55 resultados para MCMC sampling
Resumo:
The goal of the review is to provide a state-of-the-art survey on sampling and probe methods for the solution of inverse problems. Further, a configuration approach to some of the problems will be presented. We study the concepts and analytical results for several recent sampling and probe methods. We will give an introduction to the basic idea behind each method using a simple model problem and then provide some general formulation in terms of particular configurations to study the range of the arguments which are used to set up the method. This provides a novel way to present the algorithms and the analytic arguments for their investigation in a variety of different settings. In detail we investigate the probe method (Ikehata), linear sampling method (Colton-Kirsch) and the factorization method (Kirsch), singular sources Method (Potthast), no response test (Luke-Potthast), range test (Kusiak, Potthast and Sylvester) and the enclosure method (Ikehata) for the solution of inverse acoustic and electromagnetic scattering problems. The main ideas, approaches and convergence results of the methods are presented. For each method, we provide a historical survey about applications to different situations.
Resumo:
The steadily accumulating literature on technical efficiency in fisheries attests to the importance of efficiency as an indicator of fleet condition and as an object of management concern. In this paper, we extend previous work by presenting a Bayesian hierarchical approach that yields both efficiency estimates and, as a byproduct of the estimation algorithm, probabilistic rankings of the relative technical efficiencies of fishing boats. The estimation algorithm is based on recent advances in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods—Gibbs sampling, in particular—which have not been widely used in fisheries economics. We apply the method to a sample of 10,865 boat trips in the US Pacific hake (or whiting) fishery during 1987–2003. We uncover systematic differences between efficiency rankings based on sample mean efficiency estimates and those that exploit the full posterior distributions of boat efficiencies to estimate the probability that a given boat has the highest true mean efficiency.
Resumo:
The soil fauna is often a neglected group in many large-scale studies of farmland biodiversity due to difficulties in extracting organisms efficiently from the soil. This study assesses the relative efficiency of the simple and cheap sampling method of handsorting against Berlese-Tullgren funnel and Winkler apparatus extraction. Soil cores were taken from grassy arable field margins and wheat fields in Cambridgeshire, UK, and the efficiencies of the three methods in assessing the abundances and species densities of soil macroinver-tebrates were compared. Handsorting in most cases was as efficient at extracting the majority of the soil macrofauna as the Berlese-Tullgren funnel and Winkler bag methods, although it underestimated the species densities of the woodlice and adult beetles. There were no obvious biases among the three methods for the particular vegetation types sampled and no significant differences in the size distributions of the earthworms and beetles. Proportionally fewer damaged earthworms were recorded in larger (25 x 25 cm) soil cores when compared with smaller ones (15 x 15 cm). Handsorting has many benefits, including targeted extraction, minimum disturbance to the habitat and shorter sampling periods and may be the most appropriate method for studies of farmland biodiversity when a high number of soil cores need to be sampled. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The jackknife method is often used for variance estimation in sample surveys but has only been developed for a limited class of sampling designs.We propose a jackknife variance estimator which is defined for any without-replacement unequal probability sampling design. We demonstrate design consistency of this estimator for a broad class of point estimators. A Monte Carlo study shows how the proposed estimator may improve on existing estimators.
Resumo:
It is common practice to design a survey with a large number of strata. However, in this case the usual techniques for variance estimation can be inaccurate. This paper proposes a variance estimator for estimators of totals. The method proposed can be implemented with standard statistical packages without any specific programming, as it involves simple techniques of estimation, such as regression fitting.
Resumo:
The systematic sampling (SYS) design (Madow and Madow, 1944) is widely used by statistical offices due to its simplicity and efficiency (e.g., Iachan, 1982). But it suffers from a serious defect, namely, that it is impossible to unbiasedly estimate the sampling variance (Iachan, 1982) and usual variance estimators (Yates and Grundy, 1953) are inadequate and can overestimate the variance significantly (Särndal et al., 1992). We propose a novel variance estimator which is less biased and that can be implemented with any given population order. We will justify this estimator theoretically and with a Monte Carlo simulation study.
Resumo:
We show that the Hájek (Ann. Math Statist. (1964) 1491) variance estimator can be used to estimate the variance of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator when the Chao sampling scheme (Chao, Biometrika 69 (1982) 653) is implemented. This estimator is simple and can be implemented with any statistical packages. We consider a numerical and an analytic method to show that this estimator can be used. A series of simulations supports our findings.
Resumo:
Stephens and Donnelly have introduced a simple yet powerful importance sampling scheme for computing the likelihood in population genetic models. Fundamental to the method is an approximation to the conditional probability of the allelic type of an additional gene, given those currently in the sample. As noted by Li and Stephens, the product of these conditional probabilities for a sequence of draws that gives the frequency of allelic types in a sample is an approximation to the likelihood, and can be used directly in inference. The aim of this note is to demonstrate the high level of accuracy of "product of approximate conditionals" (PAC) likelihood when used with microsatellite data. Results obtained on simulated microsatellite data show that this strategy leads to a negligible bias over a wide range of the scaled mutation parameter theta. Furthermore, the sampling variance of likelihood estimates as well as the computation time are lower than that obtained with importance sampling on the whole range of theta. It follows that this approach represents an efficient substitute to IS algorithms in computer intensive (e.g. MCMC) inference methods in population genetics. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Imputation is commonly used to compensate for item non-response in sample surveys. If we treat the imputed values as if they are true values, and then compute the variance estimates by using standard methods, such as the jackknife, we can seriously underestimate the true variances. We propose a modified jackknife variance estimator which is defined for any without-replacement unequal probability sampling design in the presence of imputation and non-negligible sampling fraction. Mean, ratio and random-imputation methods will be considered. The practical advantage of the method proposed is its breadth of applicability.
Resumo:
The evolutionary history of gains and losses of vegetative reproductive propagules (soredia) in Porpidia s.l., a group of lichen-forming ascomycetes, was clarified using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches to monophyly tests and a combined MCMC and maximum likelihood approach to ancestral character state reconstructions. The MCMC framework provided confidence estimates for the reconstructions of relationships and ancestral character states, which formed the basis for tests of evolutionary hypotheses. Monophyly tests rejected all hypotheses that predicted any clustering of reproductive modes in extant taxa. In addition, a nearest-neighbor statistic could not reject the hypothesis that the vegetative reproductive mode is randomly distributed throughout the group. These results show that transitions between presence and absence of the vegetative reproductive mode within Porpidia s.l. occurred several times and independently of each other. Likelihood reconstructions of ancestral character states at selected nodes suggest that - contrary to previous thought - the ancestor to Porpidia s.l. already possessed the vegetative reproductive mode. Furthermore, transition rates are reconstructed asymmetrically with the vegetative reproductive mode being gained at a much lower rate than it is lost. A cautious note has to be added, because a simulation study showed that the ancestral character state reconstructions were highly dependent on taxon sampling. However, our central conclusions, particularly the higher rate of change from vegetative reproductive mode present to absent than vice versa within Porpidia s.l., were found to be broadly independent of taxon sampling. [Ancestral character state reconstructions; Ascomycota, Bayesian inference; hypothesis testing; likelihood; MCMC; Porpidia; reproductive systems]