Western Chess: Zugzwang data

This data is derived from Eugene Nalimov's Depth-to-Mate Endgame Tables for Western Chess. While having the move is normally advantageous, there are positions where the side-to-move would have a better theoretical result if it were the other side to move. These are (Type A) 'zugzwang' positions where the 'obligation to act' is unwelcome. This data provides lists of all zugzwangs in sub-7-man chess, and summary data about those sets of zugzwangs including exemplar zugzwangs of maximum depth.

Chess Endgame News

Three topics are discussed. First, an issue in the epistemology of computer simulation - that of the chess endgame 'becoming' what computer-generated data says it is. Secondly, the endgames of the longest known games are discussed, and the concept of a Bionic Game is defined. Lastly, the set of record-depth positions published by Bourzutschky and Konoval are evaluated by the new MVL tables in Moscow - alongside the deepest known mate of 549 moves.

Six-man Oracle Survey, 1

This is a list in GBR order of existing 6-man endgame tables (EGTs) created by Nalimov (DTM, Distance to Mate) or Thompson (DTC, Distance to Conversion).

Haworth's Law

The maximum 'Depth to Mate' (DTM(k)) data for k-man chess, k = 3-7, is now available: log(maxDTM(k)) demonstrates quasi-linear behaviour. This note predicts maxDTM for 8- to 10-man chess and the two-sigma distributions around these figures. 'Haworth's Law' is the conjecture that maxDTM will continue to demonstrate this behaviour for some time to come. The supporting datafile is a pgn of maxDTM positions, each having a DTM-minimaxing line of play from it to 'mate'.

Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants.

Climate change projections and selected impacts for Vietnam

In September 2013, the 5th Assessment Report (5AR) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been released. Taking the 5AR cli-mate change scenarios into account, the World Bank published an earli-er report on climate change and its impacts on selected hot spot re-gions, including Southeast Asia. Currently, dynamical and statistical-dynamical downscaling efforts are underway to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical South-east Asia, including Vietnam. Such initiatives are formalized under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Coordinated Regional Dynamic Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia and Southeast Asia and also take place in climate change impact projects such as the joint Vietnam-ese-German project “Environmental and Water Protection Technologies of Coastal Zones in Vietnam (EWATEC-COAST)”. In this contribution, the lat-est assessments for changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and tropical cyclones (TCs) under the 5AR Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 are reviewed. Special emphasis is put on changes in extreme events like heat waves and/or heavy precipita-tion. A regional focus is Vietnam south of 16°N. A continued increase in mean near surface temperature is projected, reaching up to 5°C at the end of this century in northern Vietnam un-der the high greenhouse-gas forcing scenario RCP8.5. Overall, project-ed changes in annual precipitation are small, but there is a tendency of more rainfall in the boreal winter dry season. Unprecedented heat waves and an increase in extreme precipitation events are projected by both global and regional climate models. Globally, TCs are projected to decrease in number, but an increase in intensity of peak winds and rain-fall in the inner core region is estimated. Though an assessment of changes in land-falling frequency in Vietnam is uncertain due to difficul-ties in assessing changes in TC tracks, some work indicates a reduction in the number of land-falling TCs in Vietnam. Sea level may rise by 75-100 cm until the end of the century with the Vietnamese coastline experienc-ing 10-15% higher rise than on global average. Given the large rice and aquaculture production in the Mekong and Red River Deltas, that are both prone to TC-related storm surges and flooding, this poses a challenge to foodsecurity and protection of coastal population and assets.

Biology and reproductive behavior of Murgantia histrionica (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae)

Life history parameters and reproductive behaviors of the harlequin bug, Murgantia histrionica Hahn (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), were determined. Total developmental time from egg to adult was ≈48 d. After a sexual maturation period of ≈7 d, both sexes mated repeatedly, with females laying multiple egg masses of 12 eggs at intervals of 3 d. Adult females lived an average of 41 d, whereas adult males lived an average of 25 d. Courtship and copulation activities peaked in the middle of the photophase. In mating experiments in which mixed sex pairs of virgin and previously mated bugs were combined in all possible combinations, the durations of courtship and copulation by virgin males were significantly longer with both virgin and previously mated females than the same behaviors for previously mated males. When given a choice between a virgin or previously mated female, previously mated males preferred to mate with virgin females, whereas virgin males showed no preference for virgin over previously mated females. Analyses of mating behaviors with ethograms and behavioral transition matrices suggested that a primary reason for failure to copulate by virgin males was the incorrect rotation of their pygophores to the copulation position, so that successful alignment of the genitalia could not occur.

Disrupting the market for illegal rhino horn and ivory

This paper considers methods for regulating the trafficking of rhino horn and ivory, seen through the lens of compliance theories. It stresses the importance of the distinction between normative and instrumental motivations. It argues for a balanced set of strategies that include normative levers designed to change the behaviour of poachers, traffickers and consumers of these products. In particular it considers the options needed to achieve demand reduction in consumer countries, and those needed to provide incentives to local communities in producer countries to disengage from poaching.

Fighting in fig wasps: do males avoid killing brothers or do they never meet them?

1. In many fig wasp species, armoured wingless males regularly engage in lethal fights for access to females inside figs, which act as discrete mating patches. 2. Kin selection generally opposes killing brothers, because their reproductive success provides indirect genetic benefits (inclusive fitness). However, siblicide may be avoided if (i) brothers do not occur in the same figs, or (ii) males avoid fighting brothers in the same fig. Alternatively, (iii) siblicide may occur because intense mate competition between brothers at the local scale overcomes kin selection effects, or (iv) males do not recognise kin. 3. A fig may also contain wasps from other closely related species and it is not known if males also fight with these individuals. 4. Nine microsatellite loci were used in the first genetic analysis of fighting in fig wasps. We assigned species and sibling identities to males and tested alternative fighting scenarios for three Sycoscapter wasp species in figs of Ficus rubiginosa. 5. Approximately 60% of figs contained males frommore than one Sycoscapter species and approximately 80% of fights were between conspecifics, but a surprising 20% were between heterospecific males. 6.Within species, fewfigs contained brothers, suggesting that females typically lay one son per fig. Overall, most males do not compete with brothers and all fights observed were between unrelated males. Key words:Competition, fighting, genetics, kin selection, microsatellites, relatedness.