Detecting an impact of predation on bird populations depends on the methods used to assess the predators

Summary 1. In recent decades there have been population declines of many UK bird species, which have become the focus of intense research and debate. Recently, as the populations of potential predators have increased there is concern that increased rates of predation may be contributing to the declines. In this review, we assess the methodologies behind the current published science on the impacts of predators on avian prey in the UK. 2. We identified suitable studies, classified these according to study design (experimental ⁄observational) and assessed the quantity and quality of the data upon which any variation in predation rates was inferred. We then explored whether the underlying study methodology had implications for study outcome. 3. We reviewed 32 published studies and found that typically observational studies comprehensively monitored significantly fewer predator species than experimental studies. Data for a difference in predator abundance from targeted (i.e. bespoke) census techniques were available for less than half of the 32 predator species studied. 4. The probability of a study detecting an impact on prey abundance was strongly, positively related to the quality and quantity of data upon which the gradient in predation rates was inferred. 5. The findings suggest that if a study is based on good quality abundance data for a range of predator species then it is more likely to detect an effect than if it relies on opportunistic data for a smaller number of predators. 6. We recommend that the findings from studies which use opportunistic data, for a limited number of predator species, should be treated with caution and that future studies employ bespoke census techniques to monitor predator abundance for an appropriate suite of predators.

Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.

The short- and long-term fitness consequences of natal dispersal in a wild bird population

Dispersal is a key process in population and evolutionary ecology. Individual decisions are affected by fitness consequences of dispersal, but these are difficult to measure in wild populations. A long-term dataset on a geographically closed bird population, the Mauritius kestrel, offers a rare opportunity to explore fitness consequences. Females dispersed further when the availability of local breeding sites was limited, whereas male dispersal correlated with phenotypic traits. Female but not male fitness was lower when they dispersed longer distances compared to settling close to home. These results suggest a cost of dispersal in females. We found evidence of both short- and long-term fitness consequences of natal dispersal in females, including reduced fecundity in early life and more rapid aging in later life. Taken together, our results indicate that dispersal in early life might shape life history strategies in wild populations.

Anthropogenic natal environmental effects on life histories in a wild bird population

Recent work suggests that the environment experienced in early life can alter life histories in wild populations [1, 2, 3, 4 and 5], but our understanding of the processes involved remains limited [6 and 7]. Since anthropogenic environmental change is currently having a major impact on wild populations [8], this raises the possibility that life histories may be influenced by human activities that alter environmental conditions in early life. Whether this is the case and the processes involved remain unexplored in wild populations. Using 23 years of longitudinal data on the Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus), a tropical forest specialist, we found that females born in territories affected by anthropogenic habitat change shifted investment in reproduction to earlier in life at the expense of late life performance. They also had lower survival rates as young adults. This shift in life history strategy appears to be adaptive, because fitness was comparable to that of other females experiencing less anthropogenic modification in their natal environment. Our results suggest that human activities can leave a legacy on wild birds through natal environmental effects. Whether these legacies have a detrimental effect on populations will depend on life history responses and the extent to which these reduce individual fitness.

Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

1.Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. 2.Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land-use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus; a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall), and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. 3.Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs, and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. 4.Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. 5.Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will become worse over time. Our results suggest that forest restoration designed to reduce the detrimental impacts of agriculture on breeding may also help reduce the detrimental effects of breeding late due to wetter springs. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering the interactive effects of environmental change when managing wild populations.

Wild bird feeding in a large UK urban area: characteristics and estimates of energy input and individuals supported

Wild bird feeding is popular in domestic gardens across the world. Nevertheless, there is surprisingly little empirical information on certain aspects of the activity and no year-round quantitative records of the amounts and nature of the different foods provided in individual gardens. We sought to characterise garden bird feeding in a large UK urban area in two ways. First, we conducted face-to-face questionnaires with a representative cross-section of residents. Just over half fed birds, the majority doing so year round and at least weekly. Second, a two-year study recorded all foodstuffs put out by households on every provisioning occasion. A median of 628 kcal/garden/day was given. Provisioning level was not significantly influenced by weather or season. Comparisons between the data sets revealed significantly less frequent feeding amongst these ‘keen’ feeders than the face-to-face questionnaire respondents, suggesting that one-off questionnaires may overestimate provisioning frequency. Assuming 100% uptake, the median provisioning level equates to sufficient supplementary resources across the UK to support 196 million individuals of a hypothetical average garden-feeding bird species (based on 10 common UK garden-feeding birds’ energy requirements). Taking the lowest provisioning level recorded (101 kcal/day) as a conservative measure, 31 million of these average individuals could theoretically be supported.

Impact of game bird release on the Adonis blue butterfly Polyommatus bellargus (Lepidoptera Lycaenidae) on chalk grassland

Polyommatus bellargus is a priority species of butterfly in the UK as a result of its scarcity and the rate of population decline over the last few years. In the UK, the species is associated with chalk grassland on hot, south-facing slopes suitable for the growth of the food plant Hippocrepis comosa. Shooting game birds is a popular pastime in the UK. Over 40 million game birds, principally Phasianus colchicus and Alectoris rufa, are bred and released into the countryside each year for shooting interests. There is a concern that the release of such a large number of non-native birds has an adverse effect on native wildlife. A study was carried out over a period of 3 years out to examine whether there was any evidence that A. rufa released into chalk grassland habitat negatively affects populations of P. bellargus. A comparison was made between sites where large numbers of A. rufa were released versus sites where no, or few, birds were released. The study involved the construction of exclosures in these sites to allow an examination of the number of butterflies emerging from H. comosa when the birds were excluded versus when the birds had free range across the area. Where birds were present the on-site vegetation was shorter than where they were absent indicating that the birds were definitely influencing habitat structure. However, the evidence that A. rufa was negatively influencing the number of adult butterflies emerging was not strong, although there was a largely non-significant tendency for higher butterfly emergence when the birds were excluded or absent.

Can site and landscape-scale environmental attributes buffer bird populations against weather events?

Projected impacts of climate change on the populations and distributions of species pose a challenge for conservationists. In response, a number of adaptation strategies to enable species to persist in a changing climate have been proposed. Management to maximise the quality of habitat at existing sites may reduce the magnitude or frequency of climate-driven population declines. In addition large-scale management of landscapes could potentially improve the resilience of populations by facilitating inter-population movements. A reduction in the obstacles to species’ range expansion, may also allow species to track changing conditions better through shifts to new locations, either regionally or locally. However, despite a strong theoretical base, there is limited empirical evidence to support these management interventions. This makes it difficult for conservationists to decide on the most appropriate strategy for different circumstances. Here extensive data from long-term monitoring of woodland birds at individual sites are used to examine the two-way interactions between habitat and both weather and population count in the previous year. This tests the extent to which site-scale and landscape-scale habitat attributes may buffer populations against variation in winter weather (a key driver of woodland bird population size) and facilitate subsequent population growth. Our results provide some support for the prediction that landscape-scale attributes (patch isolation and area of woodland habitat) may influence the ability of some woodland bird species to withstand weather-mediated population declines. These effects were most apparent among generalist woodland species. There was also evidence that several, primarily specialist, woodland species are more likely to increase following population decline where there is more woodland at both site and landscape scales. These results provide empirical support for the concept that landscape-scale conservation efforts may make the populations of some woodland bird species more resilient to climate change. However in isolation, management is unlikely to provide a universal benefit to all species.

The heterogeneity of wooded-agricultural landscape mosaics influences woodland bird community assemblages

Context Landscape heterogeneity (the composition and configuration of different landcover types) plays a key role in shaping woodland bird assemblages in wooded-agricultural mosaics. Understanding how species respond to landscape factors could contribute to preventing further decline of woodland bird populations. Objective To investigate how woodland birds with different species traits respond to landscape heterogeneity, and to identify whether specific landcover types are important for maintaining diverse populations in wooded-agricultural environments. Methods Birds were sampled from woodlands in 58 2 x 2 km tetrads across southern Britain. Landscape heterogeneity was quantified for each tetrad. Bird assemblage response was determined using redundancy analysis combined with variation partitioning and response trait analyses. Results For woodland bird assemblages, the independent explanatory importance of landscape composition and landscape configuration variables were closely interrelated. When considered simultaneously during variation partitioning, the community response was better represented by compositional variables. Different species responded to different landscape features and this could be explained by traits relating to woodland association, foraging strata and nest location. Ubiquitous, generalist species, many of which were hole-nesters or ground foragers, correlated positively with urban landcover while specialists of broadleaved woodland avoided landscapes containing urban areas. Species typical of coniferous woodland correlated with large conifer plantations. Conclusions At the 2 x 2 km scale, there was evidence that the availability of resources provided by proximate landcover types was highly important for shaping woodland bird assemblages. Further research to disentangle the effects of composition and configuration at different spatial scales is advocated.