Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements

Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.

Annual textural banding in Holocene estuarine silts, Severn Estuary Levels (SW Britain): patterns, cause and implications

A high-resolution textural study has been made of laminated and banded estuarine silts exposed intertidally at representative localities and horizons in the Holocene deposits of the Severn Estuary Levels. The laminae, on a submillimetre to millimetre scale, are sharp-based, graded couplets formed of a lower silty part overlain by a finer-textured clayey element. The centimetre- to decimetre-scale banding is formed of laminae in alternating, gradually intergrading sets of relatively coarse and relative fine-grained examples. At outcrop in the field, the banding is recognizable because the coarse sets prove to be recessive to varying degrees under the influence of weathering and current action. Independent evidence at two localities points toward an annual origin for the banding; at a third it arose during part of what appears to have been a relatively short period. Quantified physical arguments suggest that the textural banding is a response of suspended fine sediment to marked seasonal changes in sea temperature and windiness. The banded silts occur in four distinct stratigraphical contexts and record high deposition rates (order 0.01-0.1 m/yr). Because physical factors determine their textures, the silts potentially afford insights in all contexts into aspects of changing Holocene climatic conditions. In one context, the thickness of the bands points to high (order 0.01-0.1 m/yr) but comparatively short-lived (order 10s-100s yrs) rates of relative water-level rise. In the others, however, the banding has no implications for sea-level behaviour, and simply records gross environmental disequilibrium, for example, the recovery of mudflats/marshes after an erosional episode. Similarly, because on account of their rapid accumulation the banded silts preserve animal and human tracks and trackways especially well, they provide an archive of animal and human behaviour in the area during the Holocene.

Uncertainties in annual riverine phosphorus load estimation: Impact of load estimation methodology, sampling frequency, baseflow index and catchment population density

Models developed to identify the rates and origins of nutrient export from land to stream require an accurate assessment of the nutrient load present in the water body in order to calibrate model parameters and structure. These data are rarely available at a representative scale and in an appropriate chemical form except in research catchments. Observational errors associated with nutrient load estimates based on these data lead to a high degree of uncertainty in modelling and nutrient budgeting studies. Here, daily paired instantaneous P and flow data for 17 UK research catchments covering a total of 39 water years (WY) have been used to explore the nature and extent of the observational error associated with nutrient flux estimates based on partial fractions and infrequent sampling. The daily records were artificially decimated to create 7 stratified sampling records, 7 weekly records, and 30 monthly records from each WY and catchment. These were used to evaluate the impact of sampling frequency on load estimate uncertainty. The analysis underlines the high uncertainty of load estimates based on monthly data and individual P fractions rather than total P. Catchments with a high baseflow index and/or low population density were found to return a lower RMSE on load estimates when sampled infrequently than those with a tow baseflow index and high population density. Catchment size was not shown to be important, though a limitation of this study is that daily records may fail to capture the full range of P export behaviour in smaller catchments with flashy hydrographs, leading to an underestimate of uncertainty in Load estimates for such catchments. Further analysis of sub-daily records is needed to investigate this fully. Here, recommendations are given on load estimation methodologies for different catchment types sampled at different frequencies, and the ways in which this analysis can be used to identify observational error and uncertainty for model calibration and nutrient budgeting studies. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Local development companies and the regeneration of Britain's cities

Efforts to decentralise the pursuit of economic and social development have increased in recent years. The authors examine the rationale for establishing local development companies in areas of high unemployment and deprivation. The broad purpose is to establish a new style of organisation that combines attributes of the public and private sectors-to adapt and integrate economic and social services to meet local needs, to champion local interests in external arenas, and to act as enabling agents to promote local investment and development. These arguments are elaborated and illustrated with reference to one of Britain's most successful local development companies, Govan Initiative. The analysis reveals important strengths of the Initiative, including its action orientation, commitment to quality, and a local leadership role, but also certain weaknesses including its limited leverage over wider policies and resource flows. Local development companies need meaningful commitment from regional and national public organisations to fulfil their potential.

Century-of-Information Research (CIR): a strategy for research and innovation in the century of information

More data will be produced in the next five years than in the entire history of human kind, a digital deluge that marks the beginning of the Century of Information. Through a year-long consultation with UK researchers, a coherent strategy has been developed, which will nurture Century-of-Information Research (CIR); it crystallises the ideas developed by the e-Science Directors' Forum Strategy Working Group. This paper is an abridged version of their latest report which can be found at: http://wikis.nesc.ac.uk/escienvoy/Century_of_Information_Research_Strategy which also records the consultation process and the affiliations of the authors. This document is derived from a paper presented at the Oxford e-Research Conference 2008 and takes into account suggestions made in the ensuing panel discussion. The goals of the CIR Strategy are to facilitate the growth of UK research and innovation that is data and computationally intensive and to develop a new culture of 'digital-systems judgement' that will equip research communities, businesses, government and society as a whole, with the skills essential to compete and prosper in the Century of Information. The CIR Strategy identifies a national requirement for a balanced programme of coordination, research, infrastructure, translational investment and education to empower UK researchers, industry, government and society. The Strategy is designed to deliver an environment which meets the needs of UK researchers so that they can respond agilely to challenges, can create knowledge and skills, and can lead new kinds of research. It is a call to action for those engaged in research, those providing data and computational facilities, those governing research and those shaping education policies. The ultimate aim is to help researchers strengthen the international competitiveness of the UK research base and increase its contribution to the economy. The objectives of the Strategy are to better enable UK researchers across all disciplines to contribute world-leading fundamental research; to accelerate the translation of research into practice; and to develop improved capabilities, facilities and context for research and innovation. It envisages a culture that is better able to grasp the opportunities provided by the growing wealth of digital information. Computing has, of course, already become a fundamental tool in all research disciplines. The UK e-Science programme (2001-06)—since emulated internationally—pioneered the invention and use of new research methods, and a new wave of innovations in digital-information technologies which have enabled them. The Strategy argues that the UK must now harness and leverage its own, plus the now global, investment in digital-information technology in order to spread the benefits as widely as possible in research, education, industry and government. Implementing the Strategy would deliver the computational infrastructure and its benefits as envisaged in the Science & Innovation Investment Framework 2004-2014 (July 2004), and in the reports developing those proposals. To achieve this, the Strategy proposes the following actions: support the continuous innovation of digital-information research methods; provide easily used, pervasive and sustained e-Infrastructure for all research; enlarge the productive research community which exploits the new methods efficiently; generate capacity, propagate knowledge and develop skills via new curricula; and develop coordination mechanisms to improve the opportunities for interdisciplinary research and to make digital-infrastructure provision more cost effective. To gain the best value for money strategic coordination is required across a broad spectrum of stakeholders. A coherent strategy is essential in order to establish and sustain the UK as an international leader of well-curated national data assets and computational infrastructure, which is expertly used to shape policy, support decisions, empower researchers and to roll out the results to the wider benefit of society. The value of data as a foundation for wellbeing and a sustainable society must be appreciated; national resources must be more wisely directed to the collection, curation, discovery, widening access, analysis and exploitation of these data. Every researcher must be able to draw on skills, tools and computational resources to develop insights, test hypotheses and translate inventions into productive use, or to extract knowledge in support of governmental decision making. This foundation plus the skills developed will launch significant advances in research, in business, in professional practice and in government with many consequent benefits for UK citizens. The Strategy presented here addresses these complex and interlocking requirements.

Analysis of Pan-European attitudes to the eradication and control of bovine viral diarrhoea

At present, national-level policies concerning the eradication and control of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) differ widely across Europe. Some Scandinavian countries have enacted strong regulatory frameworks to eradicate the disease, whereas other countries have few formal policies. To examine these differences, the attitudes of stakeholders and policy makers in 17 European countries were investigated. A web-based questionnaire was sent to policy makers, government and private sector veterinarians, and representatives of farmers' organisations. On total, 131 individuals responded to the questionnaire and their responses were analysed by applying a method used in sociolinguistics: frame analysis. The results showed that the different attitudes of countries that applied compulsory or voluntary frameworks were associated with different views about the attribution or blame for BVD and the roles ascribed to farmers and other stakeholders in its eradication and control.

Categories of GM risk-benefit perceptions and their antecedents

The stated benefits and perceived risks of genetic modification (GM) cover very diverse issues, such as food safety, world food security, and the environment, that may differentially affect consumer acceptance. In this research, we hypothesize that consumers perceive up to eight dimensions: risks to business (farmers, agribusiness, etc.), benefits to business, risks and benefits to the environment, risks and benefits to the developing world, and risks and benefits to self and family. Moral concerns are also recognized. Using data collected in 2002 in the United States, France, and the UK, we investigate these different dimensions. Second, we analyze the extent to which the dimensions of risk-benefit perceptions can be explained by general attitudes widely used to explain food purchase behavior (such as general attitude to the environment, to technology, etc.), as well as by perceived knowledge of GM, level of education, and trust in various sources of information. In all locations, the majority of consumers only perceive a medium level of risk from GM products. Attitude to technology is the most important attitude variable—those with a positive attitude to technology in general also have a positive attitude to GM technology. More Americans than Europeans fall into this category. Those who trust government and the food industry tend to think GM technology is less risky, whereas those who trust activists believe the opposite. Americans are more trusting of the former, Europeans of the latter. Level of education is positively associated with benefit perceptions and negatively associated with moral concerns. Location continues to play a limited independent role in explaining perceptions even after these factors have been taken into account.

Adapting the homes of older people: A case study of costs and savings

Meeting the demand for independent living from the increasing number of older people presents a major challenge for society, government and the building industry. Older people's experience of disabling conditions can be affected by the design and layout of their accommodation. Adaptations and assistive technology (AT) are a major way of addressing this gap between functional capacity and the built environment. The degree of adaptability and the differences in the average cost of adaptation of different types of property are large and there is major variation within property type. Based on a series of user profiles, it was found that a comprehensive package of adaptations and AT is likely to result in significant economies arising from a reduction in the need for formal care services. This finding is sensitive to assumptions about how long an individual would use the adaptations and AT, as well as to the input of informal care and the nature of their accommodation. The present study, which focused on social housing, has implications for how practitioners specify ways of meeting individual needs as well as providing a case to support the substantial increase in demand for specialist adaptation work.

Doctoral supervision of colleagues: peeling off the veneer of satisfaction and competence

The nexus of teaching, administration and research activities engaged in by academic staff in higher education means that each individual plays a multitude of roles in relation to colleagues, producing inevitable tensions. One role relationship that epitomizes this extraordinary juggling task is that of doctoral supervisor/supervisee, when both are academic staff in the same institution. The last 10 years has seen an upsurge of research interest in doctoral research students, and government and funding bodies have imposed ever more stringent requirements on supervisors. However, staff pairings have been ignored in this literature and research. This article reports on an exploration that seeks to redress this omission by giving voice to the participants (colleague supervisor or research student), allowing them to articulate constructs about what may be unique in the interaction, thus highlighting factors that support or impede success in the enterprise.

Doctoral supervision of colleagues: peeling off the veneer of satisfaction and competence

The nexus of teaching, administration and research activities engaged in by academic staff in higher education means that each individual plays a multitude of roles in relation to colleagues, producing inevitable tensions. One role relationship that epitomizes this extraordinary juggling task is that of doctoral supervisor/supervisee, when both are academic staff in the same institution. The last 10 years has seen an upsurge of research interest in doctoral research students, and government and funding bodies have imposed ever more stringent requirements on supervisors. However, staff pairings have been ignored in this literature and research. This article reports on an exploration that seeks to redress this omission by giving voice to the participants (colleague supervisor or research student), allowing them to articulate constructs about what may be unique in the interaction, thus highlighting factors that support or impede success in the enterprise.

Requirements analysis for an e-government system to support multi-organisational collaborative groups

We present a conceptual architecture for a Group Support System (GSS) to facilitate Multi-Organisational Collaborative Groups (MOCGs) initiated by local government and including external organisations of various types. Multi-Organisational Collaborative Groups (MOCGs) consist of individuals from several organisations which have agreed to work together to solve a problem. The expectation is that more can be achieved working in harmony than separately. Work is done interdependently, rather than independently in diverse directions. Local government, faced with solving complex social problems, deploy MOCGs to enable solutions across organisational, functional, professional and juridical boundaries, by involving statutory, voluntary, community, not-for-profit and private organisations. This is not a silver bullet as it introduces new pressures. Each member organisation has its own goals, operating context and particular approaches, which can be expressed as their norms and business processes. Organisations working together must find ways of eliminating differences or mitigating their impact in order to reduce the risks of collaborative inertia and conflict. A GSS is an electronic collaboration system that facilitates group working and can offer assistance to MOCGs. Since many existing GSSs have been primarily developed for single organisation collaborative groups, even though there are some common issues, there are some difficulties peculiar to MOCGs, and others that they experience to a greater extent: a diversity of primary organisational goals among members; different funding models and other pressures; more significant differences in other information systems both technologically and in their use than single organisations; greater variation in acceptable approaches to solve problems. In this paper, we analyse the requirements of MOCGs led by local government agencies, leading to a conceptual architecture for an e-government GSS that captures the relationships between 'goal', 'context', 'norm', and 'business process'. Our models capture the dynamics of the circumstances surrounding each individual representing an organisation in a MOCG along with the dynamics of the MOCG itself as a separate community.

Trees outside forests and rural livelihoods: a study of Chitwan District, Nepal

Trees outside forests (TOF) in Nepal’s Terai have significantly increased over the past decade. The Chitwan District was one of the focus districts in the Terai Community Forestry Development Project that promoted a tree seedling distribution program. This paper examines the current position of tree integration on farmland and its contribution to livelihoods of rural households in this district. Interviews with local key informants, government and non-government agencies and woodbased industries, as well as an in-depth study of 32 households were used to describe the constraints faced by the households in management of trees on farmland. Most households cited disease, poor growth, lack of preferred tree species, lack of technical support, an uncertain tree market, and lack of financial support as constraints. Despite the important role of trees in subsistence and marketbased rural livelihood diversification, and the consequent reduction in pressure on national forests from on-farm trees, current government policies and practices fail to recognise the value of these trees. It is argued that there is substantial potential for improving on-farm trees to enhance rural livelihoods. A responsive service mechanism centred on tree growing households would help the management of tree resources on the farmland.

Neural competition for conscious representation across time: An fMRI study

Background The information processing capacity of the human mind is limited, as is evidenced by the attentional blink (AB) - a deficit in identifying the second of two temporally-close targets (T1 and T2) embedded in a rapid stream of distracters. Theories of the AB generally agree that it results from competition between stimuli for conscious representation. However, they disagree in the specific mechanisms, in particular about how attentional processing of T1 determines the AB to T2. Methodology/Principal Findings The present study used the high spatial resolution of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the neural mechanisms underlying the AB. Our research approach was to design T1 and T2 stimuli that activate distinguishable brain areas involved in visual categorization and representation. ROI and functional connectivity analyses were then used to examine how attentional processing of T1, as indexed by activity in the T1 representation area, affected T2 processing. Our main finding was that attentional processing of T1 at the level of the visual cortex predicted T2 detection rates Those individuals who activated the T1 encoding area more strongly in blink versus no-blink trials generally detected T2 on a lower percentage of trials. The coupling of activity between T1 and T2 representation areas did not vary as a function of conscious T2 perception. Conclusions/Significance These data are consistent with the notion that the AB is related to attentional demands of T1 for selection, and indicate that these demands are reflected at the level of visual cortex. They also highlight the importance of individual differences in attentional settings in explaining AB task performance.