Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2% ± 13.0% of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8% ± 13.6% of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5% ± 17.6% and 40.9% ± 18.4% of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. Part III: Primitive-equation disturbances on the sphere

Baroclinic instability of perturbations described by the linearized primitive quations, growing on steady zonal jets on the sphere, can be understood in terms of the interaction of pairs of counter-propagating Rossby waves (CRWs). The CRWs can be viewed as the basic components of the dynamical system where the Hamiltonian is the pseudoenergy and each CRW has a zonal coordinate and pseudomomentum. The theory holds for adiabatic frictionless flow to the extent that truncated forms of pseudomomentum and pseudoenergy are globally conserved. These forms focus attention on Rossby wave activity. Normal mode (NM) dispersion relations for realistic jets are explained in terms of the two CRWs associated with each unstable NM pair. Although derived from the NMs, CRWs have the conceptual advantage that their structure is zonally untilted, and can be anticipated given only the basic state. Moreover, their zonal propagation, phase-locking and mutual interaction can all be understood by ‘PV-thinking’ applied at only two ‘home-bases’—potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at one home-base induce circulation anomalies, both locally and at the other home-base, which in turn can advect the PV gradient and modify PV anomalies there. At short wavelengths the upper CRW is focused in the mid-troposphere just above the steering level of the NM, but at longer wavelengths the upper CRW has a second wave-activity maximum at the tropopause. In the absence of meridional shear, CRW behaviour is very similar to that of Charney modes, while shear results in a meridional slant with height of the air-parcel displacement-structures of CRWs in sympathy with basic-state zonal angular-velocity surfaces. A consequence of this slant is that baroclinically growing eddies (on jets broader than the Rossby radius) must tilt downshear in the horizontal, giving rise to up-gradient momentum fluxes that tend to accelerate the barotropic component of the jet.

Chemical composition observed over the mid-Atlantic and the detection of pollution signatures far from source regions

The atmospheric composition of the central North Atlantic region has been sampled using the FAAM BAe146 instrumented aircraft during the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) campaign, part of the wider International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT). This paper presents an overview of the ITOP campaign. Between late July and early August 2004, twelve flights comprising 72 hours of measurement were made in a region from approximately 20 to 40°W and 33 to 47°N centered on Faial Island, Azores, ranging in altitude from 50 to 9000 m. The vertical profiles of O3 and CO are consistent with previous observations made in this region during 1997 and our knowledge of the seasonal cycles within the region. A cluster analysis technique is used to partition the data set into air mass types with distinct chemical signatures. Six clusters provide a suitable balance between cluster generality and specificity. The clusters are labeled as biomass burning, low level outflow, upper level outflow, moist lower troposphere, marine and upper troposphere. During this summer, boreal forest fire emissions from Alaska and northern Canada were found to provide a major perturbation of tropospheric composition in CO, PAN, organic compounds and aerosol. Anthropogenic influenced air from the continental boundary layer of the USA was clearly observed running above the marine boundary layer right across the mid-Atlantic, retaining high pollution levels in VOCs and sulfate aerosol. Upper level outflow events were found to have far lower sulfate aerosol, resulting from washout on ascent, but much higher PAN associated with the colder temperatures. Lagrangian links with flights of other aircraft over the USA and Europe show that such signatures are maintained many days downwind of emission regions. Some other features of the data set are highlighted, including the strong perturbations to many VOCs and OVOCs in this remote region.

Spatial variability of flow statistics within regular building arrays

Turbulence statistics obtained by direct numerical simulations are analysed to investigate spatial heterogeneity within regular arrays of building-like cubical obstacles. Two different array layouts are studied, staggered and square, both at a packing density of λp=0.25 . The flow statistics analysed are mean streamwise velocity ( u− ), shear stress ( u′w′−−−− ), turbulent kinetic energy (k) and dispersive stress fraction ( u˜w˜ ). The spatial flow patterns and spatial distribution of these statistics in the two arrays are found to be very different. Local regions of high spatial variability are identified. The overall spatial variances of the statistics are shown to be generally very significant in comparison with their spatial averages within the arrays. Above the arrays the spatial variances as well as dispersive stresses decay rapidly to zero. The heterogeneity is explored further by separately considering six different flow regimes identified within the arrays, described here as: channelling region, constricted region, intersection region, building wake region, canyon region and front-recirculation region. It is found that the flow in the first three regions is relatively homogeneous, but that spatial variances in the latter three regions are large, especially in the building wake and canyon regions. The implication is that, in general, the flow immediately behind (and, to a lesser extent, in front of) a building is much more heterogeneous than elsewhere, even in the relatively dense arrays considered here. Most of the dispersive stress is concentrated in these regions. Considering the experimental difficulties of obtaining enough point measurements to form a representative spatial average, the error incurred by degrading the sampling resolution is investigated. It is found that a good estimate for both area and line averages can be obtained using a relatively small number of strategically located sampling points.

The moist boundary layer under a mid-latitude weather system

Mid-latitude weather systems are key contributors to the transport of atmospheric water vapour, but less is known about the role of the boundary layer in this transport. We expand a conceptual model of dry boundary-layer structure under synoptic systems to include moist processes, using idealised simulations of cyclone waves to investigate the three-way interaction between the boundary layer, atmospheric moisture and large-scale dynamics. Forced by large-scale thermal advection, boundary-layer structures develop over large areas, analogous to the daytime convective boundary layer, the nocturnal stable boundary layer and transitional regimes between these extremes.

An eclectic morphostratigraphic model for the sedimentary response to Holocene sea-level rise in northwest Europe

The improved empirical understanding of silt facies in Holocene coastal sequences provided by such as diatom, foraminifera, ostracode and testate amoebae analysis, combined with insights from quantitative stratigraphic and hydraulic simulations, has led to an inclusive, integrated model for the palaeogeomorphology, stratigraphy, lithofacies and biofacies of northwest European Holocene coastal lowlands in relation to sea-level behaviour. The model covers two general circumstances and is empirically supported by a range of field studies in the Holocene deposits of a number of British estuaries, particularly, the Severn. Where deposition was continuous over periods of centuries to millennia, and sea level fluctuated about a rising trend, the succession consists of repeated cycles of silt and peat lithofacies and biofacies in which series of transgressive overlaps (submergence sequences) alternate with series of regressive overlaps (emergence sequences) in association with the waxing and waning of tidal creek networks. Environmental and sea-level change are closely coupled, and equilibrium and secular pattern is of the kind represented ideally by a closed limit cycle. In the second circumstance, characteristic of unstable wetland shores and generally affecting smaller areas, coastal erosion ensures that episodes of deposition in the high intertidal zone last no more than a few centuries. The typical response is a series of regressive overlaps (emergence sequence) in erosively based high mudflat and salt-marsh silts that record, commonly as annual banding, exceptionally high deposition rates and a state of strong disequilibrium. Environmental change, including creek development, and sea-level movement are uncoupled. Only if deposition proceeds for a sufficiently long period, so that marshes mature, are equilibrium and close coupling regained. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Granulometric characterization and evaluation of annually banded mid-Holocene estuarine silts, Welsh Severn Estuary (UK): coastal change, sea level and climate

Holocene silts (salt marshes) and highest intertidal-supratidal peats are superbly exposed on a 15 kin coastal transect which reveals two laterally extensive units of annually banded silts (Beds 3, 7) associated with three transgressive-regressive silt-peat cycles (early sixth-early fourth millennium BC). Bed 3 in places is concordantly and gradationally related to peats above and below, but in others transgresses older strata. Bed 7 also grades up into peat, but everywhere overlies a discordance. The banding in Bed 3 at three main and two minor sites was resolved and characterized texturally at high-resolution (2.5/5 mm contiguous slices) using laser granulometry (LS230 with PIDS) and a comprehensive scheme of data-assessment. Most of Bed 3 formed very rapidly, at peak values of several tens of millimetres annually, in accordance with modelled effects of sea-level fluctuations on mature marshes (bed concordant and gradational) and on marshes growing up after coastal erosion and retreat (bed with discordant base). Using data from the modern Severn Estuary, the textural contrast within bands, and its variation between bands, points to a variable but overall milder mid-Holocene climate than today. The inter-annual variability affected marsh dynamics, as shown by the behaviour of the finely divided plant tissues present. Given local calibration, the methodology is applicable to other tidal systems with banded silts in Britain and mainland northwest Europe. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Holocene tidal palaeochannels, Severn Estuary Levels, UK: a search for granulometric and foraminiferal criteria

Holocene tidal palaoechannels, Severn Estuary Levels, UK: a search for granulometric and foraminiferal criteria. Proceedings of the Geologists' Association, 117, 329-344. Grain-size characteristics (by laser granulometry) and foraminiferal assemblages have been established for silts accumulated in five, dissimilar tidal palaeochannels of mid or late Holocene age in the Severn Estuary Levels, representative of muddy tidal systems. For purposes of general comparison, similar data were obtained from a representative active tidal inlet in the area, but all of these channels have been subject to human interference and are not relied upon as a model for environmental interpretation. Although the palaeochannel deposits differ substantially in their bedding characteristics and stratigraphical relationships from the level-bedded salt-marsh platform and mudflat deposits with which they are associated, and although the channel environment is distinctive morphologically and hydraulically, no critical textural differences could be found between the channel deposits and the associated facies. Similarly, no foraminiferal assemblages distinctive of a tidal channel were encountered. Instead, the assemblages compare with those from mudflats and salt-marsh platforms. It is concluded that the sides of the subfossil channels carried some vegetation, as was observed to be the case in the modern inlet. An alternative approach is necessary if concealed palaeochannel deposits are to be recognized in muddy systems from limited numbers of subsurface samples. Although the palaeochannels afforded no characteristic textural signature, they yield transverse grain-size patterns pointing to coastal movements during their evolution. Concave-up trends suggest outward coastal building, whereas convex-up ones point to marsh-edge retreat.

Seasonality of delta C-13 and C/N ratios in modern and mid-holocene sediments in the Severn Estuary levels, SW Britain

Bulk organic VC and C/N ratios from mid-Holocene salt-marsh deposits with sedimentary banding reveal subtle but significant differences between coarse- and fine-grained deposits. These are consistent with findings from seasonally sampled modern silts, and with the interpretation, on physical and palynological grounds, of the fine-grained and coarse-grained components as warm-season and cold-season deposits, respectively. The control is considered to be seasonal variations in the character of the organic matter supplied.