English nettles and other poems

A collection of poems, illustrated by Sally Castle.

Urban microclimate and renewable energy use in cities

This paper presents an experimental measurement campaign of urban microclimate for a building complex located in London, the United Kingdom. The experiment was carried out between 19 July and 16 August, 2010 at the Elephant & Castle site. The wind and solar energy distributions within the London urban experimental site were assessed in detail for their potential use in areas of high-rise urban building complexes. The climatic variables were measured at every five minutes for the air temperature, the wind speed and direction, the air humidity and the global solar radiation for a period of four weeks. The surface temperatures were also measured on the asphalt road, pavement and building walls at every hour for the first week of the campaign period. The effect of the building complex on the urban microclimate has been analyzed in terms of the solar radiation, the air temperature and velocity. The information and observation obtained from this campaign will be useful to the analysis of renewable energy implementations in dense urban situations.

The British state and the Irish rebellion of 1916: an intelligence failure or an failure of response

The teleological narrative that has dominated the handling of intelligence by the British state in the events that led up to the 1916 Irish Rebellion in Dublin has been characterised as a cocktail of incompetence and mendacity. Using new and existing archive material this article argues that both the cabinet in London and key members of the Irish Executive in Dublin were supplied with accurate and timely intelligence by the Admiralty's signals intelligence unit, the Royal Irish Constabulary and the Dublin Metropolitan Police with respect to this event. Far from being a failure of intelligence here is evidence to show that there occurred a failure of response on behalf of key decision-makers. The warnings that were given by intelligence organisations were filtered through the existing policy preferences and assumptions. As a result of these factors accurate evaluations and sound judgement were not exercised by key officials, such as Sir Matthew Nathan, in Dublin Castle.

The Extras Regina, 2008

Project includes: a large scale live performance and resulting performance video, at Curtain Razors, Regina Queen’s Square, Regina, 2008 Live Performance, 45 mins, incl. 1 actor, 23 extras, 2 live cameras, live video and sound mixing, stage set, video projection. Video 45 mins Video Trailer 7 mins The Extras is a video performance referencing the form of a large live film shoot. The Extras contextualises contemporary Westerns genres within an experimental live tableau. The live performance and resulting 45 mins video make reference 19th century Western Author German Karl May, the tradition of Eastern European Western, (Red Western), Uranium exploitation and entrepreneurial cultures in the Canadian Prairies. Funded by the Canada Council for the Arts, Saskatchewan Arts Board and Curtain Razors, the Extras Regina was staged and performed at Central Plaza in Regina, with a crew of 23 extras, 2 live cameras, live video and sound mixing ad video projection. It involved research in Saskatchewan film and photographic archives. The performance was edited live and mixed with video material which was shot on location, with a further group of extras at historical historical ‘Western’ locations, including Fort Qu' Appelle, 
Castle Butte and Big Muddy. It also involved a collaboration with a local theatre production company, which enacted a dramatised historical incident.

‘The Making of the Book’: Roy Fisher, the Circle Press and the poetics of book art

Between 1972 and 2001, the English late-modernist poet Roy Fisher provided the text for nine separate artist's books produced by Ron King at the Circle Press. Taken together, as Andrew Lambirth has written, the Fisher-King collaborations represent a sustained investigation of the various ways in which text and image can be integrated, breaking the mould of the codex or folio edition, and turning the book into a sculptural object. From the three-dimensional pop-up designs of Bluebeard's Castle (1973), each representing a part of the edifice (the portcullis, the armoury and so on), to ‘alphabet books’ such as The Half-Year Letters (1983), held in an ingenious french-folded concertina which can be stretched to over a metre long or compacted to a pocketbook, the project of these art books is to complicate their own bibliographic codes, and rethink what a book can be. Their folds and reduplications give a material form to the processes by which meanings are produced: from the discovery, in Top Down, Bottom Up (1990), of how to draw on both sides of the page at the same time, to the developments of The Left-Handed Punch (1987) and Anansi Company (1992), where the book becomes first a four-dimensional theatre space, in which a new version of Punch and Judy is played out by twelve articulated puppets, and then a location for characters that are self-contained and removable, in the form of thirteen hand-made wire and card rod-puppets. Finally, in Tabernacle (2001), a seven-drawer black wooden cabinet that stands foursquare like a sculpture (and sells to galleries and collectors for over three thousand pounds), the conception of the book and the material history of print are fully undone and reconstituted. This paper analyses how the King-Fisher art books work out their radically material poetics of the book; how their emphasis on collaboration, between artist and poet, image and text, and also book and reader – the construction of meaning becoming a co-implicated process – continuously challenges hierarchies and fixities in our conception of authorship; and how they re-think the status of poetic text and the construction of the book as material object.

The Marlborough mound, Wiltshire. A further Neolithic monumental mound by the River Kennet.

Recent radiocarbon dates obtained from two soil cores taken through the Marlborough Castle mound, Wiltshire, show the main body of it to be a contemporaneous monument to Silbury Hill, dating to the second half of the 3rd millennium cal bc. In light of these dates, this paper considers the sequence identified within the cores, which includes two possible flood events early in the construction of the mound. It also describes four cores taken through the surrounding ditch, as well as small-scale work to the north-east of the mound. The topographic location of the mound in a low-lying area and close to rivers and springs is discussed, and the potential for Late Neolithic sites nearby is set out, with the land to the south of the mound identified as an area for future research. The paper ends with the prospect that other apparent mottes in Wiltshire and beyond may well also have prehistoric origins

Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?

We consider forecasting with factors, variables and both, modeling in-sample using Autometrics so all principal components and variables can be included jointly, while tackling multiple breaks by impulse-indicator saturation. A forecast-error taxonomy for factor models highlights the impacts of location shifts on forecast-error biases. Forecasting US GDP over 1-, 4- and 8-step horizons using the dataset from Stock and Watson (2009) updated to 2011:2 shows factor models are more useful for nowcasting or short-term forecasting, but their relative performance declines as the forecast horizon increases. Forecasts for GDP levels highlight the need for robust strategies, such as intercept corrections or differencing, when location shifts occur as in the recent financial crisis.

Robust approaches to forecasting

We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium-correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, impulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods are likely to perform well. The robust methods are applied to forecasting US GDP using autoregressive models, and also to autoregressive models with factors extracted from a large dataset of macroeconomic variables. We consider forecasting performance over the Great Recession, and over an earlier more quiescent period.

Landscape change in central Latvia since the Iron Age: multi-proxy analysis of the vegetation impact of conflict, colonization and economic expansion during the last 2000 years

This study represents the first detailed multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation associated with a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling site in the eastern Baltic. The main objective was to reconstruct the environmental and vegetation dynamics associated with the establishment of the lake-dwelling and land-use during the last 2,000 years. A lacustrine sediment core located adjacent to a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling, medieval castle and Post-medieval manor was sampled in Lake Āraiši. The core was dated using spheroidal fly-ash particles and radiocarbon dating, and analysed in terms of pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, diatoms, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and element geochemistry. Associations between pollen and other proxies were statistically tested. During ad 1–700, the vicinity of Lake Āraiši was covered by forests and human activities were only small-scale with the first appearance of cereal pollen (Triticum and Secale cereale) after ad 400. The most significant changes in vegetation and environment occurred with the establishment of the lake-dwelling around ad 780 when the immediate surroundings of the lake were cleared for agriculture, and within the lake there were increased nutrient levels. The highest accumulation rates of coprophilous fungi coincide with the occupation of the lake-dwelling from ad 780–1050, indicating that parts of the dwelling functioned as byres for livestock. The conquest of tribal lands during the crusades resulted in changes to the ownership, administration and organisation of the land, but our results indicate that the form and type of agriculture and land-use continued much as it had during the preceding Late Iron Age.

Palaeoenvironmental evidence for the impact of the crusades on the local and regional environment of medieval (13th–16th century) northern Latvia, eastern Baltic

This paper evaluates the impact of the crusades on the landscape and environment of northern Latvia between the 13th–16th centuries (medieval Livonia). The crusades replaced tribal societies in the eastern Baltic with a religious state (Ordenstaat) run by the military orders and their allies, accompanied by significant social, cultural and economic developments. These changes have previously received little consideration in palaeoenvironmental studies of past land use in the eastern Baltic region, but are fundamental to understanding the development and expansion of a European Christian identity. Sediment cores from Lake Trikāta, located adjacent to a medieval castle and settlement, were studied using pollen, macrofossils, loss-on-ignition and magnetic susceptibility. Our results show that despite continuous agricultural land use from 500 BC, the local landscape was still densely wooded until the start of the crusades in AD 1198 when a diversified pattern of pasture, meadow and arable land use was established. Colonisation followed the crusades, although in Livonia this occurred on a much smaller scale than in the rest of the Ordenstaat; Trikāta is atypical showing significant impact following the crusades with many other palaeoenvironmental studies only revealing more limited impact from the 14th century and later. Subsequent wars and changes in political control in the post-medieval period had little apparent effect on agricultural land use.