The effect of a large freshwater perturbation on the glacial north Atlantic Ocean using a coupled general circulation model

The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the "strength of the overturning circulation" is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors' model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project's reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.

Parametric accelerated failure time models with random effects and an application to kidney transplant survival

Accelerated failure time models with a shared random component are described, and are used to evaluate the effect of explanatory factors and different transplant centres on survival times following kidney transplantation. Different combinations of the distribution of the random effects and baseline hazard function are considered and the fit of such models to the transplant data is critically assessed. A mixture model that combines short- and long-term components of a hazard function is then developed, which provides a more flexible model for the hazard function. The model can incorporate different explanatory variables and random effects in each component. The model is straightforward to fit using standard statistical software, and is shown to be a good fit to the transplant data. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Effect of citric acid and glycine addition on acrylamide and flavor in a potato model system

Acrylamide levels in cooked/processed food can be reduced by treatment with citric acid or glycine. In a potato model system cooked at 180 degrees C for 10-60 min, these treatments affected the volatile profiles. Strecker aldehydes and alkylpyrazines, key flavor compounds of cooked potato, were monitored. Citric acid limited the generation of volatiles, particularly the alkylpyrazines. Glycine increased the total volatile yield by promoting the formation of certain alkylpyrazines, namely, 2,3-dimethylpyrazine, trimethylpyrazine, 2-ethyl-3,5-dimethylpyrazine, tetramethylpyrazine, and 2,5-diethyl-3- methylpyrazine. However, the formation of other pyrazines and Strecker aldehydes was suppressed. It was proposed that the opposing effects of these treatments on total volatile yield may be used to best advantage by employing a combined treatment at lower concentrations, especially as both treatments were found to have an additive effect in reducing acrylamide. This would minimize the impact on flavor but still achieve the desired reduction in acrylamide levels.

Investigations on the effect of amino acids on acrylamide, pyrazines, and Michael addition products in model systems

Acrylamide and pyrazine formation, as influenced by the incorporation of different amino acids, was investigated in sealed low-moisture asparagine-glucose model systems. Added amino acids, with the exception of glycine and cysteine and at an equimolar concentration to asparagine, increased the rate of acrylamide formation. The strong correlation between the unsubstituted pyrazine and acrylamide suggests the promotion of the formation of Maillard reaction intermediates, and in particular glyoxal, as the determining mode of-action. At increased amino acid concentrations, diverse effects were observed. The initial rates of acrylamide formation remained high for valine, alanine, phenylalanine, tryptophan, glutamine, and Ieucine, while a significant mitigating effect, as evident from the acrylamide yields after 60 min of heating at 160 degrees C, was observed for proline, tryptophan, glycine, and cysteine. The secondary amine containing amino acids, proline and tryptophan, had the most profound mitigating effect on acrylamide after 60 min of heating. The relative importance of the competing effect of added amino acids for alpha-dicarbonyls and acrylamide-amino, acid alkylation reactions is discussed and accompanied by data on the relative formation rates of selected amino acid-AA adducts.

Effect of fecal water on an in vitro model of colonic mucosal barrier function

Fecal water (FW) has been shown to exert, in cultured cells, cytotoxic and genotoxic effects that have implications for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. We have investigated a further biological activity of FW, namely, the ability to affect gap junctions in CACO2 cell monolayers as an index of mucosal barrier function, which is known to be disrupted in cancer. FW samples fi-om healthy, free-living, European subjects that were divided into two broad age groups, adult (40 +/- 9.7 yr; n = 53) and elderly (76 +/- 7.5 yr; n = 55) were tested for effects on gap junction using the transepithelial resistance (TER) assay. Overall, treatment of CACO2 cells with FW samples fi-om adults increased TER (+ 4 %), whereas FW from elderly subjects decreased TER (-5%); the difference between the two groups was significant (P < 0.05). We also measured several components of FW potentially associated with modulation of TER, namely, short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) and ammonia. SCFAs (propionic, acetic, and n-butyric) were significantly lower in the elderly population (-30%, -35%, and -21%, respectively, all P pound 0.01). We consider that FW modulation of in vitro epithelial barrier function is a potentially useful noninvasive biomarker, but it requires further validation to establish its relationship to CRC risk.

Synergistic effect of BSA on antioxidant activities in model food emulsions

Sunflower oil-in-water emulsions containing TBHQ, caffeic acid, epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG), or 6-hydroxy-2,5,7,8-tetramethylchroman-2-carboxylic acid (Trolox), both with and without BSA, were stored at 50 and 30degreesC. Oxidation of the oil was monitored by determination of the PV, conjugated diene content, and hexanal formation. Emulsions containing EGCG, caffeic acid, and, to a lesser extent, Trolox were much more stable during storage in the presence of BSA than in its absence even though BSA itself did not provide an antioxidant effect. BSA did not have a synergistic effect on the antioxidant activity of TBHQ. The BSA structure changed, with a considerable loss of fluorescent tryptophan groups during storage of solutions containing BSA and antioxidants, and a BSA-antioxidant adduct with radical-scavenging activity was formed. The highest radical-scavenging activity observed was for the isolated protein from a sample containing EGCG and BSA incubated at 30degreesC for 10 d. This fraction contained unchanged BSA as well as BSA-antioxidant adduct, but 95.7% of the initial fluorescence had been lost, showing that most of the BSA had been altered. It can be concluded that BSA exerts its synergistic effect with antioxidants because of formation of a protein-antioxidant adduct during storage, which is concentrated at the oil-water interface owing to the surface-active nature of the protein.

Effect of improving representation of horizontal and vertical cloud structure on the Earth's global radiation budget. Part I: review and parametrization

A poor representation of cloud structure in a general circulation model (GCM) is widely recognised as a potential source of error in the radiation budget. Here, we develop a new way of representing both horizontal and vertical cloud structure in a radiation scheme. This combines the ‘Tripleclouds’ parametrization, which introduces inhomogeneity by using two cloudy regions in each layer as opposed to one, each with different water content values, with ‘exponential-random’ overlap, in which clouds in adjacent layers are not overlapped maximally, but according to a vertical decorrelation scale. This paper, Part I of two, aims to parametrize the two effects such that they can be used in a GCM. To achieve this, we first review a number of studies for a globally applicable value of fractional standard deviation of water content for use in Tripleclouds. We obtain a value of 0.75 ± 0.18 from a variety of different types of observations, with no apparent dependence on cloud type or gridbox size. Then, through a second short review, we create a parametrization of decorrelation scale for use in exponential-random overlap, which varies the scale linearly with latitude from 2.9 km at the Equator to 0.4 km at the poles. When applied to radar data, both components are found to have radiative impacts capable of offsetting biases caused by cloud misrepresentation. Part II of this paper implements Tripleclouds and exponential-random overlap into a radiation code and examines both their individual and combined impacts on the global radiation budget using re-analysis data.

Effect of improving representation of horizontal and vertical cloud structure on the Earth's global radiation budget. Part II: The global effects

Reliably representing both horizontal cloud inhomogeneity and vertical cloud overlap is fundamentally important for the radiation budget of a general circulation model. Here, we build on the work of Part One of this two-part paper by applying a pair of parameterisations that account for horizontal inhomogeneity and vertical overlap to global re-analysis data. These are applied both together and separately in an attempt to quantify the effects of poor representation of the two components on radiation budget. Horizontal inhomogeneity is accounted for using the “Tripleclouds” scheme, which uses two regions of cloud in each layer of a gridbox as opposed to one; vertical overlap is accounted for using “exponential-random” overlap, which aligns vertically continuous cloud according to a decorrelation height. These are applied to a sample of scenes from a year of ERA-40 data. The largest radiative effect of horizontal inhomogeneity is found to be in areas of marine stratocumulus; the effect of vertical overlap is found to be fairly uniform, but with larger individual short-wave and long-wave effects in areas of deep, tropical convection. The combined effect of the two parameterisations is found to reduce the magnitude of the net top-of-atmosphere cloud radiative forcing (CRF) by 2.25 W m−2, with shifts of up to 10 W m−2 in areas of marine stratocumulus. The effects of the uncertainty in our parameterisations on radiation budget is also investigated. It is found that the uncertainty in the impact of horizontal inhomogeneity is of order ±60%, while the uncertainty in the impact of vertical overlap is much smaller. This suggests an insensitivity of the radiation budget to the exact nature of the global decorrelation height distribution derived in Part One.

Neural networks for identification of nonlinear systems under random piecewise polynomial disturbances

The problem of identification of a nonlinear dynamic system is considered. A two-layer neural network is used for the solution of the problem. Systems disturbed with unmeasurable noise are considered, although it is known that the disturbance is a random piecewise polynomial process. Absorption polynomials and nonquadratic loss functions are used to reduce the effect of this disturbance on the estimates of the optimal memory of the neural-network model.

The effect of nonlinearity on the variational assimilation of satellite observations using a simple column model

Cloud imagery is not currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extract the type of dynamical information that experienced forecasters have extracted subjectively for many years. For example, rapidly developing mid-latitude cyclones have characteristic signatures in the cloud imagery that are most fully appreciated from a sequence of images rather than from a single image. The Met Office is currently developing a technique to extract dynamical development information from satellite imagery using their full incremental 4D-Var (four-dimensional variational data assimilation) system. We investigate a simplified form of this technique in a fully nonlinear framework. We convert information on the vertical wind field, w(z), and profiles of temperature, T(z, t), and total water content, qt (z, t), as functions of height, z, and time, t, to a single brightness temperature by defining a 2D (vertical and time) variational assimilation testbed. The profiles of w, T and qt are updated using a simple vertical advection scheme. We define a basic cloud scheme to obtain the fractional cloud amount and, when combined with the temperature field, we convert this information into a brightness temperature, having developed a simple radiative transfer scheme. With the exception of some matrix inversion routines, all our code is developed from scratch. Throughout the development process we test all aspects of our 2D assimilation system, and then run identical twin experiments to try and recover information on the vertical velocity, from a sequence of observations of brightness temperature. This thesis contains a comprehensive description of our nonlinear models and assimilation system, and the first experimental results.

Validating the reported random errors of ACE‐FTS measurements

In order to validate the reported precision of space‐based atmospheric composition measurements, validation studies often focus on measurements in the tropical stratosphere, where natural variability is weak. The scatter in tropical measurements can then be used as an upper limit on single‐profile measurement precision. Here we introduce a method of quantifying the scatter of tropical measurements which aims to minimize the effects of short‐term atmospheric variability while maintaining large enough sample sizes that the results can be taken as representative of the full data set. We apply this technique to measurements of O3, HNO3, CO, H2O, NO, NO2, N2O, CH4, CCl2F2, and CCl3F produced by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment–Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE‐FTS). Tropical scatter in the ACE‐FTS retrievals is found to be consistent with the reported random errors (RREs) for H2O and CO at altitudes above 20 km, validating the RREs for these measurements. Tropical scatter in measurements of NO, NO2, CCl2F2, and CCl3F is roughly consistent with the RREs as long as the effect of outliers in the data set is reduced through the use of robust statistics. The scatter in measurements of O3, HNO3, CH4, and N2O in the stratosphere, while larger than the RREs, is shown to be consistent with the variability simulated in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. This result implies that, for these species, stratospheric measurement scatter is dominated by natural variability, not random error, which provides added confidence in the scientific value of single‐profile measurements.

Comparison of the radiative properties and direct radiative effect of aerosols from a global aerosol model and remote sensing data over ocean

A global aerosol transport model (Oslo CTM2) with main aerosol components included is compared to five satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and one data set of the satellite-derived radiative effect of aerosols. The model is driven with meteorological data for the period November 1996 to June 1997 which is the time period investigated in this study. The modelled AOD is within the range of the AOD from the various satellite retrievals over oceanic regions. The direct radiative effect of the aerosols as well as the atmospheric absorption by aerosols are in both cases found to be of the order of 20 Wm−2 in certain regions in both the satellite-derived and the modelled estimates as a mean over the period studied. Satellite and model data exhibit similar patterns of aerosol optical depth, radiative effect of aerosols, and atmospheric absorption of the aerosols. Recently published results show that global aerosol models have a tendency to underestimate the magnitude of the clear-sky direct radiative effect of aerosols over ocean compared to satellite-derived estimates. However, this is only to a small extent the case with the Oslo CTM2. The global mean direct radiative effect of aerosols over ocean is modelled with the Oslo CTM2 to be –5.5 Wm−2 and the atmospheric aerosol absorption 1.5 Wm−2.

The effect of increased convective entrainment on Asian monsoon biases in the MetUM General Circulation Model

We demonstrate that summer precipitation biases in the South Asian monsoon domain are sensitive to increasing the convective parametrisation’s entrainment and detrainment rates in the Met Office Unified Model. We explore this sensitivity to improve our understanding of the biases and inform efforts to improve convective parametrisation. We perform novel targeted experiments in which we increase the entrainment and detrainment rates in regions of especially large precipitation bias. We use these experiments to determine whether the sensitivity at a given location is a consequence of the local change to convection or is a remote response to the change elsewhere. We find that a local change leads to different mean-state responses in comparable regions. When the entrainment and detrainment rates are increased globally, feedbacks between regions usually strengthen the local responses. We choose two regions of tropical ascent that show different mean-state responses, the western equatorial Indian Ocean and western north Pacific, and analyse them as case studies to determine the mechanisms leading to the different responses. Our results indicate that several aspects of a region’s mean-state, including moisture content, sea surface temperature and circulation, play a role in local feedbacks that determine the response to increased entrainment and detrainment.