Geostatistical radar-raingauge combination with nonparametric correlograms: methodological considerations and application in Switzerland

Modelling spatial covariance is an essential part of all geostatistical methods. Traditionally, parametric semivariogram models are fit from available data. More recently, it has been suggested to use nonparametric correlograms obtained from spatially complete data fields. Here, both estimation techniques are compared. Nonparametric correlograms are shown to have a substantial negative bias. Nonetheless, when combined with the sample variance of the spatial field under consideration, they yield an estimate of the semivariogram that is unbiased for small lag distances. This justifies the use of this estimation technique in geostatistical applications. Various formulations of geostatistical combination (Kriging) methods are used here for the construction of hourly precipitation grids for Switzerland based on data from a sparse realtime network of raingauges and from a spatially complete radar composite. Two variants of Ordinary Kriging (OK) are used to interpolate the sparse gauge observations. In both OK variants, the radar data are only used to determine the semivariogram model. One variant relies on a traditional parametric semivariogram estimate, whereas the other variant uses the nonparametric correlogram. The variants are tested for three cases and the impact of the semivariogram model on the Kriging prediction is illustrated. For the three test cases, the method using nonparametric correlograms performs equally well or better than the traditional method, and at the same time offers great practical advantages. Furthermore, two variants of Kriging with external drift (KED) are tested, both of which use the radar data to estimate nonparametric correlograms, and as the external drift variable. The first KED variant has been used previously for geostatistical radar-raingauge merging in Catalonia (Spain). The second variant is newly proposed here and is an extension of the first. Both variants are evaluated for the three test cases as well as an extended evaluation period. It is found that both methods yield merged fields of better quality than the original radar field or fields obtained by OK of gauge data. The newly suggested KED formulation is shown to be beneficial, in particular in mountainous regions where the quality of the Swiss radar composite is comparatively low. An analysis of the Kriging variances shows that none of the methods tested here provides a satisfactory uncertainty estimate. A suitable variable transformation is expected to improve this.

Incense and insensibility: Austin on the 'non-seriousness' of poetry

What is at stake when J. L. Austin calls poetry ‘non-serious’, and sidelines it in his speech act theory? (I). Standard explanations polarize sharply along party lines: poets (e.g. Geoffrey Hill) and critics (e.g. Christopher Ricks) are incensed, while philosophers (e.g. P. F. Strawson; John Searle) deny cause (II). Neither line is consistent with Austin's remarks, whose allusions to Plato, Aristotle and Frege are insufficiently noted (III). What Austin thinks is at stake is confusion, which he corrects apparently to the advantage of poets (IV). But what is actually at stake is the possibility of commitment and poetic integrity. We should reject what Austin offers (V).

Style, experimentation and Jingju (Beijing Opera) as a decentered multiplicity

Jingju (Beijing Opera) is widely considered to be a fundamentally non-naturalistic practice that became known in the West after it caught the attention of western practitioners in 1935 following Mei Lanfang’s performance in Moscow. Given the implication that its importance is largely historical, some non-specialists have implied that Jingju has little relevance to contemporary modes of thinking, particularly the multiplicities of experience as outlined by philosophers such as Deleuze and Guattari. This article seeks to demonstrate the multiplicity of Jingju for a wider readership through both a historical analysis and a deconstruction of the form. It will show how, at the same time that Mei Lanfang was providing a ‘non-realistic’ model for western practitioners eager to displace the dominance of naturalism, realistic settings were becoming an integral part of Jingju performances in Shanghai. The article also engages with the various acting pai/styles that weave Jingju into a complex, multiple form. The article demonstrates how Deleuzian models actually facilitate a greater understanding of Jingju.

Not another look at the Turing Test!

Practical application of the Turing Test throws up all sorts of questions regarding the nature of intelligence in both machines and humans. For example - Can machines tell original jokes? What would this mean to a machine if it did so? It has been found that acting as an interrogator even top philosophers can be fooled into thinking a machine is human and/or a human is a machine - why is this? Is it that the machine is performing well or is it that the philosopher is performing badly? All these questions, and more, will be considered. Just what does the Turing test tell us about machines and humans? Actual transcripts will be considered with startling results.

Are normative properties descriptive properties?

Some philosophers think that normative properties are identical to descriptive properties. In this paper, I argue that this entails that it is possible to say which descriptive properties normative properties are identical to. I argue that Frank Jackson’s argument to show that this is possible fails, and that the objections to this argument show that it is impossible to say which descriptive properties normative properties are identical to. I conclude that normative properties are not identical to descriptive properties. I then show that if we combine this conclusion with the conclusion of a different argument that Jackson has given to show that there are no irreducibly normative properties, it follows that there are no normative properties at all.

Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill

This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist philosophers interpret and motivate their research through a stronger collective identity. The overarching aim is to set the background for a collaborative project organising, systematising, and ultimately forging an identity for, European philosophy of science by creating research structures and developing research networks across Europe to promote its development.

‘The Historikerstreit: Uniqueness and Comparability of the Holocaust'

A critical analysis of the public debate among German historians, philosophers and other intellectuals in the mid-1980s about the uniqueness or comparability of the Holocaust in relation to other instances of genocide.

Morality and the good life

Being moral sometimes handicaps decent people in their pursuit of worthwhile goals. This is especially likely to happen when those with power in society have badly mistaken ideas about what morality requires. A good person might not last long in a bad society.