Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of biotic and abiotic factors in evolution of ant dispersal in the milkwort family (Polygalaceae)

A phylogenetic approach was taken to investigate the evolutionary history of seed appendages in the plant family Polygalaceae (Fabales) and determine which factors might be associated with evolution of elaiosomes through comparisons to abiotic (climate) and biotic (ant species number and abundance) timelines. Molecular datasets from three plastid regions representing 160 species were used to reconstruct a phylogenetic tree of the order Fabales, focusing on Polygalaceae. Bayesian dating methods were used to estimate the age of the appearance of ant-dispersed elaiosomes in Polygalaceae, shown by likelihood optimizations to have a single origin in the family. Topology-based tests indicated a diversification rate shift associated with appearance of caruncular elaiosomes. We show that evolution of the caruncular elaiosome type currently associated with ant dispersal occurred 54.0-50.5 million year ago. This is long after an estimated increase in ant lineages in the Late Cretaceous based on molecular studies, but broadly concomitant with increasing global temperatures culminating in the Late Paleocene-Early Eocene thermal maxima. These results suggest that although most major ant clades were present when elaiosomes appeared, the environmental significance of elaiosomes may have been an important factor in success of elaiosome-bearing lineages. Ecological abundance of ants is perhaps more important than lineage numbers in determining significance of ant dispersal. Thus, our observation that elaiosomes predate increased ecological abundance of ants inferred from amber deposits could be indicative of an initial abiotic environmental function.

Export of dissolved organic carbon from an upland peatland during storm events: implications for flux estimates

Most of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported from catchments is transported during storm events. Accurate assessments of DOC fluxes are essential to understand long-term trends in the transport of DOC from terrestrial to aquatic systems, and also the loss of carbon from peatlands to determine changes in the source/sink status of peatland carbon stores. However, many long-term monitoring programmes collect water samples at a frequency (e.g. weekly/monthly) less than the time period of a typical storm event (typically <1–2 days). As widespread observations in catchments dominated by organo-mineral soils have shown that both concentration and flux of DOC increases during storm events, lower frequency monitoring could result in substantial underestimation of DOC flux as the most dynamic periods of transport are missed. However, our intensive monitoring study in a UK upland peatland catchment showed a contrasting response to these previous studies. Our results showed that (i) DOC concentrations decreased during autumn storm events and showed a poor relationship with flow during other seasons; and that (ii) this decrease in concentrations during autumn storms caused DOC flux estimates based on weekly monitoring data to be over-estimated, rather than under-estimated, because of over rather than under estimation of the flow-weighted mean concentration used in flux calculations. However, as DOC flux is ultimately controlled by discharge volume, and therefore rainfall, and the magnitude of change in discharge was greater than the magnitude of decline in concentrations, DOC flux increased during individual storm events. The implications for long-term DOC trends are therefore contradictory, as increased rainfall could increase flux but cause an overall decrease in DOC concentrations from peatland streams. Care needs to be taken when interpreting long-term trends in DOC flux rather than concentration; as flux is calculated from discharge estimates, and discharge is controlled by rainfall, DOC flux and rainfall/discharge will always be well correlated.

Effects of vitamin E and fish oil inclusion in broiler diets on meat fatty acid composition and on the flavour of a composite sample of breast meat

BACKGROUND: Enriching poultry meat with long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFA) can increase low population intakes of LC n-3 PUFA, but fishy taints can spoil reheated meat. This experiment determined the effect of different amounts of LC n-3 PUFA and vitamin E in the broiler diet on the fatty acid composition and sensory characteristics of the breast meat. Ross 308 broilers (120) were randomly allocated to one of five treatments from 21 to 42 days of age. Diets contained (g kg−1) 0, 9 or 18 LC n-3 PUFA (0LC, 9LC, 18LC), and 100, 150 or 200 mg LD--tocopherol acetate kg−1 (E). The five diets were 0LC100E, 9LC100E, 18LC100E, 18LC150E, 18LC200E, with four pens per diet, except 18LC100E (eight pens). Breast meat was analysed for fatty acids (uncooked) and sensory analysis by R-index (reheated). RESULTS: LC n-3 PUFA content (mg kg−1 meat) was 514 (0LC100E) and 2236 (9LC and 18LC). Compared with 0LC100E, meat from 18LC100E and 18LC150E tasted significantly different, while 23% of panellists detected fishy taints in 9LC100E and 18LC200E. CONCLUSION: Chicken meat can be enriched with nutritionally meaningful amounts of LC n-3 PUFA, but > 100 mg dl--tocopherol acetate kg−1 broiler diet is needed to protect reheated meat from oxidative deterioration. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry

Representativity of in situ precipitation measurements - a case study for the LITFASS area in North-Eastern Germany

In situ precipitation measurements can extremely differ in space and time. Taking into account the limited spatial–temporal representativity and the uncertainty of a single station is important for validating mesoscale numerical model results as well as for interpreting remote sensing data. In situ precipitation data from a high resolution network in North-Eastern Germany are analysed to determine their temporal and spatial representativity. For the dry year 2003 precipitation amounts were available with 10 min resolution from 14 rain gauges distributed in an area of 25 km 25 km around the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg (Richard-Aßmann Observatory). Our analysis reveals that short-term (up to 6 h) precipitation events dominate (94% of all events) and that the distribution is skewed with a high frequency of very low precipitation amounts. Long-lasting precipitation events are rare (6% of all precipitation events), but account for nearly 50% of the annual precipitation. The spatial representativity of a single-site measurement increases slightly for longer measurement intervals and the variability decreases. Hourly precipitation amounts are representative for an area of 11 km 11 km. Daily precipitation amounts appear to be reliable with an uncertainty factor of 3.3 for an area of 25 km 25 km, and weekly and monthly precipitation amounts have uncertainties of a factor of 2 and 1.4 when compared to 25 km 25 km mean values.

Evaluation of two "integrated" polarimetric Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) algorithms at C-band

Two so-called “integrated” polarimetric rate estimation techniques, ZPHI (Testud et al., 2000) and ZZDR (Illingworth and Thompson, 2005), are evaluated using 12 episodes of the year 2005 observed by the French C-band operational Trappes radar, located near Paris. The term “integrated” means that the concentration parameter of the drop size distribution is assumed to be constant over some area and the algorithms retrieve it using the polarimetric variables in that area. The evaluation is carried out in ideal conditions (no partial beam blocking, no ground-clutter contamination, no bright band contamination, a posteriori calibration of the radar variables ZH and ZDR) using hourly rain gauges located at distances less than 60 km from the radar. Also included in the comparison, for the sake of benchmarking, is a conventional Z = 282R1.66 estimator, with and without attenuation correction and with and without adjustment by rain gauges as currently done operationally at Météo France. Under those ideal conditions, the two polarimetric algorithms, which rely solely on radar data, appear to perform as well if not better, pending on the measurements conditions (attenuation, rain rates, …), than the conventional algorithms, even when the latter take into account rain gauges through the adjustment scheme. ZZDR with attenuation correction is the best estimator for hourly rain gauge accumulations lower than 5 mm h−1 and ZPHI is the best one above that threshold. A perturbation analysis has been conducted to assess the sensitivity of the various estimators with respect to biases on ZH and ZDR, taking into account the typical accuracy and stability that can be reasonably achieved with modern operational radars these days (1 dB on ZH and 0.2 dB on ZDR). A +1 dB positive bias on ZH (radar too hot) results in a +14% overestimation of the rain rate with the conventional estimator used in this study (Z = 282R^1.66), a -19% underestimation with ZPHI and a +23% overestimation with ZZDR. Additionally, a +0.2 dB positive bias on ZDR results in a typical rain rate under- estimation of 15% by ZZDR.

Output envelope adjustment for an environmental fuzzy logic controller

A two-level fuzzy logic controller for use in air-conditioning systems is outlined in this paper. At the first level a simplified controller is produced from expert knowledge and envelope adjustment is introduced, while the second level provides a means for adapting this controller to different working spaces. The mechanism for adaption is easily implemented and can be used in real time. A series of simulations is presented to illustrate the proposed schema.

Intact automatic imitation of human and robot actions in autism spectrum disorders

The existence of a specialized imitation module in humans is hotly debated. Studies suggesting a specific imitation impairment in individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) support a modular view. However, the voluntary imitation tasks used in these studies (which require socio-cognitive abilities in addition to imitation for successful performance) cannot support claims of a specific impairment. Accordingly, an automatic imitation paradigm (a ‘cleaner’ measure of imitative ability) was used to assess the imitative ability of 16 adults with ASD and 16 non-autistic matched control participants. Participants performed a prespecified hand action in response to observed hand actions performed either by a human or a robotic hand. On compatible trials the stimulus and response actions matched, while on incompatible trials the two actions did not match. Replicating previous findings, the Control group showed an automatic imitation effect: responses on compatible trials were faster than those on incompatible trials. This effect was greater when responses were made to human than to robotic actions (‘animacy bias’). The ASD group also showed an automatic imitation effect and a larger animacy bias than the Control group. We discuss these findings with reference to the literature on imitation in ASD and theories of imitation.

The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we assess the impact of this uncertainty when calibrating a flood inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for a flood event in December 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK. The flood extent is delineated from an ERS-2 SAR image of the event using an active contour model (snake), and water levels at the flood margin calculated through intersection of the shoreline vector with LiDAR topographic data. Gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. Residuals between the satellite observed data points and those from the reference line are spatially clustered into groups of similar values. We show that model calibration achieved using pattern matching of observed and predicted flood extent is negatively influenced by this spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, model calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. To test the impact of removing spatial dependency a new method of evaluating flood inundation model performance is developed by using multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation data points. By testing for spatial dependency using Moran’s I, multiple subsamples of water elevations that have no significant spatial dependency are selected. The model is then calibrated against these data and the results averaged. This gives a near identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data, but has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Moreover, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess the effects of observational uncertainty on the assessment of flooding risk.

A new method for the determination of Holocene palaeohydrology

This paper describes a new method for the assessment of palaeohydrology through the Holocene. A palaeoclimate model was linked with a hydrological model, using a weather generator to correct bias in the rainfall estimates, to simulate the changes in the flood frequency and the groundwater response through the late Pleistocene and Holocene for the Wadi Faynan in southern Jordan, a site considered internationally important due to its rich archaeological heritage spanning the Pleistocene and Holocene. This is the first study to describe the hydrological functioning of the Wadi Faynan, a meso-scale (241 km2) semi-arid catchment, setting this description within the framework of contemporary archaeological investigations. Historic meteorological records were collated and supplemented with new hydrological and water quality data. The modelled outcomes indicate that environmental changes, such as deforestation, had a major impact on the local water cycle and this amplified the effect of the prevailing climate on the flow regime. The results also show that increased rainfall alone does not necessarily imply better conditions for farming and highlight the importance of groundwater. The discussion focuses on the utility of the method and the importance of the local hydrology to the sustained settlement of the Wadi Faynan through pre-history and history.

Does increased hydrochemical model complexity decrease robustness?

The aim of this study was, within a sensitivity analysis framework, to determine if additional model complexity gives a better capability to model the hydrology and nitrogen dynamics of a small Mediterranean forested catchment or if the additional parameters cause over-fitting. Three nitrogen-models of varying hydrological complexity were considered. For each model, general sensitivity analysis (GSA) and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) were applied, each based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The results highlighted the most complex structure as the most appropriate, providing the best representation of the non-linear patterns observed in the flow and streamwater nitrate concentrations between 1999 and 2002. Its 5% and 95% GLUE bounds, obtained considering a multi-objective approach, provide the narrowest band for streamwater nitrogen, which suggests increased model robustness, though all models exhibit periods of inconsistent good and poor fits between simulated outcomes and observed data. The results confirm the importance of the riparian zone in controlling the short-term (daily) streamwater nitrogen dynamics in this catchment but not the overall flux of nitrogen from the catchment. It was also shown that as the complexity of a hydrological model increases over-parameterisation occurs, but the converse is true for a water quality model where additional process representation leads to additional acceptable model simulations. Water quality data help constrain the hydrological representation in process-based models. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry.

Attic pottery in early Classical Thessaly. A case study from Achaia Phthiotis

This paper attributes a previously unnoticed Attic black-figured lekythos kept in the Archaeological Museum of Volos to the Pholos Group (ca. 470 BC) and discusses its findspot in the peripheral Thessalian district of Achaia Phthiotis. Beyond an art-historical appreciation of the hastily-drawn chariot scene on this lekythos and a discussion of stylistic parallels, which include a lekythos in Prague, it is argued that such lekythoi were socially important for their shape and small size that made them easily transportable. The assumed scarcity of Attic pottery in Thessaly can be questioned given that a considerable amount of Attic pottery from Thessalian locations is mentioned only in passing or remains unpublished in museum storage. Small late black-figured lekythoi predominate amongst Attic pottery shapes in Thessaly. The popularity of such lekythoi can become indicative of human mobility across the landscape and the consumption of imported (grave) goods by social groups other than elites.

The division of labour under uncertainty

Reductions in the division of labour are a significant feature of modern developments in work organisation. It has been recognised that a reduced division of labour can have the advantages of job enrichment and lower coordination costs. In this paper it is shown how advantages from a lesser division of labour can stem from the flow of work between different sets of resources where the work rates of individual production stages are subject to uncertainties. Both process and project-based work are considered. Implications for the boundaries of the firm and for innovation processes are noted.

Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

Endothelin-converting enzyme-1 degrades internalized somatostatin-14

Agonist-induced internalization of somatostatin receptors (ssts) determines subsequent cellular responsiveness to peptide agonists and influences sst receptor scintigraphy. To investigate sst2A trafficking, rat sst2A tagged with epitope was expressed in human embryonic kidney cells and tracked by antibody labeling. Confocal microscopical analysis revealed that stimulation with sst and octreotide induced internalization of sst2A. Internalized sst2A remained sequestrated within early endosomes, and 60 min after stimulation, internalized sst2A still colocalized with beta-arrestin1-enhanced green fluorescence protein (EGFP), endothelin-converting enzyme-1 (ECE-1), and rab5a. Internalized (125)I-Tyr(11)-SST-14 was rapidly hydrolyzed by endosomal endopeptidases, with radioactive metabolites being released from the cell. Internalized (125)I-Tyr(1)-octreotide accumulated as an intact peptide and was released from the cell as an intact peptide ligand. We have identified ECE-1 as one of the endopeptidases responsible for inactivation of internalized SST-14. ECE-1-mediated cleavage of SST-14 was inhibited by the specific ECE-1 inhibitor, SM-19712, and by preventing acidification of endosomes using bafilomycin A(1). ECE-1 cleaved SST-14 but not octreotide in an acidic environment. The metallopeptidases angiotensin-1 converting enzyme and ECE-2 did not hydrolyze SST-14 or octreotide. Our results show for the first time that stimulation with SST-14 and octreotide induced sequestration of sst2A into early endosomes and that endocytosed SST-14 is degraded by endopeptidases located in early endosomes. Furthermore, octreotide was not degraded by endosomal peptidases and was released as an intact peptide. This mechanism may explain functional differences between octreotide and SST-14 after sst2A stimulation. Moreover, further investigation of endopeptidase-regulated trafficking of neuropeptides may result in novel concepts of neuropeptide receptor inactivation in cancer diagnosis.