Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A capture-recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 x 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture-recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture-recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

Oestrogenic and androgenic activity of triclosan in breast cancer cells

As a consequence of its widespread use as an antimicrobial agent in consumer goods, triclosan has become distributed ubiquitously across the ecosystem, and recent reports that it can cause endocrine disruption in aquatic species has increased concern. It is reported here that triclosan possesses intrinsic oestrogenic and androgenic activity in a range of assays in vitro which could provide some explanation for the endocrine disrupting properties described in aquatic populations. In terms of oestrogenic activity, triclosan displaced [H-3]oestradiol from oestrogen receptors (ER) of MCF7 human breast cancer cells and from recombinant human ER alpha/ER beta. Triclosan at 10(-5) M completely inhibited the induction of the oestrogen-responsive ERE-CAT reporter gene in MCF7 cells by 10(-10) M 17 beta-oestradiol and the stimulation of growth of MCF7 human breast cancer cells by 10(-10) M 17 beta-oestradiol. On its own, 1 mu M triclosan increased the growth of MCF7 cells over 21 days. Triclosan also had androgenic activity. It displaced [H-3]testosterone from binding to the ligand binding domain of the rat androgen receptor (AR). Triclosan was able to inhibit the induction of the androgen-responsive LTR-CAT reporter gene in S115 mouse mammary tumour cells by 10(-9) M testosterone and in T47D human breast cancer cells by 10(-8) M testosterone at concentrations of 10(-7) M and 10(-6) M, respectively. Triclosan at 2 x 10(-5) M antagonized the stimulation of the growth of S115+A mouse mammary tumour cells by 10(-9) M testosterone. The finding that triclosan has oestrogenic and androgenic activity warrants further investigation in relation to both endocrine disruption of aquatic wildlife and any possible impact on human health. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparative study of oestrogenic properties of eight phytoestrogens in MCF7 human breast cancer cells

Previous studies have compared the oestrogenic properties of phytoestrogens in a wide variety of disparate assays. Since not all phytoestrogens have been tested in each assay, this makes inter-study comparisons and ranking oestrogenic potency difficult. In this report, we have compared the oestrogen agonist and antagonist activity of eight phytoestrogens (genistein, daidzein, equol, miroestrol, deoxymiroestrol, 8-prenylnaringenin, coumestrol and resveratrol) in a range of assays all based within the same receptor and cellular context of the MCF7 human breast cancer cell line. The relative binding of each phytoestrogen to oestrogen receptor (ER) of MCF7 cytosol was calculated from the molar excess needed for 50 % inhibition of [H-3]oestradiol binding (IC50), and was in the order coumestrol (35x)/8-prenylnaringenin (45 x)/deoxymiroestrol (50 x) > miroestrol (260x) > genistein (1000x) > equol (4000x) > daidzein (not achieved: 40 % inhibition at 10(4)-fold molar excess) > resveratrol (not achieved: 10 % inhibition at 10(5)-fold molar excess). For cell-based assays, the rank order of potency (estimated in terms of the concentration needed to achieve a response equivalent to 50 % of that found with 17 beta-oestradiol (IC50)) remained very similar for all the assays whether measuring ligand ability to induce a stably transfected oestrogen-responsive ERE-CAT reporter gene, cell growth in terms of proliferation rate after 7 days or cell growth in terms of saturation density after 14 days. The IC50 values for these three assays in order were for 17 beta-oestradiol (1 x 10-(11) M, 1 x 10-(11) M, 2 x 10(-11) M), and in rank order of potency for the phytoestrogens, deoxymiroestrol (1 x 10(-10) M, 3 x 10(-11) M, 2 x 10(-11) M) > miroestrol (3 x 10(-10) M, 2 x 10(-11) M, 8 x 10(-11) M) > 8-prenylnaringenin (1 x 10(-9) M, 3 x 10(-10) M, 3 x 10(-10) M) > cournestrol (3 x 10(-8) M, 2 x 10(-8) M, 3 x 10(-8) M) > genistein (4 x 10(-8) M, 2 x 10(-8) M, 1 x 10(-8) M)/equol (1 x 10(-7) M, 3 x 10(-8) M, 2 x 10(-8) M) > daidzein (3 x 10(-7) M, 2 x 10(-7) M, 4 x 10(-8) M) > resveratrol (4 x 10(-6) M, not achieved, not achieved). Despite using the same receptor context of the MCF7 cells, this rank order differed from that determined from receptor binding. The most marked difference was for cournestrol and 8-prenylnaringenin which both displayed a relatively potent ability to displace [3H]oestradiol from cytosolic ER compared with their much lower activity in the cell-based assays. Albeit at varying concentrations, seven of the eight phytoestrogens (all except resveratrol) gave similar maximal responses to that given by 17 beta-oestradiol in cell-based assays which makes them full oestrogen agonists. We found no evidence for any oestrogen antagonist action of any of these phytoestrogens at concentrations of up to 10(-6) M on either reporter gene induction or on stimulation of cell growth. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) clones against seven Colombian isolates of Moniliophthora roreri (Cif.) Evans et al., representing four major genetic groupings of the pathogen in cacao

Artificial pod inoculation was used to compare the relative aggressiveness of seven Colombian isolates of Moniliophthora roreri (the causal agent of moniliasis or frosty pod disease), representing four major genetic groupings of the pathogen in cacao (cocoa), when applied to five diverse cacao genotypes (ICS-1, ICS-95, TSH-565, SCC-61 and CAP-34) at La Suiza Experimental Farm, Santander Department, Colombia. The following variables were evaluated 9 weeks after inoculation of 2- to 3-month-old pods with spore suspensions (1.2 x 10(5) spores mL(-1)): (i) disease incidence (DI); (ii) external severity (ES); and (iii) internal severity (IS). IS was found to be of greatest value in classifying the reaction of the host genotype against M. roreri. Genetic variation reported between isolates and cacao genotypes was not matched by similar diversity in their aggressiveness. All isolates were generally highly aggressive against most cacao genotypes, with only two isolates showing reduced IS and ES reactions. There was considerable variation between clones in the IS and ES scores, but one cultivated clone (ICS-95) displayed a significant level of resistance against all seven isolates. This clone may be useful in cacao breeding initiatives for resistance to moniliasis of cacao.

Immobilisation of eta(3)-allyidicarbonyl complexes of Mo-II with bidentate nitrogen ligands within aluminium-pillared clays

Molybdenum(II) complexes [MOX(CO)(2)(eta(3)-allyl)(CH3CN)(2)] (X = Cl or Br) were encapsulated in an aluminium-pillared natural clay or a porous clay heterostructure and allowed to react with bidentate diimine ligands. All the materials obtained were characterised by several solid-state techniques. Powder XRD, and Al-27 and Si-29 MAS NMR were used to investigate the integrity of the pillared clay during the modification treatments. C-13 CP MAS NMR, FTIR, elemental analyses and low-temperature nitrogen adsorption showed that the immobilisation of the precursor complexes was successful as well as the in situ ligand-substitution reaction. The new complex [MoBr(CO)(2)(eta(3)-allyl)(2-aminodipyridyl)] was characterised by single-crystal X-ray diffraction and spectroscopic techniques, and NMR studies were used to investigate its fluxional behaviour in solution. The prepared materials are active for the oxidation of cis-cyclooctene using tert-butyl hydroperoxide as oxidant, though the activity of the isolated complexes is higher. ((c) Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 69451 Weinheim, Germany, 2008).

The surface structure of BaO on Pt(111): (2x2)-reconstructed BaO(111)

The surface structure of BaO(111) has been determined using STM and computer modelling. The BaO(111) surface was prepared in thin film form on Pt(111) and presents a surface with twice the lattice parameter expected for that of the bulk termination, i.e. a (2 x 2) reconstruction. Computer modelling indicates that the bulk termination is unstable, but that the (2 x 2) reconstructed BaO(111) surface has a low surface energy and is hence a stable surface reconstruction. The (2 x 2) reconstruction consists of small, three-sided pyramids with (100) oriented sides and either oxygen or barium ions at the apices. Less regular surface reconstructions containing the same pyramids are almost equally stable, indicating that we may also expect less regular regions to appear with a fairly random distribution of these surface species. The simulations further suggest that a regular (4 x 4) reconstruction built up of bigger pyramids is even more energetically favourable, and some evidence is found for such a structure in the STM. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the binding ability of a novel dioxatetraazamacrocyclic receptor that contains two phenanthroline units: selective uptake of carboxylate anions

The novel dioxatetraaza macrocycle [26]phen(2)N(4)O(2), which incorporates two phenanthroline units, has been synthesized, and its acid-base behavior has been evaluated by potentiometric and H-1 NMR methods. Six protonation constants were determined, and the protonation sequence was established by NMR. The location of the fifth proton on the phen nitrogen was confirmed by X-ray determinations of the crystal structures of the receptor as bromide and chloride salts. The two compounds have the general molecular formula {(H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))X-n(H2O)(5-n)}X(n-1)(.)mH(2)O, where X = Cl, n = 3, and m = 6 or X = Br, n = 4, and m = 5.5. In the solid state, the (H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))(5+) cation adopts a "horseshoe" topology with sufficient room to encapsulate three or four halogen anions through the several N-(HX)-X-... hydrogen-bonding interactions. Two supermolecules {(H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))X-n(H2O)(5-n)}((5-n)+) form an interpenetrating dimeric species, which was also found by ESI mass spectrum. Binding studies of the protonated macrocycle with aliphatic (ox(2-), mal(2-), suc(2-), cit(3-), cta(3-)) and aromatic (bzc(-), naphc(-), anthc(-), pyrc(-), ph(2-), iph(2-), tph(2-), btc(3-)) anions were determined in water by potentiometric methods. These studies were complemented by H-1 NMR titrations in D2O of the receptor with selected anions. The H-i[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2)(i+) receptor can selectively uptake highly charged or extended aromatic carboxylate anions, such as btc(3-) and pyrc(-), in the pH ranges of 4.0-8.5 and < 4.0, respectively, from aqueous solution that contain the remaining anions as pollutants or contaminants. To obtain further insight into these structural and experimental findings, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were carried out in water solution.

Influence of a halide ion on ribbons of water pentamer

Reactions of CuF2, CuCl2 center dot 2H(2)O and CuBr2 with 2,2'-dipyridylamine (HDPA) in water at room temperature using Cu: HDPA = 2: 1 mol yield [Cu(HDPA) (H2O)(2)F]F center dot 3H(2)O (1), Cu(HDPA) Cl-2 (2) and [Cu(HDPA) Br-2 (3) respectively. The structures of 2 and 3 are isostructural in spacegroup C-2 with cell dimensions; for 2, a = 14.702(8), b = 7.726(2), c = 4.829(6) angstrom, beta = 96.68(8)degrees and for 3, a = 14.2934(8), b = 7.9057(6), c = 5.1982(5) angstrom, beta = 94.049(7)degrees. In the X-ray crystal structure, the complex 1 is found to contain tapes of water pentamers. Our DFT calculations at the B3LYP/LanL2DZ level show that the reaction Cu(HDPA)X-2 + 2H(2)O = [Cu(HDPA)(H2O)(2)X]X is most exothermic in the gas phase when X- = F-, i.e., the tendency of water uptake is maximum for Cu(HDPA) F-2. It seems that the exothermicities of the aquations of Cu(HDPA) Cl-2 and Cu(HDPA) Br-2 are not sufficient to stabilise the type of ribbons of water observed in 1 and consequently water is eschewed when X- = Cl- or Br-.

Synergetic effects of the Cu/Pt{110} surface alloy: enhanced reactivity of water and carbon monoxide

We have used synchrotron-based high-resolution X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy in combination with ab initio density functional theory calculations to investigate the characteristics of water and CO adsorption on the bimetallic Cu/Pt{110}-(2 x 1) surface at a Cu coverage near 0.5 ML. Cu fills the troughs of the reconstructed clean surface forming nanowires, which are stable up to 830 K. Their presence dramatically influences the adsorption of water and CO. Water adsorption changes from intact to partially dissociated while the desorption temperature of CO on this surface increases by up to 27 K with respect to the clean Pt{110} surface. Ab initio calculations and experimental valence band spectra reveal that the Cu 3d-band is narrowed and shifted upward with respect to bulk Cu surfaces. This and electron donation to surface Pt atoms cause the increase in the bond strength between CO and the Pt surface atoms. The pathway for water dissociation occurs via Cu surface atoms. The heat of adsorption of water bonding to Cu surface atoms was calculated to be 0.82 eV, which is significantly higher than on the clean Pt{110} surface; the activation energy for partial dissociation is 0.53 eV (not corrected for zero point energy).

UV absorption spectra of methyl-substituted hydroxy-cyclohexadienyl radicals in the gas phase

UV absorption spectra of five methyl-substituted hydroxy-cyclohexadienyl radicals, formed by the addition of the hydroxyl radical (OH) to toluene (methyl benzene), o-, m- and p-xylene (1,2-, 1,3- and 1,4-dimethyl benzene, respectively) and mesitylene (1,3,5-trimethylbenzene), have been determined at 298 K, 1 atm pressure (N-2 + O-2), and the corresponding absolute absorption cross-sections measured, using laser flash photolysis and time-resolved UV absorption detection. As observed for other cyclohexadienyl-type radicals, a strong absorption band is present in the 260-340 nm spectral region, with maximum cross-sections in the range (0.9-2.2) x 10(-17) cm(2) molecule(-1). The shape of the band varies significantly from one radical to the next for the series of aromatic precursors investigated. The nature and yields of hydroxylated ring-retaining oxidation products, identified in previous studies of the OH-initiated oxidation of aromatic hydrocarbons, and the results of theoretical density functional theory (DFT) calculations indicate that one or more possible isomers of the various OH-adducts may contribute to the observed spectra. Isomers where the OH-group is ortho- (or both ortho- and ipso-) to a substituent methyl-group are likely to be the most abundant but other isomers may also be formed to a significant extent. Nonetheless, the present study provides absorption spectra of the adduct radicals formed from the gas phase addition of OH to the aromatic hydrocarbons considered, near room temperature and I atm pressure. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oxidation of biogenic and water-soluble compounds in aqueous and organic aerosol droplets by ozone: a kinetic and product analysis approach using laser Raman tweezers

The results of an experimental study into the oxidative degradation of proxies for atmospheric aerosol are presented. We demonstrate that the laser Raman tweezers method can be used successfully to obtain uptake coeffcients for gaseous oxidants on individual aqueous and organic droplets, whilst the size and composition of the droplets is simultaneously followed. A laser tweezers system was used to trap individual droplets containing an unsaturated organic compound in either an aqueous or organic ( alkane) solvent. The droplet was exposed to gas- phase ozone and the reaction kinetics and products followed using Raman spectroscopy. The reactions of three different organic compounds with ozone were studied: fumarate anions, benzoate anions and alpha pinene. The fumarate and benzoate anions in aqueous solution were used to represent components of humic- like substances, HULIS; a alpha- pinene in an alkane solvent was studied as a proxy for biogenic aerosol. The kinetic analysis shows that for these systems the diffusive transport and mass accommodation of ozone is relatively fast, and that liquid- phase di. ffusion and reaction are the rate determining steps. Uptake coe. ffcients, g, were found to be ( 1.1 +/- 0.7) x 10(-5), ( 1.5 +/- 0.7) x 10 (-5) and ( 3.0 - 7.5) x 10 (-3) for the reactions of ozone with the fumarate, benzoate and a- pinene containing droplets, respectively. Liquid- phase bimolecular rate coe. cients for reactions of dissolved ozone molecules with fumarate, benzoate and a- pinene were also obtained: k(fumarate) = ( 2.7 +/- 2) x 10 (5), k(benzoate) = ( 3.5 +/- 3) x 10 (5) and k(alpha-pinene) = ( 1-3) x 10(7) dm(3) mol (-1) s (- 1). The droplet size was found to remain stable over the course of the oxidation process for the HULIS- proxies and for the oxidation of a- pinene in pentadecane. The study of the alpha- pinene/ ozone system is the first using organic seed particles to show that the hygroscopicity of the particle does not increase dramatically over the course of the oxidation. No products were detected by Raman spectroscopy for the reaction of benzoate ions with ozone. One product peak, consistent with aqueous carbonate anions, was observed when following the oxidation of fumarate ions by ozone. Product peaks observed in the reaction of ozone with alpha- pinene suggest the formation of new species containing carbonyl groups.

The synthesis and characterisation of four new antimony sulphides incorporating transition-metal complexes

Four new antimony sulphides, [T(dien)(2)]Sb6S10 center dot xH(2)O [T = Ni (1), Co (2) x approximate to 0.45], [Co(en)(3)]SbsSI(3) (3) and [Ni(en)(3)]Sb12S19 (4), have been synthesised under solvothermal conditions. In compounds (1) - (3), Sb12S228- secondary building units are connected to form layered structures. In (1) and (2), Sb-6 S-2- layers containing Sb16S16 heterorings are separated by [T(dien]2](2+) cations, whilst in (3), Sb8 S2- layers 10 13 contain [Co(en)3]2+ cations within large Sb22S22 pores. Compound (4) adopts a three-dimensional structure in which [Ni(en)3 12 cations lie within ca. 5 A wide channels. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The adsorption geometry of sulphur on Ir{100}: a quantitative LEED study

A quantitative low energy electron diffraction (LEED) analysis has been performed for the p(2 x 2)-S and c(2 x 2)-S surface structures formed by exposing the (1 x 1) phase of Ir{100} to H2S at 750 K. S is found to adsorb on the fourfold hollow sites in both structures leading to Pendry R-factor values of 0.17 for the p(2 x 2)-S and 0.16 for the c(2 x 2)-S structures. The distances between S and the nearest and next-nearest Ir atoms were found to be similar in both structures: 2.36 +/- 0.01 angstrom and 3.33 +/- 0.01 angstrom, respectively. The buckling in the second substrate layer is consistent with other structural studies for S adsorption on fcc{100} transition metal surfaces: 0.09 angstrom for p(2 x 2)-S and 0.02 angstrom for c(2 x 2)-S structures. The (1 x 5) reconstruction, which is the most stable phase for clean Ir{100}, is completely lifted and a c(2 x 2)-S overlayer is formed after exposure to H,S at 300 K followed by annealing to 520 K. CO temperature-programmed desorption (TPD) experiments indicate that the major factor in the poisoning of Ir by S is site blocking. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phase mixing and phase separation accompanying the catalytic oxidation of CO on Ir{100}

The co-adsorption of CO and O on the unreconstructed (1 x 1) phase of Ir {100} was examined by low energy electron diffraction (LEED) and temperature programmed desorption (TPD). When CO is adsorbed at 188 K onto the Ir{100} surface precovered with 0.5 ML O, a mixed c(4 x 2)-(2O + CO) overlayer is formed. All CO is oxidised upon heating and desorbs as CO2 in three distinct stages at 230 K, 330 K and 430 K in a 2:1:2 ratio. The excess oxygen left on the surface after all CO has reacted forms an overlayer with a LEED pattern with p(2 x 10) periodicity. This overlayer consists of stripes with a local p(2 x 1)-O arrangement of oxygen atoms separated by stripes of uncovered It. When CO is adsorbed at 300 K onto the surface precovered with 0.5 ML O an apparent (2 x 2) LEED pattern is observed. LEED IV analysis reveals that this pattern is a superposition of diffraction patterns from islands of c(2 x 2)-CO and p(2 x 1)-O structures on the surface. Heating this co-adsorbed overlayer leads to the desorption of CO, in two stages at 330 K and 430 K; the excess CO (0.1 ML) desorbs at 590 K. LEED IV structural analysis of the mixed c(4 x 2) O and CO overlayer shows that both the CO molecules and the O atoms occupy bridge sites. The O atoms show significant lateral displacements of 0.14 angstrom away from the CO molecules; the C-O bond is slightly expanded with respect to the gas phase (1.19 angstrom); the modifications of the Ir substrate with respect to the bulk-terminated surface are very small. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.