Global trajectory optimisation: can we prune the solution space when considering deep space manoeuvres?

This document contains a report on the work done under the ESA/Ariadna study 06/4101 on the global optimization of space trajectories with multiple gravity assist (GA) and deep space manoeuvres (DSM). The study was performed by a joint team of scientists from the University of Reading and the University of Glasgow.

Robustness in partial pole placement

The robustness of state feedback solutions to the problem of partial pole placement obtained by a new projection procedure is examined. The projection procedure gives a reduced-order pole assignment problem. It is shown that the sensitivities of the assigned poles in the complete closed-loop system are bounded in terms of the sensitivities of the assigned reduced-order poles, and the sensitivities of the unaltered poles are bounded in terms of the sensitivities of the corresponding open-loop poles. If the assigned poles are well-separated from the unaltered poles, these bounds are expected to be tight. The projection procedure is described in [3], and techniques for finding robust (or insensitive) solutions to the reduced-order problem are given in [1], [2].

What determines the out-of-home placement of children in the USA?

Using NCANDS data of US child maltreatment reports for 2009, logistic regression, probit analysis, discriminant analysis and an artificial neural network are used to determine the factors which explain the decision to place a child in out-of-home care. As well as developing a new model for 2009, a previous study using 2005 data is replicated. While there are many small differences, the four estimation techniques give broadly the same results, demonstrating the robustness of the results. Similarly, apart from age and sexual abuse, the 2005 and 2009 results are roughly similar. For 2009, child characteristics (particularly child emotional problems) are more important than the nature of the abuse and the situation of the household; while caregiver characteristics are the least important. All these models have low explanatory power.

Challenges in identifying factors which determine the placement of children in care? An international review

Placing a child in out-of-home care is one of the most important decisions made by professionals in the child care system, with substantial social, psychological, educational, medical and economic consequences. This paper considers the challenges and difficulties of building statistical models of this decision by reviewing the available international evidence. Despite the large number of empirical investigations over a 50 year period, a consensus on the variables associated with this decision is hard to identify. In addition, the individual models have low explanatory and predictive power and should not be relied on to make placement decisions. A number of reasons for this poor performance are offered, and some ways forwards suggested. This paper also aims to facilitate the emergence of a coherent and integrated international literature from the disconnected and fragmented empirical studies. Rather than one placement problem, there are many slightly different problems, and therefore it is expected that a number of related sub-literatures will emerge, each concentrating on a particular definition of the placement problem.

Introduction: the policy trajectory of Fair Trade

This paper provides a selective review of literature on fair trade and introduces contributions to this Policy Arena. It focuses on policy practice as a dynamic process, highlighting the changing configurations of actors, policy spaces, knowledge, practices and commodities that are shaping the policy trajectory of fair trade. It highlights how recent literature has tackled questions of mainstreaming as part of this trajectory, bringing to the fore dimensions of change associated with the market, state and civil society.

Increases in prefrontal cortex activity when regulating negative emotion predicts symptom severity trajectory over six months in depression

Context: Emotion regulation is critically disrupted in depression and use of paradigms tapping these processes may uncover essential changes in neurobiology during treatment. In addition, as neuroimaging outcome studies of depression commonly utilize solely baseline and endpoint data – which is more prone to week-to week noise in symptomatology – we sought to use all data points over the course of a six month trial. Objective: To examine changes in neurobiology resulting from successful treatment. Design: Double-blind trial examining changes in the neural circuits involved in emotion regulation resulting from one of two antidepressant treatments over a six month trial. Participants were scanned pretreatment, at 2 months and 6 months posttreatment. Setting: University functional magnetic resonance imaging facility. Participants: 21 patients with Major Depressive Disorder and without other Axis I or Axis II diagnoses and 14 healthy controls. Interventions: Venlafaxine XR (doses up to 300mg) or Fluoxetine (doses up to 80mg). Main Outcome Measure: Neural activity, as measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging during performance of an emotion regulation paradigm as well as regular assessments of symptom severity by the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression. To utilize all data points, slope trajectories were calculated for rate of change in depression severity as well as rate of change of neural engagement. Results: Those depressed individuals showing the steepest decrease in depression severity over the six months were those individuals showing the most rapid increases in BA10 and right DLPFC activity when regulating negative affect over the same time frame. This relationship was more robust than when using solely the baseline and endpoint data. Conclusions: Changes in PFC engagement when regulating negative affect correlate with changes in depression severity over six months. These results are buttressed by calculating these statistics which are more reliable and robust to week-to-week variation than difference scores.

A Lagrangian model of air-mass photochemistry and mixing using a trajectory ensemble: the Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry And Transport (CiTTyCAT) version 4.2

A Lagrangian model of photochemistry and mixing is described (CiTTyCAT, stemming from the Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry And Transport), which is suitable for transport and chemistry studies throughout the troposphere. Over the last five years, the model has been developed in parallel at several different institutions and here those developments have been incorporated into one "community" model and documented for the first time. The key photochemical developments include a new scheme for biogenic volatile organic compounds and updated emissions schemes. The key physical development is to evolve composition following an ensemble of trajectories within neighbouring air-masses, including a simple scheme for mixing between them via an evolving "background profile", both within the boundary layer and free troposphere. The model runs along trajectories pre-calculated using winds and temperature from meteorological analyses. In addition, boundary layer height and precipitation rates, output from the analysis model, are interpolated to trajectory points and used as inputs to the mixing and wet deposition schemes. The model is most suitable in regimes when the effects of small-scale turbulent mixing are slow relative to advection by the resolved winds so that coherent air-masses form with distinct composition and strong gradients between them. Such air-masses can persist for many days while stretching, folding and thinning. Lagrangian models offer a useful framework for picking apart the processes of air-mass evolution over inter-continental distances, without being hindered by the numerical diffusion inherent to global Eulerian models. The model, including different box and trajectory modes, is described and some output for each of the modes is presented for evaluation. The model is available for download from a Subversion-controlled repository by contacting the corresponding authors.

Quantification of chemical and physical processes influencing ozone during long-range transport using a trajectory ensemble

During long-range transport, many distinct processes – including photochemistry, deposition, emissions and mixing – contribute to the transformation of air mass composition. Partitioning the effects of different processes can be useful when considering the sensitivity of chemical transformation to, for example, a changing environment or anthropogenic influence. However, transformation is not observed directly, since mixing ratios are measured, and models must be used to relate changes to processes. Here, four cases from the ITCT-Lagrangian 2004 experiment are studied. In each case, aircraft intercepted a distinct air mass several times during transport over the North Atlantic, providing a unique dataset and quantifying the net changes in composition from all processes. A new framework is presented to deconstruct the change in O3 mixing ratio (Δ O3) into its component processes, which were not measured directly, taking into account the uncertainty in measurements, initial air mass variability and its time evolution. The results show that the net chemical processing (Δ O3chem) over the whole simulation is greater than net physical processing (Δ O3phys) in all cases. This is in part explained by cancellation effects associated with mixing. In contrast, each case is in a regime of either net photochemical destruction (lower tropospheric transport) or production (an upper tropospheric biomass burning case). However, physical processes influence O3 indirectly through addition or removal of precursor gases, so that changes to physical parameters in a model can have a larger effect on Δ O3chem than Δ O3phys. Despite its smaller magnitude, the physical processing distinguishes the lower tropospheric export cases, since the net photochemical O3 change is −5 ppbv per day in all three cases. Processing is quantified using a Lagrangian photochemical model with a novel method for simulating mixing through an ensemble of trajectories and a background profile that evolves with them. The model is able to simulate the magnitude and variability of the observations (of O3, CO, NOy and some hydrocarbons) and is consistent with the time-average OH following air-masses inferred from hydrocarbon measurements alone (by Arnold et al., 2007). Therefore, it is a useful new method to simulate air mass evolution and variability, and its sensitivity to process parameters.

Precision placement of fertiliser for optimising the early nutrition of vegetable crops: a review of the implications for the yield and quality of crops, and their nutrient use efficiency

The research outlined in this paper highlights the importance of the early nutrition of vegetable crops, and its long-term effects on their subsequent growth and development. Results are also presented to demonstrate how the nutrient supply during the establishment stages of young seedlings and transplants can be enhanced by targeting fertiliser to a zone close to their developing roots. Three different precision fertiliser placement techniques are compared for this purpose: starter, band or side-injected fertiliser. The use of each of these methods consistently produced the same (or greater) yields at lower application rates than those from conventional broadcast applications, increasing the apparent recovery of N, P and K, and the overall efficiency of nutrient use, while reducing the levels of residual nutrients in the soil. Starter fertilisers also advanced the maturity of some crops, and enhanced produce quality by increasing the proportions of the larger and/or more desirable marketable grades. The benefits of the different placement techniques are illustrated with selected examples from research at Warwick HRI using different vegetable crops, including lettuce, onion and carrot.

The influence of distractors on saccade­ target selection: saccade trajectory effects

It has long been known that the path (trajectory) taken by the eye to land on a target is rarely straight (Yarbus, 1967). Furthermore, the magnitude and direction of this natural tendency for curvature can be modulated by the presence of a competing distractor stimu­ lus presented along with the saccade target. The distractor­related modulation of saccade trajectories provides a subtle measure of the underlying competitive processes involved in saccade target selection. Here we review some of our own studies into the effects distract­ ors have on saccade trajectories, which can be regarded as a way of probing the competit­ ive balance between target and distractor salience.

The experience of friendship, victimization and bullying in children with an autism spectrum disorder: associations with child characteristics and school placement

Children with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may be vulnerable to social isolation and bullying. We measured the friendship, fighting/bullying and victimization experiences of 10–12-year-old children with an ASD (N = 100) using parent, teacher and child self-report. Parent and teacher reports were compared to an IQ-matched group of children with special educational needs (SEN) without ASD (N = 80) and UK population data. Parents and teachers reported a lower prevalence of friendships compared to population norms and to children with SEN without an ASD. Parents but not teachers reported higher levels of victimization than the SEN group. Half of the children with an ASD reported having friendships that involved mutuality. By teacher report children with an ASD who were less socially impaired in mainstream school experienced higher levels of victimization than more socially impaired children; whereas for more socially impaired children victimization did not vary by school placement. Strategies are required to support and improve the social interaction skills of children with an ASD, to enable them to develop and maintain meaningful peer friendships and avoid victimization.

Dynamic game soundtrack generation in response to a continously varying emotional trajectory

Dynamic soundtracking presents various practical and aesthetic challenges to composers working with games. This paper presents an implementation of a system addressing some of these challenges with an affectively-driven music generation algorithm based on a second order Markov-model. The system can respond in real-time to emotional trajectories derived from 2-dimensions of affect on the circumplex model (arousal and valence), which are mapped to five musical parameters. A transition matrix is employed to vary the generated output in continuous response to the affective state intended by the gameplay.

Root distributions of Australian herbaceous perennial legumes in response to phosphorus placement

Many Australian plant species have specific root adaptations for growth in phosphorus-impoverished soils, and are often sensitive to high external P concentrations. The growth responses of native Australian legumes in agricultural soils with elevated P availability in the surface horizons are unknown. The aim of these experiments was to test the hypothesis that increased P concentration in surface soil would reduce root proliferation at depth in native legumes. The effect of P placement on root distribution was assessed for two Australian legumes, Kennedia prorepens F. Muell. and Lotus australis Andrews, and the exotic Medicago sativa L. Three treatments were established in a low-P loam soil: amendment of 0.15 g mono-calcium phosphate in either (i) the top 50 mm (120 µg P g–1) or (ii) the top 500 mm (12 µg P g–1) of soil, and an unamended control. In the unamended soil M. sativa was shallow rooted, with 58% of the root length of in the top 50 mm. K. prorepens and L. australis had a more even distribution down the pot length, with only 4 and 22% of their roots in the 0–50 mm pot section, respectively. When exposed to amendment of P in the top 50 mm, root length in the top 50 mm increased 4-fold for K. prorepens and 10-fold for M. sativa, although the pattern of root distribution did not change for M. sativa. L. australis was relatively unresponsive to P additions and had an even distribution of roots down the pot. Shoot P concentrations differed according to species but not treatment (K. prorepens 2.1 mg g–1, L. australis 2.4 mg g–1, M. sativa 3.2 mg g–1). Total shoot P content was higher for K. prorepens than for the other species in all treatments. In a second experiment, mono-ester phosphatases were analysed from 1-mm slices of soil collected directly adjacent to the rhizosphere. All species exuded phosphatases into the rhizosphere, but addition of P to soil reduced phosphatase activity only for K. prorepens. Overall, high P concentration in the surface soil altered root distribution, but did not reduce root proliferation at depth. Furthermore, the Australian herbaceous perennial legumes had root distributions that enhanced P acquisition from low-P soils.

Multicamera trajectory analysis for semantic behaviour characterisation

In this paper we propose an innovative approach for behaviour recognition, from a multicamera environment, based on translating video activity into semantics. First, we fuse tracks from individual cameras through clustering employing soft computing techniques. Then, we introduce a higher-level module able to translate fused tracks into semantic information. With our proposed approach, we address the challenge set in PETS 2014 on recognising behaviours of interest around a parked vehicle, namely the abnormal behaviour of someone walking around the vehicle.