CPD but there was little evidence to suggest widespread and wholehearted acceptance and uptake of CPD, essential for revalidation. Conclusions If CPD is to succeed, people's beliefs and attitudes must be addressed by recognising and modifying perceived barriers through a combination of regulatory, professional, work-related and personal channels. A number of recommendations are made. Direct experience of effective CPD in the absence of perceived barriers could impact on personal development, career development and patient benefit thus strengthening personal beliefs in the value of CPD in an iterative manner.

British pharmacy professionals' beliefs and participation in continuing professional development: a review of the literature

Objectives:  Continuing professional development (CPD) has potential to be useful in pharmacy revalidation but past uptake and attitudes to CPD in Great Britain (GB) need to be mapped. This review examines published literature to chart the participation and beliefs of pharmacy professionals towards CPD in GB in a decade that had seen a formal transition from continuing education to CPD. Methods:  A comprehensive review of the published literature was conducted to identify studies of the uptake of, or attitudes towards, CPD cross different sectors of pharmacy in GB from 2000 to 2010. Key findings:  Twenty-two studies were included and analysed, including 13 research papers, six conference papers, two news items reporting survey outcomes and one commissioned study. Eight barriers to CPD were identified as: time, financial costs and resource issues, understanding of CPD, facilitation and support for CPD, motivation and interest in CPD, attitudes towards compulsory CPD, system constraints, and technical problems. Pharmacy professionals on the whole agreed with the principle of engaging with CPD but there was little evidence to suggest widespread and wholehearted acceptance and uptake of CPD, essential for revalidation. Conclusions:  If CPD is to succeed, people's beliefs and attitudes must be addressed by recognising and modifying perceived barriers through a combination of regulatory, professional, work-related and personal channels. A number of recommendations are made. Direct experience of effective CPD in the absence of perceived barriers could impact on personal development, career development and patient benefit thus strengthening personal beliefs in the value of CPD in an iterative manner.

Further investigation of the impact of idealised continents and SST distributions on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks

Building on studies by Brayshaw et al. (2009, 2011) of the basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track (land-sea contrast, orography and SST), this article investigates the impact of Eurasian topography and Pacific SST anomalies on the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks through a hierarchy of atmospheric GCM simulations using idealised boundary conditions in the HadGAM1 model. The Himalaya-Tibet mountain complex is found to play a crucial role in shaping the North Pacific storm track. The northward deflection of the westerly flow around northern Tibet generates an extensive pool of very cold air in the north-eastern tip of the Asian continent, which strengthens the meridional temperature gradient and favours baroclinic growth in the western Pacific. The Kuroshio SST front is also instrumental in strengthening the Pacific storm track through its impact on near-surface baroclinicity, while the warm waters around Indonesia tend to weaken it through the impact on baroclinicity of stationary Rossby waves propagating poleward from the convective heating regions. Three mechanisms by which the Atlantic storm track may be affected by changes in the boundary conditions upstream of the Rockies are discussed. In the model configuration used here, stationary Rossby waves emanating from Tibet appear to weaken the North Atlantic storm track substantially, whereas those generated over the cold waters off Peru appear to strengthen it. Changes in eddy-driven surface winds over the Pacific generally appear to modify the flow over the Rocky Mountains, leading to consistent modifications in the Atlantic storm track. The evidence for each of these mechanisms is, however, ultimately equivocal in these simulations.

Survival analysis of cereal crop variety innovations in the UK

This paper explores the changing survival patterns of cereal crop variety innovations in the UK since the introduction of plant breeders’ rights in the mid-1960s. Using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric approaches, we examine the determinants of the survival of wheat variety innovations, focusing on the impacts of changes to Plant Variety Protection (PVP) regime over the last four decades. We find that the period since the introduction of the PVP regime has been characterised by the accelerated development of new varieties and increased private sector participation in the breeding of cereal crop varieties. However, the increased flow of varieties has been accompanied by a sharp decline in the longevity of innovations. These trends may have contributed to a reduction in the returns appropriated by plant breeders from protected variety innovations and may explain the decline of conventional plant breeding in the UK. It may also explain the persistent demand from the seed industry for stronger protection. The strengthening of the PVP regime in conformity with the UPOV Convention of 1991, the introduction of EU-wide protection through the Community Plant Variety Office and the introduction of royalties on farm-saved seed have had a positive effect on the longevity of protected variety innovations, but have not been adequate to offset the long term decline in survival durations.