The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions

14C-dated pollen and lake-level data from Europe are used to assess the spatial patterns of climate change between 6000 yr BP and present, as simulated by the NCAR CCM1 (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, version 1) in response to the change in the Earth’s orbital parameters during this perod. First, reconstructed 6000 yr BP values of bioclimate variables obtained from pollen and lake-level data with the constrained-analogue technique are compared with simulated values. Then a 6000 yr BP biome map obtained from pollen data with an objective biome reconstruction (biomization) technique is compared with BIOME model results derived from the same simulation. Data and simulations agree in some features: warmer-than-present growing seasons in N and C Europe allowed forests to extend further north and to higher elevations than today, and warmer winters in C and E Europe prevented boreal conifers from spreading west. More generally, however, the agreement is poor. Predominantly deciduous forest types in Fennoscandia imply warmer winters than the model allows. The model fails to simulate winters cold enough, or summers wet enough, to allow temperate deciduous forests their former extended distribution in S Europe, and it incorrectly simulates a much expanded area of steppe vegetation in SE Europe. Similar errors have also been noted in numerous 6000 yr BP simulations with prescribed modern sea surface temperatures. These errors are evidently not resolved by the inclusion of interactive sea-surface conditions in the CCM1. Accurate representation of mid-Holocene climates in Europe may require the inclusion of dynamical ocean–atmosphere and/or vegetation–atmosphere interactions that most palaeoclimate model simulations have so far disregarded.

Simulation of long-term thermal characteristics of three Estonian lakes

A one-dimensional surface energy-balance lake model, coupled to a thermodynamic model of lake ice, is used to simulate variations in the temperature of and evaporation from three Estonian lakes: Karujärv, Viljandi and Kirjaku. The model is driven by daily climate data, derived by cubic-spline interpolation from monthly mean data, and was run for periods of 8 years (Kirjaku) up to 30 years (Viljandi). Simulated surface water temperature is in good agreement with observations: mean differences between simulated and observed temperatures are from −0.8°C to +0.1°C. The simulated duration of snow and ice cover is comparable with observed. However, the model generally underpredicts ice thickness and overpredicts snow depth. Sensitivity analyses suggest that the model results are robust across a wide range (0.1–2.0 m−1) of lake extinction coefficient: surface temperature differs by less than 0.5°C between extreme values of the extinction coefficient. The model results are more sensitive to snow and ice albedos. However, changing the snow (0.2–0.9) and ice (0.15–0.55) albedos within realistic ranges does not improve the simulations of snow depth and ice thickness. The underestimation of ice thickness is correlated with the overestimation of snow cover, since a thick snow layer insulates the ice and limits ice formation. The overestimation of snow cover results from the assumption that all the simulated winter precipitation occurs as snow, a direct consequence of using daily climate data derived by interpolation from mean monthly data.

COCO-2: a model to assess the economic impact of an accident

COCO-2 is a model for assessing the potential economic costs likely to arise off-site following an accident at a nuclear reactor. COCO-2 builds on work presented in the model COCO-1 developed in 1991 by considering economic effects in more detail, and by including more sources of loss. Of particular note are: the consideration of the directly affected local economy, indirect losses that stem from the directly affected businesses, losses due to changes in tourism consumption, integration with the large body of work on recovery after an accident and a more systematic approach to health costs. The work, where possible, is based on official data sources for reasons of traceability, maintenance and ease of future development. This report describes the methodology and discusses the results of an example calculation. Guidance on how the base economic data can be updated in the future is also provided.

U.K. HiGEM: The New U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model—Model Description and Basic Evaluation

This article describes the development and evaluation of the U.K.’s new High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM), which is based on the latest climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model, known as the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 1 (HadGEM1). In HiGEM, the horizontal resolution has been increased to 0.83° latitude × 1.25° longitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3° × 1/3° globally for the ocean. Multidecadal integrations of HiGEM, and the lower-resolution HadGEM, are used to explore the impact of resolution on the fidelity of climate simulations. Generally, SST errors are reduced in HiGEM. Cold SST errors associated with the path of the North Atlantic drift improve, and warm SST errors are reduced in upwelling stratocumulus regions where the simulation of low-level cloud is better at higher resolution. The ocean model in HiGEM allows ocean eddies to be partially resolved, which dramatically improves the representation of sea surface height variability. In the Southern Ocean, most of the heat transports in HiGEM is achieved by resolved eddy motions, which replaces the parameterized eddy heat transport in the lower-resolution model. HiGEM is also able to more realistically simulate small-scale features in the wind stress curl around islands and oceanic SST fronts, which may have implications for oceanic upwelling and ocean biology. Higher resolution in both the atmosphere and the ocean allows coupling to occur on small spatial scales. In particular, the small-scale interaction recently seen in satellite imagery between the atmosphere and tropical instability waves in the tropical Pacific Ocean is realistically captured in HiGEM. Tropical instability waves play a role in improving the simulation of the mean state of the tropical Pacific, which has important implications for climate variability. In particular, all aspects of the simulation of ENSO (spatial patterns, the time scales at which ENSO occurs, and global teleconnections) are much improved in HiGEM.

The turnover of organic carbon in subsoils. Part 2. Modelling carbon turnover

A new model, RothPC-1, is described for the turnover of organic C in the top metre of soil. RothPC-1 is a version of RothC-26.3, an earlier model for the turnover of C in topsoils. In RothPC-1 two extra parameters are used to model turnover in the top metre of soil: one, p, which moves organic C down the profile by an advective process, and the other, s, which slows decomposition with depth. RothPC-1 is parameterized and tested using measurements (described in Part 1, this issue) of total organic C and radiocarbon on soil profiles from the Rothamsted long-term field experiments, collected over a period of more than 100 years. RothPC-1 gives fits to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon in the 0-23, 23-46, 46-69 and 69-92 cm layers of soil that are almost all within (or close to) measurement error in two areas of regenerating woodland (Geescroft and Broadbalk Wildernesses) and an area of cultivated land from the Broadbalk Continuous Wheat Experiment. The fits to old grassland (the Park Grass Experiment) are less close. Two other sites that provide the requisite pre- and post-bomb data are also fitted; a prairie Chernozem from Russia and an annual grassland from California. Roth-PC-1 gives a close fit to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon down the Chernozem profile, provided that allowance is made for soil age; with the annual grassland the fit is acceptable in the upper part of the profile, but not in the clay-rich Bt horizon below. Calculations suggest that treating the top metre of soil as a homogeneous unit will greatly overestimate the effects of global warming in accelerating the decomposition of soil C and hence on the enhanced release of CO2 from soil organic matter; more realistic estimates will be obtained from multi-layer models such as RothPC-1.

A weaker Agulhas Current leads to more Agulhas leakage

Time series of transports in the Agulhas region have been constructed by simulating Lagrangian drifter trajectories in a 1/10 degree two-way nested ocean model. Using these 34 year long time series it is shown that smaller (larger) Agulhas Current transport leads to larger (smaller) Indian-Atlantic inter-ocean exchange. When transport is low, the Agulhas Current detaches farther downstream from the African continental slope. Moreover, the lower inertia suppresses generation of anti-cyclonic vorticity. These two effects cause the Agulhas retroflection to move westward and enhance Agulhas leakage. In the model a 1 Sv decrease in Agulhas Current transport at 32°S results in a 0.7 ± 0.2 Sv increase in Agulhas leakage.

Heat shock protein 27 is the major differentially phosphorylated protein involved in renal epithelial cellular stress response and controls focal adhesion organization and apoptosis

We used two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis to determine early changes in the stress-response pathways that precede focal adhesion disorganization linked to the onset of apoptosis of renal epithelial cells. Treatment of LLC-PK1 cells with the model nephrotoxicant 1,2-(dichlorovinyl)-L-cysteine (DCVC) resulted in a >1.5-fold up- and down-regulation of 14 and 9 proteins, respectively, preceding the onset of apoptosis. Proteins included those involved in metabolism, i.e. aconitase and pyruvate dehydrogenase, and those related to stress responses and cytoskeletal reorganization, i.e. cofilin, Hsp27, and alpha-b-crystallin. The most prominent changes were found for Hsp27, which was related to a pI shift in association with an altered phosphorylation status of serine residue 82. Although both p38 and JNK were activated by DCVC, only inhibition of p38 with SB203580 reduced Hsp27 phosphorylation, which was associated with accelerated reorganization of focal adhesions, cell detachment, and apoptosis. In contrast, inhibition of JNK with SP600125 maintained cell adhesion as well as protection against apoptosis. Active JNK co-localized at focal adhesions after DCVC treatment in a FAK-dependent manner. Inhibition of active JNK localization at focal adhesions did not prevent DCVC-induced phosphorylation of Hsp27. Overexpression of a phosphorylation-defective mutant Hsp27 acted as a dominant negative and accelerated the DCVC-induced changes in the focal adhesions as well as the onset of apoptosis. Our data fit a model whereby early p38 activation results in a rapid phosphorylation of Hsp27, a requirement for proper maintenance of cell adhesion, thus suppressing renal epithelial cell apoptosis.

Heat shock protein 27 is the major differentially phosphorylated protein involved in renal epithelial cellular stress response and controls focal adhesion organization and apoptosis

We used two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis to determine early changes in the stress-response pathways that precede focal adhesion disorganization linked to the onset of apoptosis of renal epithelial cells. Treatment of LLC-PK1 cells with the model nephrotoxicant 1,2-(dichlorovinyl)-L-cysteine ( DCVC) resulted in a > 1.5-fold up- and down-regulation of 14 and 9 proteins, respectively, preceding the onset of apoptosis. Proteins included those involved in metabolism, i.e. aconitase and pyruvate dehydrogenase, and those related to stress responses and cytoskeletal reorganization, i.e. cofilin, Hsp27, and alpha-b-crystallin. The most prominent changes were found for Hsp27, which was related to a pI shift in association with an altered phosphorylation status of serine residue 82. Although both p38 and JNK were activated by DCVC, only inhibition of p38 with SB203580 reduced Hsp27 phosphorylation, which was associated with accelerated reorganization of focal adhesions, cell detachment, and apoptosis. In contrast, inhibition of JNK with SP600125 maintained cell adhesion as well as protection against apoptosis. Active JNK co-localized at focal adhesions after DCVC treatment in a FAK-dependent manner. Inhibition of active JNK localization at focal adhesions did not prevent DCVC-induced phosphorylation of Hsp27. Overexpression of a phosphorylation-defective mutant Hsp27 acted as a dominant negative and accelerated the DCVC-induced changes in the focal adhesions as well as the onset of apoptosis. Our data fit a model whereby early p38 activation results in a rapid phosphorylation of Hsp27, a requirement for proper maintenance of cell adhesion, thus suppressing renal epithelial cell apoptosis.

An optimized reverse-phase high performance liquid chromatographic method for evaluating percutaneous absorption of glucosamine hydrochloride

A relatively simple, selective, precise and accurate high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method based on a reaction of phenylisothiocyanate (PITC) with glucosamine (GL) in alkaline media was developed and validated to determine glucosamine hydrochloride permeating through human skin in vitro. It is usually problematic to develop an accurate assay for chemicals traversing skin because the excellent barrier properties of the tissue ensure that only low amounts of the material pass through the membrane and skin components may leach out of the tissue to interfere with the analysis. In addition, in the case of glucosamine hydrochloride, chemical instability adds further complexity to assay development. The assay, utilising the PITC-GL reaction was refined by optimizing the reaction temperature, reaction time and PITC concentration. The reaction produces a phenylthiocarbarnyl-glucosamine (PTC-GL) adduct which was separated on a reverse-phase (RP) column packed with 5 mu m ODS (C-18) Hypersil particles using a diode array detector (DAD) at 245 nm. The mobile phase was methanol-water-glacial acetic acid (10:89.96:0.04 v/v/v, pH 3.5) delivered to the column at 1 ml min(-1) and the column temperature was maintained at 30 degrees C Using a saturated aqueous solution of glucosamine hydrochloride, in vitro permeation studies were performed at 32 +/- 1 degrees C over 48 h using human epidermal membranes prepared by a heat separation method and mounted in Franz-type diffusion cells with a diffusional area 2.15 +/- 0.1 cm(2). The optimum derivatisation reaction conditions for reaction temperature, reaction time and PITC concentration were found to be 80 degrees C, 30 min and 1 % v/v, respectively. PTC-Gal and GL adducts eluted at 8.9 and 9.7 min, respectively. The detector response was found to be linear in the concentration range 0-1000 mu g ml(-1). The assay was robust with intra- and inter-day precisions (described as a percentage of relative standard deviation, %R.S.D.) < 12. Intra- and inter-day accuracy (as a percentage of the relative error, %RE) was <=-5.60 and <=-8.00, respectively. Using this assay, it was found that GL-HCI permeates through human skin with a flux 1.497 +/- 0.42 mu g cm(-2) h(-1), a permeability coefficient of 5.66 +/- 1.6 x 10(-6) cm h(-1) and with a lag time of 10.9 +/- 4.6 h. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crystal structures of [PhLi center dot(-)-sparteine](2), [PhOLi center dot(-)-sparteine](2), and the mixed aggregate [PhLi center dot PhOLi center dot 2(-)-sparteine]

Crystal structure determination of adducts of sparteine and PhLi, (-)-sparteine and PhOLi and of sparteine and PhLi/PhOLi reveal a four-membered ring with two lithium centers, each capped by a (-)-sparteine ligand, as central motif of all structure. Quantum-chemical calculations show that the mixed aggregate [PhLi center dot PhOLi center dot 2(-)-sparteine] is energetically more favorable than the model system {1/2[PhLi center dot(-)-sparteine](2) + 1/2[PhOLi center dot(-)-sparteine](2)}.

Land-cover classification from airborne LIDAR data fused with aerial optical images

Airborne LIght Detection And Ranging (LIDAR) provides accurate height information for objects on the earth, which makes LIDAR become more and more popular in terrain and land surveying. In particular, LIDAR data offer vital and significant features for land-cover classification which is an important task in many application domains. In this paper, an unsupervised approach based on an improved fuzzy Markov random field (FMRF) model is developed, by which the LIDAR data, its co-registered images acquired by optical sensors, i.e. aerial color image and near infrared image, and other derived features are fused effectively to improve the ability of the LIDAR system for the accurate land-cover classification. In the proposed FMRF model-based approach, the spatial contextual information is applied by modeling the image as a Markov random field (MRF), with which the fuzzy logic is introduced simultaneously to reduce the errors caused by the hard classification. Moreover, a Lagrange-Multiplier (LM) algorithm is employed to calculate a maximum A posteriori (MAP) estimate for the classification. The experimental results have proved that fusing the height data and optical images is particularly suited for the land-cover classification. The proposed approach works very well for the classification from airborne LIDAR data fused with its coregistered optical images and the average accuracy is improved to 88.9%.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

An effective approach for land-cover classification from airborne lidar fused with co-registered data

Airborne lidar provides accurate height information of objects on the earth and has been recognized as a reliable and accurate surveying tool in many applications. In particular, lidar data offer vital and significant features for urban land-cover classification, which is an important task in urban land-use studies. In this article, we present an effective approach in which lidar data fused with its co-registered images (i.e. aerial colour images containing red, green and blue (RGB) bands and near-infrared (NIR) images) and other derived features are used effectively for accurate urban land-cover classification. The proposed approach begins with an initial classification performed by the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence with a specifically designed basic probability assignment function. It outputs two results, i.e. the initial classification and pseudo-training samples, which are selected automatically according to the combined probability masses. Second, a support vector machine (SVM)-based probability estimator is adopted to compute the class conditional probability (CCP) for each pixel from the pseudo-training samples. Finally, a Markov random field (MRF) model is established to combine spatial contextual information into the classification. In this stage, the initial classification result and the CCP are exploited. An efficient belief propagation (EBP) algorithm is developed to search for the global minimum-energy solution for the maximum a posteriori (MAP)-MRF framework in which three techniques are developed to speed up the standard belief propagation (BP) algorithm. Lidar and its co-registered data acquired by Toposys Falcon II are used in performance tests. The experimental results prove that fusing the height data and optical images is particularly suited for urban land-cover classification. There is no training sample needed in the proposed approach, and the computational cost is relatively low. An average classification accuracy of 93.63% is achieved.

Impact of anthropogenic heat emissions on London's temperatures

We investigate the role of the anthropogenic heat flux on the urban heat island of London. To do this, the time-varying anthropogenic heat flux is added to an urban surface-energy balance parametrization, the Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme (MORUSES), implemented in a 1 km resolution version of the UK Met Office Unified Model. The anthropogenic heat flux is derived from energy-demand data for London and is specified on the model's 1 km grid; it includes variations on diurnal and seasonal time-scales. We contrast a spring case with a winter case, to illustrate the effects of the larger anthropogenic heat flux in winter and the different roles played by thermodynamics in the different seasons. The surface-energy balance channels the anthropogenic heat into heating the urban surface, which warms slowly because of the large heat capacity of the urban surface. About one third of this additional warming goes into increasing the outgoing long-wave radiation and only about two thirds goes into increasing the sensible heat flux that warms the atmosphere. The anthropogenic heat flux has a larger effect on screen-level temperatures in the winter case, partly because the anthropogenic flux is larger then and partly because the boundary layer is shallower in winter. For the specific winter case studied here, the anthropogenic heat flux maintains a well-mixed boundary layer through the whole night over London, whereas the surrounding rural boundary layer becomes strongly stably stratified. This finding is likely to have important implications for air quality in winter. On the whole, inclusion of the anthropogenic heat flux improves the comparison between model simulations and measurements of screen-level temperature slightly and indicates that the anthropogenic heat flux is beginning to be an important factor in the London urban heat island.

Time and the price impact of a trade

We use Hasbrouck's (1991) vector autoregressive model for prices and trades to empirically test and assess the role played by the waiting time between consecutive transactions in the process of price formation. We find that as the time duration between transactions decreases, the price impact of trades, the speed of price adjustment to trade‐related information, and the positive autocorrelation of signed trades all increase. This suggests that times when markets are most active are times when there is an increased presence of informed traders; we interpret such markets as having reduced liquidity.