Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s

In the mid 1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) warmed rapidly, with sea surface temperatures (SST) increasing by 1°C in just a few years. By examining initialized hindcasts made with the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys), it is shown that the warming could have been predicted. Conversely, hindcasts that only consider changes in radiative forcings are not able to capture the rapid warming. Heat budget analysis shows that the success of the DePreSys hindcasts is due to the initialization of anomalously strong northward ocean heat transport. Furthermore, it is found that initializing a strong Atlantic circulation, and in particular a strong Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is key for successful predictions. Finally, we show that DePreSys is able to predict significant changes in SST and other surface climate variables related to the North Atlantic warming.

Molecular requirements for L-type Ca2+ channel blockade by testosterone

Despite being generally perceived as detrimental to the cardiovascular system, testosterone has marked beneficial vascular effects; most notably it acutely and directly causes vasodilatation. Indeed, men with hypotestosteronaemia can present with myocardial ischemia and angina which can be rapidly alleviated by infusion of testosterone. To date, however, in vitro studies have failed to provide a convincing mechanism to account for this clinically important effect. Here, using whole-cell patch-clamp recordings to measure current flow through recombinant human L-type Ca2+ channel alpha(1C) subunits (Ca(v)1.2), we demonstrate that testosterone inhibits such currents in a concentration-dependent manner. Importantly, this occurs over the physiological range of testosterone concentrations (IC50 34 nM), and is not mimicked by the metabolite 5alpha-androstan-17beta-ol-3-one (DHT), nor by progesterone or estradiol, even at high (10 microM) concentration. L-type Ca2+ channels in the vasculature are also important clinical targets for vasodilatory dihydropyridines. A single point mutation (T1007Y) almost completely abolishes nifedipine sensitivity in our recombinant expression system. Crucially, the same mutation renders the channels insensitive to testosterone. Our data strongly suggest, for the first time, the molecular requirements for testosterone binding to L-type Ca2+ channels, thereby supporting its beneficial role as an endogenous Ca2+ channel antagonist in the treatment of cardiovascular disease.

Mononuclear palladium and heterodinuclear palladium–ruthenium complexes of semicarbazone ligands: synthesis, characterization, and application in C–C cross-coupling reactions

Reaction of salicylaldehyde semicarbazone (L-1), 2-hydroxyacetophenone semicarbazone (L-2), and 2-hydroxynaphthaldehyde semicarbazone (L-3) with [Pd(PPh3)(2)Cl-2] in ethanol in the presence of a base (NEt3) affords a family of yellow complexes (1a, 1b and 1c, respectively). In these complexes the semicarbazone ligands are coordinated to palladium in a rather unusual tridentate ONN-mode, and a PPh3 also remains coordinated to the metal center. Crystal structures of the 1b and 1c complexes have been determined, and structure of 1a has been optimized by a DFT method. In these complexes two potential donor sites of the coordinated semicarbazone, viz. the hydrazinic nitrogen and carbonylic oxygen, remain unutilized. Further reaction of these palladium complexes (1a, 1b and 1c) with [Ru(PPh3)(2)(CO)(2)Cl-2] yields a family of orange complexes (2a, 2b and 2c, respectively). In these heterodinuclear (Pd-Ru) complexes, the hydrazinic nitrogen (via dissociation of the N-H proton) and the carbonylic oxygen from the palladium-containing fragment bind to the ruthenium center by displacing a chloride and a carbonyl. Crystal structures of 2a and 2c have been determined, and the structure of 2b has been optimized by a DFT method. All the complexes show characteristic H-1 NMR spectra and, intense absorptions in the visible and ultraviolet region. Cyclic voltammetry on all the complexes shows an irreversible oxidation of the coordinated semicarbazone within 0.86-0.93 V vs. SCE, and an irreversible reduction of the same ligand within -0.96 to -1.14 V vs. SCE. Both the mononuclear (1a, 1b and 1c) and heterodinuclear (2a, 2b and 2c) complexes are found to efficiently catalyze Suzuki, Heck and Sonogashira type C-C coupling reactions utilizing a variety of aryl bromides and aryl chlorides. The Pd-Ru complexes (2a, 2b and 2c) are found to be better catalysts than the Pd complexes (1a, 1b and 1c) for Suzuki and Heck coupling reactions.

Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere

Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.

Quantifying the relationship between temperature regulation in the ear and floret development stage in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under heat and drought stress

Thermal imaging is a valuable tool for the elucidation of gas exchange dynamics between a plant and its environment. The presence of stomata in wheat glumes and awns offers an opportunity to assess photosynthetic activity of ears up to and during flowering. The knowledge of spatial and temporal thermodynamics of the wheat ear may provide insight into interactions between floret developmental stage (FDS), temperature depression (TD) and ambient environment, with potential to be used as a high-throughput screening tool for breeders. A controlled environment study was conducted using six spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes of the elite recombinant inbred line Seri/Babax. Average ear temperature (AET) was recorded using a hand held infrared camera and gas exchange was measured by enclosing ears in a custom built cuvette. FDS was monitored and recorded daily throughout the study. Plants were grown in pots and exposed to a combination of two temperature and two water regimes. In the examined wheat lines, TD varied from 0.1°C to 0.6°C according to the level of stress imposed. The results indicated that TD does not occur at FDS F3, the peak of active flowering, but during the preceding stages prior to pollen release and stigma maturity (F1-F2). These findings suggest that ear temperature during the early stages of anthesis, prior to pollen release and full extension of the stigma, are likely to be the most relevant for identifying heat stress tolerant genotypes.

Ocean heat transport and water vapor greenhouse in a warm equable climate: a new look at the low gradient paradox

The authors study the role of ocean heat transport (OHT) in the maintenance of a warm, equable, ice-free climate. An ensemble of idealized aquaplanet GCM calculations is used to assess the equilibrium sensitivity of global mean surface temperature and its equator-to-pole gradient (ΔT) to variations in OHT, prescribed through a simple analytical formula representing export out of the tropics and poleward convergence. Low-latitude OHT warms the mid- to high latitudes without cooling the tropics; increases by 1°C and ΔT decreases by 2.6°C for every 0.5-PW increase in OHT across 30° latitude. This warming is relatively insensitive to the detailed meridional structure of OHT. It occurs in spite of near-perfect atmospheric compensation of large imposed variations in OHT: the total poleward heat transport is nearly fixed. The warming results from a convective adjustment of the extratropical troposphere. Increased OHT drives a shift from large-scale to convective precipitation in the midlatitude storm tracks. Warming arises primarily from enhanced greenhouse trapping associated with convective moistening of the upper troposphere. Warming extends to the poles by atmospheric processes even in the absence of high-latitude OHT. A new conceptual model for equable climates is proposed, in which OHT plays a key role by driving enhanced deep convection in the midlatitude storm tracks. In this view, the climatic impact of OHT depends on its effects on the greenhouse properties of the atmosphere, rather than its ability to increase the total poleward energy transport.

Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering

The likelihood that continuing greenhouse-gas emissions will lead to an unmanageable degree of climate change [1] has stimulated the search for planetary-scale technological solutions for reducing global warming [2] (“geoengineering”), typically characterized by the necessity for costly new infrastructures and industries [3]. We suggest that the existing global infrastructure associated with arable agriculture can help, given that crop plants exert an important influence over the climatic energy budget 4 and 5 because of differences in their albedo (solar reflectivity) compared to soils and to natural vegetation [6]. Specifically, we propose a “bio-geoengineering” approach to mitigate surface warming, in which crop varieties having specific leaf glossiness and/or canopy morphological traits are specifically chosen to maximize solar reflectivity. We quantify this by modifying the canopy albedo of vegetation in prescribed cropland areas in a global-climate model, and thereby estimate the near-term potential for bio-geoengineering to be a summertime cooling of more than 1°C throughout much of central North America and midlatitude Eurasia, equivalent to seasonally offsetting approximately one-fifth of regional warming due to doubling of atmospheric CO2[7]. Ultimately, genetic modification of plant leaf waxes or canopy structure could achieve greater temperature reductions, although better characterization of existing intraspecies variability is needed first.

Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s

During the 1990s there was a major change in the state of the world's oceans. In particular, the North Atlantic underwent a rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the subpolar gyre region increasing by 1°C in just a few years. Associated with the changes in SST patterns were changes in the surface climate, in particular, a tendency for warm and dry conditions over areas of North America in all seasons, and warm springs and wet summers over areas of Europe. Here, the extent to which a climate prediction system initialized using observations of the ocean state is able to capture the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate is investigated. Rather than examining predictions of the mid-1990s North Atlantic warming event itself, this study compares hindcasts started before and after the warming, relative to hindcasts that do not assimilate information. It is demonstrated that the hindcasts capture many aspects of the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate, especially in North, South, and Central America and in Europe. Furthermore, the prediction system retains skill beyond the first year. Finally, it is shown that, in addition to memory of Atlantic SSTs, successfully predicting Pacific SSTs was likely important for the hindcasts to predict surface climate over North America.

Observed relationships between maize yield and climate in Sri Lanka

The present study evaluated the effects of climate variability on maize (Zea mays L.) yield in Sri Lanka at different spatial scales. Biophysical data from the Department of Agriculture (DOA) in Sri Lanka for six major maize-growing districts (Ampara, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Hambantota, Moneragala, and Kurunegala) from 1990 to 2010 were analyzed. Simple linear regression models were fitted to observed climate data and detrended maize yield to identify significant correlations. The correlation between first differences of maize yield and climate (r) was further investigated at 0.50° grid scale using interpolated climate data. After 2003, significantly positive (p < 0.01) yield trends varied from 154 kg ha–1 yr–1 to 360 kg ha–1 yr–1. The correlations between maize yield and climate reported that five out of six districts were significant at 10% level. Rainfall had a consistent significant (p < 0.10) positive impact on maize yield in Anuradhapura, Hambantota, and Moneragala, where seasonal total rainfall together with high temperature (“hot-dry”) are the key limitations. Further, the seasonal mean temperature had a negative impact on maize yield in Moneragala (“hot-dry”), the only district that showed high temperatures. Badulla district (“cold-dry”) reported a significant (r = 0.38) positive correlation with mean seasonal temperature, indicating higher potential toward increasing temperatures. Each 1°C rise in seasonal mean temperature reduced maize yield by about 5% from 1990 to 2010. Overall, there was a reasonable correlation between district maize yield and seasonal climate in most of the districts within the maize belt of Sri Lanka.

Simulation of long-term thermal characteristics of three Estonian lakes

A one-dimensional surface energy-balance lake model, coupled to a thermodynamic model of lake ice, is used to simulate variations in the temperature of and evaporation from three Estonian lakes: Karujärv, Viljandi and Kirjaku. The model is driven by daily climate data, derived by cubic-spline interpolation from monthly mean data, and was run for periods of 8 years (Kirjaku) up to 30 years (Viljandi). Simulated surface water temperature is in good agreement with observations: mean differences between simulated and observed temperatures are from −0.8°C to +0.1°C. The simulated duration of snow and ice cover is comparable with observed. However, the model generally underpredicts ice thickness and overpredicts snow depth. Sensitivity analyses suggest that the model results are robust across a wide range (0.1–2.0 m−1) of lake extinction coefficient: surface temperature differs by less than 0.5°C between extreme values of the extinction coefficient. The model results are more sensitive to snow and ice albedos. However, changing the snow (0.2–0.9) and ice (0.15–0.55) albedos within realistic ranges does not improve the simulations of snow depth and ice thickness. The underestimation of ice thickness is correlated with the overestimation of snow cover, since a thick snow layer insulates the ice and limits ice formation. The overestimation of snow cover results from the assumption that all the simulated winter precipitation occurs as snow, a direct consequence of using daily climate data derived by interpolation from mean monthly data.

Soil quality assessment based on carbon stratification index in different olive grove management practices in Mediterranean areas

In Mediterranean areas, conventional tillage increases soil organic matter losses, reduces soil quality, and contributes to climate change due to increased CO2 emissions. CO2 sequestration rates in soil may be enhanced by appropriate agricultural soil management and increasing soil organic matter content. This study analyzes the stratification ratio (SR) index of soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) and C:N ratio under different management practices in an olive grove (OG) in Mediterranean areas (Andalusia, southern Spain). Management practices considered in this study are conventional tillage (CT) and no tillage (NT). In the first case, CT treatments included addition of alperujo (A) and olive leaves (L). A control plot with no addition of olive mill waste was considered (CP). In the second case, NT treatments included addition of chipped pruned branches (NT1) and chipped pruned branches and weeds (NT2). The SRs of SOC increased with depth for all treatments. The SR of SOC was always higher in NT compared to CT treatments, with the highest SR of SOC observed under NT2. The SR of N increased with depth in all cases, ranging between 0.89 (L-SR1) and 39.11 (L-SR3 and L-SR4).The SR of C:N ratio was characterized by low values, ranging from 0.08 (L-SR3) to 1.58 (NT1-SR2) and generally showing higher values in SR1 and SR2 compared to those obtained in SR3 and SR4. This study has evaluated several limitations to the SR index such as the fact that it is descriptive but does not analyze the behavior of the variable over time. In addition, basing the assessment of soil quality on a single variable could lead to an oversimplification of the assessment. Some of these limitations were experienced in the assessment of L, where SR1 of SOC was the lowest of the studied soils. In this case, the higher content in the second depth interval compared to the first was caused by the intrinsic characteristics of this soil's formation process rather than by degradation. Despite the limitations obtained SRs demonstrate that NT with the addition of organic material improves soil quality.

Regulation of Bcl-xL expression by H2O2 in cardiac myocytes.

Oxidative stress promotes cardiac myocyte apoptosis through the mitochondrial death pathway. Since Bcl-2 family proteins are key regulators of apoptosis, we examined the effects of H2O2 on the expression of principal Bcl-2 family proteins (Bcl-2, Bcl-xL, Bax, Bad) in neonatal rat cardiac myocytes. Protein expression was assessed by immunoblotting. Bcl-2, Bax, and Bad were all down-regulated in myocytes exposed to 0.2 mm H2O2, a concentration that induces apoptosis. In contrast, although Bcl-xL levels initially declined, the protein was re-expressed from 4-6 h. Bcl-xL mRNA was up-regulated from 2 to 4 h in neonatal rat or mouse cardiac myocytes exposed to H2O2, consistent with the re-expression of protein. Four different untranslated first exons have been identified for the Bcl-x gene (exons 1, 1B, 1C, and 1D, where exon 1 is the most proximal and exon 1D the most distal to the coding region). All were detected in mouse or rat neonatal cardiac myocytes, but exon 1D was not expressed in adult mouse hearts. In neonatal mouse or rat cardiac myocytes, H2O2 induced the expression of exons 1B, 1C, and 1D, but not exon 1. These data demonstrate that the Bcl-x gene is selectively responsive to oxidative stress, and the response is mediated through distal promoter regions.

Implementing systematic review techniques in chemical risk assessment: challenges, opportunities and recommendations

Systematic review (SR) is a rigorous, protocol-driven approach designed to minimise error and bias when summarising the body of research evidence relevant to a specific scientific question. Taking as a comparator the use of SR in synthesising research in healthcare, we argue that SR methods could also pave the way for a “step change” in the transparency, objectivity and communication of chemical risk assessments (CRA) in Europe and elsewhere. We suggest that current controversies around the safety of certain chemicals are partly due to limitations in current CRA procedures which have contributed to ambiguity about the health risks posed by these substances. We present an overview of how SR methods can be applied to the assessment of risks from chemicals, and indicate how challenges in adapting SR methods from healthcare research to the CRA context might be overcome. Regarding the latter, we report the outcomes from a workshop exploring how to increase uptake of SR methods, attended by experts representing a wide range of fields related to chemical toxicology, risk analysis and SR. Priorities which were identified include: the conduct of CRA-focused prototype SRs; the development of a recognised standard of reporting and conduct for SRs in toxicology and CRA; and establishing a network to facilitate research, communication and training in SR methods. We see this paper as a milestone in the creation of a research climate that fosters communication between experts in CRA and SR and facilitates wider uptake of SR methods into CRA.

Asymmetric oxidation of vinyl- and ethynyl terthiophene ligands in triruthenium complexes

A series of ruthenium(II) complexes [{RuCl(CO)(PMe3)3(–CHvCH–)}nX], 1a–1c (1a: n = 3, X = 3,3’’- dimethyl-2,2’:3’,2’’-terthiophene; 1b: n = 2, X = 2,2’-bithiophene; 1c: n = 2, X = 2,3-bis(3-methylthiophen- 2-yl)benzothiophene) and [{Cp*(dppe)2Ru(–CuC–)}3X], 1d (X = 3,3’’-dimethyl-2,2’:3’,2’’- terthiophene), were prepared and characterized by 1H, 13C and 31P NMR. Their redox, spectroscopic and bonding properties were studied with a range of spectro-electrochemical methods in combination with density functional theory calculations. The first two anodic steps observed for 1a and 1d are largely localized on the lateral frameworks of the molecular triangle, the direct conjugation between them being precluded due to the photostable open form of the dithienyl ethene moiety. The third anodic step is then mainly localized on the centerpiece of the triangular structure, affecting both bithiophene laterals. The experimental IR and UV-vis-NIR spectroelectrochemical data and, largely, also DFT calculations account for this explanation, being further supported by direct comparison with the anodic behavior of reference diruthenium complexes 1b and 1c.

A low mortality, high morbidity reduced intensity status epilepticus (RISE) model of epilepsy and epileptogenesis in the rat

Animal models of acquired epilepsies aim to provide researchers with tools for use in understanding the processes underlying the acquisition, development and establishment of the disorder. Typically, following a systemic or local insult, vulnerable brain regions undergo a process leading to the development, over time, of spontaneous recurrent seizures. Many such models make use of a period of intense seizure activity or status epilepticus, and this may be associated with high mortality and/or global damage to large areas of the brain. These undesirable elements have driven improvements in the design of chronic epilepsy models, for example the lithium-pilocarpine epileptogenesis model. Here, we present an optimised model of chronic epilepsy that reduces mortality to 1% whilst retaining features of high epileptogenicity and development of spontaneous seizures. Using local field potential recordings from hippocampus in vitro as a probe, we show that the model does not result in significant loss of neuronal network function in area CA3 and, instead, subtle alterations in network dynamics appear during a process of epileptogenesis, which eventually leads to a chronic seizure state. The model’s features of very low mortality and high morbidity in the absence of global neuronal damage offer the chance to explore the processes underlying epileptogenesis in detail, in a population of animals not defined by their resistance to seizures, whilst acknowledging and being driven by the 3Rs (Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of animal use in scientific procedures) principles.