Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.

Asymmetric output gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark-up pricing models: evidence for the US and the UK

A number of studies have found an asymmetric response of consumer price index inflation to the output gap in the US in simple Phillips curve models. We consider whether there are similar asymmetries in mark-up pricing models, that is, whether the mark-up over producers' costs also depends upon the sign of the (adjusted) output gap. The robustness of our findings to the price series is assessed, and also whether price-output responses in the UK are asymmetric.

Mark Casson: the Entrepreneur at 30 -continued relevance?

Mark Casson's The Entrepreneur: An Economic Theory (1982) has become one of the most influential books in the field of entrepreneurship. For the first time, this article outlines its origins and summarizes its main themes. The article goes on to show how Casson's subsequent research has closely followed the research agenda he set for himself in The Entrepreneur and illustrates the continuing challenge his work presents to entrepreneurship scholars. The article is based on an interview the authors conducted with Mark Casson on the thirtieth anniversary of the book's publication. Copyright © 2014 Strategic Management Society.

Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14

During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure. A key question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. We assess the scale of the winter flooding before reviewing a broad range of Earth system drivers affecting UK rainfall. Some drivers can be potentially disregarded for these specific storms whereas others are likely to have increased their risk of occurrence. We discuss the requirements of hydrological models to transform rainfall into river flows and flooding. To determine any general changing flood risk, we argue that accurate modelling needs to capture evolving understanding of UK rainfall interactions with a broad set of factors. This includes changes to multiscale atmospheric, oceanic, solar and sea-ice features, and land-use and demographics. Ensembles of such model simulations may be needed to build probability distributions of extremes for both pre-industrial and contemporary concentration levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Classification in e-procurement

Three coupled knowledge transfer partnerships used pattern recognition techniques to produce an e-procurement system which, the National Audit Office reports, could save the National Health Service £500 m per annum. An extension to the system, GreenInsight, allows the environmental impact of procurements to be assessed and savings made. Both systems require suitable products to be discovered and equivalent products recognised, for which classification is a key component. This paper describes the innovative work done for product classification, feature selection and reducing the impact of mislabelled data.

Mushrooms and taphonomy: the fungi that mark woodland graves

Two closely related chemoecological groups of fungi, the ammonia fungi and the postputrefaction fungi, have been associated with the decomposition by-products of cadavers. Sporocarps have been observed in disparate woodlands across the world and often mark sites of graves. These groups of fungi provide visible markers of the sites of cadaver decomposition and follow repeated patterns of successional change as apparent decomposition proceeds. We suggest these phenomena may become a useful tool for crime scene investigation, forensic archaeology and forensic taphonomy.