Interhemispheric dynamics of the African rainbelt during the late Quaternary

The spatial pattern of precipitation variability in tropical and subtropical Africa over the late Quaternary has long been debated. Prevailing hypotheses variously infer (1) insolation-controlled asymmetry of wet phases between hemispheres, (2) symmetric contraction and expansion of the tropical rainbelt, and (3) independent control on moisture available in Southern Africa via sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean. In this study we use climate-model simulations covering the last glacial cycle (120 kyr) with HadCM3 and the multi-model ensembles from PMIP3 (the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project) to investigate the long-term behaviour of the African rainbelt, and test these simulations against existing empirical palaeohydrological records. Through regional model-data comparisons we find evidence for the validity of several hypotheses, with various proposed processes occurring concurrently but with different regional emphasis (e.g. asymmetric shifts at the seasonal extremes and symmetric expansions/ contractions towards West equatorial regions). Crucially, variations in rainfall are associated with multiple forcing mechanisms that vary in their dominance both spatially and temporally over the glacial cycle; an important consideration when interpreting and extrapolating from often relatively short palaeoenvironmental records.

Robustness despite uncertainty: regional climate data reveal the dominant role of humans in explaining global extinctions of Late Quaternary megafauna

Debate over the late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions has focussed on whether human colonisation or climatic changes were more important drivers of extinction, with few extinctions being unambiguously attributable to either. Most analyses have been geographically or taxonomically restricted and the few quantitative global analyses have been limited by coarse temporal resolution or overly simplified climate reconstructions or proxies. We present a global analysis of the causes of these extinctions which uses high-resolution climate reconstructions and explicitly investigates the sensitivity of our results to uncertainty in the palaeological record. Our results show that human colonisation was the dominant driver of megafaunal extinction across the world but that climatic factors were also important. We identify the geographic regions where future research is likely to have the most impact, with our models reliably predicting extinctions across most of the world, with the notable exception of mainland Asia where we fail to explain the apparently low rate of extinction found in in the fossil record. Our results are highly robust to uncertainties in the palaeological record, and our main conclusions are unlikely to change qualitatively following minor improvements or changes in the dates of extinctions and human colonisation.

Late Quaternary environmental change in the interior South American tropics: new insight from leaf wax stable isotopes

Stable isotope analysis of leaf waxes in a sediment core from Laguna La Gaiba, a shallow lake located at the Bolivian margin of the Pantanal wetlands, provides new perspective on vegetation and climate change in the lowland interior tropics of South America over the past 40,000 years. The carbon isotopic compositions (δ13C) of long-chain n-alkanes reveal large shifts between C3-and C4-dominated vegetation communities since the last glacial period, consistent with landscape reconstructions generated with pollen data from the same sediment core. Leaf wax δ13C values during the last glacial period reflect an open landscape composed of C4grasses and C3herbs from 41–20ka. A peak in C4abundance during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21ka) suggests drier or more seasonal conditions relative to the earlier glacial period, while the development of a C3-dominated forest community after 20 ka points to increased humidity during the last deglaciation. Within the Holocene, large changes in the abundance of C4 vegetation indicate a transition from drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene to wetter conditions in the late Holocene coincident with increasing austral summer insolation. Strong negative correlations between leaf wax δ13C and δD values over the entire record indicate that the majority of variability in leaf wax δD at this site can be explained by variability in the magnitude of biosynthetic fractionation by different vegetation types rather than changes in meteoric water δD signatures. However, positive δD deviations from the observed δ13C–δD trends are consistent with more enriched source water and drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene and LGM. Overall, our record adds to evidence of varying influence of glacial boundary conditions and orbital forcing on South American Summer Monsoon precipitation in different regions of the South American tropics. Moreover, the relationships between leaf wax stable isotopes and pollen data observed at this site underscore the complementary nature of pollen and leaf wax δ13C data for reconstructing past vegetation changes and the potentially large effects of such changes on leaf wax δD signatures.

Abrasion control on dune colour: Muleshoe Dunes, SW USA

The Muleshoe Dunes, an east-west trending dunefield on the border separating Texas and New Mexico, consist of two distinct components: a white (carbonate rich) component and an overlying pink (quartz rich) component. The pink component exhibits significant spatial variation in redness. The reddest sands, in the western part of the dunefield, decrease in redness towards the east. This gradient is thought to result from abrasion of all iron-rich, red clay coating as the sediments were transported eastward by Late Quaternary aeolian processes. The effects of aeolian abrasion on the spectral signature and surface texture of the sediments were examined using laboratory abrasion experiments. Changes in spectral reflectance of abrasion samples from the laboratory were compared to field samples that were abraded naturally because of sediment transport. The changes resulting from increased time of abrasion are similar to those observed with increased distance downwind in the dunefield. These results suggest that downwind abrasion can explain the pattern of dune colour in the Muleshoe Dunes, although this does not preclude other possible causes. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abrasion control on dune colour: Muleshoe Dunes, SW USA

The Muleshoe Dunes, an east-west trending dunefield on the border separating Texas and New Mexico, consist of two distinct components: a white (carbonate rich) component and an overlying pink (quartz rich) component. The pink component exhibits significant spatial variation in redness. The reddest sands, in the western part of the dunefield, decrease in redness towards the east. This gradient is thought to result from abrasion of all iron-rich, red clay coating as the sediments were transported eastward by Late Quaternary aeolian processes. The effects of aeolian abrasion on the spectral signature and surface texture of the sediments were examined using laboratory abrasion experiments. Changes in spectral reflectance of abrasion samples from the laboratory were compared to field samples that were abraded naturally because of sediment transport. The changes resulting from increased time of abrasion are similar to those observed with increased distance downwind in the dunefield. These results suggest that downwind abrasion can explain the pattern of dune colour in the Muleshoe Dunes, although this does not preclude other possible causes. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ultra-distal tephra deposits from super-eruptions: examples from Toba, Indonesia and Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Voluminous rhyolitic eruptions from Toba, Indonesia, and Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ), New Zealand, have dispersed volcanic ash over vast areas in the late Quaternary. The ~74 ka Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT) eruption deposited ash over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian subcontinent to the west. The ~340 ka Whakamaru eruption (TVZ) deposited the widespread Rangitawa Tephra, dominantly to the southeast (in addition to occurrences northwest of vent), extending across the landmass of New Zealand, and the South Pacific Ocean and Tasman Sea, with distal terrestrial exposures on the Chatham Islands. These super-eruptions involved ~2500 km^3 and ~1500 km3 of magma (dense-rock equivalent; DRE), respectively. Ultra-distal terrestrial exposures of YTT at two localities in India, Middle Son Valley, Madhya Pradesh, and Jurreru River Valley, Andhra Pradesh, at distances of >2000 km from the source caldera, show a basal ‘primary’ ashfall unit ~4 cm thick, although deposits containing reworked ash are up to ~3 m in total thickness. Exposures of Rangitawa Tephra on the Chatham Islands, >900 km from the source caldera, are ~15-30 cm thick. At more proximal localities (~200 km from source), Rangitawa Tephra is ~55-70 cm thick and characterized by a crystal-rich basal layer and normal grading. Both distal tephra deposits are characterized by very-fine ash (with high PM10 fractions) and are crystal-poor. Glass chemistry, stratigraphy and grain-size data for these distal tephra deposits are presented with comparisons of their correlation, dispersal and preservation. Using field observations, ash transport and deposition were modeled for both eruptions using a semi-analytical model (HAZMAP), with assumptions concerning average wind direction and strength during eruption, column shape and vent size. Model outputs provide new insights into eruption dynamics and better estimates of eruption volumes associ- ated with tephra fallout. Modeling based on observed YTT distal tephra thicknesses indicate a relatively low (<40 km high), very turbulent eruption column, consistent with deposition from a co-ignimbrite cloud extending over a broad region. Similarly, the Whakamaru eruption was modeled as producing a predominantly Plinian column (~45 km high), with dispersal to the southeast by strong prevailing winds. Significant ash fallout of the main dispersal direction, to the northwest of source, cannot be replicated in this modeling. The widespread dispersal of large volumes of fine ash from both eruptions may have had global environmental consequences, acutely affecting areas up to thousands of kilometers from vent.

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance.

Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: a new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration

Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database is now available for regional fire history reconstructions, data exploration, hypothesis testing, and evaluation of coupled climate–vegetation–fire model simulations. The charcoal database contains over 400 radiocarbon-dated records that document changes in charcoal abundance during the Late Quaternary. The aim of this public database is to stimulate cross-disciplinary research in fire sciences targeted at an increased understanding of the controls and impacts of natural and anthropogenic fire regimes on centennial-to-orbital timescales. We describe here the data standardization techniques for comparing multiple types of sedimentary charcoal records. Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database has been used to characterize global and regional patterns in fire activity since the last glacial maximum. Recent studies using the charcoal database have explored the relation between climate and fire during periods of rapid climate change, including evidence of fire activity during the Younger Dryas Chronozone, and during the past two millennia.

Ecosystem effects of CO2 concentration: evidence from past climates

Atmospheric CO2 concentration has varied from minima of 170-200 ppm in glacials to maxima of 280-300 ppm in the recent interglacials. Photosynthesis by C-3 plants is highly sensitive to CO2 concentration variations in this range. Physiological consequences of the CO2 changes should therefore be discernible in palaeodata. Several lines of evidence support this expectation. Reduced terrestrial carbon storage during glacials, indicated by the shift in stable isotope composition of dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean, cannot be explained by climate or sea-level changes. It is however consistent with predictions of current process-based models that propagate known physiological CO2 effects into net primary production at the ecosystem scale. Restricted forest cover during glacial periods, indicated by pollen assemblages dominated by non-arboreal taxa, cannot be reproduced accurately by palaeoclimate models unless CO2 effects on C-3-C-4 plant competition are also modelled. It follows that methods to reconstruct climate from palaeodata should account for CO2 concentration changes. When they do so, they yield results more consistent with palaeoclimate models. In conclusion, the palaeorecord of the Late Quaternary, interpreted with the help of climate and ecosystem models, provides evidence that CO2 effects at the ecosystem scale are neither trivial nor transient.

How well can we simulate past climates? Evaluating the models using global palaeoenvironmental datasets.

Global syntheses of palaeoenvironmental data are required to test climate models under conditions different from the present. Data sets for this purpose contain data from spatially extensive networks of sites. The data are either directly comparable to model output or readily interpretable in terms of modelled climate variables. Data sets must contain sufficient documentation to distinguish between raw (primary) and interpreted (secondary, tertiary) data, to evaluate the assumptions involved in interpretation of the data, to exercise quality control, and to select data appropriate for specific goals. Four data bases for the Late Quaternary, documenting changes in lake levels since 30 kyr BP (the Global Lake Status Data Base), vegetation distribution at 18 kyr and 6 kyr BP (BIOME 6000), aeolian accumulation rates during the last glacial-interglacial cycle (DIRTMAP), and tropical terrestrial climates at the Last Glacial Maximum (the LGM Tropical Terrestrial Data Synthesis) are summarised. Each has been used to evaluate simulations of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 calendar kyr BP) and/or mid-Holocene (6 cal. kyr BP) environments. Comparisons have demonstrated that changes in radiative forcing and orography due to orbital and ice-sheet variations explain the first-order, broad-scale (in space and time) features of global climate change since the LGM. However, atmospheric models forced by 6 cal. kyr BP orbital changes with unchanged surface conditions fail to capture quantitative aspects of the observed climate, including the greatly increased magnitude and northward shift of the African monsoon during the early to mid-Holocene. Similarly, comparisons with palaeoenvironmental datasets show that atmospheric models have underestimated the magnitude of cooling and drying of much of the land surface at the LGM. The inclusion of feedbacks due to changes in ocean- and land-surface conditions at both times, and atmospheric dust loading at the LGM, appears to be required in order to produce a better simulation of these past climates. The development of Earth system models incorporating the dynamic interactions among ocean, atmosphere, and vegetation is therefore mandated by Quaternary science results as well as climatological principles. For greatest scientific benefit, this development must be paralleled by continued advances in palaeodata analysis and synthesis, which in turn will help to define questions that call for new focused data collection efforts.