Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps

An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km. The 15-year integrations were forced from reanalyses and observed sea surface temperature and sea ice (global model from sea surface only). The observational reference is based on 6400 rain gauge records (10–50 stations per grid box). Evaluation statistics encompass mean precipitation, wet-day frequency, precipitation intensity, and quantiles of the frequency distribution. For mean precipitation, the models reproduce the characteristics of the annual cycle and the spatial distribution. The domain mean bias varies between −23% and +3% in winter and between −27% and −5% in summer. Larger errors are found for other statistics. In summer, all models underestimate precipitation intensity (by 16–42%) and there is a too low frequency of heavy events. This bias reflects too dry summer mean conditions in three of the models, while it is partly compensated by too many low-intensity events in the other two models. Similar intermodel differences are found for other European subregions. Interestingly, the model errors are very similar between the two models with the same dynamical core (but different parameterizations) and they differ considerably between the two models with similar parameterizations (but different dynamics). Despite considerable biases, the models reproduce prominent mesoscale features of heavy precipitation, which is a promising result for their use in climate change downscaling over complex topography.

Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems

To bridge the gaps between traditional mesoscale modelling and microscale modelling, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in collaboration with other agencies and research groups, has developed an integrated urban modelling system coupled to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model as a community tool to address urban environmental issues. The core of this WRF/urban modelling system consists of the following: (1) three methods with different degrees of freedom to parameterize urban surface processes, ranging from a simple bulk parameterization to a sophisticated multi-layer urban canopy model with an indoor–outdoor exchange sub-model that directly interacts with the atmospheric boundary layer, (2) coupling to fine-scale computational fluid dynamic Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes and Large-Eddy simulation models for transport and dispersion (T&D) applications, (3) procedures to incorporate high-resolution urban land use, building morphology, and anthropogenic heating data using the National Urban Database and Access Portal Tool (NUDAPT), and (4) an urbanized high-resolution land data assimilation system. This paper provides an overview of this modelling system; addresses the daunting challenges of initializing the coupled WRF/urban model and of specifying the potentially vast number of parameters required to execute the WRF/urban model; explores the model sensitivity to these urban parameters; and evaluates the ability of WRF/urban to capture urban heat islands, complex boundary-layer structures aloft, and urban plume T&D for several major metropolitan regions. Recent applications of this modelling system illustrate its promising utility, as a regional climate-modelling tool, to investigate impacts of future urbanization on regional meteorological conditions and on air quality under future climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes

Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over midlatitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective.

Comparison of energy evaluation systems and a mechanistic model for milk production by dairy cattle offered fresh grass-based diets

Grass-based diets are of increasing social-economic importance in dairy cattle farming, but their low supply of glucogenic nutrients may limit the production of milk. Current evaluation systems that assess the energy supply and requirements are based on metabolisable energy (ME) or net energy (NE). These systems do not consider the characteristics of the energy delivering nutrients. In contrast, mechanistic models take into account the site of digestion, the type of nutrient absorbed and the type of nutrient required for production of milk constituents, and may therefore give a better prediction of supply and requirement of nutrients. The objective of the present study is to compare the ability of three energy evaluation systems, viz. the Dutch NE system, the agricultural and food research council (AFRC) ME system, and the feed into milk (FIM) ME system, and of a mechanistic model based on Dijkstra et al. [Simulation of digestion in cattle fed sugar cane: prediction of nutrient supply for milk production with locally available supplements. J. Agric. Sci., Cambridge 127, 247-60] and Mills et al. [A mechanistic model of whole-tract digestion and methanogenesis in the lactating dairy cow: model development, evaluation and application. J. Anim. Sci. 79, 1584-97] to predict the feed value of grass-based diets for milk production. The dataset for evaluation consists of 41 treatments of grass-based diets (at least 0.75 g ryegrass/g diet on DM basis). For each model, the predicted energy or nutrient supply, based on observed intake, was compared with predicted requirement based on observed performance. Assessment of the error of energy or nutrient supply relative to requirement is made by calculation of mean square prediction error (MSPE) and by concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). All energy evaluation systems predicted energy requirement to be lower (6-11%) than energy supply. The root MSPE (expressed as a proportion of the supply) was lowest for the mechanistic model (0.061), followed by the Dutch NE system (0.082), FIM ME system (0.097) and AFRCME system(0.118). For the energy evaluation systems, the error due to overall bias of prediction dominated the MSPE, whereas for the mechanistic model, proportionally 0.76 of MSPE was due to random variation. CCC analysis confirmed the higher accuracy and precision of the mechanistic model compared with energy evaluation systems. The error of prediction was positively related to grass protein content for the Dutch NE system, and was also positively related to grass DMI level for all models. In conclusion, current energy evaluation systems overestimate energy supply relative to energy requirement on grass-based diets for dairy cattle. The mechanistic model predicted glucogenic nutrients to limit performance of dairy cattle on grass-based diets, and proved to be more accurate and precise than the energy systems. The mechanistic model could be improved by allowing glucose maintenance and utilization requirements parameters to be variable. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimated intake of dietary phytoestrogens in Australian women and evaluation of correlates of phytoestrogen intake

The role of dietary phytoestrogens in health has been of continued interest and debate, but available data on the distribution of intake in the Australian diet is scarce. Therefore, we aimed to estimate phytoestrogen consumption in Australian women, describe the pattern of intake and identify correlates of high phytoestrogen intake. Study participants were 2078 control women (18-79 y) from two population-based case-control studies on gyneacological cancers (2002-2007). Dietary information was obtained using a 135-item semiquantitative FFQ and intakes of isoflavones, lignans, enterolignans and coumestans, including their individual components, were estimated using a database of phytoestrogen content in food developed in the UK. Median total intake (energy-adjusted) of phytoestrogens was 1.29 mg/d, of isoflavones 611 μg/d, of lignans 639 μg/d, of enterolignans 21μg/d and of coumestrol 8 μg/d. Both isoflavone and lignan intake were strongly skewed towards higher values and positively correlated with age. Women consumed on average 2 serves of soy foods/week. Compared to low phytoestrogen consumers (≤1.29 mg/d, median split), high phytoestrogen consumers (>1.29 mg/d) were slightly older, less likely to be smokers, had a higher educational and physical activity level, lower BMI, lower intake of dietary fat, and higher intake of fibre, selected micronutrient and soy food (all p<0.03). The daily intake of phytoestrogens in Australian women with predominantly Caucasian ethnicity is approximately 1 mg, similar to other Western populations, but considerably lower than among Asian women. However, those with a relatively high phytoestrogen diet seem to have healthier lifestyle and more favourable dietary profile compared to others.

Entertainment education theory and practice in HIV/AIDS communication: a South Africa / United Kingdom comparison

Within development communication, gaps remain in theory and practice: communication innovations are taking place which either do not incorporate theory or fail to challenge the assumptions of development communication and HIV/AIDS theory. This can lead to the implementation of unsuccessful interventions that lack theoretical frameworks or to uninformed practice, making it difficult to replicate. Further, research has demonstrated that Entertainment Education (EE) interventions have a measurable impact on behaviour in areas such as HIV/AIDS prevention. Given the transitions in EE practice and evidence of its impact, EE theory and practice can contribute insight into these challenges. A pilot study investigated these dilemmas within the context of the monitoring and evaluation of development communication. Framing this discussion is the concept of South-North dialogue, using comparative analysis of EE interventions to distil lessons through contrasting experiences in two diverse settings. It holds as a principle that lessons from the experience of EE in the Southern context can inform lessons for the North. Further, comparison of the case studies can generate insights for the broader development communication field. We present four case studies, informed by key informant interviews, of EE interventions in the UK and South Africa. We address how communication is defined in planning, implementation and evaluation, highlighting how it often misses the importance of 'listening'. The case studies show that HIV/AIDS communication, and development communication more broadly, has not internalised ideas of evaluation and listening in communication. Successes in the case studies can be partially attributed to responsiveness and context-specificity rather than following rigid planning templates, such as those found in some development communication literature. This indicates the importance of flexibility and responsiveness to context for both development communication and HIV/AIDS communication.

A critical evaluation of the ability of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) thermal infrared red-green-blue rendering to identify dust events: theoretical analysis

Using a combination of idealized radiative transfer simulations and a case study from the first field campaign of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) in southern Morocco, this paper provides a systematic assessment of the limitations of the widely used Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) red-green-blue (RGB) thermal infrared dust product. Both analyses indicate that the ability of the product to identify dust, via its characteristic pink coloring, is strongly dependent on the column water vapor, the lower tropospheric lapse rate, and dust altitude. In particular, when column water vapor exceeds ∼20–25 mm, dust presence, even for visible optical depths of the order 0.8, is effectively masked. Variability in dust optical properties also has a marked impact on the imagery, primarily as a result of variability in dust composition. There is a moderate sensitivity to the satellite viewing geometry, particularly in moist conditions. The underlying surface can act to confound the signal seen through variations in spectral emissivity, which are predominantly manifested in the 8.7μm SEVIRI channel. In addition, if a temperature inversion is present, typical of early morning conditions over the Sahara and Sahel, an increased dust loading can actually reduce the pink coloring of the RGB image compared to pristine conditions. Attempts to match specific SEVIRI observations to simulations using SAMUM measurements are challenging because of high uncertainties in surface skin temperature and emissivity. Recommendations concerning the use and interpretation of the SEVIRI RGB imagery are provided on the basis of these findings.