A covariate adjustment for zero-truncated approaches to estimating the size of hidden and elusive populations

In this paper we consider the estimation of population size from onesource capture–recapture data, that is, a list in which individuals can potentially be found repeatedly and where the question is how many individuals are missed by the list. As a typical example, we provide data from a drug user study in Bangkok from 2001 where the list consists of drug users who repeatedly contact treatment institutions. Drug users with 1, 2, 3, . . . contacts occur, but drug users with zero contacts are not present, requiring the size of this group to be estimated. Statistically, these data can be considered as stemming from a zero-truncated count distribution.We revisit an estimator for the population size suggested by Zelterman that is known to be robust under potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a locally truncated Poisson likelihood which is equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This result allows the extension of the Zelterman estimator by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates. We also review an estimator proposed by Chao and explain why we are not able to obtain similar results for this estimator. The Zelterman estimator is applied in two case studies, the first a drug user study from Bangkok, the second an illegal immigrant study in the Netherlands. Our results suggest the new estimator should be used, in particular, if substantial unobserved heterogeneity is present.

Childhood emotional abuse and neglect as predictors of psychological and physical symptoms in women presenting to a primary care practice

Objective: There were two aims to this study: first to examine whether emotional abuse and neglect are significant predictors of psychological and somatic symptoms, and lifetime trauma exposure in women presenting to a primary care practice, and second to examine the strength of these relationships after controlling for the effects of other types of childhood abuse and trauma. Method: Two-hundred and five women completed the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (Bernstein et al., 1994), Trauma History Questionnaire (Green, 1996), the Symptom Checklist-revised (Derogatis, 1997), and the Revised Civilian Mississippi Scale for posttraumatic stress disorder (Norris & Perilla, 1996) when presenting to their primary care physician for a visit. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted to examine unique contributions of emotional abuse and neglect variables on symptom measures while controlling for childhood sexual and physical abuse and lifetime trauma exposure. Results: A history of emotional abuse and neglect was associated with increased anxiety, depression, posttraumatic stress and physical symptoms, as well as lifetime trauma exposure. Physical and sexual abuse and lifetime trauma were also significant predictors of physical and psychological symptoms. Hierarchical multiple regressions demonstrated that emotional abuse and neglect predicted symptomatology in these women even when controlling for other types of abuse and lifetime trauma exposure. Conclusions: Long-standing behavioral consequences may arise as a result of childhood emotional abuse and neglect, specifically, poorer emotional and physical functioning, and vulnerability to further trauma exposure. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of psychological treatment on attentional bias in eating disorders

Objective: The aims of these studies were (a) to investigate the relationship between attentional bias and eating disorders and (b) examine the impact of psychological treatment on attentional bias. Method: The first study compared performance on a pictorial dot probe of 82 female patients with clinical eating disorders and 44 healthy female controls. The second study compared the performance of 31 patients with eating disorder on the same task before and after receiving 20 weeks of standardized cognitive behavior therapy. Twenty-four patients with eating disorder served as wait-list controls. Results: With the exception of neutral shape stimuli, attentional biases for eating, shape, and weight stimuli were greater in the patient sample than the healthy controls. The second study found that attentional biases significantly reduced after active treatment only. Conclusion: Attentional biases may be an expression of the eating disorder. The question of whether such biases warrant specific intervention requires further investigation. (C) 2008 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression 2. Impact on the mother-child relationship and child outcome

Background: Postnatal depression is associated with adverse child cognitive and socio-emotional outcome. It is not known whether psychological treatment affects the quality of the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Aims: To evaluate the effect of three psychological treatments on the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193) were assigned randomly to routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy The women and their children, were assessed at 43, [8 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Indications of a positive benefit were limited. All three treatments had a significant benefit on maternal reports of early difficulties in relationships with the infants, counselling gave better infant emotional and behaviour ratings at 18 months and more sensitive early mother-infant interactions. The treatments had no significant impact on maternal management of early infant behaviour problems, security of infant-mother attachment. Infant cognitive development or any child outcome at 5 years. Conclusions: Early intervention was of short-term benefit to the mother-child relationship and infant behaviour problems. More-prolonged intervention may be needed. Health visitors could deliver this.

The psychological, neurochemical and functional neuroanatomical mediators of the effects of positive and negative mood on executive functions

In this review we evaluate the cognitive and neural effects of positive and negative mood on executive function. Mild manipulations of negative mood appear to have little effect on cognitive control processes, whereas positive mood impairs aspects of updating, planning and switching. These cognitive effects may be linked to neurochemistry: with positive mood effects mediated by dopamine while negative mood effects may be mediated by serotonin levels. Current evidence on the effects of mood on regional brain activity during executive functions, indicates that the prefrontal cortex is a recurrent site of integration between mood and cognition. We conclude that there is a disparity between the importance of this topic and awareness of how mood affects, executive functions in the brain. Most behavioural and neuroimaging studies of executive function in normal samples do not explore the potential role of variations in mood, yet the evidence we outline indicates that even mild fluctuations in mood can have a significant influence on neural activation and cognition. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual variation in psychological and psychomotor symptoms following smoking cessation: the implications for treatment

Some commonly experienced signs and symptoms occur during abstinence from tobacco, but specific signs and symptoms and their intensity vary greatly from individual to individual. The aim of this study was to re-examine psychological and psychomotor symptoms in smokers in the general population, and to explore the individual variation in these. Quitting smokers (n = 123) reported their experiences pre- and post-cessation, on a questionnaire developed for the study. Analysis of variance and frequency analysis showed significant decreases between pre- and post-cessation on positive experiences (F = 9.81, p < 0.0001) but no significant change on negative experiences, suggesting a loss of pleasure rather than increased negative affect upon quitting. The variance of the pre- to post-cessation difference score suggested wide variation in the reporting of withdrawal symptoms. These results lead us to consider the implications for treatment, using cognitive therapies and moderating the significant emphasis that is at present put on withdrawal.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression - 1. Impact on maternal mood!

Background: Psychological interventions for postnatal depression can be beneficial in the short term but their longer-term impact is unknown, Aims To evaluate the long-term effect on maternal mood of three psychological treatments in relation to routine primary care. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193)were assigned randomly to one of four conditions: routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy. They were assessed immediately after the treatment phase (at 4.5 months) and at 18 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Compared with the control, ail three treatments had a significant impact at 4.5 months on maternal mood (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS). Only psychodynamic therapy produced a rate of reduction in depression (Structured Clinical interview for DSM III-R) significantly superior to that of the control. The benefit of treatment was no longer apparent by 9 months postpartum, treatment did not reduce subsequent episodes of post-partum depression. Conclusions: Psychological intervention for post-partum depression improves maternal mood (EPDS) in the short term. However, this benefit is not superior to spontaneous remission in the long term.

Psychological response to later life widowhood: coping and the effects of gender

The study examined the effects of psychological response and gender on coping with late life widowhood. Forty-six men and 46 women (55 years +) were interviewed about their experiences of widowhood. Participants were classified as to whether they were coping well or less well. Data were analyzed using grounded theory, content. analysis, and three-way loglinear analyses. Loglinear analyses revealed three-way interactions for Gender, Coping, and Response. Men who report feeling upset or selfish are more likely to be coping, as are women who report being comfortable alone. There were two-way interactions between Coping and Response and Gender and Response. Participants who talk to their dead spouse are more Rely to be coping than those who do not. Those who "keep themselves to themselves" are more likely not to be coping than those who do not. Gender differences, were found in psychological response. Differences were also found between those who coped and those who coped less well. The study has enabled the synthesis of quantitative and qualitative data to present a more complete view of late life widowhood than has previously been possible. In addition, the article draws attention to the importance of distinguishing between the effects of bereavement and those of widowhood.

Perceptions of psychological content in the GP consultation - the role of practice, personal and prescribing attributes

Objective: The aim of the present study was to determine the relationship between the characteristics of general practices and the perceptions of the psychological content of consultations by GPs in those practices. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted of all GPs (22 GPs based in nine practices) serving a discrete inner city community of 41 000 residents. GPs were asked to complete a log-diary over a period of five working days, rating their perception of the psychological content of each consultation on a 4-point Likert scale, ranging from 0 (no psychological content) to 3 (entirely psychological in content). The influence of GP and practice characteristics on psychological content scores was examined. Results: Data were available for every surgery-based consultation (n = 2206) conducted by all 22 participating GPs over the study period. The mean psychological content score was 0.58 (SD 0.33). Sixty-four percent of consultations were recorded as being without any psychological content; 6% were entirely psychological in content. Higher psychological content scores were significantly associated with younger GPs, training practices (n = 3), group practices (n = 4), the presence of on-site mental health workers (n = 5), higher antidepressant prescribing volumes and the achievement of vaccine and smear targets. Training status had the greatest predictive power, explaining 51% of the variation in psychological content. Neither practice consultation rates, GP list size, annual psychiatric referral rates nor volumes of benzodiazepine prescribing were related to psychological content scores. Conclusion: Increased awareness by GPs of the psychological dimension within a consultation may be a feature of the educational environment of training practices.

Immersive co-operative psychological virtual environments (ICPVE)

Virtual Reality (VR) has been used in a variety of forms to assist in the treatment of a wide range of psychological illness. VR can also fulfil the need that psychologists have for safe environments in which to conduct experiments. Currently the main barrier against using this technology is the complexity in developing applications. This paper presents two different co-operative psychological applications which have been developed using a single framework. These applications require different levels of co-operation between the users and clients, ranging from full psychologist involvement to their minimal intervention. This paper will also discuss our approach to developing these different environments and our experiences to date in utilising these environments.

Williams Syndrome: the extent of agreement between parent and self report of psychological difficulties

Background and Objectives: People with Williams syndrome (WS) have been reported by their carers to have problems with attention, anxiety and social relationships. People with WS have been shown to report their anxieties. This study extends our knowledge of how people with WS see themselves in terms of behaviour and social relationships. Methods: A survey using self and parent report forms of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Results: Both parents and individuals with WS (N = 31) reported difficulties in emotional disorder and hyperactivity symptoms and strengths in prosocial behaviours such as altruism and empathy. They disagreed about peer problems. Conclusions: People with WS understand some but not all of their difficulties. In particular they fail to recognize their social difficulties which may lead them to be vulnerable to exploitation.

The climate response to CO2 of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment

Coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models have a tendency to drift away from a realistic climatology. The modelled climate response to an increase of CO2 concentration may be incorrect if the simulation of the current climate has significant errors, so in many models, including ours, the drift is counteracted by applying prescribed fluxes of heat and fresh water at the ocean‐atmosphere interface in addition to the calculated surface exchanges. Since the additional fluxes do not have a physical basis, the use of this technique of “flux adjustment” itself introduces some uncertainty in the simulated response to increased CO2. We find that the global‐average temperature response of our model to CO2 increasing at 1% per year is about 30% less without flux adjustment than with flux adjustment. The geographical patterns of the response are similar, indicating that flux adjustment is not causing any gross distortion. The reduced size of the response is due to more effective vertical transport of heat into the ocean, and a somewhat smaller climate sensitivity. Although the response in both cases lies within the generally accepted range for the climate sensitivity, systematic uncertainties of this size are clearly undesirable, and the best strategy for future development is to improve the climate model in order to reduce the need for flux adjustment.

Asymmetric adjustment in the City of London office market

Earlier estimates of the City of London office market are extended by considering a longer time series of data, covering two cycles, and by explicitly modeling of asymmetric space market responses to employment and supply shocks. A long run structural model linking real rental levels, office-based employment and the supply of office space is estimated and then rental adjustment processes are modeled using an error correction model framework. Rental adjustment is seen to be asymmetric, depending both on the direction of the supply and demand shocks and on the state of the space market at the time of the shock. Vacancy adjustment does not display asymmetries. There is also a supply adjustment equation. Two three-equation systems, one with symmetric rental adjustment and the other with asymmetric adjustment, are subjected to positive and negative shocks to employment. These illustrate differences in the two systems.