Global oil production: forecasts and methodologies

A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast: group 1-quantitative analyses which predict that global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020; group 2-forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast's time horizon (typically 2020 or 2030); group 3-nonquantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future. The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

Reconstruction of gusty wind speed time series from autonomous data logger records

The collection of wind speed time series by means of digital data loggers occurs in many domains, including civil engineering, environmental sciences and wind turbine technology. Since averaging intervals are often significantly larger than typical system time scales, the information lost has to be recovered in order to reconstruct the true dynamics of the system. In the present work we present a simple algorithm capable of generating a real-time wind speed time series from data logger records containing the average, maximum, and minimum values of the wind speed in a fixed interval, as well as the standard deviation. The signal is generated from a generalized random Fourier series. The spectrum can be matched to any desired theoretical or measured frequency distribution. Extreme values are specified through a postprocessing step based on the concept of constrained simulation. Applications of the algorithm to 10-min wind speed records logged at a test site at 60 m height above the ground show that the recorded 10-min values can be reproduced by the simulated time series to a high degree of accuracy.

Provenance of chalk tesserae from a Roman town-house in Vine Street, Leicester

Fourth-century a.d. chalk tesserae from Roman Leicester (Ratae Corieltavorum) yield rich microfossil assemblages that identify a biostratigraphical age of Cretaceous Late Cenomanian to Early Turonian. The nearest chalk outcrops to Leicester lie in Hertfordshire, Lincolnshire, Yorkshire and north Norfolk, indicating that the material for the tesserae must have been sourced remotely and transported to Ratae. Superimposing the Roman road network onto a map of the relevant Chalk Group distribution provides a guide to possible sources. A process of evaluation identifies Baldock in Hertfordshire and Bridlington in Yorkshire as the most likely sources for the Leicester tesserae.

Social entrepreneurship in Sub-Saharan Africa

Responding to calls for a better understanding of the relationship between social enterprises and their environments, this article focuses on contextual influences on social entrepreneurship in sub-Saharan Africa. We identify four predominantly African contextual dimensions, i.e., acute poverty, informality, colonial history, and ethnic group identity, and explore their influence on the way social ventures perceive themselves and on their choice of activities. Our empirical study of 384 social enterprises from 19 sub-Saharan African countries suggests that ethnic group identity and high poverty levels influence both self-perception and activity choices, while the country’s colonial history only influences self-perception and informality has no significant influence on either. These findings point to the need to consider both self-perception and the choice of activities in defining social entrepreneurship. Our study also highlights the importance of African contextual dimensions for understanding social entrepreneurship, and underlines the added value of incorporating insights from African data into management research more broadly.

Carotenoids but not flavonoids are associated with improvements in spatial working memory in younger adults in a flavonoid-rich v. -poor fruit and vegetable intervention study

Findings from animal studies suggest that components of fruit and vegetables (F&V) may protect against, and even reverse, age-related decline(1,2) in aspects of cognitive functioning such as spatial working memory (SWM). Human subjects in vivo and in vitro studies indicate that anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidant and cell-signalling properties of flavonoids and carotenoids, non-nutrient components of F&V, may underpin this protective effect(3–5). The Flavonoid University of Reading Study (FLAVURS), designed to explore the dose-response relationship between dietary F&V flavonoids and CVD, enabled the investigation of such an association with SWM. FLAVURS is an 18-week parallel three-arm randomised controlled dietary intervention trial with four time points, measured at 6-weekly intervals from baseline. Low F&V consumers at risk of CVD aged 26–70 years were randomly assigned to high flavonoid (HF), low flavonoid (LF) or control group. F&V intake increased by two daily 80 g portions every 6 weeks, with either HF or LF F&V, in addition to each participant's habitual diet, while controls maintained their habitual diet. At each visit, participants completed a cognitive test battery with SWM as the primary outcome. The HF group showed significantly higher levels of urinary flavonoids than LF or controls at 12 weeks (P<0.001) as expected, but surprisingly only higher levels than LF at 18 weeks (P<0.01). The LF group showed higher levels of plasma carotenoids than the other groups at 18 weeks (P<0.001). No group differences were found for SWM overall, however, age-group sub-analyses (26–50 and 51–70 years of age) showed differences from 0 to 18 weeks for younger adults, with LF improving significantly more than the other two groups on SWM (P<0.05). As nutritional absorption is known to decrease with age, separate stepwise regressions were performed on the two age groups irrespective of dietary group, with urinary flavonoids and plasma carotenoids as predictors. For younger adults, improved SWM performance from 0 to 18 weeks was associated with higher carotenoid levels, β=0.28, t(55)=2.10, P<0.05, accounting for 7.5% of the variance, R2=0.075, F(1,54)=4.41, P=0.040. For older adults, no between-group SWM differences were found. Findings suggest that F&V-based flavonoids and carotenoids may provide benefits for cognitive function, and that carotenoids in particular may improve cognitive performance in SWM. Given that these benefits were restricted to younger adults, future work is needed to test the reliability of this finding, as well as determine the mechanisms by which age-dependent differences in F&V responsiveness occur.

Negative priming in free recall reconsidered

Recent investigations of the phenomenon of forgetting have been driven mostly by the development of a novel theoretical framework which places great emphasis on inhibitory control (Anderson, 2003; Anderson & Spellman, 1995; Bjork, 1989). Whereas traditional, interference-based theories consider forgetting to be a by-product of storing new information, the inhibitory framework postulates a specialized mechanism, or a group of mechanisms, that serves the function of ‘deactivating’ information which is currently irrelevant. This process of inhibiting currently irrelevant information is thought to have lasting consequences, affecting memory for the irrelevant information on subsequent tests. The active and functional perspective on forgetting embedded in the inhibitory framework opens new fields for examining the role of forgetting in cognitive functioning. Differences in the ability to inhibit irrelevant information have been postulated to play important roles in a range of clinical conditions (e.g., Soriano, Jiménez, Román, & Bajo, 2009; Storm & White, 2010) and the trajectory of cognitive development (e.g., Aslan & Bäuml, 2010) as well as contributing to individual differences in many other cognitive and social domains (Redick, Heitz, & Engle, 2007).

Teachers' habitus for teaching English

In this examination of monolingual and multilingual pedagogies I draw on literature that explores the position of English globally and in the curriculum for English. I amplify the discussion with data from a project exploring how teachers responded to the arrival of Polish children in their English classrooms following Poland’s entry to the European Union in 2004. While both Poland and England are a long way from Australia, the sudden arrival of non-native speaking children from families who have the right to work and settle in the UK is interesting of itself as a development in the migration agenda affecting many nations of teachers in the 21st century. Indeed, this view of migration adds to the overview of migration in an Australian context and recent Australian immigration settlement policies often mirror this with new arrivals moving to rural areas resulting in an EAL presence in schools which may be new. Until recently it was most commonly the case that teachers in schools in inner city and other urban parts of the UK might expect to teach in multilingual classrooms, but teachers in smaller towns and in areas identified as rural were unlikely to confront either linguistic or ethnic differences in their pupils. I use the theories of Bourdieu to analyse the status of the curriculum for English expressed in research literature, and the teachers’ interview data. This supports a level of interpretation that allows us to see how teachers’ practice and the teaching of English are formed by schools’ and teachers’ histories and beliefs as much as they are by the wishes of politicians in creating educational policy. It adds to the view presented in the first article in this issue that provision for EAL/D learners sits within a monolingual assessment structure which may militate against the attainment of non-native English speakers. I present a wide-ranging discussion intentionally, in order that the many complexities of policy impact and teacher habitus on teachers’ practice are made apparent.

Realities and perceptions for English teachers of Polish children

This chapter examines the responses of English primary school teachers to Polish children arriving in the south of England since 2006. Schools in England have a changing pupil demographic which reflects changing patterns of trans-European migration since the accession of new member states to the EU in 2004 and 2007. There is evidence that this shift is one experienced not just in inner-city schools most commonly associated with minority ethnic populations, but in a wide range of schools in rural and smaller town settings in a number of counties across the country. In adjusting to new identities and new languages in their classrooms, teachers in areas not previously associated with national or ethnic differences are required to respond pedagogically and pastorally in new ways. Their beliefs are compared with the views of migration held by Polish teachers’ from one Polish town affected by migration. Interview data are analysed in order to explore differences in perception towards Polish migrant families and their children. Discussion centres on English teachers’ very positive responses to Polish children, and of how the teacher-friendly behaviour of Polish families may support the construction of stereotypes that are not necessarily a reflection of reality as experienced by the children.

Gendered struggles over land: shifting inheritance practices among the Serer in rural Senegal

Although women's land rights are often affirmed unequivocally in constitutions and international human rights conventions in many African countries, customary practices usually prevail on the ground and often deny women's land inheritance. Yet land inheritance often goes unnoticed in wider policy and development initiatives to promote women's equal access to land. This paper draws on feminist ethnographic research among the Serer ethnic group in two contrasting rural communities in Senegal. Through analysis of land governance, power relations and 'technologies of the self', this article shows how land inheritance rights are contingent on the specific effects of intersectionality in particular places. The contradictions of legal pluralism, greater adherence to Islam and decentralisation led to greater application of patrilineal inheritance practices. Gender, religion and ethnicity intersected with individuals' marital position, status, generation and socio-ecological change to constrain land inheritance rights for women, particularly daughters, and widows who had been in polygamous unions and who remarried. Although some women were aware that they were legally entitled to inherit a share of the land, they tended not to 'demand their rights'. In participatory workshops, micro-scale shifts in women's and men's positionings reveal a recognition of the gender discriminatory nature of customary and Islamic law and a desire to 'change with the times'. While the effects of 'reverse' discourses are ambiguous and potentially reinforce prevailing patriarchal power regimes, 'counter' discourses, which emerged in participatory spaces, may challenge customary practices and move closer to a rights-based approach to gender equality and women's land inheritance.

Modeling bidding competitiveness and position performance in multi-attribute construction auctions

Currently, multi-attribute auctions are becoming widespread awarding mechanisms for contracts in construction, and in these auctions, criteria other than price are taken into account for ranking bidder proposals. Therefore, being the lowest-price bidder is no longer a guarantee of being awarded, thus increasing the importance of measuring any bidder’s performance when not only the first position (lowest price) matters. Modeling position performance allows a tender manager to calculate the probability curves related to the more likely positions to be occupied by any bidder who enters a competitive auction irrespective of the actual number of future participating bidders. This paper details a practical methodology based on simple statistical calculations for modeling the performance of a single bidder or a group of bidders, constituting a useful resource for analyzing one’s own success while benchmarking potential bidding competitors.

”Potato seeking rice”: language, culture, and identity in gay personal ads in Hong Kong

This paper examines the relationship between language, culture, and identity in a corpus of gay personal ads collected from two publications in Hong Kong in the three years before the 1997 transition of sovereignty. Gay personal ads are seen äs an "island of discourse," whose marginal nature is reflected in the use of language and in turn reflects issues of marginalization in the larger social context. Using Fairclough's (1992, 1993) three- dimensional model for critical discourse analysis, an attempt is made to uncover the relationship between text structure and issues ofpower/ideology in the society that produces the texts. On the level of text, it was found that structural components, particularly the degree of grammatical elaboration, differ according to the stated race or cultural background of the authors and their targets. On the level of discourse practice, authors were found to appropriate a variety of "voices"from the larger culture arena, the use of which amplifies or limits the participation of particular classes of individuals. Finally, on the level of social practice, the ads were found to reflect and re-create both the racial stereotypes and heterosexist ideology found in the dominant culture.

Are rare species rare or just overlooked? Assessing the distribution of the freshwater bryozoan, Lophopus crystallinus

Given the widespread degradation of freshwater habitats, assessing the distributions of species that may be negatively or positively impacted should be of general interest. However, determining distributions of freshwater organisms that are small and patchily distributed and attached or sedentary is particularly problematic, as it is time consuming, inaccurate, and nearly impossible when the focal species is rare. Here we illustrate the use of indirect sampling approaches to survey the distribution of the rare freshwater bryozoan Lophopus crystallinus, a priority species in the UK Biodiversity Action Plan [Anonymous, 1999. UK Biodiversity Group Tranche 2 Action Plans. Invertebrates, Vol. 4. Environment Agency, Peterborough, pp. 437-439.1. By utilising two complementary methods for sampling bryozoan propagules (statoblasts), namely the collection of debris samples and sediment cores, we achieved an efficient and integrative sampling of habitats across spatial and temporal scales. Analysis of 154 debris samples, encompassing 62 rivers and lakes, identified at least 16 new populations while analysis of 26 sediment cores provided evidence of current or very recent (in the last 10-20 years) occurrence in a further six localities. These results represent a more than 10-fold increase in the current recorded distribution of the species in the UK. Logistic regression analysis provided evidence that L. crystallinus is generally found in lowland sites and is tolerant of eutrophication. Our study exemplifies how integrative and indirect sampling approaches can greatly aid in assessing the conservation status of rare aquatic species and reveals, in this case, that the focal species is less rare than previously appreciated. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.