Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?

Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structure—the warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusion—have been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEM’s ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model.

Extraction of tidal channel networks from airborne scanning laser altimetry and aerial photography

The study of the morphodynamics of tidal channel networks is important because of their role in tidal propagation and the evolution of salt-marshes and tidal flats. Channel dimensions range from tens of metres wide and metres deep near the low water mark to only 20-30cm wide and 20cm deep for the smallest channels on the marshes. The conventional method of measuring the networks is cumbersome, involving manual digitising of aerial photographs. This paper describes a semi-automatic knowledge-based network extraction method that is being implemented to work using airborne scanning laser altimetry (and later aerial photography). The channels exhibit a width variation of several orders of magnitude, making an approach based on multi-scale line detection difficult. The processing therefore uses multi-scale edge detection to detect channel edges, then associates adjacent anti-parallel edges together to form channels using a distance-with-destination transform. Breaks in the networks are repaired by extending channel ends in the direction of their ends to join with nearby channels, using domain knowledge that flow paths should proceed downhill and that any network fragment should be joined to a nearby fragment so as to connect eventually to the open sea.

Uses of airborne scanning laser altimetry for river flood modelling and coastal geomorphology

Two ongoing projects at ESSC that involve the development of new techniques for extracting information from airborne LiDAR data and combining this information with environmental models will be discussed. The first project in conjunction with Bristol University is aiming to improve 2-D river flood flow models by using remote sensing to provide distributed data for model calibration and validation. Airborne LiDAR can provide such models with a dense and accurate floodplain topography together with vegetation heights for parameterisation of model friction. The vegetation height data can be used to specify a friction factor at each node of a model’s finite element mesh. A LiDAR range image segmenter has been developed which converts a LiDAR image into separate raster maps of surface topography and vegetation height for use in the model. Satellite and airborne SAR data have been used to measure flood extent remotely in order to validate the modelled flood extent. Methods have also been developed for improving the models by decomposing the model’s finite element mesh to reflect floodplain features such as hedges and trees having different frictional properties to their surroundings. Originally developed for rural floodplains, the segmenter is currently being extended to provide DEMs and friction parameter maps for urban floods, by fusing the LiDAR data with digital map data. The second project is concerned with the extraction of tidal channel networks from LiDAR. These networks are important features of the inter-tidal zone, and play a key role in tidal propagation and in the evolution of salt-marshes and tidal flats. The study of their morphology is currently an active area of research, and a number of theories related to networks have been developed which require validation using dense and extensive observations of network forms and cross-sections. The conventional method of measuring networks is cumbersome and subjective, involving manual digitisation of aerial photographs in conjunction with field measurement of channel depths and widths for selected parts of the network. A semi-automatic technique has been developed to extract networks from LiDAR data of the inter-tidal zone. A multi-level knowledge-based approach has been implemented, whereby low level algorithms first extract channel fragments based mainly on image properties then a high level processing stage improves the network using domain knowledge. The approach adopted at low level uses multi-scale edge detection to detect channel edges, then associates adjacent anti-parallel edges together to form channels. The higher level processing includes a channel repair mechanism.

What is the new medicines use review ‘patient survey’ attempting to capture in the context of existing patient satisfaction with pharmacy questionnaires and a new conceptual framework?

The community pharmacy service medicines use review (MUR) was introduced in 2005 ‘to improve patient knowledge, concordance and use of medicines’ through a private patient–pharmacist consultation. The MUR presents a fundamental change in community pharmacy service provision. While traditionally pharmacists are dispensers of medicines and providers of medicines advice, and patients as recipients, the MUR considers pharmacists providing consultation-type activities and patients as active participants. The MUR facilitates a two-way discussion about medicines use. Traditional patient–pharmacist behaviours transform into a new set of behaviours involving the booking of appointments, consultation processes and form completion, and the physical environment of the patient–pharmacist interaction moves from the traditional setting of the dispensary and medicines counter to a private consultation room. Thus, the new service challenges traditional identities and behaviours of the patient and the pharmacist as well as the environment in which the interaction takes place. In 2008, the UK government concluded there is at present too much emphasis on the quantity of MURs rather than on their quality.[1] A number of plans to remedy the perceived imbalance included a suggestion to reward ‘health outcomes’ achieved, with calls for a more focussed and scientific approach to the evaluation of pharmacy services using outcomes research. Specifically, the UK government set out the main principal research areas for the evaluation of pharmacy services to include ‘patient and public perceptions and satisfaction’as well as ‘impact on care and outcomes’. A limited number of ‘patient satisfaction with pharmacy services’ type questionnaires are available, of varying quality, measuring dimensions relating to pharmacists’ technical competence, behavioural impressions and general satisfaction. For example, an often cited paper by Larson[2] uses two factors to measure satisfaction, namely ‘friendly explanation’ and ‘managing therapy’; the factors are highly interrelated and the questions somewhat awkwardly phrased, but more importantly, we believe the questionnaire excludes some specific domains unique to the MUR. By conducting patient interviews with recent MUR recipients, we have been working to identify relevant concepts and develop a conceptual framework to inform item development for a Patient Reported Outcome Measure questionnaire bespoke to the MUR. We note with interest the recent launch of a multidisciplinary audit template by the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain (RPSGB) in an attempt to review the effectiveness of MURs and improve their quality.[3] This template includes an MUR ‘patient survey’. We will discuss this ‘patient survey’ in light of our work and existing patient satisfaction with pharmacy questionnaires, outlining a new conceptual framework as a basis for measuring patient satisfaction with the MUR. Ethical approval for the study was obtained from the NHS Surrey Research Ethics Committee on 2 June 2008. References 1. Department of Health (2008). Pharmacy in England: Building on Strengths – Delivering the Future. London: HMSO. www. official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm73/7341/7341.pdf (accessed 29 September 2009). 2. Larson LN et al. Patient satisfaction with pharmaceutical care: update of a validated instrument. JAmPharmAssoc 2002; 42: 44–50. 3. Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain (2009). Pharmacy Medicines Use Review – Patient Audit. London: RPSGB. http:// qi4pd.org.uk/index.php/Medicines-Use-Review-Patient-Audit. html (accessed 29 September 2009).

C–H local modes in cyclobutene. II. Laser photoacoustic studies 10 000–17 000 cm−1. Vibrational structure and C–H local mode dynamics

In part I of this study [Baggott, Clase, and Mills, Spectrochim. Acta Part A 42, 319 (1986)] we presented FTIR spectra of gas phase cyclobutene and modeled the v=1–3 stretching states of both olefinic and methylenic C–H bonds in terms of a local mode model. In this paper we present some improvements to our original model and make use of recently derived ‘‘x,K relations’’ to find the equivalent normal mode descriptions. The use of both the local mode and normal mode approaches to modeling the vibrational structure is described in some detail. We present evidence for Fermi resonance interactions between the methylenic C–H stretch overtones and ring C–C stretch vibrations, revealed in laser photoacoustic spectra in the v=4–6 region. An approximate model vibrational Hamiltonian is proposed to explain the observed structure and is used to calculate the dynamics of the C–H stretch local mode decay resulting from interaction with lower frequency ring modes. The implications of our experimental and theoretical studies for mode‐selective photochemistry are discussed briefly.

High resolution photoacoustic overtone spectroscopy of monofluoroacetylene, HCCF, with a titanium:sapphire ring laser

Intracavity photoacoustic overtone spectrum of monofluoroacetylene, HCCF, has been recorded in the wave number region 10 750–14 500 cm−1 with a titanium:sapphire ring laser. The spectrum contains many dense vibration–rotation band systems which can be resolved with Doppler limited resolution. Altogether 58 individual overtone bands have been analyzed rotationally. Many of the observed bands show perturbations of which some have been attributed to anharmonic resonance interactions. A Fermi resonance model based on conventional rectilinear normal coordinate theory has been used to assign vibrationally bands from this work and from earlier studies. Many of the observed vibrational term values and rotational constants can be reproduced well with this model. The results show the importance of the Fermi resonance interactions at the high overtone excitations.

Experimental verification of suction sampler capture efficiency in grasslands of differing vegetation height and structure

1. Suction sampling is a popular method for the collection of quantitative data on grassland invertebrate populations, although there have been no detailed studies into the effectiveness of the method. 2. We investigate the effect of effort (duration and number of suction samples) and sward height on the efficiency of suction sampling of grassland beetle, true bug, planthopper and spider Populations. We also compare Suction sampling with an absolute sampling method based on the destructive removal of turfs. 3. Sampling for durations of 16 seconds was sufficient to collect 90% of all individuals and species of grassland beetles, with less time required for the true bugs, spiders and planthoppers. The number of samples required to collect 90% of the species was more variable, although in general 55 sub-samples was sufficient for all groups, except the true bugs. Increasing sward height had a negative effect on the capture efficiency of suction sampling. 4. The assemblage structure of beetles, planthoppers and spiders was independent of the sampling method (suction or absolute) used. 5. Synthesis and applications. In contrast to other sampling methods used in grassland habitats (e.g. sweep netting or pitfall trapping), suction sampling is an effective quantitative tool for the measurement of invertebrate diversity and assemblage structure providing sward height is included as a covariate. The effective sampling of beetles, true bugs, planthoppers and spiders altogether requires a minimum sampling effort of 110 sub-samples of duration of 16 seconds. Such sampling intensities can be adjusted depending on the taxa sampled, and we provide information to minimize sampling problems associated with this versatile technique. Suction sampling should remain an important component in the toolbox of experimental techniques used during both experimental and management sampling regimes within agroecosystems, grasslands or other low-lying vegetation types.

Mixture models for capture-recapture count data

The contribution investigates the problem of estimating the size of a population, also known as the missing cases problem. Suppose a registration system is targeting to identify all cases having a certain characteristic such as a specific disease (cancer, heart disease, ...), disease related condition (HIV, heroin use, ...) or a specific behavior (driving a car without license). Every case in such a registration system has a certain notification history in that it might have been identified several times (at least once) which can be understood as a particular capture-recapture situation. Typically, cases are left out which have never been listed at any occasion, and it is this frequency one wants to estimate. In this paper modelling is concentrating on the counting distribution, e.g. the distribution of the variable that counts how often a given case has been identified by the registration system. Besides very simple models like the binomial or Poisson distribution, finite (nonparametric) mixtures of these are considered providing rather flexible modelling tools. Estimation is done using maximum likelihood by means of the EM algorithm. A case study on heroin users in Bangkok in the year 2001 is completing the contribution.

Estimators in capture-recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture-recapture methods to human populations. Capture-recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln-Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao's lower bound estimator, the Zelterman's estimator, McKendrick's moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao's estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao's and Chapman's estimator. Results indicate that Chao's estimator is less biased than Chapman's estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao's estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

CAMCR: Computer assisted mixture model analysis for capture-recapture count data

Population size estimation with discrete or nonparametric mixture models is considered, and reliable ways of construction of the nonparametric mixture model estimator are reviewed and set into perspective. Construction of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is done for any number of components up to the global nonparametric maximum likelihood bound using the EM algorithm. In addition, the estimators of Chao and Zelterman are considered with some generalisations of Zelterman’s estimator. All computations are done with CAMCR, a special software developed for population size estimation with mixture models. Several examples and data sets are discussed and the estimators illustrated. Problems using the mixture model-based estimators are highlighted.