The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Soft topographic map for clustering and classification of bacteria

In this work a new method for clustering and building a topographic representation of a bacteria taxonomy is presented. The method is based on the analysis of stable parts of the genome, the so-called “housekeeping genes”. The proposed method generates topographic maps of the bacteria taxonomy, where relations among different type strains can be visually inspected and verified. Two well known DNA alignement algorithms are applied to the genomic sequences. Topographic maps are optimized to represent the similarity among the sequences according to their evolutionary distances. The experimental analysis is carried out on 147 type strains of the Gammaprotebacteria class by means of the 16S rRNA housekeeping gene. Complete sequences of the gene have been retrieved from the NCBI public database. In the experimental tests the maps show clusters of homologous type strains and present some singular cases potentially due to incorrect classification or erroneous annotations in the database.

A hierarchical distributed approach for mining molecular fragments

Recently, two approaches have been introduced that distribute the molecular fragment mining problem. The first approach applies a master/worker topology, the second approach, a completely distributed peer-to-peer system, solves the scalability problem due to the bottleneck at the master node. However, in many real world scenarios the participating computing nodes cannot communicate directly due to administrative policies such as security restrictions. Thus, potential computing power is not accessible to accelerate the mining run. To solve this shortcoming, this work introduces a hierarchical topology of computing resources, which distributes the management over several levels and adapts to the natural structure of those multi-domain architectures. The most important aspect is the load balancing scheme, which has been designed and optimized for the hierarchical structure. The approach allows dynamic aggregation of heterogenous computing resources and is applied to wide area network scenarios.

Consumer welfare effects of introducing and labeling genetically modified food

Non-hypothetical valuations obtained from experimental auctions in three United States and two European locations were used to calculate welfare effects of introducing and labeling of genetically modified food. Under certain assumptions, we find that introduction of genetically modified food has been welfare enhancing, on average, for United States consumers but not so for Europeans and while mandatory labeling has been beneficial for European consumers, such a policy would be detrimental in the United States. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogeny and the hierarchical organization of plant diversity

R. H. Whittaker's idea that plant diversity can be divided into a hierarchy of spatial components from alpha at the within-habitat scale through beta for the turnover of species between habitats to gamma along regional gradients implies the underlying existence of alpha, beta, and gamma niches. We explore the hypothesis that the evolution of a, (3, and gamma niches is also hierarchical, with traits that define the a niche being labile, while those defining a and 7 niches are conservative. At the a level we find support for the hypothesis in the lack of close significant phylogenetic relationship between meadow species that have similar a niches. In a second test, a niche overlap based on a variety of traits is compared between congeners and noncongeners in several communities; here, too, there is no evidence of a correlation between a niche and phylogeny. To test whether beta and gamma niches evolve conservatively, we reconstructed the evolution of relevant traits on evolutionary trees for 14 different clades. Tests against null models revealed a number of instances, including some in island radiations, in which habitat (beta niche) and elevational maximum (an aspect of the gamma niche) showed evolutionary conservatism.

Bayesian clustering of farm types using the mixtures model

A Bayesian method of classifying observations that are assumed to come from a number of distinct subpopulations is outlined. The method is illustrated with simulated data and applied to the classification of farms according to their level and variability of income. The resultant classification shows a greater diversity of technical charactersitics within farm types than is conventionally the case. The range of mean farm income between groups in the new classification is wider than that of the conventional method and the variability of income within groups is narrower. Results show that the highest income group in 2000 included large specialist dairy farmers and pig and poultry producers, whilst in 2001 it included large and small specialist dairy farms and large mixed dairy and arable farms. In both years the lowest income group is dominated by non-milk producing livestock farms.

A hierarchical Bayesian model for predicting the functional consequences of amino-acid polymorphisms

Genetic polymorphisms in deoxyribonucleic acid coding regions may have a phenotypic effect on the carrier, e.g. by influencing susceptibility to disease. Detection of deleterious mutations via association studies is hampered by the large number of candidate sites; therefore methods are needed to narrow down the search to the most promising sites. For this, a possible approach is to use structural and sequence-based information of the encoded protein to predict whether a mutation at a particular site is likely to disrupt the functionality of the protein itself. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression spline (BMARS) model for supervised learning in this context and assess its predictive performance by using data from mutagenesis experiments on lac repressor and lysozyme proteins. In these experiments, about 12 amino-acid substitutions were performed at each native amino-acid position and the effect on protein functionality was assessed. The training data thus consist of repeated observations at each position, which the hierarchical framework is needed to account for. The model is trained on the lac repressor data and tested on the lysozyme mutations and vice versa. In particular, we show that the hierarchical BMARS model, by allowing for the clustered nature of the data, yields lower out-of-sample misclassification rates compared with both a BMARS and a frequen-tist MARS model, a support vector machine classifier and an optimally pruned classification tree.

Heat-shock response in Arabidopsis thaliana explored by multiplexed quantitative proteomics using differential metabolic labeling

We have developed a general method for multiplexed quantitative proteomics using differential metabolic stable isotope labeling and mass spectrometry. The method was successfully used to study the dynamics of heat-shock response in Arabidopsis thaliana. A number of known heat-shock proteins were confirmed, and some proteins not previously associated with heat shock were discovered. The method is applicable in stable isotope labeling and allows for high degrees of multiplexing.

Fas ligand-induced apoptosis is regulated by nitric oxide through the inhibition of fas receptor clustering and the nitrosylation of protein kinase Cepsilon

Apoptosis induced by the death-inducing ligand FasL (CD95L) is a major mechanism of cell death. Trophoblast cells express the Fas receptor yet survive in an environment that is rich in the ligand. We report that basal nitric oxide (NO) production is responsible for the resistance of trophoblasts to FasL-induced apoptosis. In this study we demonstrate that basal NO production resulted in the inhibition of receptor clustering following ligand binding. In addition NO also protected cells through the selective nitrosylation, and inhibition, of protein kinase Cepsilon (PKCepsilon) but not PKCalpha. In the absence of NO production PKCepsilon interacted with, and phosphorylated, the anti-apoptotic protein cFLIP. The interaction is predominantly with the short form of cFLIP and its phosphorylation reduces its recruitment to the death-inducing signaling complex (DISC) that is formed following binding of a death-inducing ligand to its receptor. Inhibition of cFLIP recruitment to the DISC leads to increased activation of caspase 8 and subsequently to apoptosis. Inhibition of PKCepsilon using siRNA significantly reversed the sensitivity to apoptosis induced by inhibition of NO synthesis suggesting that NO-mediated inhibition of PKCepsilon plays an important role in the regulation of Fas-induced apoptosis.

Quantitative proteomics using uniform 15N-labeling, mascot and the trans-proteomic pipeline

Stable isotope labeling combined with MS is a powerful method for measuring relative protein abundances, for instance, by differential metabolic labeling of some or all amino acids with 14N and 15N in cell culture or hydroponic media. These and most other types of quantitative proteomics experiments using high-throughput technologies, such as LC-MS/MS, generate large amounts of raw MS data. This data needs to be processed efficiently and automatically, from the mass spectrometer to statistically evaluated protein identifications and abundance ratios. This paper describes in detail an approach to the automated analysis of uniformly 14N/15N-labeled proteins using MASCOT peptide identification in conjunction with the trans-proteomic pipeline (TPP) and a few scripts to integrate the analysis workflow. Two large proteomic datasets from uniformly labeled Arabidopsis thaliana were used to illustrate the analysis pipeline. The pipeline can be fully automated and uses only common or freely available software.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantitative proteomics using uniform N-15-labeling, MASCOT, and the trans-proteomic pipeline

Stable isotope labeling combined with MS is a powerful method for measuring relative protein abundances, for instance, by differential metabolic labeling of some or all amino acids with N-14 and N-15 in cell culture or hydroponic media. These and most other types of quantitative proteomics experiments using high-throughput technologies, such as LC-MS/MS, generate large amounts of raw MS data. This data needs to be processed efficiently and automatically, from the mass spectrometer to statistically evaluated protein identifications and abundance ratios. This paper describes in detail an approach to the automated analysis of Uniformly N-14/N-15-labeled proteins using MASCOT peptide identification in conjunction with the trans-proteomic pipeline (TPP) and a few scripts to integrate the analysis workflow. Two large proteomic datasets from uniformly labeled Arabidopsis thaliana were used to illustrate the analysis pipeline. The pipeline can be fully automated and uses only common or freely available software.

Unsupervised genetic algorithm deployed for intrusion detection

This paper represents the first step in an on-going work for designing an unsupervised method based on genetic algorithm for intrusion detection. Its main role in a broader system is to notify of an unusual traffic and in that way provide the possibility of detecting unknown attacks. Most of the machine-learning techniques deployed for intrusion detection are supervised as these techniques are generally more accurate, but this implies the need of labeling the data for training and testing which is time-consuming and error-prone. Hence, our goal is to devise an anomaly detector which would be unsupervised, but at the same time robust and accurate. Genetic algorithms are robust and able to avoid getting stuck in local optima, unlike the rest of clustering techniques. The model is verified on KDD99 benchmark dataset, generating a solution competitive with the solutions of the state-of-the-art which demonstrates high possibilities of the proposed method.

Hierarchical composite regular parallel architecture

The design space of emerging heterogenous multi-core architectures with re-configurability element makes it feasible to design mixed fine-grained and coarse-grained parallel architectures. This paper presents a hierarchical composite array design which extends the curret design space of regular array design by combining a sequence of transformations. This technique is applied to derive a new design of a pipelined parallel regular array with different dataflow between phases of computation.