Bayesian decision procedures for dose-escalation based on evidence of undesirable events and therapeutic benefit.

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures are developed for dose-escalation studies based on bivariate observations of undesirable events and signs of therapeutic benefit. The methods generalize earlier approaches taking into account only the undesirable outcomes. Logistic regression models are used to model the two responses, which are both assumed to take a binary form. A prior distribution for the unknown model parameters is suggested and an optional safety constraint can be included. Gain functions to be maximized are formulated in terms of accurate estimation of the limits of a therapeutic window or optimal treatment of the next cohort of subjects, although the approach could be applied to achieve any of a wide variety of objectives. The designs introduced are illustrated through simulation and retrospective implementation to a completed dose-escalation study. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Avoidance responses of an aphidophagous ladybird, Adalia bipunctata, to aphid-tending ants

1. Insect predators often aggregrate to patches of high prey density and use prey chemicals as cues for oviposition. If prey have mutualistic guardians such as ants, however, then these patches may be less suitable for predators. 2. Ants often tend aphids and defend them against predators such as ladybirds. Here, we show that ants can reduce ladybird performance by destroying eggs and physically attacking larvae and adults. 3. Unless ladybirds are able to defend against ant attacks they are likely to have adaptations to avoid ants. We show that Adalia bipunctata ladybirds not only move away from patches with Lasius niger ants, but also avoid laying eggs in these patches. Furthermore, ladybirds not only respond to ant presence, but also detect ant semiochemicals and alter oviposition strategy accordingly. 4. Ant semiochemicals may signal the extent of ant territories allowing aphid predators to effectively navigate a mosaic landscape of sub-optimal patches in search of less well-defended prey. Such avoidance probably benefits both ants and ladybirds, and the semiochemicals could be regarded as a means of cooperative communication between enemies. 5. Overall, ladybirds respond to a wide range of positive and negative oviposition cues that may trade-off with each other and internal motivation to determine the overall oviposition strategy.

Bayesian decision procedures for binary and continuous bivariate dose-escalation studies

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures are developed for dose-escalation studies based on binary measures of undesirable events and continuous measures of therapeutic benefit. The methods generalize earlier approaches where undesirable events and therapeutic benefit are both binary. A logistic regression model is used to model the binary responses, while a linear regression model is used to model the continuous responses. Prior distributions for the unknown model parameters are suggested. A gain function is discussed and an optional safety constraint is included. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A comparison of two time-domain analysis procedures in the determination of VO2 kinetics by pseudorandom binary sequence exercise testing

The purpose of this study was to apply and compare two time-domain analysis procedures in the determination of oxygen uptake (VO2) kinetics in response to a pseudorandom binary sequence (PRBS) exercise test. PRBS exercise tests have typically been analysed in the frequency domain. However, the complex interpretation of frequency responses may have limited the application of this procedure in both sporting and clinical contexts, where a single time measurement would facilitate subject comparison. The relative potential of both a mean response time (MRT) and a peak cross-correlation time (PCCT) was investigated. This study was divided into two parts: a test-retest reliability study (part A), in which 10 healthy male subjects completed two identical PRBS exercise tests, and a comparison of the VO2 kinetics of 12 elite endurance runners (ER) and 12 elite sprinters (SR; part B). In part A, 95% limits of agreement were calculated for comparison between MRT and PCCT. The results of part A showed no significant difference between test and retest as assessed by MRT [mean (SD) 42.2 (4.2) s and 43.8 (6.9) s] or by PCCT [21.8 (3.7) s and 22.7 (4.5) s]. Measurement error (%) was lower for MRT in comparison with PCCT (16% and 25%, respectively). In part B of the study, the VO2 kinetics of ER were significantly faster than those of SR, as assessed by MRT [33.4 (3.4) s and 39.9 (7.1) s, respectively; P<0.01] and PCCT [20.9 (3.8) s and 24.8 (4.5) s; P < 0.05]. It is possible that either analysis procedure could provide a single test measurement Of VO2 kinetics; however, the greater reliability of the MRT data suggests that this method has more potential for development in the assessment Of VO2 kinetics by PRBS exercise testing.

Alkaline phosphatase activity in pasteurized milk: a quantitative comparison of Fluorophos and colourimetric procedures

Fluorophos and colourimetric procedures for alkaline phosphatase (ALP) testing were compared using milk with raw milk additions, purified bovine ALP additions and heat treatments. Repeatability was between 0.9% and 10.1% for Fluorophos, 3.5% and 46.1% for the Aschaffenburg and Mullen (A&M) procedure and 4.4% and 8.8% for the Scharer rapid test. Linearity (R-2) using raw milk addition was 0.96 between Fluorophos and the Scharer procedure. Between the Fluorophos and the A&M procedures, R-2 values were 0.98, 0.99 and 0.98 for raw milk additions, bovine ALP additions and heat treatments respectively. Fluorophos showed greater sensitivity and was both faster and simpler to perform.

Distinguishing novelty and familiarity effects in infant preference procedures

This paper considers possible problems researchers might face when interpreting the results of studies that employ variants of the preference procedure. Infants show a tendency to shift their preference from familiar to novel stimuli with increasing exposure to the familiar stimulus, a behaviour that is exploited by the habituation paradigm. This change in attentional preference with exposure leads us to suggest that researchers interested in infants' pre-experimental or spontaneous preferences should beware of the potentially confounding effects of exposing infants to familiarization trials prior to employing the preference procedure. The notion that infant attentional preference is dynamic also calls into question the use of the direction of post-familiarization preference per se when interpreting the knowledge or strategies available to infants. We look into the results of a cross-modal word learning study to show how the interpretation of results may be difficult when infants exhibit a significant preference in an unexpected direction. As a possible solution to this problem we propose that significant preferences in both directions should be sought at multiple intervals over time. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.