Accounting for the economic risk, caused by variation in disease severity, in fungicide dose decisions: exemplified for Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat

A method is presented to calculate economic optimum fungicide doses accounting for the risk-aversion of growers responding to variability in disease severity between crops. Simple dose-response and disease-yield loss functions are used to estimate net disease-related costs (fungicide cost, plus disease-induced yield loss) as a function of dose and untreated severity. With fairly general assumptions about the shapes of the probability distribution of disease severity and the other functions involved, we show that a choice of fungicide dose which minimises net costs on average across seasons results in occasional large net costs caused by inadequate control in high disease seasons. This may be unacceptable to a grower with limited capital. A risk-averse grower can choose to reduce the size and frequency of such losses by applying a higher dose as insurance. For example, a grower may decide to accept ‘high loss’ years one year in ten or one year in twenty (i.e. specifying a proportion of years in which disease severity and net costs will be above a specified level). Our analysis shows that taking into account disease severity variation and risk-aversion will usually increase the dose applied by an economically rational grower. The analysis is illustrated with data on septoria tritici leaf blotch of wheat caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola. Observations from untreated field plots at sites across England over three years were used to estimate the probability distribution of disease severities at mid-grain filling. In the absence of a fully reliable disease forecasting scheme, reducing the frequency of ‘high loss’ years requires substantially higher doses to be applied to all crops. Disease resistant cultivars reduce both the optimal dose at all levels of risk and the disease-related costs at all doses.

Physical activity attenuates the body mass index-increasing influence of genetic variation in the FTO gene 1-3.

BACKGROUND: Intronic variation in the FTO (fat mass and obesity-associated) gene has been unequivocally associated with increased body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)) and the risk of obesity in populations of different ethnicity. OBJECTIVE: We examined whether this robust genetic predisposition to obesity can be attenuated by being more physically active. DESIGN: The FTO variant rs1121980 was genotyped in 20,374 participants (39-79 y of age) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk Study, an ethnically homogeneous population-based cohort. Physical activity (PA) was assessed with a validated self-reported questionnaire. The interaction between rs1121980 and PA on BMI and waist circumference (WC) was examined by including the interaction term in mixed-effect models. RESULTS: We confirmed that the risk (T) allele of rs1121980 was significantly associated with BMI (0.31-unit increase per allele; P < 0.001) and WC (0.77-cm increase per allele; P < 0.001). The PA level attenuated the effect of rs1121980 on BMI and WC; ie, whereas in active individuals the risk allele increased BMI by 0.25 per allele, the increase in BMI was significantly (P for interaction = 0.004) more pronounced (76%) in inactive individuals (0.44 per risk allele). We observed similar effects for WC (P for interaction = 0.02): the risk allele increased WC by 1.04 cm per allele in inactive individuals but by only 0.64 cm in active individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that PA attenuates the effect of the FTO rs1121980 genotype on BMI and WC. This observation has important public health implications because we showed that a genetic susceptibility to obesity induced by FTO variation can be overcome, at least in part, by adopting a physically active lifestyle.

Variation in genes related to hepatic lipid metabolism and changes in waist circumference and body weight.

We analysed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tagging the genetic variability of six candidate genes (ATF6, FABP1, LPIN2, LPIN3, MLXIPL and MTTP) involved in the regulation of hepatic lipid metabolism, an important regulatory site of energy balance for associations with body mass index (BMI) and changes in weight and waist circumference. We also investigated effect modification by sex and dietary intake. Data of 6,287 individuals participating in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition were included in the analyses. Data on weight and waist circumference were followed up for 6.9 ± 2.5 years. Association of 69 tagSNPs with baseline BMI and annual changes in weight as well as waist circumference were investigated using linear regression analysis. Interactions with sex, GI and intake of carbohydrates, fat as well as saturated, monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids were examined by including multiplicative SNP-covariate terms into the regression model. Neither baseline BMI nor annual weight or waist circumference changes were significantly associated with variation in the selected genes in the entire study population after correction for multiple testing. One SNP (rs1164) in LPIN2 appeared to be significantly interacting with sex (p = 0.0003) and was associated with greater annual weight gain in men (56.8 ± 23.7 g/year per allele, p = 0.02) than in women (-25.5 ± 19.8 g/year per allele, p = 0.2). With respect to gene-nutrient interaction, we could not detect any significant interactions when accounting for multiple testing. Therefore, out of our six candidate genes, LPIN2 may be considered as a candidate for further studies.

The variation in transparency of amniotic membrane used in ocular surface regeneration

Background/aims: Scant consideration has been given to the variation in structure of the human amniotic membrane (AM) at source or to the significance such differences might have on its clinical transparency. Therefore, we applied our experience of quantifying corneal transparency to AM. Methods: Following elective caesarean, AM from areas of the fetal sac distal and proximal (ie, adjacent) to the placenta was compared with freeze-dried AM. The transmission of light through the AM samples was quantified spectrophotometrically; also, tissue thickness was measured by light microscopy and refractive index by refractometry. Results: Freeze-dried and freeze-thawed AM samples distal and proximal to the placenta differed significantly in thickness, percentage transmission of visible light and refractive index. The thinnest tissue (freeze-dried AM) had the highest transmission spectra. The thickest tissue (freeze-thawed AM proximal to the placenta) had the highest refractive index. Using the direct summation of fields method to predict transparency from an equivalent thickness of corneal tissue, AM was found to be up to 85% as transparent as human cornea. Conclusion: When preparing AM for ocular surface reconstruction within the visual field, consideration should be given to its original location from within the fetal sac and its method of preservation, as either can influence corneal transparency.

Variation in dynamic elastic shear modulus of sandstone upon fluid saturation and substitution

Experimental acoustic measurements on sandstone rocks at both sonic and ultrasonic frequencies show that fluid saturation can cause a noticeable change in both the dynamic bulk and shear elastic moduli of sandstones. We observed that the change in dynamic shear modulus upon fluid saturation is highly dependent on the type of saturant, its viscosity, rock microstructure, and applied pressures. Frequency dispersion has some influence on dynamic elastic moduli too, but its effect is limited to the ultrasonic frequency ranges and above. We propose that viscous coupling, reduction in free surface energy, and, to a limited extent, frequency dispersion due to both local and global flow are the main mechanisms responsible for the change in dynamic shear elastic modulus upon fluid saturation and substitution, and we quantify influences.

Phylogeographic analysis of the chloroplast DNA variation in wild common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in the Americas

The wild common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) is widely but discontinuously distributed from northern Mexico to northern Argentina on both sides of the Isthmus of Panama. Little is known on how the species has reached its current disjunct distribution. In this research, chloroplast DNA polymorphisms in seven non-coding regions were used to study the history of migration of wild P. vulgaris between Mesoamerica and South America. A penalized likelihood analysis was applied to previously published Leguminosae ITS data to estimate divergence times between P. vulgaris and its sister taxa from Mesoamerica, and divergence times of populations within P. vulgaris. Fourteen chloroplast haplotypes were identified by PCR-RFLP and their geographical associations were studied by means of a Nested Clade Analysis and Mantel Tests. The results suggest that the haplotypes are not randomly distributed but occupy discrete parts of the geographic range of the species. The current distribution of haplotypes may be explained by isolation by distance and by at least two migration events between Mesoamerica and South America: one from Mesoamerica to South America and another one from northern South America to Mesoamerica. Age estimates place the divergence of P. vulgaris from its sister taxa from Mesoamerica at or before 1.3 Ma, and divergence of populations from Ecuador-northern Peru at or before 0.6 Ma. As these ages are taken as minimum divergence times, the influence of past events, such as the closure of the Isthmus of Panama and the final uplift of the Andes, on the migration history and population structure of this species cannot be disregarded.

Inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in a reintroduced population of Mauritius Kestrel

Many populations have recovered from severe bottlenecks either naturally or through intensive conservation management. In the past, however, few conservation programs have monitored the genetic health of recovering populations. We conducted a conservation genetic assessment of a small, reintroduced population of Mauritius Kestrel (Falco punctatus) to determine whether genetic deterioration has occurred since its reintroduction. We used pedigree analysis that partially accounted for individuals of unknown origin to document that (1) inbreeding occurred frequently (2.6% increase per generation; N-el = 18.9), (2) 25% of breeding pairs were composed of either closely or moderately related individuals, (3) genetic diversity has been lost from the population (1,6% loss per generation; N-ev = 32.1) less rapidly than the corresponding increase in inbreeding, and (4) ignoring the contribution of unknown individuals to a pedigree will bias the metrics derived from that pedigree, ultimately obscuring the prevailing genetic dynamics. The rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in the subpopulation of Mauritius Kestrel we examined were extreme and among the highest yet documented in a wild vertebrate population. Thus, genetic deterioration may affect this population's long-term viability. Remedial conservation strategies are needed to reduce the impact of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in this species, We suggest that schemes to monitor genetic variation after reintroduction should be an integral component of endangered species recovery programs

Some factors affecting variation in milk yield in crossbred dairy cows on smallholder farms in north-east Tanzania

A 2-year longitudinal survey was carried out to investigate factors affecting milk yield in crossbred cows on smallholder farms in and around an urban centre. Sixty farms were visited at approximately 2-week intervals and details of milk yield, body condition score (BCS) and heart girth measurements were collected. Fifteen farms were within the town (U), 23 farms were approximately 5 km from town (SU), and 22 farms approximately 10 km from town (PU). Sources of variation in milk yield were investigated using a general linear model by a stepwise forward selection and backward elimination approach to judge important independent variables. Factors considered for the first step of formulation of the model included location (PU, SU and U), calving season, BCS at calving, at 3 months postpartum and at 6 months postpartum, calving year, herd size category, source of labour (hired and family labour), calf rearing method (bucket and partial suckling) and parity number of the cow. Daily milk yield (including milk sucked by calves) was determined by calving year (p < 0.0001), calf rearing method (p = 0.044) and BCS at calving (p < 0.0001). Only BCS at calving contributed to variation in volume of milk sucked by the calf, lactation length and lactation milk yield. BCS at 3 months after calving was improved on farms where labour was hired (p = 0.041) and BCS change from calving to 6 months was more than twice as likely to be negative on U than SU and PU farms. It was concluded that milk production was predominantly associated with BCS at calving, lactation milk yield increasing quadratically from score 1 to 3. BCS at calving may provide a simple, single indicator of the nutritional status of a cow population.

Successful long-term ultra dry storage of seed of 15 species of Brassicaceae in a genebank: variation in ability to germinate over 40 years and dormancy

Seed of 15 species of Brassicaceae were stored hermetically in a genebank (at -5 degrees C to -10 degrees C with c. 3% moisture content) for 40 years. Samples were withdrawn at intervals for germination tests. Many accessions showed an increase in ability to germinate over this period. due to loss in dormancy. Nevertheless, some dormancy remained after 40 years' storage and was broken by pre-applied gibberellic acid. The poorest seed survival occurred in Hormatophylla spinosa. Even in this accession the ability to germinate declined by only 7% between 1966 and 2006. Comparison of seeds from 1966 stored for 40 years with those collected anew in 2006 from the original sampling sites, where possible, showed few differences, other than a tendency (7 of 9 accessions) for the latter to show greater dormancy. These results for hermetic storage at sub-zero temperatures and low moisture contents confirm that long-term seed storage can provide a successful technology for ex situ plant biodiversity conservation.

Effects of a sex-ratio distorting endosymbiont on mtDNA variation in a global insect pest

Background: Patterns of mtDNA variation within a species reflect long-term population structure, but may also be influenced by maternally inherited endosymbionts, such as Wolbachia. These bacteria often alter host reproductive biology and can drive particular mtDNA haplotypes through populations. We investigated the impacts of Wolbachia infection and geography on mtDNA variation in the diamondback moth, a major global pest whose geographic distribution reflects both natural processes and transport via human agricultural activities. Results: The mtDNA phylogeny of 95 individuals sampled from 10 countries on four continents revealed two major clades. One contained only Wolbachia-infected individuals from Malaysia and Kenya, while the other contained only uninfected individuals, from all countries including Malaysia and Kenya. Within the uninfected group was a further clade containing all individuals from Australasia and displaying very limited sequence variation. In contrast, a biparental nuclear gene phylogeny did not have infected and uninfected clades, supporting the notion that maternally-inherited Wolbachia are responsible for the mtDNA pattern. Only about 5% (15/306) of our global sample of individuals was infected with the plutWBI isolate and even within infected local populations, many insects were uninfected. Comparisons of infected and uninfected isofemale lines revealed that plutWBI is associated with sex ratio distortion. Uninfected lines have a 1:1 sex ratio, while infected ones show a 2:1 female bias. Conclusion: The main correlate of mtDNA variation in P. xylostella is presence or absence of the plutWBI infection. This is associated with substantial sex ratio distortion and the underlying mechanisms deserve further study. In contrast, geographic origin is a poor predictor of moth mtDNA sequences, reflecting human activity in moving the insects around the globe. The exception is a clade of Australasian individuals, which may reflect a bottleneck during their recent introduction to this region.

Variation in the ovarian reserve Is linked to alterations in intrafollicular estradiol production and ovarian biomarkers of follicular differentiation and oocyte quality in cattle

The mechanisms whereby the high variation in numbers of morphologically healthy oocytes and follicles in ovaries (ovarian reserve) may have an impact onovarian function, oocyte quality, and fertility are poorly understood. The objective was to determine whether previously validated biomarkers for follicular differentiation and function, as well as oocyte quality differed between cattle with low versus a high antral follicle count (AFC). Ovaries were removed (n = 5 per group) near the beginning of the nonovulatory follicular wave, before follicles could be identified via ultrasonography as being dominant, from heifers with high versus a low AFC. The F1, F2, and F3 follicles were dissected and diameters determined. Follicular fluid and thecal, granulosal, and cumulus cells and the oocyte were isolated and subjected to biomarker analyses. Although the size and numerous biomarkers of differentiation, such as mRNAs for the gonadotropin receptors, were similar, intrafollicular concentrations of estradiol and the abundance of mRNAs for CYP19A1 in granulosal cells and ESR1, ESR2, and CTSB in cumulus cells were greater, whereas mRNAs for AMH in granulosal cells and TBC1D1 in thecal cells were lower for animals with low versus a high AFC during follicle waves. Hence, variation in the ovarian reserve may have an impact on follicular function and oocyte quality via alterations in intrafollicular estradiol production and expression of key genes involved in follicle-stimulating hormone action (AMH) and estradiol (CYP19A1) production by granulosal cells, function and survival of thecal cells (TBC1D1), responsiveness of cumulus cells to estradiol (ESR1, ESR2), and cumulus cell determinants of oocyte quality (CTSB).

Clonal variation in acetylcholinesterase biomarkers and life history traits following OP exposure in Daphnia magna

Two clones of Daphnia magna (Standard and Ruth) were exposed for 7 days to sub-lethal concentrations of acephate (5.0 and 10.0 mg/L). Survivorship, individual growth, reproduction and the population growth rate (lambda) were evaluated over three weeks. Acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity was measured on days 2, 7 and 21. Acephate exposure inhibited AChE activity but had no direct effect on life history (LH) traits. There was also no effect of clone on AChE activity, LH and lambda. However, a significant interaction between clone and acephate concentration was found on both fecundity and AChE inhibition at 48 h was associated with a decrease in lambda the Standard clone and an increase in lambda in clone Ruth. Therefore, our findings show that genotypic variation will influence the link between AChE activity and toxic effects at higher levels of biological organisation in D. magna. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variation in the ability of human influenza A viruses to induce and inhibit the IFN-beta pathway

We investigated the ability of a selection of human influenza A viruses, including recent clinical isolates, to induce IFN-beta production in cultured cell lines. In contrast to the well-characterized laboratory strain A/PR/8/34, several, but not all, recent isolates of H3N2 viruses resulted in moderate IFN-beta stimulation. Through the generation of recombinant viruses, we were able to show that this is not due to a loss of the ability of the NS1 genes to suppress IFN-beta induction; indeed, the NS1 genes behaved similarly with respect to their abilities to block dsRNA signaling. Interestingly, replication of A/Sydney/5/97 virus was less Susceptible to pre-treatment with IFN-alpha than the other viruses. In contrast to the universal effect on dsRNA signaling, we noted differences in the effect of NS1 proteins on expression of interferon stimulated genes and also genes induced by a distinct pathway. The majority of NS1 proteins blocked expression From both IFN-dependent and TNF-dependent promoters by an apparent post-transcriptional mechanism. The NS1 gene of A/PR/8/34 NS1 did not confer these blocks. We noted striking differences in the Cellular localization of different influenza A virus NS1 proteins during infection, which might explain differences in biological activity. (C) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intraspecific heritable variation in life-history traits can alter the outcome of interspecific competition among insect herbivores

Competition is one of the most important biotic factors determining the structure of ecological communities. In this study, we show that there is variation in competitive ability between two clones of the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum, both of which out-compete a clone of the vetch aphid, Megoura viciae, in the laboratory. We tested whether this variation in competitive ability would alter the outcome of interspecific competition in the field. White one pea aphid clone followed the pattern set in the laboratory, out-competing the Megoura viciae clone, another showed the reverse effect with Megoura viciae dominating. These differences appear to be the result of variation in early population growth rate between the pea aphid clones, rather than predation, although predation did lead to the eventual extinction of colonies. We also questioned whether intra- and interspecific differences in predator escape behaviour could affect the outcome of competition in the field. All three clones responded similarly to the presence of foraging hoverfly larvae (Episyrphus balteatus), but the Megoura viciae clone dropped from the plant significantly less often in response to the presence of a foraging two-spot ladybird (Adalia bipunctata). This work provides evidence that intraspecific variation in competitive ability can alter the outcome of interspecific competitive interactions in nature and suggests that species-specific behavioural. traits may have the potential to modify the outcome of these interactions. (c) 2005 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.