North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5-10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970-1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061 +/- 0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models' inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

Decision-making in a phase II clinical trial: a new approach combining Bayesian and frequentist concepts

The aim of a phase H clinical trial is to decide whether or not to develop an experimental therapy further through phase III clinical evaluation. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to the phase H trial, although we assume that subsequent phase III clinical trials will hat,e standard frequentist analyses. The decision whether to conduct the phase III trial is based on the posterior predictive probability of a significant result being obtained. This fusion of Bayesian and frequentist techniques accepts the current paradigm for expressing objective evidence of therapeutic value, while optimizing the form of the phase II investigation that leads to it. By using prior information, we can assess whether a phase II study is needed at all, and how much or what sort of evidence is required. The proposed approach is illustrated by the design of a phase II clinical trial of a multi-drug resistance modulator used in combination with standard chemotherapy in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reaction of silylene with oxygen

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with O-2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second order rate constants at 10 Torr were fitted to the Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-11.08 +/- 0.04) + (1.57 +/- 0.32 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln10 The decrease in rate constant values with increasing temperature, although systematic is very small. The rate constants showed slight increases in value with pressure at each temperature, but this was scarcely beyond experimental uncertainty. From estimates of Lennard-Jones collision rates, this reaction is occurring at ca. 1 in 20 collisions, almost independent of pressure and temperature. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level backed further by multi-configurational (MC) SCF calculations, augmented by second order perturbation theory (MRMP2), support a mechanism in which the initial adduct, H2SiOO, formed in the triplet state (T), undergoes intersystem crossing to the more stable singlet state (S) prior to further low energy isomerisation processes leading, via a sequence of steps, ultimately to dissociation products of which the lowest energy pair are H2O + SiO. The decomposition of the intermediate cyclo-siladioxirane, via O-O bond fission, plays an important role in the overall process. The bottleneck for the overall process appears to be the T -> S process in H2SiOO. This process has a small spin orbit coupling matrix element, consistent with an estimate of its rate constant of 1 x 10(9) s(-1) obtained with the aid of RRKM theory. This interpretation preserves the idea that, as in its reactions in general, SiH2 initially reacts at the encounter rate with O-2. The low values for the secondary reaction barriers on the potential energy surface account for the lack of an observed pressure dependence. Some comparisons are drawn with the reactions of CH2 + O-2 and SiCl2 + O-2.

Wormlike micelle formation and flow alignment of a pluronic block copolymer in aqueous solution

The self-assembly into wormlike micelles of a poly(ethylene oxide)-b-poly(propylene oxide)-b-poly(ethylene oxide) triblock copolymer Pluronic P84 in aqueous salt solution (2 M NaCl) has been studied by rheology, small-angle X-ray and neutron scattering (SAXS/SANS), and light scattering. Measurements of the flow curves by controlled stress rheometry indicated phase separation under flow. SAXS on solutions subjected to capillary flow showed alignment of micelles at intermediate shear rates, although loss of alignment was observed for high shear rates. For dilute solutions, SAXS and static light scattering data on unaligned samples could be superposed over three decades in scattering vector, providing unique information on the wormlike micelle structure over several length scales. SANS data provided information on even shorter length scales, in particular, concerning "blob" scattering from the micelle corona. The data could be modeled based on a system of semiflexible self-avoiding cylinders with a circular cross-section, as described by the wormlike chain model with excluded volume interactions. The micelle structure was compared at two temperatures close to the cloud point (47 degrees C). The micellar radius was found not to vary with temperature in this region, although the contour length increased with increasing temperature, whereas the Kuhn length decreased. These variations result in an increase of the low-concentration radius of gyration with increasing temperature. This was consistent with dynamic light scattering results, and, applying theoretical results from the literature, this is in agreement with an increase in endcap energy due to changes in hydration of the poly(ethylene oxide) blocks as the temperature is increased.

A SAXS study of flow alignment of thermotropic liquid crystal mixtures

We report on the capillary flow behaviour of thermotropic liquid crystal mixtures containing 4-n-octyl-4'-cyanobiphenyl (8CB) and 4-n-pentyl-4'-cyanobiphenyl (5CB). The liquid crystal mixtures are studied in the Nematic (N) and Smectic (SA) phases at room temperature. Polarised optical microscopy (POM), rheology and simultaneous X-ray diffraction (XRD)/capillary flow experiments are performed to characterise the system. Polarised optical microscopy reveals a dramatic change in optical texture when the 5CB content is increased from 20 to 30% in the mixtures. X-ray diffraction results show that the system goes through a SA-N phase transition, such that the mixtures are smectic for 10-20% 5CB and nematic for 30-90% 5CB. Smectic mixtures flow with the layers aligned along the flow direction (mesogens perpendicular to flow) while nematic mixtures flow with the mesogens aligned in the flow direction. Simultaneous XRD/shear flow experiments show that the SA-N transition is independent of the flow rate in the range 1-6 ml min-1. The correlation length of the liquid crystal order decreases with increasing 5CB content. Rheology is used to prove that the correlation length behaviour is related to a reduction in the viscosity of the mixture.

Orientational ordering in the nematic phase of a polyethylene glycol-peptide conjugate in aqueous solution

The orientational ordering of the nematic phase of a polyethylene glycol (PEG)-peptide block copolymer in aqueous solution is probed by small-angle neutron scattering (SANS), with the sample subjected to steady shear in a Couette cell. The PEG-peptide conjugate forms fibrils that behave as semiflexible rodlike chains. The orientational order parameters (P) over bar (2) and (P) over bar (4) are obtained by modeling the data using a series expansion approach to the form factor of uniform cylinders. The method used is independent of assumptions on the form of the singlet orientational distribution function. Good agreement with the anisotropic two-dimensional SANS patterns is obtained. The results show shear alignment starting at very low shear rates, and the orientational order parameters reach a plateau at higher shear rates with a pseudologarithmic dependence on shear rate. The most probable distribution functions correspond to fibrils parallel to the flow direction under shear, but a sample at rest shows a bimodal distribution with some of the rodlike peptide fibrils oriented perpendicular to the flow direction.

Determination of digesta flow entering the omasal canal of dairy cows using different marker systems

Four studies were conducted to compare the effect of four indigestible markers (LiCoEDTA, Yb-acetate, Cr-mordanted straw and indigestible neutral-detergent fibre (INDF)) and three marker systems on the flow of digesta entering the omasal canal of lactating dairy cows. Samples of digesta aspirated from the omasal canal were pooled and separated using filtration and high-speed centrifugation into three fractions defined as the liquid phase, small particulate and large particulate matter. Co was primarily associated with the liquid phase, Yb was concentrated in small particulate matter, whilst Cr and INDF were associated with large particles. Digesta flow was calculated based on single markers or using the reconstitution system based on combinations of two (Co + Yb, Co + Cr and Co + INDF) or three markers (Co + Yb + Cr and Co + Yb + INDF). Use of single markers resulted in large differences between estimates of organic matter (OM) flow entering the omasal canal suggesting that samples were not representative of true digesta. Digesta appeared to consist of at least three phases that tended to separate during sampling. OM was concentrated in particulate matter, whilst the liquid phase consisted mainly of volatile fatty acids and inorganic matter. Yb was intimately associated with nitrogenous compounds, whereas Cr and INDF were concentrated in fibrous material. Current data indicated that marker systems based on Yb in combination with Cr or INDF are required for the accurate determination of OM, N and neutral-detergent fibre flow. In cases where the flow of water-soluble nutrients entering the omasal canal is also required, the marker system should also include Co.

A hybridised evolutionary algorithm for multi-criterion minimum spanning tree problems

A hybridised and Knowledge-based Evolutionary Algorithm (KEA) is applied to the multi-criterion minimum spanning tree problems. Hybridisation is used across its three phases. In the first phase a deterministic single objective optimization algorithm finds the extreme points of the Pareto front. In the second phase a K-best approach finds the first neighbours of the extreme points, which serve as an elitist parent population to an evolutionary algorithm in the third phase. A knowledge-based mutation operator is applied in each generation to reproduce individuals that are at least as good as the unique parent. The advantages of KEA over previous algorithms include its speed (making it applicable to large real-world problems), its scalability to more than two criteria, and its ability to find both the supported and unsupported optimal solutions.

Self-assembly of an amyloid peptide fragment–PEG conjugate: lyotropic phase formation and influence of PEG crystallization

The self-assembly of PEGylated peptides containing a modified sequence from the amyloid beta peptide, YYKLVFF, has been studied in aqueous solution. Two PEG molar masses, PEG1k and PEG3k, were used in the conjugates. It is shown that both YYKLVFF–PEG hybrids form fibrils comprising a peptide core and a PEG corona. The fibrils are much longer for YYKLVFF–PEG1k, pointing to an influence of PEG chain length. The beta-sheet secondary structure of the peptide is retained in the conjugate. Lyotropic liquid crystal phases, specifically nematic and hexagonal columnar phases, are formed at sufficiently high concentration. Flow alignment of these mesophases was investigated by small-angle neutron scattering with in situ steady shearing in a Couette cell. On drying, PEG crystallization occurs leading to characteristic peaks in the X-ray diffraction pattern, and to lamellar structures imaged by atomic force microscopy. The X-ray diffraction pattern retains features of the cross-beta pattern from the beta-sheet structure, showing that this is not disrupted by PEG crystallization.

Structure of single-wall peptide nanotubes: in situ flow aligning X-ray diffraction

The structure of single wall peptide nanotubes is presented for the model surfactant-like peptide A6K. Capillary flow alignment of a sample in the nematic phase at high concentration in water leads to oriented X-ray diffraction patterns. Analysis of these, accompanied by molecular dynamics simulations, suggests the favourable self-assembly of antiparallel peptide dimers into beta-sheet ribbons that wrap helically to form the nanotube wall.

Small-angle x-ray scattering study of flow alignment of a thermotropic liquid crystal in the nematic and smectic phases

WThe capillary flow alignment of the thermotropic liquid crystal 4-n-octyl-4′-cyanobiphenyl in the nematic and smectic phases is investigated using time-resolved synchrotron small-angle x-ray scattering. Samples were cooled from the isotropic phase to erase prior orientation. Upon cooling through the nematic phase under Poiseuille flow in a circular capillary, a transition from the alignment of mesogens along the flow direction to the alignment of layers along the flow direction (mesogens perpendicular to flow) appears to occur continuously at the cooling rate applied. The transition is centered on a temperature at which the Leslie viscosity coefficient α3 changes sign. The configuration with layers aligned along the flow direction is also observed in the smectic phase. The transition in the nematic phase on cooling has previously been ascribed to an aligning-nonaligning or tumbling transition. At high flow rates there is evidence for tumbling around an average alignment of layers along the flow direction. At lower flow rates this orientation is more clearly defined. The layer alignment is ascribed to surface-induced ordering propagating into the bulk of the capillary, an observation supported by the parallel alignment of layers observed for a static sample at low temperatures in the nematic phase.

Gas-phase reactions of NO3 and N2O5 with (Z)-hex-4-en-1-ol, (Z)-hex-3-en-1-ol ('leaf alcohol'), (E)-hex-3-en-1-ol, (Z)-hex-2-en-1-ol and (E)-hex-2-en-1-ol

The night-time atmospheric chemistry of the biogenic volatile organic compounds (Z)-hex-4-en-1-ol, (Z)-hex-3-en-1-ol ('leaf alcohol'), (E)-hex-3-en-1-ol, (Z)-hex-2-en-1-ol and (E)-hex-2-en-1-ol, has been studied at room temperature. Rate coefficients for reactions of the nitrate radical (NO3) with these stress-induced plant emissions were measured using the discharge-flow technique. We employed off-axis continuous-wave cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy (CEAS) for the detection of NO3, which enabled us to work in excess of the hexenol compounds over NO3. The rate coefficients determined were (2.93 +/- 0.58) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), (2.67 +/- 0.42) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), (4.43 +/- 0.91) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), (1.56 +/- 0.24) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), and (1.30 +/- 0.24) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for (Z)-hex-4-en-1-ol, (Z)-hex-3en-1-ol, (E)-hex-3-en-1-ol, (Z)-hex-2-en-1-ol and (E)-hex-2-en-1-ol. The rate coefficient for the reaction of NO3 with (Z)-hex-3-en-1-ol agrees with the single published determination of the rate coefficient using a relative method. The other rate coefficients have not been measured before and are compared to estimated values. Relative-rate studies were also performed, but required modification of the standard technique because N2O5 (used as the source of NO3) itself reacts with the hexenols. We used varying excesses of NO2 to determine simultaneously rate coefficients for reactions of NO3 and N2O5 with (E)-hex-3-en-1-ol of (5.2 +/- 1.8) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and (3.1 +/- 2.3) x 10(-18) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). Our new determinations suggest atmospheric lifetimes with respect to NO3-initiated oxidation of roughly 1-4 h for the hexenols, comparable with lifetimes estimated for the atmospheric degradation by OH and shorter lifetimes than for attack by O-3. Recent measurements of [N2O5] suggest that the gas-phase reactions of N2O5 with unsaturated alcohols will not be of importance under usual atmospheric conditions, but they certainly can be in laboratory systems when determining rate coefficients.

The automatic layout model in the sequencing of construction activities of multi-objective diaphragm wall unit by using self-learning neural network

Foundation construction process has been an important key point in a successful construction engineering. The frequency of using diaphragm wall construction method among many deep excavation construction methods in Taiwan is the highest in the world. The traditional view of managing diaphragm wall unit in the sequencing of construction activities is to establish each phase of the sequencing of construction activities by heuristics. However, it conflicts final phase of engineering construction with unit construction and effects planning construction time. In order to avoid this kind of situation, we use management of science in the study of diaphragm wall unit construction to formulate multi-objective combinational optimization problem. Because the characteristic (belong to NP-Complete problem) of problem mathematic model is multi-objective and combining explosive, it is advised that using the 2-type Self-Learning Neural Network (SLNN) to solve the N=12, 24, 36 of diaphragm wall unit in the sequencing of construction activities program problem. In order to compare the liability of the results, this study will use random researching method in comparison with the SLNN. It is found that the testing result of SLNN is superior to random researching method in whether solution-quality or Solving-efficiency.