TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

Genotypic and environmental influences on the performance of wheat root systems

Genetic and environmental factors interact to determine the growth and activity of crop root systems. This paper examines the effects of agronomic management and genotype on wheat root systems in the UK and Australia, and suggests ways in which root limitations to crop performance might be alleviated. In a field study in the UK which examined late-season growth and activity, fungicide maintained the size of the root system during early grain-filling, and there were significant differences between cultivars in root distribution with depth below 0.3 m. Shamrock had a longer root system below 0.3 m than varieties such as Hereward and Consort. Fungicide significantly increased root growth at 0.1-0.2 m in one season. In Australia, a wheat line selected for high shoot vigour had associated root vigour during early seedling growth but the effect on root growth did not persist. The results provide examples of genotypic differences in wheat root growth under field conditions which interact with agronomic management in ways which can be exploited to benefit growth and yield in diverse environments.

Ring-chain interconversion in high-performance polymer systems. 3. Cyclodepolymerization of poly(m-phenylene isophthalamide) (Nomex) and entropically driven ring-opening polymerization of the macrocyclic oligomers so produced

A homologous series of macrocyclic oligoamides has been prepared in high yield by reaction of isophthaloyl chloride with m-phenylenediamine under pseudo-high-dilution conditions. The products were characterized by infrared and H-1 NMR spectroscopies, matrix assisted laser desorption-ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry, and gel permeation chromatography (GPC). A series of linear oligomers was prepared for comparison. The macrocycles ranged in size from the cyclic trimer up to at least the cyclic nonamer (90 ring atoms). The same homologous series of macrocyclic oligomers was prepared in high yield by the cyclodepolymerization of poly(m-phenylene isophthalamide) (Nomex). Cyclodepolymerization was best achieved by treating a 1% w/v solution of the polymer in dimethyl sulfoxide containing calcium chloride or lithium chloride with 3-4 mol % of sodium hydride or the sodium salt of benzanilide at 150 degreesC for 70 h. Treatment of a concentrated solution of the macrocyclic oligomers (25% w/v) with 4 mol % of sodium hydride or the sodium salt of benzanilide in a solution of lithium chloride in dimethyl sulfoxide at 170 degreesC for 6 h resulted in efficient entropically driven ring-opening polymerizations to give poly(m-phenylene isophthalamide), characterized by infrared and H-1 NMR spectroscopies and by GPC. The molecular weights obtained were comparable with those of the commercial polymer.

The air distribution index as an indicator for energy consumption and performance of ventilation systems

This paper deals with the energy consumption and the evaluation of the performance of air supply systems for a ventilated room involving high- and low-level supplies. The energy performance assessment is based on the airflow rate, which is related to the fan power consumption by achieving the same environmental quality performance for each case. Four different ventilation systems are considered: wall displacement ventilation, confluent jets ventilation, impinging jet ventilation and a high level mixing ventilation system. The ventilation performance of these systems will be examined by means of achieving the same Air Distribution Index (ADI) for different cases. The widely used high-level supplies require much more fan power than those for low-level supplies for achieving the same value of ADI. In addition, the supply velocity, hence the supply dynamic pressure, for a high-level supply is much larger than for low-level supplies. This further increases the power consumption for high-level supply systems. The paper considers these factors and attempts to provide some guidelines on the difference in the energy consumption associated with high and low level air supply systems. This will be useful information for designers and to the authors' knowledge there is a lack of information available in the literature on this area of room air distribution. The energy performance of the above-mentioned ventilation systems has been evaluated on the basis of the fan power consumed which is related to the airflow rate required to provide equivalent indoor environment. The Air Distribution Index (ADI) is used to evaluate the indoor environment produced in the room by the ventilation strategy being used. The results reveal that mixing ventilation requires the highest fan power and the confluent jets ventilation needs the lowest fan power in order to achieve nearly the same value of ADI.

High bandwidth, large workspace haptic interaction: flying phantoms

It is well understood that for haptic interaction: free motion performance and closed-loop constrained motion performance have conflicting requirements. The difficulties for both conditions are compounded when increased workspace is required as most solutions result in a reduction of achievable impedance and bandwidth. A method of chaining devices together to increase workspace without adverse effect on performance is described and analysed. The method is then applied to a prototype, colloquially known as 'The Flying Phantom', and shown to provide high-bandwidth, low impedance interaction over the full range of horizontal movement across the front of a human user.

Modeling the effects of node heterogeneity on the performance of a real grid application

The performance benefit when using Grid systems comes from different strategies, among which partitioning the applications into parallel tasks is the most important. However, in most cases the enhancement coming from partitioning is smoothed by the effect of the synchronization overhead, mainly due to the high variability of completion times of the different tasks, which, in turn, is due to the large heterogeneity of Grid nodes. For this reason, it is important to have models which capture the performance of such systems. In this paper we describe a queueing-network-based performance model able to accurately analyze Grid architectures, and we use the model to study a real parallel application executed in a Grid. The proposed model improves the classical modelling techniques and highlights the impact of resource heterogeneity and network latency on the application performance.

A Packet/Frame sync detector based on statistical mode with application to wireless-USB

Wireless Personal Area Networks (WPANs) are offering high data rates suitable for interconnecting high bandwidth personal consumer devices (Wireless HD streaming, Wireless-USB and Bluetooth EDR). ECMA-368 is the Physical (PHY) and Media Access Control (MAC) backbone of many of these wireless devices. WPAN devices tend to operate in an ad-hoc based network and therefore it is important to successfully latch onto the network and become part of one of the available piconets. This paper presents a new algorithm for detecting the Packet/Fame Sync (PFS) signal in ECMA-368 to identify piconets and aid symbol timing. The algorithm is based on correlating the received PFS symbols with the expected locally stored symbols over the 24 or 12 PFS symbols, but selecting the likely TFC based on the highest statistical mode from the 24 or 12 best correlation results. The results are very favorable showing an improvement margin in the order of 11.5dB in reference sensitivity tests between the required performance using this algorithm and the performance of comparable systems.

Modeling the effects of node heterogeneity on the performance of grid applications

The performance benefit when using grid systems comes from different strategies, among which partitioning the applications into parallel tasks is the most important. However, in most cases the enhancement coming from partitioning is smoothed by the effects of synchronization overheads, mainly due to the high variability in the execution times of the different tasks, which, in turn, is accentuated by the large heterogeneity of grid nodes. In this paper we design hierarchical, queuing network performance models able to accurately analyze grid architectures and applications. Thanks to the model results, we introduce a new allocation policy based on a combination between task partitioning and task replication. The models are used to study two real applications and to evaluate the performance benefits obtained with allocation policies based on task replication.