Phosphorus loss from agricultural catchments: pathways and implications for management

The contribution non-point P sources make to the total P loading on water bodies in agricultural catchments has not been fully appreciated. Using data derived from plot scale experimental studies, and modelling approaches developed to simulate system behaviour under differing management scenarios, a fuller understanding of the processes controlling P export and transformations along non-point transport pathways can be achieved. One modelling approach which has been successfully applied to large UK catchments (50-350km2 in area) is applied here to a small, 1.5 km2 experimental catchment. The importance of scaling is discussed in the context of how such approaches can extrapolate the results from plot-scale experimental studies to full catchment scale. However, the scope of such models is limited, since they do not at present directly simulate the processes controlling P transport and transformation dynamics. As such, they can only simulate total P export on an annual basis, and are not capable of prediction over shorter time scales. The need for development of process-based models to help answer these questions, and for more comprehensive UK experimental studies is highlighted as a pre-requisite for the development of suitable and sustainable management strategies to reduce non-point P loading on water bodies in agricultural catchments.

Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

Complexity theory and planning: examining 'fractals' for organising policy domains in planning practice

This article examines selected methodological insights that complexity theory might provide for planning. In particular, it focuses on the concept of fractals and, through this concept, how ways of organising policy domains across scales might have particular causal impacts. The aim of this article is therefore twofold: (a) to position complexity theory within social science through a ‘generalised discourse’, thereby orienting it to particular ontological and epistemological biases and (b) to reintroduce a comparatively new concept – fractals – from complexity theory in a way that is consistent with the ontological and epistemological biases argued for, and expand on the contribution that this might make to planning. Complexity theory is theoretically positioned as a neo-systems theory with reasons elaborated. Fractal systems from complexity theory are systems that exhibit self-similarity across scales. This concept (as previously introduced by the author in ‘Fractal spaces in planning and governance’) is further developed in this article to (a) illustrate the ontological and epistemological claims for complexity theory, and to (b) draw attention to ways of organising policy systems across scales to emphasise certain characteristics of the systems – certain distinctions. These distinctions when repeated across scales reinforce associated processes/values/end goals resulting in particular policy outcomes. Finally, empirical insights from two case studies in two different policy domains are presented and compared to illustrate the workings of fractals in planning practice.

Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

Wide ranging climate changes are expected in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century, but projections of the size of these changes vary widely across current global climate models. This variation represents a large source of uncertainty in our understanding of the evolution of Arctic climate. Here we systematically quantify and assess the model uncertainty in Arctic climate changes in two CO2 doubling experiments: a multimodel ensemble (CMIP3) and an ensemble constructed using a single model (HadCM3) with multiple parameter perturbations (THC-QUMP). These two ensembles allow us to assess the contribution that both structural and parameter variations across models make to the total uncertainty and to begin to attribute sources of uncertainty in projected changes. We find that parameter uncertainty is an major source of uncertainty in certain aspects of Arctic climate. But also that uncertainties in the mean climate state in the 20th century, most notably in the northward Atlantic ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice volume, are a significant source of uncertainty for projections of future Arctic change. We suggest that better observational constraints on these quantities will lead to significant improvements in the precision of projections of future Arctic climate change.

A model for the consolidation of rafted sea ice

Rafting is one of the important deformation mechanisms of sea ice. This process is widespread in the north Caspian Sea, where multiple rafting produces thick sea ice features, which are a hazard to offshore operations. Here we present a one-dimensional, thermal consolidation model for rafted sea ice. We consider the consolidation between the layers of both a two-layer and a three-layer section of rafted sea ice. The rafted ice is assumed to be composed of layers of sea ice of equal thickness, separated by thin layers of ocean water. Results show that the thickness of the liquid layer reduced asymptotically with time, such that there always remained a thin saline liquid layer. We propose that when the liquid layer is equal to the surface roughness the adjacent layers can be considered consolidated. Using parameters representative of the north Caspian, the Arctic, and the Antarctic, our results show that for a choice of standard parameters it took under 15 h for two layers of rafted sea ice to consolidate. Sensitivity studies showed that the consolidation model is highly sensitive to the initial thickness of the liquid layer, the fraction of salt release during freezing, and the height of the surface asperities. We believe that further investigation of these parameters is needed before any concrete conclusions can be drawn about rate of consolidation of rafted sea ice features.

Dependence of sea ice yield-curve shape on ice thickness

In this note, the authors discuss the contribution that frictional sliding of ice floes (or floe aggregates) past each other and pressure ridging make to the plastic yield curve of sea ice. Using results from a previous study that explicitly modeled the amount of sliding and ridging that occurs for a given global strain rate, it is noted that the relative contribution of sliding and ridging to ice stress depends upon ice thickness. The implication is that the shape and size of the plastic yield curve is dependent upon ice thickness. The yield-curve shape dependence is in addition to plastic hardening/weakening that relates the size of the yield curve to ice thickness. In most sea ice dynamics models the yield-curve shape is taken to be independent of ice thickness. The authors show that the change of the yield curve due to a change in the ice thickness can be taken into account by a weighted sum of two thickness-independent rheologies describing ridging and sliding effects separately. It would be straightforward to implement the thickness-dependent yield-curve shape described here into sea ice models used for global or regional ice prediction.

Shops, stalls, stores: pre-consumption deposits and centrally organised distribution in Antonine Britain

Michael Fulford writes: Recent research is shedding more light on how certain goods, particularly durable materials like pottery, were distributed in the Western provinces of the Roman Empire and on the steps which connected producer with consumer.15 This paper develops the theme further by exploring the contribution to the debate of three British sites with Antonine assemblages of unused pottery and other goods. While interest has previously focused on the samian because of the contribution that it can make to dating, this paper considers the implications of the assemblages as a whole.

Temperature regulation of extracellular proteases in ectomycorrhizal fungi (Hebeloma spp.) grown in axenic culture

Strains of Hebeloma representative of different climatic zones were grown in axenic culture at either 2 °C and 22° or 6° and 22°. Culture filtrates were assayed for proteolytic activity using FITC labelled BSA as a substrate. Assays were run between 0–37°. Growth at low temperature induced greater proteolytic activity (g−1 D.W. mycelium). Many of the strains produced protease(s) which retained significant activity at temperatures as low as 0°, and a thermal optimum between 0–6° with a second optimum at higher temperature. The results are discussed in relation the nutrient acquisition potential of ectomycorrhizal fungi at low temperature and the contribution such cold active proteases might make to the soil enzyme pool.

Balkanisation of banking damages international trade and UK GDP

Balkanisation is a way to describe the breakdown of cross-border banking, as nervous lenders retreat in particular from the more troubled parts of the Eurozone or at least try to isolate operations within national boundaries. It is increasing at the Bank level, however the senior policy makers consider this a negative trend – Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, has talked of the need to “repair this financial fragmentation” and Mark Carney, head of global regulatory body the Financial Stability Board, [and now Governor of the Bank of England] has warned that deglobalising finance will hurt growth and jobs by “reducing financial capacity and systemic resilience”. In this article I would like to examine the impact of banking balkanisation on international trade and provide some initial thoughts about remedies for excessive risk in a banking non-balkanising world.

Monuments, mobility and Medieval perceptions of designed landscapes: The Pleasance, Kenilworth

The Pleasance was a ’virandarium’ or pleasure garden, constructed by Henry V in the grounds of his castle at Kenilworth. Despite its high academic profile and the survival of well-preserved earthwork remains, the Pleasance has never previously been subjected to a programme of detailed archaeological survey and investigation. This article discusses the results of a new analytical earthwork survey undertaken by staff from English Heritage in 2012. It considers the contribution that these new findings make to the wider debate on medieval designed landscapes, with a particular focus on mobility and its role in unlocking the meaning and symbolism embedded in elite landscapes.

An ontological approach to competency management

Competency management is a very important part of a well-functioning organisation. Unfortunately competency descriptions are not uniformly specified nor defined across borders: National, sectorial or organisational, leading to an opaque competency description market with a multitude of competency frameworks and competency benchmarks. An ontology is a formalised description of a domain, which enables automated reasoning engines to be built which by utilising the interrelations between entities can make “intelligent” choices in different situations within the domain. Introducing formalised competency ontologies automated tools, such as skill gap analysis, training suggestion generation, job search and recruitment, can be developed, which compare and contrast different competency descriptions on the semantic level. The major problem with defining a common formalised ontology for competencies is that there are so many viewpoints of competencies and competency frameworks. Work within the TRACE project has focused on finding common trends within different competency frameworks in order to allow an intermediate competency description to be made, which other frameworks can reference. This research has shown that competencies can be divided up into “knowledge”, “skills” and what we call “others”. An ontology has been created based on this with a simple structure of different “kinds” of “knowledges” and “skills” using semantic interrelations to define the basic semantic structure of the ontology. A prototype tool for analysing a skill gap analysis has been developed. Personal profiles can be produced using the tool and a skill gap analysis is performed on a desired competency profile by using an ontologically based inference engine, which is able to list closest fit and possible proficiency gaps

A high-order arbitrarily unstructured finite-volume model of the global atmosphere: tests solving the shallow-water equations

Simulations of the global atmosphere for weather and climate forecasting require fast and accurate solutions and so operational models use high-order finite differences on regular structured grids. This precludes the use of local refinement; techniques allowing local refinement are either expensive (eg. high-order finite element techniques) or have reduced accuracy at changes in resolution (eg. unstructured finite-volume with linear differencing). We present solutions of the shallow-water equations for westerly flow over a mid-latitude mountain from a finite-volume model written using OpenFOAM. A second/third-order accurate differencing scheme is applied on arbitrarily unstructured meshes made up of various shapes and refinement patterns. The results are as accurate as equivalent resolution spectral methods. Using lower order differencing reduces accuracy at a refinement pattern which allows errors from refinement of the mountain to accumulate and reduces the global accuracy over a 15 day simulation. We have therefore introduced a scheme which fits a 2D cubic polynomial approximately on a stencil around each cell. Using this scheme means that refinement of the mountain improves the accuracy after a 15 day simulation. This is a more severe test of local mesh refinement for global simulations than has been presented but a realistic test if these techniques are to be used operationally. These efficient, high-order schemes may make it possible for local mesh refinement to be used by weather and climate forecast models.

Characterising errors in airborne laser altimetry data to extract soil roughness

Airborne laser altimetry has the potential to make frequent detailed observations that are important for many aspects of studying land surface processes. However, the uncertainties inherent in airborne laser altimetry data have rarely been well measured. Uncertainty is often specified as generally as 20cm in elevation, and 40cm planimetric. To better constrain these uncertainties, we present an analysis of several datasets acquired specifically to study the temporal consistency of laser altimetry data, and thus assess its operational value. The error budget has three main components, each with a time regime. For measurements acquired less than 50ms apart, elevations have a local standard deviation in height of 3.5cm, enabling the local measurement of surface roughness of the order of 5cm. Points acquired seconds apart acquire an additional random error due to Differential Geographic Positioning System (DGPS) fluctuation. Measurements made up to an hour apart show an elevation drift of 7cm over a half hour. Over months, this drift gives rise to a random elevation offset between swathes, with an average of 6.4cm. The RMS planimetric error in point location was derived as 37.4cm. We conclude by considering the consequences of these uncertainties on the principle application of laser altimetry in the UK, intertidal zone monitoring.