Decision-making in a phase II clinical trial: a new approach combining Bayesian and frequentist concepts

The aim of a phase H clinical trial is to decide whether or not to develop an experimental therapy further through phase III clinical evaluation. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to the phase H trial, although we assume that subsequent phase III clinical trials will hat,e standard frequentist analyses. The decision whether to conduct the phase III trial is based on the posterior predictive probability of a significant result being obtained. This fusion of Bayesian and frequentist techniques accepts the current paradigm for expressing objective evidence of therapeutic value, while optimizing the form of the phase II investigation that leads to it. By using prior information, we can assess whether a phase II study is needed at all, and how much or what sort of evidence is required. The proposed approach is illustrated by the design of a phase II clinical trial of a multi-drug resistance modulator used in combination with standard chemotherapy in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reaction of silylene with oxygen

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with O-2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second order rate constants at 10 Torr were fitted to the Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-11.08 +/- 0.04) + (1.57 +/- 0.32 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln10 The decrease in rate constant values with increasing temperature, although systematic is very small. The rate constants showed slight increases in value with pressure at each temperature, but this was scarcely beyond experimental uncertainty. From estimates of Lennard-Jones collision rates, this reaction is occurring at ca. 1 in 20 collisions, almost independent of pressure and temperature. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level backed further by multi-configurational (MC) SCF calculations, augmented by second order perturbation theory (MRMP2), support a mechanism in which the initial adduct, H2SiOO, formed in the triplet state (T), undergoes intersystem crossing to the more stable singlet state (S) prior to further low energy isomerisation processes leading, via a sequence of steps, ultimately to dissociation products of which the lowest energy pair are H2O + SiO. The decomposition of the intermediate cyclo-siladioxirane, via O-O bond fission, plays an important role in the overall process. The bottleneck for the overall process appears to be the T -> S process in H2SiOO. This process has a small spin orbit coupling matrix element, consistent with an estimate of its rate constant of 1 x 10(9) s(-1) obtained with the aid of RRKM theory. This interpretation preserves the idea that, as in its reactions in general, SiH2 initially reacts at the encounter rate with O-2. The low values for the secondary reaction barriers on the potential energy surface account for the lack of an observed pressure dependence. Some comparisons are drawn with the reactions of CH2 + O-2 and SiCl2 + O-2.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of reactions of silylene with chlorine-containing species. 1. HCl

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with HCL The reaction was studied in the gas phase at 10 Torr total pressure in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range of 296-611 K. The second-order rate constants fitted the Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-11.51 +/- 0.06) + (1.92 +/- 0.47 kJ mol(-1))/RTIn10 Experiments at other pressures showed that these rate constants were unaffected by pressure in the range of 10-100 Torr, but showed small decreases in value of no more than 20% ( +/- 10%) at I Toff, at both the highest and lowest temperatures. The data are consistent with formation of an initial weakly bound donor-acceptor complex, which reacts by two parallel pathways. The first is by chlorine-to-silicon H-shift to make vibrationally excited chlorosilane, SiH3Cl*, which yields HSiCl by H-2 elimination from silicon. In the second pathway, the complex proceeds via H-2 elimination (4-center process) to make chlorosilylene, HSiCl, directly. This interpretation is supported by ab initio quantum calculations carried out at the G3 level which reveal the direct H-2 elimination route for the first time. RRKM modeling predicts the approximate magnitude of the pressure effect but is unable to determine the proportions of each pathway. The experimental data agree with the only previous measurements at room temperature. Comparisons with other reactions of SiH2 are also drawn.

The gas-phase reactions Of SiCl4 and Si2Cl6 with CH3OH and C2H5OH: an investigation by mass spectrometry and matrix-isolation infrared spectroscopy

The gas phase reactions Of SiCl4 and Si2Cl6 With CH3OH and C2H5OH have been investigated using both mass spectrometry and matrix isolation techniques. SiCl4 reacts with both CH3OH and C2H5OH upon mixing of the vapours for times in excess of 3 h to generate the HCl-elimination products SiCl3OR (R = CH3 or C2H5). The identity of these products is confirmed by deuteration experiments and by ab initio calculations at the HF/6-31G(d) level. Further products are generated when the mixture is passed through a tube heated to 750degreesC. Si2Cl6 reacts with CH3OH and C2H5OH via a different mechanism in which the Si-Si bond is cleaved to yield SiCl3OR and HCl. Other products of the type SiCl4-n(OCH3)(n) are tentatively identified by a combination of mass spectrometric and matrix isolation measurements. These latter products indicate further replacement of Cl atoms by OR groups as a result of reaction of CH3OH or C2H5OH with the initial product.

Multifunctional acid formation from the gas-phase ozonolysis of beta-pinene

The gas-phase ozonolysis of beta-pinene was studied in static chamber experiments, using gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometric and flame ionisation detection to separate and detect products. A range of multifunctional organic acids-including pinic acid, norpinic acid, pinalic-3- acid, pinalic-4-acid, norpinalic acid and OH-pinalic acid-were identified in the condensed phase after derivatisation. Formation yields for these products under systematically varying reaction conditions (by adding different OH radical scavengers and Criegee intermediate scavengers) were investigated and compared with those observed from alpha-pinene ozonolysis, allowing detailed information on product formation mechanisms to be elucidated. In addition, branching ratios for the initial steps of the reaction were inferred from quantitative measurements of primary carbonyl formation. Atmospheric implications of this work are discussed.

Formation of organic acids from the gas-phase ozonolysis of terpinolene

Gas-phase ozonolysis of terpinolene was studied in static chamber experiments using gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometric and flame ionisation detection to separate and detect products. Two isomers of C-7-diacids and three isomers of C-7-aldehydic acids were identified in the condensed phase after derivatisation. Possible mechanisms of formation of these acids were investigated using different OH radical scavengers and relative humidities, and were compared to those reported earlier for the ozonolysis of beta-pinene. In addition, branching ratios for some of the individual reaction steps, e. g. the branching ratio between the two hydroperoxide channels of the C-7-CI, were deduced from the quantitative product yield data. Branching ratios for POZ decomposition and the stabilisation/decomposition of the C-7-CI were also obtained from measurements of the C-7 primary carbonyl product.

Mechanisms for the formation of organic acids in the gas-phase ozonolysis of 3-carene

This paper describes experimental studies aimed at elucidating mechanisms for the formation of low-volatility organic acids in the gas-phase ozonolysis of 3-carene. Experiments were carried out in a static chamber under 'OH-free' conditions. A range of multifunctional acids-which are analogous to those observed from alpha-pinene ozonolysis-were identified in the condensed phase using gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry after derivation. Product yields were determined as a function of different OH radical scavengers and relative humidities to give mechanistic information about their routes of formation. Furthermore, an enone and an enal derived from 3-carene were ozonised in order to probe the early mechanistic steps in the reaction and, in particular, which of the two initially formed Criegee intermediates gives rise to which products. Branching ratios for the formation of the two Criegee Intermediates are determined. Similarities and differences in product formation from 3-carene and alpha-pinene ozonolysis are discussed and possible mechanisms-supported by experimental evidence-are developed for all acids investigated.

Mechanisms for the formation of secondary organic aerosol components from the gas-phase ozonolysis of alpha-pinene

Gas-phase ozonolysis of alpha-pinene was studied in static chamber experiments under 'OH-free' conditions. A range of multifunctional products-in particular low-volatility carboxylic acids-were identified in the condensed phase using gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry after derivatisation. The dependence of product yields on reaction conditions (humidity, choice of OH radical scavengers, added Criegee intermediate scavengers, NO2 etc.) was investigated to probe the mechanisms of formation of these products; additional information was obtained by studying the ozonolysis of an enal and an enone derived from alpha-pinene. On the basis of experimental findings, previously suggested mechanisms were evaluated and detailed gas-phase mechanisms were developed to explain the observed product formation. Atmospheric implications of this work are discussed.

Emergence of variants with altered survival properties in stationary phase cultures of Campylobacter jejuni

During the stationary phase of Campylobacter jejuni NCTC 11351 viable numbers fluctuate in a characteristic fashion. After reaching the maximum cell count (ca. 2 X 10(9) CFU/ml) in early stationary phase (denoted phase 1), viable numbers subsequently decrease to about 10(6) CFU/ml after 48 h and then increase again to about 10(8) CFU/ml (denoted phase 2) before decreasing once more to a value intermediate between the previous maximum and minimum values. To investigate whether the increase in viable numbers following the initial decline was due to the emergence of a new strain with a growth advantage in stationary phase analogous to the 'GASP' phenotype described in Escherichia coli [Science 259 (1993) 1757], we conducted mixed culture experiments with cells from the original culture and antibiotic-resistant marked organisms isolated from the re-growth phase. In many experiments of this type, strains isolated from phase 2 failed to out-compete the original strain and we have thus been unable to demonstrate a convincing GASP phenotype. However, strains isolated from phase 2 showed a much lower rate of viability loss in early stationary phase and a small increase in resistance to aeration, peroxide challenge and heat, indicating that the emergent strain was different from the parent. These results support the view that dynamic population changes occur during the stationary phase of C jejuni that may play a role in the survival of this organism. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A hybridised evolutionary algorithm for multi-criterion minimum spanning tree problems

A hybridised and Knowledge-based Evolutionary Algorithm (KEA) is applied to the multi-criterion minimum spanning tree problems. Hybridisation is used across its three phases. In the first phase a deterministic single objective optimization algorithm finds the extreme points of the Pareto front. In the second phase a K-best approach finds the first neighbours of the extreme points, which serve as an elitist parent population to an evolutionary algorithm in the third phase. A knowledge-based mutation operator is applied in each generation to reproduce individuals that are at least as good as the unique parent. The advantages of KEA over previous algorithms include its speed (making it applicable to large real-world problems), its scalability to more than two criteria, and its ability to find both the supported and unsupported optimal solutions.

Museum robots: multi-robot systems for public exhibition

Mobile robots provide a versatile platform for research, however they can also provide an interesting educational platform for public exhibition at museums. In general museums require exhibits that are both eye catching and exciting to the public whilst requiring a minimum of maintenance time from museum technicians. In many cases it is simply not possible to continuously change batteries and some method of supplying continous power is required. A powered flooring system is described that is capable of providing power continuously to a group of robots. Three different museum exhibit applications are described. All three robot exhibits are of a similar basic design although the exhibits are very different in appearance and behaviour. The durability and versatility of the robots also makes them extremely good candidates for long duration experiments such as those required by evolutionary robotics.

Gas-phase rate coefficients for the reactions of nitrate radicals with (Z)-pent-2-ene, (E)-pent-2-ene, (Z)-hex-2-ene, (E)-hex-2-ene, (Z)-hex-3-ene, (E)-hex-3-ene and (E)-3-methylpent-2-ene at room temperature

Rate coefficients for reactions of nitrate radicals (NO3) with (Z)-pent-2-ene, (E)-pent-2-ene, (Z)-hex-2-ene, (E)-hex-2-ene, (Z)-hex-3-ene, (E)-hex-3-ene and (E)-3-methylpent-2-ene were determined to be (6.55 +/- 0.78) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), (3.78 +/- 0.45) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), (5.30 +/- 0.73) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), (3.83 +/- 0.47) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), (4.37 +/- 0.49) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), (3.61 +/- 0.40) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and (8.9 +/- 1.5) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), respectively. We performed kinetic experiments at room temperature and atmospheric pressure using a relative-rate technique with GC-FID analysis. The experimental results demonstrate a surprisingly large cis-trans (Z-E) effect, particularly in the case of the pent-2-enes, where the ratio of rate coefficients is ca. 1.7. Rate coefficients are discussed in terms of electronic and steric influences, and our results give some insight into the effects of chain length and position of the double bond on the reaction of NO3 with unsaturated hydrocarbons. Atmospheric lifetimes were calculated with respect to important oxidants in the troposphere for the alkenes studied, and NO3-initiated oxidation is found to be the dominant degradation route for (Z)-pent-2-ene, (Z)-hex-3-ene and (E)-3-methylpent-2-ene.

Phase separated structures in tethered dPS–PMMA copolymer films revealed using X-ray scattering with a novel contrast enhancement agent

Tethered deuterated polystyrene-block-polymethyl methacrylate films have been examined by X-ray scattering both in their native state and following treatment with ruthenium tetroxide. The use of the stain, while increasing the thickness of the films, does not significantly alter the lateral structure or periodicity of the films and provides contrast between the two blocks. Both the periodicity of the films and the structure normal to the surface have been identified following staining. Experiments were also performed on films treated by a solvent exchange process, and the effects of staining on these films are discussed.

The automatic layout model in the sequencing of construction activities of multi-objective diaphragm wall unit by using self-learning neural network

Foundation construction process has been an important key point in a successful construction engineering. The frequency of using diaphragm wall construction method among many deep excavation construction methods in Taiwan is the highest in the world. The traditional view of managing diaphragm wall unit in the sequencing of construction activities is to establish each phase of the sequencing of construction activities by heuristics. However, it conflicts final phase of engineering construction with unit construction and effects planning construction time. In order to avoid this kind of situation, we use management of science in the study of diaphragm wall unit construction to formulate multi-objective combinational optimization problem. Because the characteristic (belong to NP-Complete problem) of problem mathematic model is multi-objective and combining explosive, it is advised that using the 2-type Self-Learning Neural Network (SLNN) to solve the N=12, 24, 36 of diaphragm wall unit in the sequencing of construction activities program problem. In order to compare the liability of the results, this study will use random researching method in comparison with the SLNN. It is found that the testing result of SLNN is superior to random researching method in whether solution-quality or Solving-efficiency.