Assessing macro uncertainty in real-time when data are subject to revision

Model-based estimates of future uncertainty are generally based on the in-sample fit of the model, as when Box-Jenkins prediction intervals are calculated. However, this approach will generate biased uncertainty estimates in real time when there are data revisions. A simple remedy is suggested, and used to generate more accurate prediction intervals for 25 macroeconomic variables, in line with the theory. A simulation study based on an empirically-estimated model of data revisions for US output growth is used to investigate small-sample properties.

Varieties of parliamentarianism

From the start of the English civil war, the parliamentarians were a fragmented coalition, held together by distrust of the king and a belief that Parliament was entitled to lead action to remedy his government’s deficiencies. The driving motivations of parliamentarians were various, including the religious commitments of puritanism, legalistic thought about the ancient constitution, and more radical notions of republicanism or natural rights. Historians have disputed whether parliamentarianism had an inherent strand of radicalism – or radical potential – from the early 1640s, but radicalization certainly took place as the civil wars went on, alongside more ‘conservative’ reactions against the propaganda and wartime measures employed by parliament. Parliamentarian radicalism itself was varied in character, embracing the Levellers’ populism, parliamentary absolutism, and millenarian and providentialist ideas.

Balanced Ocean-Data Assimilation near the Equator

The question is addressed whether using unbalanced updates in ocean-data assimilation schemes for seasonal forecasting systems can result in a relatively poor simulation of zonal currents. An assimilation scheme, where temperature observations are used for updating only the density field, is compared to a scheme where updates of density field and zonal velocities are related by geostrophic balance. This is done for an equatorial linear shallow-water model. It is found that equatorial zonal velocities can be detoriated if velocity is not updated in the assimilation procedure. Adding balanced updates to the zonal velocity is shown to be a simple remedy for the shallow-water model. Next, optimal interpolation (OI) schemes with balanced updates of the zonal velocity are implemented in two ocean general circulation models. First tests indicate a beneficial impact on equatorial upper-ocean zonal currents.