Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

Evolving graphs: dynamical models, inverse problems and propagation

Applications such as neuroscience, telecommunication, online social networking, transport and retail trading give rise to connectivity patterns that change over time. In this work, we address the resulting need for network models and computational algorithms that deal with dynamic links. We introduce a new class of evolving range-dependent random graphs that gives a tractable framework for modelling and simulation. We develop a spectral algorithm for calibrating a set of edge ranges from a sequence of network snapshots and give a proof of principle illustration on some neuroscience data. We also show how the model can be used computationally and analytically to investigate the scenario where an evolutionary process, such as an epidemic, takes place on an evolving network. This allows us to study the cumulative effect of two distinct types of dynamics.

Effect of mycorrhizae and pH change at the root-soil interface on phosphorus uptake by Sorghum using a rhizocylinder technique

Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) was grown for 40 days in. rhizocylinder (a growth container which permitted access to rh zosphere and nonrhizosphere soil), in two soils of low P status. Soils were fertilized with different rates of ammonium and nitrate and supplemented with 40 mg phosphorus (P) kg(-1) and inoculated with either Glomus mosseae (Nicol. and Gerd.) or nonmycorrhizal root inoculum.. N-serve (2 mg kg(-1)) was added to prevent nitrification. At harvest, soil from around the roots was collected at distances of 0-5, 5-10, and 10-20 mm from the root core which was 35 mm diameter. Sorghum plants, with and without mycorrhiza, grew larger with NH4+ than with NO3- application. After measuring soil pH, 4 3 suspensions of the same sample were titrated against 0.01 M HCl or 0.01 M NaOH until soil pH reached the nonplanted pH level. The acid or base requirement for each sample was calculated as mmol H+ or OFF kg(-1) soil. The magnitude of liberated acid or base depended on the form and rate of nitrogen and soil type. When the plant root was either uninfected or infected with mycorrhiza., soil pH changes extended up to 5 mm from the root core surface. In both soils, ammonium as an N source resulted in lower soil pH than nitrate. Mycorrhizal (VAM) inoculation did not enhance this difference. In mycorrhizal inoculated soil, P depletion extended tip to 20 mm from the root surface. In non-VAM inoculated soil P depletion extended up to 10 mm from the root surface and remained unchanged at greater distances. In the mycorrhizal inoculated soils, the contribution of the 0-5 mm soil zone to P uptake was greater than the core soil, which reflects the hyphal contribution to P supply. Nitrogen (N) applications that caused acidification increased P uptake because of increased demand; there is no direct evidence that the increased uptake was due to acidity increasing the solubility of P although this may have been a minor effect.

The use of FT-IR as a screening technique for organic residue analysis of archaeological samples

A range of archaeological samples have been examined using FT-IR spectroscopy. These include suspected coprolite samples from the Neolithic site of Catalhoyuk in Turkey, pottery samples from the Roman site of Silchester, UK and the Bronze Age site of Gatas, Spain and unidentified black residues on pottery sherds from the Roman sites of Springhead and Cambourne, UK. For coprolite samples the aim of FT-IR analysis is identification. Identification of coprolites in the field is based on their distinct orange colour; however, such visual identifications can often be misleading due to their similarity with deposits such as ochre and clay. For pottery the aim is to screen those samples that might contain high levels of organic residues which would be suitable for GC-MS analysis. The experiments have shown coprolites to have distinctive spectra, containing strong peaks from calcite, phosphate and quartz; the presence of phosphorus may be confirmed by SEM-EDX analysis. Pottery containing organic residues of plant and animal origin has also been shown to generally display strong phosphate peaks. FT-IR has distinguished between organic resin and non-organic compositions for the black residues, with differences also being seen between organic samples that have the same physical appearance. Further analysis by CC-MS has confirmed the identification of the coprolites through the presence of coprostanol and bile acids, and shows that the majority of organic pottery residues are either fatty acids or mono- or di-acylglycerols from foodstuffs, or triterpenoid resin compounds exposed to high temperatures. One suspected resin sample was shown to contain no organic residues. and it is seen that resin samples with similar physical appearances have different chemical compositions. FT-IR is proposed as a quick and cheap method of screening archaeological samples before subjecting them to the more expensive and time-consuming method of GC-MS. This will eliminate inorganic samples such as clays and ochre from CC-MS analysis, and will screen those samples which are most likely to have a high concentration of preserved organic residues. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inverse amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex responses to surprised faces

Here we show inverse fMRI activation patterns in amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) depending upon whether subjects interpreted surprised facial expressions positively or negatively. More negative interpretations of surprised faces were associated with greater signal changes in the right ventral amygdala, while more positive interpretations were associated with greater signal changes in the ventral mPFC. Accordingly, signal change within these two areas was inversely correlated. Thus, individual differences in the judgment of surprised faces are related to a systematic inverse relationship between amygdala and mPFC activity, a circuitry that the animal literature suggests is critical to the assessment of stimuli that predict potential positive vs negative outcomes.

A survey on sampling and probe methods for inverse problems

The goal of the review is to provide a state-of-the-art survey on sampling and probe methods for the solution of inverse problems. Further, a configuration approach to some of the problems will be presented. We study the concepts and analytical results for several recent sampling and probe methods. We will give an introduction to the basic idea behind each method using a simple model problem and then provide some general formulation in terms of particular configurations to study the range of the arguments which are used to set up the method. This provides a novel way to present the algorithms and the analytic arguments for their investigation in a variety of different settings. In detail we investigate the probe method (Ikehata), linear sampling method (Colton-Kirsch) and the factorization method (Kirsch), singular sources Method (Potthast), no response test (Luke-Potthast), range test (Kusiak, Potthast and Sylvester) and the enclosure method (Ikehata) for the solution of inverse acoustic and electromagnetic scattering problems. The main ideas, approaches and convergence results of the methods are presented. For each method, we provide a historical survey about applications to different situations.

Unification of the probe and singular sources methods for the inverse boundary value problem by the no-response test

In this article, we use the no-response test idea, introduced in Luke and Potthast (2003) and Potthast (Preprint) and the inverse obstacle problem, to identify the interface of the discontinuity of the coefficient gamma of the equation del (.) gamma(x)del + c(x) with piecewise regular gamma and bounded function c(x). We use infinitely many Cauchy data as measurement and give a reconstructive method to localize the interface. We will base this multiwave version of the no-response test on two different proofs. The first one contains a pointwise estimate as used by the singular sources method. The second one is built on an energy (or an integral) estimate which is the basis of the probe method. As a conclusion of this, the probe and the singular sources methods are equivalent regarding their convergence and the no-response test can be seen as a unified framework for these methods. As a further contribution, we provide a formula to reconstruct the values of the jump of gamma(x), x is an element of partial derivative D at the boundary. A second consequence of this formula is that the blow-up rate of the indicator functions of the probe and singular sources methods at the interface is given by the order of the singularity of the fundamental solution.

A singular vector perspective of 4D-Var: Filtering and interpolation

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) combines the information from a time sequence of observations with the model dynamics and a background state to produce an analysis. In this paper, a new mathematical insight into the behaviour of 4D-Var is gained from an extension of concepts that are used to assess the qualitative information content of observations in satellite retrievals. It is shown that the 4D-Var analysis increments can be written as a linear combination of the singular vectors of a matrix which is a function of both the observational and the forecast model systems. This formulation is used to consider the filtering and interpolating aspects of 4D-Var using idealized case-studies based on a simple model of baroclinic instability. The results of the 4D-Var case-studies exhibit the reconstruction of the state in unobserved regions as a consequence of the interpolation of observations through time. The results also exhibit the filtering of components with small spatial scales that correspond to noise, and the filtering of structures in unobserved regions. The singular vector perspective gives a very clear view of this filtering and interpolating by the 4D-Var algorithm and shows that the appropriate specification of the a priori statistics is vital to extract the largest possible amount of useful information from the observations. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society