Domesticating the calendar: the hours and the almanac in Tudor England

This article examines two genres of text which were extremely popular in the late-medieval and early modern periods, and it pays particular attention to women users. The printed almanacs of sixteenth-century England were enormously influential; yet their contents are so formulaic and repetitive as to appear almost empty of valuable information. Their most striking feature is their astrological guidance for the reader, and this has led to them being considered 'merely' the repository of popular superstition. Only in the last decade have themes of gender and medicine been given serious consideration in relation to almanacs; but this work has focused on the seventeenth century. This chapter centres on a detailed analysis of sixteenth-century English almanacs, and the various kinds of scientific and household guidance they offered to women readers. Both compilers and users needed to chart a safe course through the religious and scientific battles of the time; and the complexities involved are demonstrated by considering the almanacs in relation to competing sources of guidance. These latter are Books of Hours and 'scientific' works such as medical calendars compiled by Oxford scholars in the late middle ages. A key feature of this chapter is that it gives practical interpretations of this complex information, for the guidance of modern readers unfamiliar with astrology.

Human language as a culturally transmitted replicator

Human languages form a distinct and largely independent class of cultural replicators with behaviour and fidelity that can rival that of genes. Parallels between biological and linguistic evolution mean that statistical methods inspired by phylogenetics and comparative biology are being increasingly applied to study language. Phylogenetic trees constructed from linguistic elements chart the history of human cultures, and comparative studies reveal surprising and general features of how languages evolve, including patterns in the rates of evolution of language elements and social factors that influence temporal trends of language evolution. For many comparative questions of anthropology and human behavioural ecology, historical processes estimated from linguistic phylogenies may be more relevant than those estimated from genes.

Effects of active information processing on the understanding of risk information

Two experiments investigated effects of active processing of risk information on participants' understanding and judgments. It was hypothesized that more active processing would lead to better understanding and differences in affective judgments (e.g. increased satisfaction and reduced perceived risk to health). In both experiments participants were given a written scenario about their being prescribed a fictitious medication. This medication was said to cause side effects in 2% of people who took it. Before answering a series of written questions, participants in the active conditions of both experiments were asked to carry out a reflective task (portraying the size of risk on a bar chart in Experiment 1 and answering a reflective question in Experiment 2). The results showed that active participants rated the likelihood of experiencing possible side effects significantly lower than passive participants (Experiment 1), and that active participants were significantly more satisfied with the information and judged perceived risk to health from taking the medication significantly lower than passive participants (Experiment 2). In both experiments, active participants were significantly more correct in their probability and frequency estimates. The studies demonstrate that active processing of risk information leads to improved understanding of the information given. This has important implications for risk communication. In the context of health, better understanding should lead to improved decision-making and health outcomes. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

A longitudinal study of perceptual grouping by proximity, luminance and shape in infants at two, four and six months

Grouping by luminance and shape similarity has previously been demonstrated in neonates and at 4 months, respectively. By contrast, grouping by proximity has hitherto not been investigated in infancy. This is also the first study to chart the developmental emergence of perceptual grouping longitudinally. Sixty-one infants were presented with a matrix of local stimuli grouped horizontally or vertically by luminance, shape or proximity at 2, 4, and 6 months. Infants were exposed to each set of stimuli for three presentation durations. Grouping was demonstrated for luminance similarity at the earliest testing age, 2 months, by shape similarity at 4 months, but was not observed for grouping by proximity. Grouping by shape similarity showed a distinctive pattern of grouping ability across exposure durations, which reflected familiarity preferences followed by novelty preferences. This remained stable across age. No link was found between the emergence of perceptual grouping ability and the exposure duration required to elicit grouping. We conclude by stressing the importance of longitudinal studies of infant development in furthering our understanding of human cognition, rather than relying on assumptions from the adult endstate.

A new method for evaluating regional air quality forecasts

A Kriging interpolation method is combined with an object-based evaluation measure to assess the ability of the UK Met Office's dispersion and weather prediction models to predict the evolution of a plume of tracer as it was transported across Europe. The object-based evaluation method, SAL, considers aspects of the Structure, Amplitude and Location of the pollutant field. The SAL method is able to quantify errors in the predicted size and shape of the pollutant plume, through the structure component, the over- or under-prediction of the pollutant concentrations, through the amplitude component, and the position of the pollutant plume, through the location component. The quantitative results of the SAL evaluation are similar for both models and close to a subjective visual inspection of the predictions. A negative structure component for both models, throughout the entire 60 hour plume dispersion simulation, indicates that the modelled plumes are too small and/or too peaked compared to the observed plume at all times. The amplitude component for both models is strongly positive at the start of the simulation, indicating that surface concentrations are over-predicted by both models for the first 24 hours, but modelled concentrations are within a factor of 2 of the observations at later times. Finally, for both models, the location component is small for the first 48 hours after the start of the tracer release, indicating that the modelled plumes are situated close to the observed plume early on in the simulation, but this plume location error grows at later times. The SAL methodology has also been used to identify differences in the transport of pollution in the dispersion and weather prediction models. The convection scheme in the weather prediction model is found to transport more pollution vertically out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere than the dispersion model convection scheme resulting in lower pollutant concentrations near the surface and hence a better forecast for this case study.

Geostatistical analysis of rainfall

Rainfall can be modeled as a spatially correlated random field superimposed on a background mean value; therefore, geostatistical methods are appropriate for the analysis of rain gauge data. Nevertheless, there are certain typical features of these data that must be taken into account to produce useful results, including the generally non-Gaussian mixed distribution, the inhomogeneity and low density of observations, and the temporal and spatial variability of spatial correlation patterns. Many studies show that rigorous geostatistical analysis performs better than other available interpolation techniques for rain gauge data. Important elements are the use of climatological variograms and the appropriate treatment of rainy and nonrainy areas. Benefits of geostatistical analysis for rainfall include ease of estimating areal averages, estimation of uncertainties, and the possibility of using secondary information (e.g., topography). Geostatistical analysis also facilitates the generation of ensembles of rainfall fields that are consistent with a given set of observations, allowing for a more realistic exploration of errors and their propagation in downstream models, such as those used for agricultural or hydrological forecasting. This article provides a review of geostatistical methods used for kriging, exemplified where appropriate by daily rain gauge data from Ethiopia.

WE

Inspired by the dystopian fiction of Yevgeny Zamyatin and the minimal synthesiser music of the early 80s, London-based artist duo Pil and Galia Kollectiv are joined by Victor M. Jakeman and Ruth Angel Edwards to present popular chart hits in new versions, turning songs about 'me' and 'you' into songs about 'us', and replacing the individual 'I' with the collective 'WE'. The performance WE reveals the latent politics of the love song by annihilating its liberal subject; through the simple substitution of the plural for the singular, intimacy becomes a form of collective action and the unique the universal. Sonically, WE follows in the footsteps of bands like The Better Beatles, who sought to improve on the canon of popular music by stripping it bare, even. WE, performed at Kunsthall Oslo, Royal Standard Liverpool and ICA London, is also released on a 10" vinyl record and accompanied by a music video commissioned by Tate Britain for Tate Shots.

Evaluation of satellite-based and model re-analysis rainfall estimates for Uganda

The dependence of much of Africa on rain fed agriculture leads to a high vulnerability to fluctuations in rainfall amount. Hence, accurate monitoring of near-real time rainfall is particularly useful, for example in forewarning possible crop shortfalls in drought-prone areas. Unfortunately, ground based observations are often inadequate. Rainfall estimates from satellite-based algorithms and numerical model outputs can fill this data gap, however rigorous assessment of such estimates is required. In this case, three satellite based products (NOAA-RFE 2.0, GPCP-1DD and TAMSAT) and two numerical model outputs (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) have been evaluated for Uganda in East Africa using a network of 27 rain gauges. The study focuses on the years 2001 to 2005 and considers the main rainy season (February to June). All data sets were converted to the same temporal and spatial scales. Kriging was used for the spatial interpolation of the gauge data. All three satellite products showed similar characteristics and had a high level of skill that exceeded both model outputs. ERA-Interim had a tendency to overestimate whilst ERA-40 consistently underestimated the Ugandan rainfall.

Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola: from ‘has bean’ to supermodel

Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola causes halo blight of the common bean, Phaseolus vulgaris, worldwide and remains difficult to control. Races of the pathogen cause either disease symptoms or a resistant hypersensitive response on a series of differentially reacting bean cultivars. The molecular genetics of the interaction between P. syringae pv. phaseolicola and bean, and the evolution of bacterial virulence, have been investigated in depth and this research has led to important discoveries in the field of plant-microbe interactions. In this review, we discuss several of the areas of study that chart the rise of P. syringae pv. phaseolicola from a common pathogen of bean plants to a molecular plant-pathogen supermodel bacterium. Taxonomy: Bacteria; Proteobacteria, gamma subdivision; order Pseudomonadales; family Pseudomonadaceae; genus Pseudomonas; species Pseudomonas syringae; Genomospecies 2; pathogenic variety phaseolicola. Microbiological properties: Gram-negative, aerobic, motile, rod-shaped, 1.5 µm long, 0.7-1.2 µm in diameter, at least one polar flagellum, optimal temperatures for growth of 25-30 °C, oxidase negative, arginine dihydrolase negative, levan positive and elicits the hypersensitive response on tobacco. Host range: Major bacterial disease of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) in temperate regions and above medium altitudes in the tropics. Natural infections have been recorded on several other legume species, including all members of the tribe Phaseoleae with the exception of Desmodium spp. and Pisum sativum. Disease symptoms: Water-soaked lesions on leaves, pods, stems or petioles, that quickly develop greenish-yellow haloes on leaves at temperatures of less than 23 °C. Infected seeds may be symptomless, or have wrinkled or buttery-yellow patches on the seed coat. Seedling infection is recognized by general chlorosis, stunting and distortion of growth. Epidemiology: Seed borne and disseminated from exudation by water-splash and wind occurring during rainfall. Bacteria invade through wounds and natural openings (notably stomata). Weedy and cultivated alternative hosts may also harbour the bacterium. Disease control: Some measure of control is achieved with copper formulations and streptomycin. Pathogen-free seed and resistant cultivars are recommended. Useful websites: Pseudomonas-plant interaction http://www.pseudomonas-syringae.org/; PseudoDB http://xbase.bham.ac.uk/pseudodb/; Plant Associated and Environmental Microbes Database (PAMDB) http://genome.ppws.vt.edu/cgi-bin/MLST/home.pl; PseudoMLSA Database http://www.uib.es/microbiologiaBD/Welcome.html.

Geostatistical radar-raingauge combination with nonparametric correlograms: methodological considerations and application in Switzerland

Modelling spatial covariance is an essential part of all geostatistical methods. Traditionally, parametric semivariogram models are fit from available data. More recently, it has been suggested to use nonparametric correlograms obtained from spatially complete data fields. Here, both estimation techniques are compared. Nonparametric correlograms are shown to have a substantial negative bias. Nonetheless, when combined with the sample variance of the spatial field under consideration, they yield an estimate of the semivariogram that is unbiased for small lag distances. This justifies the use of this estimation technique in geostatistical applications. Various formulations of geostatistical combination (Kriging) methods are used here for the construction of hourly precipitation grids for Switzerland based on data from a sparse realtime network of raingauges and from a spatially complete radar composite. Two variants of Ordinary Kriging (OK) are used to interpolate the sparse gauge observations. In both OK variants, the radar data are only used to determine the semivariogram model. One variant relies on a traditional parametric semivariogram estimate, whereas the other variant uses the nonparametric correlogram. The variants are tested for three cases and the impact of the semivariogram model on the Kriging prediction is illustrated. For the three test cases, the method using nonparametric correlograms performs equally well or better than the traditional method, and at the same time offers great practical advantages. Furthermore, two variants of Kriging with external drift (KED) are tested, both of which use the radar data to estimate nonparametric correlograms, and as the external drift variable. The first KED variant has been used previously for geostatistical radar-raingauge merging in Catalonia (Spain). The second variant is newly proposed here and is an extension of the first. Both variants are evaluated for the three test cases as well as an extended evaluation period. It is found that both methods yield merged fields of better quality than the original radar field or fields obtained by OK of gauge data. The newly suggested KED formulation is shown to be beneficial, in particular in mountainous regions where the quality of the Swiss radar composite is comparatively low. An analysis of the Kriging variances shows that none of the methods tested here provides a satisfactory uncertainty estimate. A suitable variable transformation is expected to improve this.

British pharmacy professionals’ beliefs and participation in continuing professional development: a review of the literature.

Objectives Continuing professional development (CPD) has potential to be useful in pharmacy revalidation but past uptake and attitudes to CPD in Great Britain (GB) need to be mapped. This review examines published literature to chart the participation and beliefs of pharmacy professionals towards CPD in GB in a decade that had seen a formal transition from continuing education to CPD. Methods A comprehensive review of the published literature was conducted to identify studies of the uptake of, or attitudes towards, CPD cross different sectors of pharmacy in GB from 2000 to 2010. Key findings Twenty-two studies were included and analysed, including 13 research papers, six conference papers, two news items reporting survey outcomes and one commissioned study. Eight barriers to CPD were identified as: time, financial costs and resource issues, understanding of CPD, facilitation and support for CPD, motivation and interest in CPD, attitudes towards compulsory CPD, system constraints, and technical problems. Pharmacy professionals on the whole agreed with the principle of engaging with CPD but there was little evidence to suggest widespread and wholehearted acceptance and uptake of CPD, essential for revalidation. Conclusions If CPD is to succeed, people's beliefs and attitudes must be addressed by recognising and modifying perceived barriers through a combination of regulatory, professional, work-related and personal channels. A number of recommendations are made. Direct experience of effective CPD in the absence of perceived barriers could impact on personal development, career development and patient benefit thus strengthening personal beliefs in the value of CPD in an iterative manner.

British pharmacy professionals' beliefs and participation in continuing professional development: a review of the literature

Objectives:  Continuing professional development (CPD) has potential to be useful in pharmacy revalidation but past uptake and attitudes to CPD in Great Britain (GB) need to be mapped. This review examines published literature to chart the participation and beliefs of pharmacy professionals towards CPD in GB in a decade that had seen a formal transition from continuing education to CPD. Methods:  A comprehensive review of the published literature was conducted to identify studies of the uptake of, or attitudes towards, CPD cross different sectors of pharmacy in GB from 2000 to 2010. Key findings:  Twenty-two studies were included and analysed, including 13 research papers, six conference papers, two news items reporting survey outcomes and one commissioned study. Eight barriers to CPD were identified as: time, financial costs and resource issues, understanding of CPD, facilitation and support for CPD, motivation and interest in CPD, attitudes towards compulsory CPD, system constraints, and technical problems. Pharmacy professionals on the whole agreed with the principle of engaging with CPD but there was little evidence to suggest widespread and wholehearted acceptance and uptake of CPD, essential for revalidation. Conclusions:  If CPD is to succeed, people's beliefs and attitudes must be addressed by recognising and modifying perceived barriers through a combination of regulatory, professional, work-related and personal channels. A number of recommendations are made. Direct experience of effective CPD in the absence of perceived barriers could impact on personal development, career development and patient benefit thus strengthening personal beliefs in the value of CPD in an iterative manner.

An investigation into the pathogenic properties of Escherichia coli strains BLR, BL21, DH5 alpha and EQ1

Aims: To examine Escherichia coli strains EQ1, DH5 alpha, BLR and BL21 for known pathogenic mechanisms. Methods and Results: Using specific DNA probes, the strains were shown not to carry the genes encoding invasion, various adhesion phenotypes or expression of a range of enterotoxins. The strains were unable to express long-chain lipopolysaccharide and were susceptible to the effects of serum complement. Using a BALB/c mouse model, the strains were shown to be unable to survive in selected tissues or to persist in the mouse gut. Using a chick model, strains EQ1, BLR and BL21 invaded livers but not spleens; only strain EQ1 persisted in the chick gut. In Merino sheep, only strain EQ1 was detected 6 d postinfection. Conclusions: Escherichia coli strains EQ1, DH5 alpha, BLR and BL21 did not carry the well-recognized pathogenic mechanisms required by strains of E. coli causing the majority of enteric infections. Significance and Impact of the Study: Escherichia coli strains EQ1, DH5 alpha, BLR and BL21 were considered to be non-pathogenic and unlikely to survive in host tissues and cause disease.

Evolution of discrimination in populations at equilibrium between selfishness and altruism

Where there is genetically based variation in selfishness and altruism, as in man, altruists with an innate ability to recognise and thereby only help their altruistic relatives may evolve. Here we use diploid population genetic models to chart the evolution of genetically-based discrimination in populations initially in stable equilibrium between altruism and selfishness. The initial stable equilibria occur because help is assumed subject to diminishing returns. Similar results were obtained whether we used a model with two independently inherited loci, one controlling altruism the other discrimination, or a one locus model with three alleles. The latter is the opposite extreme to the first model, and can be thought of as involving complete linkage between two loci on the same chromosome. The introduction of discrimination reduced the benefits obtained by selfish individuals, more so as the number of discriminators increased, and selfishness was eventually eliminated in some cases. In others selfishness persisted and the evolutionary outcome was a stable equilibrium involving selfish individuals and both discriminating and non-discriminating altruists. Heritable variation in selfishness, altruism and discrimination is predicted to be particularly evident among full sibs. The suggested coexistence of these three genetic dispositions could explain widespread interest within human social groups as to who will and who will not help others. These predictions merit experimental and observational investigation by primatologists, anthropologists and psychologists. Keywords: Population genetics, Diploid, Heritability, Prosocial, Behaviour genetics

Ontology modeling for generation of clinical pathways

Purpose: Increasing costs of health care, fuelled by demand for high quality, cost-effective healthcare has drove hospitals to streamline their patient care delivery systems. One such systematic approach is the adaptation of Clinical Pathways (CP) as a tool to increase the quality of healthcare delivery. However, most organizations still rely on are paper-based pathway guidelines or specifications, which have limitations in process management and as a result can influence patient safety outcomes. In this paper, we present a method for generating clinical pathways based on organizational semiotics by capturing knowledge from syntactic, semantic and pragmatic to social level. Design/methodology/approach: The proposed modeling approach to generation of CPs adopts organizational semiotics and enables the generation of semantically rich representation of CP knowledge. Semantic Analysis Method (SAM) is applied to explicitly represent the semantics of the concepts, their relationships and patterns of behavior in terms of an ontology chart. Norm Analysis Method (NAM) is adopted to identify and formally specify patterns of behavior and rules that govern the actions identified on the ontology chart. Information collected during semantic and norm analysis is integrated to guide the generation of CPs using best practice represented in BPMN thus enabling the automation of CP. Findings: This research confirms the necessity of taking into consideration social aspects in designing information systems and automating CP. The complexity of healthcare processes can be best tackled by analyzing stakeholders, which we treat as social agents, their goals and patterns of action within the agent network. Originality/value: The current modeling methods describe CPs from a structural aspect comprising activities, properties and interrelationships. However, these methods lack a mechanism to describe possible patterns of human behavior and the conditions under which the behavior will occur. To overcome this weakness, a semiotic approach to generation of clinical pathway is introduced. The CP generated from SAM together with norms will enrich the knowledge representation of the domain through ontology modeling, which allows the recognition of human responsibilities and obligations and more importantly, the ultimate power of decision making in exceptional circumstances.