Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.

Extreme rainfall variability in Australia: Patterns, drivers and predictability

Leading patterns of observed monthly extreme rainfall variability in Australia are examined using an Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) method. Extreme rainfall variability is more closely related to mean rainfall variability during austral summer than in winter. The leading EOT patterns of extreme rainfall explain less variance in Australia-wide extreme rainfall than is the case for mean rainfall EOTs. We illustrate that, as with mean rainfall, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has the strongest association with warm-season extreme rainfall variability, while in the cool-season the primary drivers are atmospheric blocking and the subtropical ridge. The Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode also have significant relationships with patterns of variability during austral winter and spring. Leading patterns of summer extreme rainfall variability have predictability several months ahead from Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and as much as a year in advance from Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability from the Pacific is greater for wetter than average summer months than for months that are drier than average, whereas for the Indian Ocean the relationship has greater linearity. Several cool-season EOTs are associated with mid-latitude synoptic-scale patterns along the south and east coasts. These patterns have common atmospheric signatures denoting moist onshore flow and strong cyclonic anomalies often to the north of a blocking anti-cyclone. Tropical cyclone activity is observed to have significant relationships with some warm season EOTs. This analysis shows that extreme rainfall variability in Australia can be related to remote drivers and local synoptic-scale patterns throughout the year.

A traceable physical calibration of the vertical advection-diffusion equation for modelling ocean heat uptake

The classic vertical advection-diffusion (VAD) balance is a central concept in studying the ocean heat budget, in particular in simple climate models (SCMs). Here we present a new framework to calibrate the parameters of the VAD equation to the vertical ocean heat balance of two fully-coupled climate models that is traceable to the models’ circulation as well as to vertical mixing and diffusion processes. Based on temperature diagnostics, we derive an effective vertical velocity w∗ and turbulent diffusivity k∗ for each individual physical process. In steady-state, we find that the residual vertical velocity and diffusivity change sign in mid-depth, highlighting the different regional contributions of isopycnal and diapycnal diffusion in balancing the models’ residual advection and vertical mixing. We quantify the impacts of the time-evolution of the effective quantities under a transient 1%CO2 simulation and make the link to the parameters of currently employed SCMs.

Cortical hot spots and labyrinths: why cortical neuromodulation for episodic migraine with aura should be personalized

Stimulation protocols for medical devices should be rationally designed. For episodic migraine with aura we outline model-based design strategies toward preventive and acute therapies using stereotactic cortical neuromodulation. To this end, we regard a localized spreading depression (SD) wave segment as a central element in migraine pathophysiology. To describe nucleation and propagation features of the SD wave segment, we define the new concepts of cortical hot spots and labyrinths, respectively. In particular, we firstly focus exclusively on curvature-induced dynamical properties by studying a generic reaction-diffusion model of SD on the folded cortical surface. This surface is described with increasing level of details, including finally personalized simulations using patient's magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner readings. At this stage, the only relevant factor that can modulate nucleation and propagation paths is the Gaussian curvature, which has the advantage of being rather readily accessible by MRI. We conclude with discussing further anatomical factors, such as areal, laminar, and cellular heterogeneity, that in addition to and in relation to Gaussian curvature determine the generalized concept of cortical hot spots and labyrinths as target structures for neuromodulation. Our numerical simulations suggest that these target structures are like fingerprints, they are individual features of each migraine sufferer. The goal in the future will be to provide individualized neural tissue simulations. These simulations should predict the clinical data and therefore can also serve as a test bed for exploring stereotactic cortical neuromodulation.

Fibrin activates GPVI in human and mouse platelets

The glycoprotein VI (GPVI)-Fc receptor γ (FcRγ) chain is the major platelet signaling receptor for collagen. Paradoxically, in a FeCl3 injury model, occlusion, but not initiation of thrombus formation, is delayed in GPVI-deficient and GPVI-depleted mice. In this study, we demonstrate that GPVI is a receptor for fibrin and speculate that this contributes to development of an occlusive thrombus. We observed a marked increase in tyrosine phosphorylation, including the FcRγ chain and Syk, in human and mouse platelets induced by thrombin in the presence of fibrinogen and the αIIbβ3 blocker eptifibatide. This was not seen in platelets stimulated by a protease activated receptor (PAR)-4 peptide, which is unable to generate fibrin from fibrinogen. The pattern of tyrosine phosphorylation was similar to that induced by activation of GPVI. Consistent with this, thrombin did not induce tyrosine phosphorylation of Syk and the FcRγ chain in GPVI-deficient mouse platelets. Mouse platelets underwent full spreading on fibrin but not fibrinogen, which was blocked in the presence of a Src kinase inhibitor or in the absence of GPVI. Spreading on fibrin was associated with phosphatidylserine exposure (procoagulant activity), and this too was blocked in GPVI-deficient platelets. The ectodomain of GPVI was shown to bind to immobilized monomeric and polymerized fibrin. A marked increase in embolization was seen following FeCl3 injury in GPVI-deficient mice, likely contributing to the delay in occlusion in this model. These results demonstrate that GPVI is a receptor for fibrin and provide evidence that this interaction contributes to thrombus growth and stability.

SLAP/SLAP2 prevent excessive platelet (hem)ITAM signaling in thrombosis and ischemic stroke in mice

Glycoprotein VI and C-type lectin-like receptor 2 are essential platelet activating receptors in hemostasis and thrombo-inflammatory disease, which signal through a (hem)immunoreceptor tyrosine-based activation motif (ITAM)-dependent pathway. The adapter molecules Src-like adapter proteins (SLAP and SLAP2) are involved in the regulation of immune cell surface expression and signaling, but their function in platelets is unknown. In this study, we show that platelets expressed both SLAP isoforms and that overexpression of either protein in a heterologous cell line almost completely inhibited glycoprotein VI and C-type lectin-like receptor 2 signaling. In mice, single deficiency of SLAP or SLAP2 had only moderate effects on platelet function, whereas double deficiency of both adapters resulted in markedly increased signal transduction, integrin activation, granule release, aggregation, procoagulant activity, and thrombin generation in response to (hem)ITAM-coupled, but not G protein-coupled, receptor activation. In vivo, constitutive SLAP/SLAP2 knockout mice displayed accelerated occlusive arterial thrombus formation and a dramatically worsened outcome after focal cerebral ischemia. This was attributed to the absence of both adapter proteins in platelets, as demonstrated by adoptive transfer of Slap(-/-)/Slap2(-/-) platelets into wild-type mice. Our results establish SLAP and SLAP2 as critical inhibitors of platelet (hem)ITAM signaling in the setting of arterial thrombosis and ischemic stroke.

Myostatin is a key mediator between energy metabolism and endurance capacity of skeletal muscle

Myostatin (Mstn) participates in the regulation of skeletal muscle size and has emerged as a regulator of muscle metabolism. Here, we hypothesized that lack of myostatin profoundly depresses oxidative phosphorylation-dependent muscle function. Toward this end, we explored Mstn/ mice as a model for the constitutive absence of myostatin and AAV-mediated overexpression of myostatin propeptide as a model of myostatin blockade in adult wild-type mice. We show that muscles from Mstn/ mice, although larger and stronger, fatigue extremely rapidly. Myostatin deficiency shifts muscle from aerobic toward anaerobic energy metabolism, as evidenced by decreased mitochondrial respiration, reduced expression of PPAR transcriptional regulators, increased enolase activity, and exercise-induced lactic acidosis. As a consequence, constitutively reduced myostatin signaling diminishes exercise capacity, while the hypermuscular state of Mstn/ mice increases oxygen consumption and the energy cost of running. We wondered whether these results are the mere consequence of the congenital fiber-type switch toward a glycolytic phenotype of constitutive Mstn/ mice. Hence, we overexpressed myostatin propeptide in adult mice, which did not affect fiber-type distribution, while nonetheless causing increased muscle fatigability, diminished exercise capacity, and decreased Pparb/d and Pgc1a expression. In conclusion, our results suggest that myostatin endows skeletal muscle with high oxidative capacity and low fatigability, thus regulating the delicate balance between muscle mass, muscle force, energy metabolism, and endurance capacity.

Blockade of ActRIIB signaling triggers muscle fatigability and metabolic myopathy

Myostatin regulates skeletal muscle size via the activin receptor IIB (ActRIIB). However, its effect on muscle energy metabolism and energy dependent muscle function remains largely unexplored. This question needs to be solved urgently since various therapies for neuromuscular diseases based on blockade of ActRIIB signaling are being developed. Here we show in mice that four months of pharmacological abrogation of ActRIIB signaling by treatment with soluble ActRIIB-Fc triggers extreme muscle fatigability. This is associated with elevated serum lactate levels and a severe metabolic myopathy in the mdx mouse, an animal model of Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Blockade of ActRIIB signaling down-regulates Porin, a crucial ADP/ATP shuttle between cytosol and mitochondrial matrix leading to a consecutive deficiency of oxidative phosphorylation as measured by in vivo Phophorus Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (31P-MRS). Further, ActRIIB blockade reduces muscle capillarization, which further compounds the metabolic stress. We show that ActRIIB regulates key determinants of muscle metabolism, such as Pparβ, Pgc1α, and Pdk4 thereby optimizing different components of muscle energy metabolism. In conclusion, ActRIIB signaling endows skeletal muscle with high oxidative capacity and low fatigability. The severe metabolic side effects following ActRIIB blockade caution against deploying this strategy, at least in isolation, for treatment of neuromuscular disorders.

The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes

Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art climate models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means, due to greater variability in extremes. Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas. Remarkably, even precipitation extremes that have very large variability are projected to emerge in the coming decades in Northern Hemisphere winters associated with a wettening trend. Based on our findings we expect local temperature and precipitation extremes to already differ significantly from their previous quasi-natural state at many locations or to do so in the near future. Our findings have implications for climate impacts and detection and attribution studies assessing observed changes in regional climate extremes by showing whether they will likely find a fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change.

Characterisation of microsatellite markers for fig-pollinating wasps in the Pleistodontes imperialis species complex

We characterised a set of nine polymorphic microsatellite loci for Pleistodontes imperialis sp. 1, the pollinator wasp of Port Jackson fig (Ficus rubiginosa) in south-eastern Australia. Characterisation was performed on 30 female individuals collected from a population in Sydney, Australia. The average number of alleles per locus was 7.33, and eight loci were not in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. This was expected as fig wasps are known to be highly inbred. A test of genetic differentiation between two natural populations of P. imperialis sp. 1 (Sydney and Newcastle, Australia – some 120 km apart) yielded a very low FST value of 0.012, suggesting considerable gene flow. Bayesian clustering analysis using TESS 2.3.1, which does not assume Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, however, indicated potential spatial substructuring between the Sydney and Newcastle populations, as well as within the Sydney population. The described loci were also characterised for two other species in the P. imperialis complex: P. imperialis sp. 2 (Townsville, Australia) and P. imperialis sp. 4 (Brisbane, Australia). Seven and six of the nine loci were polymorphic for P. imperialis sp. 2 and P.imperialis sp. 4, respectively.

Transit times – the link between hydrology and water quality at the catchment scale

In spite of trying to understand processes in the same spatial domain, the catchment hydrology and water quality scientific communities are relatively disconnected and so are their respective models. This is emphasized by an inadequate representation of transport processes, in both catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. While many hydrological models at the catchment scale only account for pressure propagation and not for mass transfer, catchment scale water quality models are typically limited by overly simplistic representations of flow processes. With the objective of raising awareness for this issue and outlining potential ways forward we provide a non-technical overview of (1) the importance of hydrology-controlled transport through catchment systems as the link between hydrology and water quality; (2) the limitations of current generation catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models; (3) the concept of transit times as tools to quantify transport and (4) the benefits of transit time based formulations of solute transport for catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. There is emerging evidence that an explicit formulation of transport processes, based on the concept of transit times has the potential to improve the understanding of the integrated system dynamics of catchments and to provide a stronger link between catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (dD) and oxygen (d18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of 17Oexcess derived from precise measurement of d17O and d18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17Oexcess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (dD, d17O and d18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean dD, d18O and d17O are �71.0‰, �9.9‰, �5.2‰ for precipitation, �60.3‰, �8.7‰, �4.6‰ for cave drip water and �61.3‰, �8.3‰, �4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17Oexcess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (D of ~ þ 10‰ for dD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8e10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first d17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the d17O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.