Benchmarking 2D hydraulic models for urban flooding

This paper describes benchmark testing of six two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic models (DIVAST, DIVASTTVD, TUFLOW, JFLOW, TRENT and LISFLOOD-FP) in terms of their ability to simulate surface flows in a densely urbanised area. The models are applied to a 1·0 km × 0·4 km urban catchment within the city of Glasgow, Scotland, UK, and are used to simulate a flood event that occurred at this site on 30 July 2002. An identical numerical grid describing the underlying topography is constructed for each model, using a combination of airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) fused with digital map data, and used to run a benchmark simulation. Two numerical experiments were then conducted to test the response of each model to topographic error and uncertainty over friction parameterisation. While all the models tested produce plausible results, subtle differences between particular groups of codes give considerable insight into both the practice and science of urban hydraulic modelling. In particular, the results show that the terrain data available from modern LiDAR systems are sufficiently accurate and resolved for simulating urban flows, but such data need to be fused with digital map data of building topology and land use to gain maximum benefit from the information contained therein. When such terrain data are available, uncertainty in friction parameters becomes a more dominant factor than topographic error for typical problems. The simulations also show that flows in urban environments are characterised by numerous transitions to supercritical flow and numerical shocks. However, the effects of these are localised and they do not appear to affect overall wave propagation. In contrast, inertia terms are shown to be important in this particular case, but the specific characteristics of the test site may mean that this does not hold more generally.

Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.

Diagnostic analysis of atmospheric moisture and clear-sky radiative feedback in the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models

The interannual variability of the hydrological cycle is diagnosed from the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models, both of which are forced by observed sea surface temperatures. The models produce a similar sensitivity of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to surface temperature of ∼2 W m−2 K−1, indicating a consistent and positive clear-sky radiative feedback. However, differences between changes in the temperature lapse-rate and the height dependence of moisture fluctuations suggest that contrasting mechanisms bring about this result. The GFDL model appears to give a weaker water vapor feedback (i.e., changes in specific humidity). This is counteracted by a smaller upper tropospheric temperature response to surface warming, which implies a compensating positive lapse-rate feedback.

On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle

Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10-20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean's thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.

A comparison of diatom phosphorus transfer functions and export coefficient models as tools for reconstructing lake nutrient histories

1. We compared the baseline phosphorus (P) concentrations inferred by diatom-P transfer functions and export coefficient models at 62 lakes in Great Britain to assess whether the techniques produce similar estimates of historical nutrient status. 2. There was a strong linear relationship between the two sets of values over the whole total P (TP) gradient (2-200 mu g TP L-1). However, a systematic bias was observed with the diatom model producing the higher values in 46 lakes (of which values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in 21). The export coefficient model gave the higher values in 10 lakes (of which the values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in only 4). 3. The difference between baseline and present-day TP concentrations was calculated to compare the extent of eutrophication inferred by the two sets of model output. There was generally poor agreement between the amounts of change estimated by the two approaches. The discrepancy in both the baseline values and the degree of change inferred by the models was greatest in the shallow and more productive sites. 4. Both approaches were applied to two lakes in the English Lake District where long-term P data exist, to assess how well the models track measured P concentrations since approximately 1850. There was good agreement between the pre-enrichment TP concentrations generated by the models. The diatom model paralleled the steeper rise in maximum soluble reactive P (SRP) more closely than the gradual increase in annual mean TP in both lakes. The export coefficient model produced a closer fit to observed annual mean TP concentrations for both sites, tracking the changes in total external nutrient loading. 5. A combined approach is recommended, with the diatom model employed to reflect the nature and timing of the in-lake response to changes in nutrient loading, and the export coefficient model used to establish the origins and extent of changes in the external load and to assess potential reduction in loading under different management scenarios. 6. However, caution must be exercised when applying these models to shallow lakes where the export coefficient model TP estimate will not include internal P loading from lake sediments and where the diatom TP inferences may over-estimate TP concentrations because of the high abundance of benthic taxa, many of which are poor indicators of trophic state.

Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10(6) ms(3) s(-1)) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5-10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970-1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061 +/- 0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models' inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Indirect population dynamic benefits of altered life-history trade-offs in response to egg harvesting

Variations in demographic rates due to differential resource allocation between individuals are important considerations in the development of accurate population dynamic models. Systematic harvesting can alter age structure and/or reduce population density, conferring indirect positive benefits on the source population as a result of a consequent redistribution of resources between the remaining individuals. Independently of effects mediated through changes in density and competition, demographic rates can also be influenced by within-individual competition for resources. Harvesting dependent life stages can reduce an individual's current reproductive costs, allowing increased investment in its future fecundity and survival. Although such changes in demographic rates are well known, there has been little exploration of the potential impact on population dynamics. We use empirical data collected from a successfully reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus to explore the population consequences of manipulating reproductive effort through harvesting. Consequent increases in an individual's future fecundity and survival allow source populations to withstand longer and more intensive harvesting regimes without being exposed to an increase in extinction risk, increasing maximum sustainable yields. These effects may also buffer populations against the impacts of stochastic events, but directional shifts in environmental conditions that increase reproductive costs may have detrimental population-level effects.

Predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption: from nutrient requirement to animal response and environmental impact

Current feed evaluation systems for dairy cattle aim to match nutrient requirements with nutrient intake at pre-defined production levels. These systems were not developed to address, and are not suitable to predict, the responses to dietary changes in terms of production level and product composition, excretion of nutrients to the environment, and nutrition related disorders. The change from a requirement to a response system to meet the needs of various stakeholders requires prediction of the profile of absorbed nutrients and its subsequent utilisation for various purposes. This contribution examines the challenges to predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption in dairy cattle and provides guidelines for further improved prediction with regard to animal production responses and environmental pollution. The profile of nutrients available for absorption comprises volatile fatty acids, long-chain fatty acids, amino acids and glucose. Thus the importance of processes in the reticulo-rumen is obvious. Much research into rumen fermentation is aimed at determination of substrate degradation rates. Quantitative knowledge on rates of passage of nutrients out of the rumen is rather limited compared with that on degradation rates, and thus should be an important theme in future research. Current systems largely ignore microbial metabolic variation, and extant mechanistic models of rumen fermentation give only limited attention to explicit representation of microbial metabolic activity. Recent molecular techniques indicate that knowledge on the presence and activity of various microbial species is far from complete. Such techniques may give a wealth of information, but to include such findings in systems predicting the nutrient profile requires close collaboration between molecular scientists and mathematical modellers on interpreting and evaluating quantitative data. Protozoal metabolism is of particular interest here given the paucity of quantitative data. Empirical models lack the biological basis necessary to evaluate mitigation strategies to reduce excretion of waste, including nitrogen, phosphorus and methane. Such models may have little predictive value when comparing various feeding strategies. Examples include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II models to quantify methane emissions and current protein evaluation systems to evaluate low protein diets to reduce nitrogen losses to the environment. Nutrient based mechanistic models can address such issues. Since environmental issues generally attract more funding from governmental offices, further development of nutrient based models may well take place within an environmental framework.

Fitting models for the joint action of two drugs using SAS(R)

Combinations of drugs are increasingly being used for a wide variety of diseases and conditions. A pre-clinical study may allow the investigation of the response at a large number of dose combinations. In determining the response to a drug combination, interest may lie in seeking evidence of synergism, in which the joint action is greater than the actions of the individual drugs, or of antagonism, in which it is less. Two well-known response surface models representing no interaction are Loewe additivity and Bliss independence, and Loewe or Bliss synergism or antagonism is defined relative to these. We illustrate an approach to fitting these models for the case in which the marginal single drug dose-response relationships are represented by four-parameter logistic curves with common upper and lower limits, and where the response variable is normally distributed with a common variance about the dose-response curve. When the dose-response curves are not parallel, the relative potency of the two drugs varies according to the magnitude of the desired effect and the models for Loewe additivity and synergism/antagonism cannot be explicitly expressed. We present an iterative approach to fitting these models without the assumption of parallel dose-response curves. A goodness-of-fit test based on residuals is also described. Implementation using the SAS NLIN procedure is illustrated using data from a pre-clinical study. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting the functional response of a farmland bird

1. Mechanistic models may be able to predict how changes in agricultural practice influence farmland bird populations. A key component of these models is the link between food and competitor densities and the rate at which birds consume food, i.e. the functional response. 2. This paper tests whether the functional response of a farmland bird, the rook Corvus frugilegus, can be predicted from three parameters: searching speed, food detection distance and handling time. It is often difficult to measure the functional response of farmland birds directly, but it may be possible to measure behavioural parameters more quickly. 3. We performed experiments in which rooks fed on a range of artificial food densities in two grass sward heights. Food detection distance was greater in the shorter sward, but sward height did not influence searching speed or handling time. The functional response could be accurately predicted in both sward heights. 4. We show that the functional response of a farmland bird can be predicted from parameters that can be measured more quickly than the alternative of measuring the functional response directly. This implies that the functional responses of other farmland birds may be predicted using a minimum of information.

The ACTH response to dexamethasone in PTSD

Objective: Enhanced negative feedback and reduced adrenal output are two different models that have been put forth to explain the paradoxical observations of increased release of corticotropin-releasing factor in the face of low cortisol levels in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSID). To discriminate between these models, the authors measured levels of adrenocorticopic hormone (ACTH) and cortisol at baseline and in response to dexamethasone in medically healthy subjects with and without PTSID. Under conditions of enhanced negative feedback inhibition, ACTH levels would not be altered relative to cortisol levels, but the ACTH response to dexamethasone would be augmented, in concert with the enhanced cortisol response to dexamethasone. In contrast, under conditions of reduced adrenal output, ACTH levels would be expected to be higher at baseline relative to cortisol levels, but the ACTH response to dexamethasone would be unchanged in PTSID relative to healthy comparison subjects. Method: The ACTH and cortisol responses to 0.50 mg of dexamethasone were assessed in 19 subjects (15 men and four women) with PTSID and 19 subjects (14 men and five women) without psychiatric disorder. Results: The ACTH-to-cortisol ratio did not differ between groups before or after dexamethasone, but the subjects with PTSD showed greater suppression of ACTH (as well as cortisol) in response to dexamethasone. Conclusions: The data support the hypothesis of enhanced cortisol negative feedback inhibition of ACTH secretion at the level of the pituitary in PTSD. Pituitary glucocorticoid receptor binding, rather than low adrenal output, is implicated as a likely mechanism for this effect.

The temporal impulse response underlying saccadic decisions

Models of perceptual decision making often assume that sensory evidence is accumulated over time in favor of the various possible decisions, until the evidence in favor of one of them outweighs the evidence for the others. Saccadic eye movements are among the most frequent perceptual decisions that the human brain performs. We used stochastic visual stimuli to identify the temporal impulse response underlying saccadic eye movement decisions. Observers performed a contrast search task, with temporal variability in the visual signals. In experiment 1, we derived the temporal filter observers used to integrate the visual information. The integration window was restricted to the first similar to 100 ms after display onset. In experiment 2, we showed that observers cannot perform the task if there is no useful information to distinguish the target from the distractor within this time epoch. We conclude that (1) observers did not integrate sensory evidence up to a criterion level, (2) observers did not integrate visual information up to the start of the saccadic dead time, and (3) variability in saccade latency does not correspond to variability in the visual integration period. Instead, our results support a temporal filter model of saccadic decision making. The temporal impulse response identified by our methods corresponds well with estimates of integration times of V1 output neurons.

Using continuous ground-based radar and lidar measurements for evaluating the representation of clouds in four operational models

The ability of four operational weather forecast models [ECMWF, Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle model (ARPEGE), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), and Met Office] to generate a cloud at the right location and time (the cloud frequency of occurrence) is assessed in the present paper using a two-year time series of observations collected by profiling ground-based active remote sensors (cloud radar and lidar) located at three different sites in western Europe (Cabauw. Netherlands; Chilbolton, United Kingdom; and Palaiseau, France). Particular attention is given to potential biases that may arise from instrumentation differences (especially sensitivity) from one site to another and intermittent sampling. In a second step the statistical properties of the cloud variables involved in most advanced cloud schemes of numerical weather forecast models (ice water content and cloud fraction) are characterized and compared with their counterparts in the models. The two years of observations are first considered as a whole in order to evaluate the accuracy of the statistical representation of the cloud variables in each model. It is shown that all models tend to produce too many high-level clouds, with too-high cloud fraction and ice water content. The midlevel and low-level cloud occurrence is also generally overestimated, with too-low cloud fraction but a correct ice water content. The dataset is then divided into seasons to evaluate the potential of the models to generate different cloud situations in response to different large-scale forcings. Strong variations in cloud occurrence are found in the observations from one season to the same season the following year as well as in the seasonal cycle. Overall, the model biases observed using the whole dataset are still found at seasonal scale, but the models generally manage to well reproduce the observed seasonal variations in cloud occurrence. Overall, models do not generate the same cloud fraction distributions and these distributions do not agree with the observations. Another general conclusion is that the use of continuous ground-based radar and lidar observations is definitely a powerful tool for evaluating model cloud schemes and for a responsive assessment of the benefit achieved by changing or tuning a model cloud