Rule Type Identification using TRCM for trend analysis in Twitter

This paper considers the use of Association Rule Mining (ARM) and our proposed Transaction based Rule Change Mining (TRCM) to identify the rule types present in tweet’s hashtags over a specific consecutive period of time and their linkage to real life occurrences. Our novel algorithm was termed TRCM-RTI in reference to Rule Type Identification. We created Time Frame Windows (TFWs) to detect evolvement statuses and calculate the lifespan of hashtags in online tweets. We link RTI to real life events by monitoring and recording rule evolvement patterns in TFWs on the Twitter network.

A comparison between ion characteristics observed by the POLAR and DMSP spacecraft in the high-latitude magnetosphere

We study here the injection and transport of ions in the convection-dominated region of the Earth’s magnetosphere. The total ion counts from the CAMMICE MICS instrument aboard the POLAR spacecraft are used to generate occurrence probability distributions of magnetospheric ion populations. MICS ion spectra are characterised by both the peak in the differential energy flux, and the average energy of ions striking the detector. The former permits a comparison with the Stubbs et al. (2001) survey of He2+ ions of solar wind origin within the magnetosphere. The latter can address the occurrences of various classifications of precipitating particle fluxes observed in the topside ionosphere by DMSP satellites (Newell and Meng, 1992). The peak energy occurrences are consistent with our earlier work, including the dawn-dusk asymmetry with enhanced occurrences on the dawn flank at low energies, switching to the dusk flank at higher energies. The differences in the ion energies observed in these two studies can be explained by drift orbit effects and acceleration processes at the magnetopause, and in the tail current sheet. Near noon at average ion energies of _1 keV, the cusp and open LLBL occur further poleward here than in the Newell and Meng survey, probably due to convectionrelated time-of-flight effects. An important new result is that the pre-noon bias previously observed in the LLBL is most likely due to the component of this population on closed field lines, formed largely by low energy ions drifting earthward from the tail. There is no evidence here of mass and momentum transfer from the solar wind to the LLBL by nonreconnection coupling. At higher energies (_2–20 keV), we observe ions mapping to the auroral oval and can distinguish between the boundary and central plasma sheets. We show that ions at these energies relate to a transition from dawnward to duskward dominated flow, this is evidence of how ion drift orbits in the tail influence the location and behaviour of the plasma populations in the magnetosphere.

Opportunities for magnetospheric research with coordinated cluster and ground-based observations

ESA’s first multi-satellite mission Cluster is unique in its concept of 4 satellites orbiting in controlled formations. This will give an unprecedented opportunity to study structure and dynamics of the magnetosphere. In this paper we discuss ways in which ground-based remote-sensing observations of the ionosphere can be used to support the multipoint in-situ satellite measurements. There are a very large number of potentially useful configurations between the satellites and any one ground-based observatory; however, the number of ideal occurrences for any one configuration is low. Many of the ground-based instruments cannot operate continuously and Cluster will take data only for a part of each orbit, depending on how much high-resolution (‘burst-mode’) data are acquired. In addition, there are a great many instrument modes and the formation, size and shape of the cluster of the four satellites to consider. These circumstances create a clear and pressing need for careful planning to ensure that the scientific return from Cluster is maximised by additional coordinated ground-based observations. For this reason, ESA established a working group to coordinate the observations on the ground with Cluster. We will give a number of examples how the combined spacecraft and ground-based observations can address outstanding questions in magnetospheric physics. An online computer tool has been prepared to allow for the planning of conjunctions and advantageous constellations between the Cluster spacecraft and individual or combined ground-based systems. During the mission a ground-based database containing index and summary data will help to identify interesting datasets and allow to select intervals for coordinated studies. We illustrate the philosophy of our approach, using a few important examples of the many possible configurations between the satellite and the ground-based instruments.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

Extracting planetary waves from geomagnetic time series using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Empirical Mode Decomposition is presented as an alternative to traditional analysis methods to decompose geomagnetic time series into spectral components. Important comments on the algorithm and its variations will be given. Using this technique, planetary wave modes of 5-, 10-, and 16-day mean periods can be extracted from magnetic field components of three different stations in Germany. In a second step, the amplitude modulation functions of these wave modes can be shown to contain significant contribution from solar cycle variation through correlation with smoothed sunspot numbers. Additionally, the data indicate connections with geomagnetic jerk occurrences, supported by a second set of data providing reconstructed near-Earth magnetic field for 150 years. Usually attributed to internal dynamo processes within the Earth's outer core, the question of who is impacting whom will be briefly discussed here.

ENSO and greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Optimized hash for network path encoding with minimized false positives

The Bloom filter is a space efficient randomized data structure for representing a set and supporting membership queries. Bloom filters intrinsically allow false positives. However, the space savings they offer outweigh the disadvantage if the false positive rates are kept sufficiently low. Inspired by the recent application of the Bloom filter in a novel multicast forwarding fabric, this paper proposes a variant of the Bloom filter, the optihash. The optihash introduces an optimization for the false positive rate at the stage of Bloom filter formation using the same amount of space at the cost of slightly more processing than the classic Bloom filter. Often Bloom filters are used in situations where a fixed amount of space is a primary constraint. We present the optihash as a good alternative to Bloom filters since the amount of space is the same and the improvements in false positives can justify the additional processing. Specifically, we show via simulations and numerical analysis that using the optihash the false positives occurrences can be reduced and controlled at a cost of small additional processing. The simulations are carried out for in-packet forwarding. In this framework, the Bloom filter is used as a compact link/route identifier and it is placed in the packet header to encode the route. At each node, the Bloom filter is queried for membership in order to make forwarding decisions. A false positive in the forwarding decision is translated into packets forwarded along an unintended outgoing link. By using the optihash, false positives can be reduced. The optimization processing is carried out in an entity termed the Topology Manger which is part of the control plane of the multicast forwarding fabric. This processing is only carried out on a per-session basis, not for every packet. The aim of this paper is to present the optihash and evaluate its false positive performances via simulations in order to measure the influence of different parameters on the false positive rate. The false positive rate for the optihash is then compared with the false positive probability of the classic Bloom filter.

Constructing risk across timescales and trajectories: Gay men's stories of sexual encounters

This paper explores the way risk is constructed in the stories gay men tell of their sexual experiences. It focuses on how tellers use such stories to portray themselves both as rational actors and as legitimate members of their social groups by reconstructing the ‘orderliness’ of sexual encounters. An analysis of a corpus of stories derived from a diary study of gay male sexual behaviour in Hong Kong using current theories of discourse analysis reveals how narrators organize their experiences along two primary vectors of engagement: a sequential vector along which the trajectory of the sexual encounter is presented as a chain of occurrences, each occurrence contingent upon previous ones and warranting subsequent ones, and a hierarchical vector along which processes perceived on longer timescales are portrayed as exerting pressure on the ways processes on shorter timescales unfold. Examining how men portray these vectors in their accounts of risk behaviour can help us better understand both the situatedness of risk behaviour and the ways it is linked to larger social practices, identity projects and community histories

Cool Roofs for improving thermal performance of EU office buildings: an investigation for different climates and building layouts

Cool materials are characterized by having a high solar reflectance r – which is able to reduce heat gains during daytime - and a high thermal emissivity ε that enables them to dissipate the heat absorbed throughout the day during night. Despite the concept of cool roofs - i.e. the application of cool materials to roof surfaces - is well known in US since 1990s, many studies focused on their performance in both residential and commercial sectors under various climatic conditions for US countries, while only a few case studies are analyzed in EU countries. The present work aims at analyzing the thermal benefits due to their application to existing office buildings located in EU countries. Indeed, due to their weight in the existing buildings stock, as well as the very low rate of new buildings construction, the retrofit of office buildings is a topic of great concern worldwide. After an in-depth characterization of the existing buildings stock in the EU, the book gives an insight into roof energy balance due to different technological solutions, showing in which cases and to what extent cool roofs are preferable. A detailed description of the physical properties of cool materials and their availability on the market provides a solid background for the parametric analysis carried out by means of detailed numerical models that aims at evaluating cool roofs performance for various climates and office buildings configurations. With the help of dynamic simulations, the thermal behavior of representative office buildings of the existing EU buildings stock is assessed in terms of thermal comfort and energy needs for air conditioning. The results, which consider several variations of building features that may affect the resulting energy balance, show how cool roofs are an effective strategy for reducing overheating occurrences and thus improving thermal comfort in any climate. On the other hand, potential heating penalties due to a reduction in the incoming heat fluxes through the roof are taken into account, as well as the aging process of cool materials. Finally, an economic analysis of the best performing models shows the boundaries for their economic convenience.