Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

COMPUTER assisted technologies to enhance CONCURRENce in building DESIGN

Modern organisms are adapted to a wide variety of habitats and lifestyles. The processes of evolution have led to complex, interdependent, well-designed mechanisms of todays world and this research challenge is to transpose these innovative solutions to resolve problems in the context of architectural design practice, e.g., to relate design by nature with design by human. In a design by human environment, design synthesis can be performed with the use of rapid prototyping techniques that will enable to transform almost instantaneously any 2D design representation into a physical three-dimensional model, through a rapid prototyping printer machine. Rapid prototyping processes add layers of material one on top of another until a complete model is built and an analogy can be established with design by nature where the natural lay down of earth layers shapes the earth surface, a natural process occurring repeatedly over long periods of time. Concurrence in design will particularly benefit from rapid prototyping techniques, as the prime purpose of physical prototyping is to promptly assist iterative design, enabling design participants to work with a three-dimensional hardcopy and use it for the validation of their design-ideas. Concurrent design is a systematic approach aiming to facilitate the simultaneous involvment and commitment of all participants in the building design process, enabling both an effective reduction of time and costs at the design phase and a quality improvement of the design product. This paper presents the results of an exploratory survey investigating both how computer-aided design systems help designers to fully define the shape of their design-ideas and the extent of the application of rapid prototyping technologies coupled with Internet facilities by design practice. The findings suggest that design practitioners recognize that these technologies can greatly enhance concurrence in design, though acknowledging a lack of knowledge in relation to the issue of rapid prototyping.

Testing white line strength in the dairy cow

The tensile strength of 576 pieces of white line horn collected over 6 mo from 14 dairy cows restricted to parity 1 or 2 was tested. None of the cows had ever been lame. Seven cows were randomly assigned to receive 20 mg/d biotin supplementation, and 7 were not supplemented. Hoof horn samples were taken from zones 2 and 3 (the more proximal and distal sites of the abaxial white line) of the medial and lateral claws of both hind feet on d 1 and on 5 further occasions over 6 mo. The samples were analyzed at 100% water saturation. Hoof slivers were notched to ensure that tensile strength was measured specifically across the white line region. The tensile stress at failure was measured in MPa and was adjusted for the cross-sectional area of the notch site. Data were analyzed in a multilevel model, which accounted for the repeated measures within cows. All other variables were entered as fixed effects. In the final model, there was considerable variation in strength over time. Tensile strength was significantly higher in medial compared with lateral claws, and zone 2 was significantly stronger than zone 3. Where the white line was visibly damaged the tensile strength was low. Biotin supplementation did not affect the tensile strength of the white line. Results of this study indicate that damage to the white line impairs its tensile strength and that in horn with no visible abnormality the white line is weaker in the lateral hind claw than the medial and in zone 3 compared with zone 2. The biomechanical strength was lowest at zone 3 of the lateral hind claw, which is the most common site of white line disease lameness in cattle.

Verification of design calculations of a wind catcher/tower natural ventilation system with performance testing in real building

A wind catcher/tower natural ventilation system was installed in a seminar room in the building of the School of Construction Management and Engineering, the University of Reading in the UK . Performance was analysed by means of ventilation tracer gas measurements, indoor climate measurements (temperature, humidity, CO2) and occupant surveys. In addition, the potential of simple design tools was evaluated by comparing observed ventilation results with those predicted by an explicit ventilation model and the AIDA implicit ventilation model. To support this analysis, external climate parameters (wind speed and direction, solar radiation, external temperature and humidity) were also monitored. The results showed the chosen ventilation design provided a substantially greater ventilation rate than an equivalent area of openable window. Also air quality parameters stayed within accepted norms while occupants expressed general satisfaction with the system and with comfort conditions. Night cooling was maximised by using the system in combination with openable windows. Comparisons of calculations with ventilation rate measurements showed that while AIDA gave reasonably correlated results with the monitored performance results, the widely used industry explicit model was found to over estimate the monitored ventilation rate.

Enterolactone restricts the proliferation of the LNCaP human prostate cancer cell line in vitro

Ecological data suggest a long-term diet high in plant material rich in biologically active compounds, such as the lignans, can significantly influence the development of prostate cancer over the lifetime of an individual. The capacity of a pure mammalian lignan, enterolactone (ENL), to influence the proliferation of the LNCaP human prostate cancer cell line was investigated as a function of cell density, metabolic activity, expression and secretion of prostate specific antigen (PSA), cell cycle profile, and the expression of genes involved in development and progression of prostate cancer. Treatment with a subcytotoxic concentration of ENL (60 mu M for 72 h) was found to reduce: cell density (57.5%, SD 7.23, p < 0.001), metabolic activity (55%, SD 0.03, p < 0.001), secretion of PSA (48.50% SD 4.74, p = 0.05) and induce apoptosis (8.33-fold SD 0.04, p = 0.001) compared to untreated cells. Cotreatment with 10 mu M etoposide was found to increase apoptosis by 50.17% (SD 0.02, p < 0.001). Additionally, several key genes (e.g. MCMs, survivin and CDKs) were beneficially regulated by ENL treatment (p < 0.05). The data suggest that the antiproliferative activity of ENL is a consequence of altered expression of cell cycle associated genes and provides novel molecular evidence for the antiproliferative properties of a pure lignan in prostate cancer.

Differences in perceived risks and benefits of herbal, over-the-counter conventional, and prescribed conventional, medicines, and the implications of this for the safe and effective use of herbal products

Objectives: To investigate people's views about the efficacy and specific risks of herbal, over-the-counter (OTC) conventional, and prescribed conventional medicines, and their likelihood of taking a second (herbal or OTC conventional) product in addition to a prescribed medicine. Methods: Experiment 1 (1 factor within-participant design); Experiment 2 (1 factor between-participant design). Convenience samples of general population were given a hypothetical scenario and required to make a number of judgements. Results: People believed herbal remedies to be less effective, but less risky than OTC and prescribed conventional medicines. Herbal medicines were not seen as being safer simply because of their easier availability. Participants indicated that they would be more likely to take a herbal medicine than a conventional OTC medicine in addition to a prescribed medicine, and less likely to consult their doctor in advance. Conclusion: People believe that herbal medicines are natural and relatively safe and can be used with less caution. People need to be given clear information about the risks and benefits of herbal medicines if they are to use such products safety and effectively. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changing patterns of cognitive-motor interference (CMI) over time during recovery from stroke

Objective: To explore the extent and nature of change in cognitive-motor interference (CMI) among rehabilitating stroke patients who showed dual-task gait decrement at initial assessment. Design: Experimental, with in-subjects, repeated measures design. Setting: Rehabilitation centre for adults with acquired, nonprogressive brain injury. Subjects: Ten patients with unilateral stroke, available for reassessment 1-9 months following their participation in a study of CMI after brain injury. Measures: Median stride duration; mean word generation. Methods: Two x one-minute walking trials, two x one-minute word generation trials, two x one-minute trials of simultaneous walking and word generation; 10-metre walking time; Barthel ADL Scale score. Results: Seven out of ten patients showed reduction over time in dual-task gait decrement. Three out of ten showed reduction in cognitive decrement. Only one showed concomitant reduction in gait and word generation decrement. Conclusion: Extent of CMI during relearning to walk after a stroke reduced over time in the majority of patients. Effects were more evident in improved stride duration than improved cognitive performance. Measures of multiple task performance should be included in assessment for functional recovery.

Over the counter medicines and the need for immediate action: a further evaluation of European Commission recommended wordings for communicating risk

A study examined people's interpretation of European Commission (EC) recommended verbal descriptors for risk of medicine side effects, and actions to take if they do occur. Members of the general public were presented with a fictitious (but realistic) scenario about suffering from a stiff neck, visiting the local pharmacy and purchasing an over the counter (OTC) medicine (Ibruprofen). The medicine came with an information leaflet which included information about the medicine's side effects, their risk of occurrence, and recommended actions to take if adverse effects are experienced. Probability of occurrence was presented numerically (6%) or verbally, using the recommended EC descriptor (common). Results showed that, in line with findings of our earlier work with prescribed medicines, participants significantly overestimated side effect risk. Furthermore, the differences in interpretation were reflected in their judgements of satisfaction, side effect severity, risk to health, and intention to take the medicine. Finally, we observed no significant difference between people's interpretation of the recommended action descriptors ('immediately' and 'as soon as possible'). (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A design for business intelligence service in demand driven supply chain management

This paper discusses the problems inherent within traditional supply chain management's forecast and inventory management processes arising when tackling demand driven supply chain. A demand driven supply chain management architecture developed by Orchestr8 Ltd., U.K. is described to demonstrate its advantages over traditional supply chain management. Within this architecture, a metrics reporting system is designed by adopting business intelligence technology that supports users for decision making and planning supply activities over supply chain health.

Model selection approaches for non-linear system identification: a review

The identification of non-linear systems using only observed finite datasets has become a mature research area over the last two decades. A class of linear-in-the-parameter models with universal approximation capabilities have been intensively studied and widely used due to the availability of many linear-learning algorithms and their inherent convergence conditions. This article presents a systematic overview of basic research on model selection approaches for linear-in-the-parameter models. One of the fundamental problems in non-linear system identification is to find the minimal model with the best model generalisation performance from observational data only. The important concepts in achieving good model generalisation used in various non-linear system-identification algorithms are first reviewed, including Bayesian parameter regularisation and models selective criteria based on the cross validation and experimental design. A significant advance in machine learning has been the development of the support vector machine as a means for identifying kernel models based on the structural risk minimisation principle. The developments on the convex optimisation-based model construction algorithms including the support vector regression algorithms are outlined. Input selection algorithms and on-line system identification algorithms are also included in this review. Finally, some industrial applications of non-linear models are discussed.

A supramolecular polymer based on tweezer-type pi-pi stacking interactions: molecular design for healability and enhanced toughness

An elastomeric, healable, supramolecular polymer blend comprising a chain-folding polyimide and a telechelic polyurethane with pyrenyl end groups is compatibilized by aromatic pi-pi stacking between the pi-electron-deficient diimide groups and the pi-electron-rich pyrenyl units. This interpolymer interaction is the key to forming a tough, healable, elastomeric material. Variable-temperature FTIR analysis of the bulk material also conclusively demonstrates the presence of hydrogen bonding, which complements the pi-pi stacking interactions. Variable-temperature SAXS analysis shows that the healable polymeric blend has a nanophase-separated morphology and that the X-ray contrast between the two types of domain increases with increasing temperature, a feature that is repeatable over several heating and cooling cycles. A fractured sample of this material reproducibly regains more than 95% of the tensile modulus, 91% of the elongation to break, and 77% of the modulus of toughness of the pristine material.

The north Atlantic marine oundary layer experiment (NAMBLEX): Overview of the campaign held at Mace Head, Ireland, in summer 2002

The North Atlantic Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (NAMBLEX), involving over 50 scientists from 12 institutions, took place at Mace Head, Ireland (53.32° N, 9.90° W), between 23 July and 4 September 2002. A wide range of state-of-the-art instrumentation enabled detailed measurements of the boundary layer structure and atmospheric composition in the gas and aerosol phase to be made, providing one of the most comprehensive in situ studies of the marine boundary layer to date. This overview paper describes the aims of the NAMBLEX project in the context of previous field campaigns in the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL), the overall layout of the site, a summary of the instrumentation deployed, the temporal coverage of the measurement data, and the numerical models used to interpret the field data. Measurements of some trace species were made for the first time during the campaign, which was characterised by predominantly clean air of marine origin, but more polluted air with higher levels of NOx originating from continental regions was also experienced. This paper provides a summary of the meteorological measurements and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) structure measurements, presents time series of some of the longer-lived trace species (O3, CO, H2, DMS, CH4, NMHC, NOx, NOy, PAN) and summarises measurements of other species that are described in more detail in other papers within this special issue, namely oxygenated VOCs, HCHO, peroxides, organo-halogenated species, a range of shorter lived halogen species (I2, OIO, IO, BrO), NO3 radicals, photolysis frequencies, the free radicals OH, HO2 and (HO2+Σ RO2), as well as a summary of the aerosol measurements. NAMBLEX was supported by measurements made in the vicinity of Mace Head using the NERC Dornier-228 aircraft. Using ECMWF wind-fields, calculations were made of the air-mass trajectories arriving at Mace Head during NAMBLEX, and were analysed together with both meteorological and trace-gas measurements. In this paper a chemical climatology for the duration of the campaign is presented to interpret the distribution of air-mass origins and emission sources, and to provide a convenient framework of air-mass classification that is used by other papers in this issue for the interpretation of observed variability in levels of trace gases and aerosols.

The use of trajectory cluster analysis to interpret trace gas measurements at Mace Head, Ireland

A first step in interpreting the wide variation in trace gas concentrations measured over time at a given site is to classify the data according to the prevailing weather conditions. In order to classify measurements made during two intensive field campaigns at Mace Head, on the west coast of Ireland, an objective method of assigning data to different weather types has been developed. Air-mass back trajectories calculated using winds from ECMWF analyses, arriving at the site in 1995–1997, were allocated to clusters based on a statistical analysis of the latitude, longitude and pressure of the trajectory at 12 h intervals over 5 days. The robustness of the analysis was assessed by using an ensemble of back trajectories calculated for four points around Mace Head. Separate analyses were made for each of the 3 years, and for four 3-month periods. The use of these clusters in classifying ground-based ozone measurements at Mace Head is described, including the need to exclude data which have been influenced by local perturbations to the regional flow pattern, for example, by sea breezes. Even with a limited data set, based on 2 months of intensive field measurements in 1996 and 1997, there are statistically significant differences in ozone concentrations in air from the different clusters. The limitations of this type of analysis for classification and interpretation of ground-based chemistry measurements are discussed.

Model-based life cycle cost and assessment tool for sustainable building design decision

There is a growing concern in reducing greenhouse gas emissions all over the world. The U.K. has set 34% target reduction of emission before 2020 and 80% before 2050 compared to 1990 recently in Post Copenhagen Report on Climate Change. In practise, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) tools have been introduced to construction industry in order to achieve this such as. However, there is clear a disconnection between costs and environmental impacts over the life cycle of a built asset when using these two tools. Besides, the changes in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) lead to a change in the way information is represented, in particular, information is being fed more easily and distributed more quickly to different stakeholders by the use of tool such as the Building Information Modelling (BIM), with little consideration on incorporating LCC and LCA and their maximised usage within the BIM environment. The aim of this paper is to propose the development of a model-based LCC and LCA tool in order to provide sustainable building design decisions for clients, architects and quantity surveyors, by then an optimal investment decision can be made by studying the trade-off between costs and environmental impacts. An application framework is also proposed finally as the future work that shows how the proposed model can be incorporated into the BIM environment in practise.

H∞ robust control design for unsupported paraplegic standing: experimental evaluation

This paper is concerned with the design of robust feedback H~-control systems for the control of the upright posture of paraplegic persons standing. While the subject stands in a special apparatus, stabilising torque at the ankle joint is generated by electrical stimulation of the paralyzed calf muscles. Since the muscles acting as actuators in this setup show a significant degree of nonlinearity, a robust H~-control design is used. The design approach is implemented in experiments with a paraplegic subject. The results demonstrate good performance and closed loop stability over the whole range of operation.