A longitudinal investigation of maternal and child 'anxious cognitions'

Overestimation of threat and underestimation of coping have been frequently reported amongst anxious adults and children. The current study examines the longitudinal relationship between mothers' anxious cognitions and expectations about their child, and children's anxious cognitions. 54 children (aged 10-11 years) and their mothers reported on their interpretation of ambiguous scenarios at two time points. Mothers also reported on their expectations about their child's reaction to ambiguous situations. Significant cross-sectional associations were found between mother and child anticipation of distress. Associations were most consistent between mothers' expectations and children's cognitions. Furthermore, based on regression analyses, mothers' expectations predicted change in children's anxious cognitions over time. Evidence for a reciprocal relationship, that child cognitions predict change in mothers' expectations, was found for girls. The results provide empirical support for potential influences on the development of children's 'anxious cognitive style,' and suggest targets for preventing and reducing maladaptive cognitions in children.

'Anxious cognitions' in children: an exploration of associations and mediators

To investigate sources of influences connecting mothers' and their children's anxious cognitions, 65 children (aged 10 to 11 years) completed self-report measures of anxiety. Children and mothers responded to an ambiguous scenario questionnaire and measures of parenting style and life events. Mothers also reported expectations about their child's reaction to ambiguous situations. Mothers' and children's threat cognitions were significantly correlated (r = .31), and partially mediated by mothers' expectations about their child. Mothers' anticipated distress was associated with expectations for their child's distress, which was associated with the child's own anticipated distress. Parenting and life events were significantly associated with children's interpretative bias, but did not mediate the intergenerational association in interpretative bias. The results suggest influences on children's 'anxious cognitive style' and potential targets for preventing and reducing maladaptive cognitions in children.

A general model of error-prone PCR

In this paper, we generalise a previously-described model of the error-prone polymerase chain reaction (PCR) reaction to conditions of arbitrarily variable amplification efficiency and initial population size. Generalisation of the model to these conditions improves the correspondence to observed and expected behaviours of PCR, and restricts the extent to which the model may explore sequence space for a prescribed set of parameters. Error-prone PCR in realistic reaction conditions is predicted to be less effective at generating grossly divergent sequences than the original model. The estimate of mutation rate per cycle by sampling sequences from an in vitro PCR experiment is correspondingly affected by the choice of model and parameters. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The death of Osama bin Laden - the end of Al-Qaeda's Pan-Islamic ambition?

This paper evaluates the implications of Osama bin Ladin’s death for the future of al-Qaeda’s global jihad. It critically examines the debate as to the make-up of the group and identifies bin Ladin’s primary role as chief ideologue advocating a defensive jihad to liberate the umma. The rationale and appeal of bin Ladin’s message and Muslims’ reaction to both his statements and al-Qaeda’s increasing use of sectarian violence are assessed in the context of Pan-Islam as political ideology. The paper concludes that while the ideal of Islamic unity and the sentiment of Muslim solidarity are unlikely to vanish, al-Qaeda’s violent jihad has not only failed to achieve these goals but has worked against it, thereby confining it to the political margins.

Coping with delays for real-time gaze control (The Fall and Rise of the Smiths Regulator)

In this paper we describe how to cope with the delays inherent in a real time control system for a steerable stereo head/eye platform. A purposive and reactive system requires the use of fast vision algorithms to provide the controller with the error signals to drive the platform. The time-critical implementation of these algorithms is necessary, not only to enable short latency reaction to real world events, but also to provide sufficiently high frequency results with small enough delays that controller remain stable. However, even with precise knowledge of that delay, nonlinearities in the plant make modelling of that plant impossible, thus precluding the use of a Smith Regulator. Moreover, the major delay in the system is in the feedback (image capture and vision processing) rather than feed forward (controller) loop. Delays ranging between 40msecs and 80msecs are common for the simple 2D processes, but might extend to several hundred milliseconds for more sophisticated 3D processes. The strategy presented gives precise control over the gaze direction of the cameras despite the lack of a priori knowledge of the delays involved. The resulting controller is shown to have a similar structure to the Smith Regulator, but with essential modifications.

The information content of REIT credit rating actions and transparency

We examine the short-run and long-run price reaction of equity REIT shares following credit rating actions, testing the transparency of the REIT structure. Generally, the economic effect on the stock price is subdued for both upgrades and downgrades compared to prior literature examining the broader U.S. equity market. An examination of trading volume revealed a significant increase in trading in reaction to downgrade credit rating changes, with a more subdued response to upgrades. The findings support the notion that REITs are more publicly forthcoming about the expectation of positive news in comparison to negative news.

Metabifurcation analysis of a mean field model of the cortex

Mean field models (MFMs) of cortical tissue incorporate salient, average features of neural masses in order to model activity at the population level, thereby linking microscopic physiology to macroscopic observations, e.g., with the electroencephalogram (EEG). One of the common aspects of MFM descriptions is the presence of a high-dimensional parameter space capturing neurobiological attributes deemed relevant to the brain dynamics of interest. We study the physiological parameter space of a MFM of electrocortical activity and discover robust correlations between physiological attributes of the model cortex and its dynamical features. These correlations are revealed by the study of bifurcation plots, which show that the model responses to changes in inhibition belong to two archetypal categories or “families”. After investigating and characterizing them in depth, we discuss their essential differences in terms of four important aspects: power responses with respect to the modeled action of anesthetics, reaction to exogenous stimuli such as thalamic input, and distributions of model parameters and oscillatory repertoires when inhibition is enhanced. Furthermore, while the complexity of sustained periodic orbits differs significantly between families, we are able to show how metamorphoses between the families can be brought about by exogenous stimuli. We here unveil links between measurable physiological attributes of the brain and dynamical patterns that are not accessible by linear methods. They instead emerge when the nonlinear structure of parameter space is partitioned according to bifurcation responses. We call this general method “metabifurcation analysis”. The partitioning cannot be achieved by the investigation of only a small number of parameter sets and is instead the result of an automated bifurcation analysis of a representative sample of 73,454 physiologically admissible parameter sets. Our approach generalizes straightforwardly and is well suited to probing the dynamics of other models with large and complex parameter spaces.

Black carbon vertical profiles strongly affect its radiative forcing uncertainty

The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.

Information and efficiency: goal arrival in soccer betting

An efficient market incorporates news into prices immediately and fully. Tests for efficiency in financial markets have been undermined by information leakage. We test for efficiency in sports betting markets – real-world markets where news breaks remarkably cleanly. Applying a novel identification to high-frequency data, we investigate the reaction of prices to goals scored on the ‘cusp’ of half-time. This strategy allows us to separate the market's response to major news (a goal), from its reaction to the continual flow of minor game-time news. On our evidence, prices update swiftly and fully.

Integrating control and electronics

Previously the author described how control engineering can be introduced using little mathematics in a first year course, the aim being to make the subject accessible across different degrees. One reaction to this was that it was a good idea, but there was not space to include it in the curriculum where, typically control engineering is not introduced until the second year. This paper describes how the author has used a review of the first year teaching to develop a module in which feedback, control and electronics are integrated coherently. This is beneficial as concepts in control and electronics mutually reinforce each other. This has been achieved during a reduction in the available time for teaching the material. This paper describes the strategy used to successfully develop the module, the integrated module and positive student reaction.

Adult palatum as a novel source of neural crest-related stem cells

Somatic neural and neural crest stem cells are promising sources for cellular therapy of several neurodegenerative diseases. However, because of practical considerations such as inadequate accessibility of the source material, the application of neural crest stem cells is strictly limited. The secondary palate is a highly regenerative and heavily innervated tissue, which develops embryonically under direct contribution of neural crest cells. Here, we describe for the first time the presence of nestin-positive neural crest-related stem cells within Meissner corpuscles and Merkel cell-neurite complexes located in the hard palate of adult Wistar rats. After isolation, palatal neural crest-related stem cells (pNC-SCs) were cultivated in the presence of epidermal growth factor and fibroblast growth factor under serum-free conditions, resulting in large amounts of neurospheres. We used immunocytochemical techniques and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction to assess the expression profile of pNC-SCs. In addition to the expression of neural crest stem cell markers such as Nestin, Sox2, and p75, we detected the expression of Klf4, Oct4, and c-Myc. pNC-SCs differentiated efficiently into neuronal and glial cells. Finally, we investigated the potential expression of stemness markers within the human palate. We identified expression of stem cell markers nestin and CD133 and the transcription factors needed for reprogramming of somatic cells into pluripotent cells: Sox2, Oct4, Klf4, and c-Myc. These data show that cells isolated from palatal rugae form neurospheres, are highly plastic, and express neural crest stem cell markers. In addition, pNC-SCs may have the ability to differentiate into functional neurons and glial cells, serving as a starting point for therapeutic studies.

Intuitions, disagreement and referential pluralism

Mallon, Machery, Nichols and Stich (Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 79: 332–356, 2009) argue that the use of intuitions in the philosophy of reference is problematic as recent studies show intuitions about reference vary both within and between cultures. I use some ideas from the recent literature on disagreement and truth relativism to shed light on the debate concerning the appropriate reaction to these studies. Mallon et al. argue that variation is problematic because if one tries to use intuitions which vary to find the correct theory of reference one will end up endorsing an absurd position: referential pluralism. I argue that there is hope for intuition-based philosophy of reference. One can avoid endorsing referential pluralism (as Mallon et al. understand it). Furthermore, referential pluralism may not be so absurd after all.

The effect of financial leverage on real and accrual-based earnings management

Past research has documented a substitution effect between real earnings management (RM) and accrual-based earnings management (AM), depending on relative costs. This study contributes to this research by examining whether levels of (and changes in) financial leverage have an impact on this empirically documented trade-off. We hypothesise that in the presence of high leverage, firms that engage in earnings manipulation tactics will exhibit a preference for RM due to a lower possibility—and subsequent costs—of getting caught. We show that leverage levels and increases positively and significantly affect upward RM, with no significant effect on income-increasing AM, while our findings point towards a complementarity effect between unexpected levels of RM and AM for firms with very high leverage levels and changes. This is interpreted as an indication that high leverage could attract heavy outsider scrutiny, making it necessary for firms to use both forms of earnings management in order to achieve earnings targets. Furthermore, we document that equity investors exhibit a significantly stronger penalising reaction to AM vs. RM, indicating that leverage-induced RM is not as easily detectable by market participants as debt-induced AM, despite the fact that the former could imply deviation from optimal business practices.