North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5-10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970-1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061 +/- 0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models' inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.

General concepts in meteorology and dynamics

The aim of this chapter is to give a general overview of the atmospheric circulation, highlighting the main concepts that are important for a basic understanding of meteorology and atmospheric dynamics relevant to atmospheric data assimilation.

Curbing agricultural exceptionalism: The EU's response to external challenge

From 1948 to 1994, the agricultural sector was afforded special treatment in the GATT. We analyse the extent to which this agricultural exceptionalism was curbed as a result of the GATT Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, discuss why it was curbed and finally explore the implication of this for EU policy making. We argue that, in particular, two major changes in GATT institutions brought about restrictions on agricultural exceptionalism. First, the Uruguay Round was a 'single undertaking' in which progress on other dossiers was contingent upon an outcome on agriculture. The EU had keenly supported this new decision rule in the GATT. Within the EU this led to the MacSharry reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 1992, paving the way for a trade agreement on agriculture within the GATT. Second, under the new quasi-judicial dispute settlement procedure, countries are expected to bring their policies into conformity with WTO rules or face retaliatory trade sanctions. This has brought about a greater willingness on the part of the EU to submit its farm policy to WTO disciplines.

Concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights: Some implications for developing countries

This paper explores concentration levels in the ownership of intellectual property rights over plant varieties worldwide. An analysis of data for 30 UPOV member-countries shows a high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights for six major crops at the national level in the developed world. Much of this concentration has arisen owing to the rapid consolidation of the seed industry through mergers and acquisitions, especially in the 1990s. A high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights, in combination with recent efforts to strengthen plant variety protection regimes, is likely to have significant effects on the prospects for future innovation in plant breeding and the distribution of market power between companies. For developing countries, concentration in intellectual property right ownership may have important implications for the structure of domestic seed industries and access to protected varieties and associated plant breeding technologies. These implications for developing countries are likely to become apparent in the context of the rapid spread of plant variety protection and access legislation, emerging changes in the international exchange regime for plant material and liberalised investment policies permitting foreign investment in the seeds sector.

Concentration in ownership of plant variety rights: some implications for developing countries

This paper explores concentration levels in the ownership of intellectual property rights over plant varieties worldwide. An analysis of data for 30 UPOV member-countries shows a high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights for six major crops at the national level in the developed world. Much of this concentration has arisen owing to the rapid consolidation of the seed industry through mergers and acquisitions, especially in the 1990s. A high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights, in combination with recent efforts to strengthen plant variety protection regimes, is likely to have significant effects on the prospects for future innovation in plant breeding and the distribution of market power between companies. For developing countries, concentration in intellectual property right ownership may have important implications for the structure of domestic seed industries and access to protected varieties and associated plant breeding technologies. These implications for developing countries are likely to become apparent in the context of the rapid spread of plant variety protection and access legislation, emerging changes in the international exchange regime for plant material and liberalised investment policies permitting foreign investment in the seeds sector. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

Disease-weather relationships influencing Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) preceding growth stage (GS) 31 were identified using data from 12 sites in the UK covering 8 years. Based on these relationships, an early-warning predictive model for SLB on winter wheat was formulated to predict the occurrence of a damaging epidemic (defined as disease severity of 5% or > 5% on the top three leaf layers). The final model was based on accumulated rain > 3 mm in the 80-day period preceding GS 31 (roughly from early-February to the end of April) and accumulated minimum temperature with a 0A degrees C base in the 50-day period starting from 120 days preceding GS 31 (approximately January and February). The model was validated on an independent data set on which the prediction accuracy was influenced by cultivar resistance. Over all observations, the model had a true positive proportion of 0.61, a true negative proportion of 0.73, a sensitivity of 0.83, and a specificity of 0.18. True negative proportion increased to 0.85 for resistant cultivars and decreased to 0.50 for susceptible cultivars. Potential fungicide savings are most likely to be made with resistant cultivars, but such benefits would need to be identified with an in-depth evaluation.

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to he stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase H and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sialyloligosaccharides inhibit cholera toxin binding to the GM1 receptor

It is recognised that cholera toxin (Ctx) is a significant cause of gastrointestinal disease globally, particularly in developing countries where access to uncontaminated drinking water is at a premium. Ctx vaccines are prohibitively expensive and only give short-term protection. Consequently, there is scope for the development of alternative control strategies or prophylactics. This may include the use of oligosaccharides as functional mimics for the cell-surface toxin receptor (GM I). Furthermore, the sialic acid component of epithelial receptors has already been shown to contribute significantly to the adhesion and pathogenesis of Ctx. Here, we demonstrate the total inhibition of Ctx using GM1-competitive ELISA with 25 mg mL(-1) of a commercial preparation of sialyloligosaccharides (SOS). The IC50 value was calculated as 5.21 mg mL(-1). One-hundred percent inhibition was also observed at all concentrations of Ctx-HRP tested with 500 ng mL(-1) GM1-OS. Whilst SOS has much lower affinity for Ctx than GM1-OS, the commercial preparation is impure containing only 33.6% carbohydrate; however, the biantennary nature of SOS appears to give a significant increase in potency over constituent monosaccahride residues. It is proposed that SOS could be used as a conventional food additive, such as in emulsifiers, stabilisers or sweeteners, and are classified as nondigestible oligosaccharides that pass into the small intestine, which is the site of Ctx pathogenesis. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Galactooligosaccharides (GOS) inhibit Vibrio cholerae toxin binding to its GM1 receptor

It is widely reported that cholera toxin (Ctx) remains a significant cause of gastrointestinal disease globally, particularly in developing countries where access to clean drinking water is at a premium. Vaccines are prohibitively expensive and have shown only short-term protection. Consequently, there is scope for continued development of novel treatment strategies. One example is the use of galactooligosaccharides (GOS) as functional mimics for the cell-surface toxin receptor (GM1). In this study, GOS fractions were fractionated using cation exchange chromatography followed by structural characterization using a combination of hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) and electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) such that their molecular weight profiles were known. Each profile was correlated against biological activity measured using a competitive inhibitory GM1-linked ELISA. GOS fractions containing > 5% hexasaccharides (DP6) exhibited > 90% binding, with EC50 values between 29.27 and 56.04 mg/mL. Inhibition by GOS DP6, was dose dependent, with an EC50 value of 5.10 mg/mL (5.15 mu M MW of 990 Da). In removing low molecular weight carbohydrates that do possess prebiotic, nutraceutical, and/or biological properties and concentrating GOS DP5 and/or DP6, Ctx antiadhesive activity per unit of (dry) weight was improved. This could be advantageous in the manufacture of pharmaceutical or nutraceutical formulations for the treatment or prevention of an acute or chronic disease associated with or caused by the adhesion and/or uptake of a Ctx or HLT.

GM crops, developing countries and food security

The agronomic and economic performance of genetically modified (GM) crops relative to their conventional counterparts has been largely investigated worldwide. As a result there is considerable information to conduct a meta-analysis to evaluate the agronomic and economic relative performance of GM crops vs. non GM crops by crop, GM trait, and country’s level of development. Such meta-analysis has been recently conducted showing that overall GM crops outperform non GM crops in both agronomic and economic terms (1). This paper focuses on the agronomic and economic performance of GM crops in developing and developed countries as well as the potential implications for global food security of adoption of GM crops by developing countries. The presumption that technology only benefits the developed world is not supported by the meta-analysis conducted. No evidence that GM technology benefits moredeveloped than developing countries was found. Indeed, the agronomic and economic performance of GM crops vs. conventional crops tends to be better for developing than for developed countries. Although it is manifested that the conventional agronomic practices in developing countries are different to those in developed countries, it is also apparent that GM crop adoption in developing countries may help to tackle the growing concerns over the scarcity of food globally.