Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Becoming a written word: eye movements reveal order of acquisition effects following incidental exposure to new words during silent reading

We know that from mid-childhood onwards most new words are learned implicitly via reading; however, most word learning studies have taught novel items explicitly. We examined incidental word learning during reading by focusing on the well-documented finding that words which are acquired early in life are processed more quickly than those acquired later. Novel words were embedded in meaningful sentences and were presented to adult readers early (day 1) or later (day 2) during a five-day exposure phase. At test adults read the novel words in semantically neutral sentences. Participants’ eye movements were monitored throughout exposure and test. Adults also completed a surprise memory test in which they had to match each novel word with its definition. Results showed a decrease in reading times for all novel words over exposure, and significantly longer total reading times at test for early than late novel words. Early-presented novel words were also remembered better in the offline test. Our results show that order of presentation influences processing time early in the course of acquiring a new word, consistent with partial and incremental growth in knowledge occurring as a function of an individual’s experience with each word.

Ratings of age of acquisition of 299 words across 25 languages: is there a cross-linguistic order of words?

We present a new set of subjective age-of-acquisition (AoA) ratings for 299 words (158 nouns, 141 verbs) in 25 languages from five language families (Afro-Asiatic: Semitic languages; Altaic: one Turkic language: Indo-European: Baltic, Celtic, Germanic, Hellenic, Slavic, and Romance languages; Niger-Congo: one Bantu language; Uralic: Finnic and Ugric languages). Adult native speakers reported the age at which they had learned each word. We present a comparison of the AoA ratings across all languages by contrasting them in pairs. This comparison shows a consistency in the orders of ratings across the 25 languages. The data were then analyzed (1) to ascertain how the demographic characteristics of the participants influenced AoA estimations and (2) to assess differences caused by the exact form of the target question (when did you learn vs. when do children learn this word); (3) to compare the ratings obtained in our study to those of previous studies; and (4) to assess the validity of our study by comparison with quasi-objective AoA norms derived from the MacArthur–Bates Communicative Development Inventories (MB-CDI). All 299 words were judged as being acquired early (mostly before the age of 6 years). AoA ratings were associated with the raters’ social or language status, but not with the raters’ age or education. Parents reported words as being learned earlier, and bilinguals reported learning them later. Estimations of the age at which children learn the words revealed significantly lower ratings of AoA. Finally, comparisons with previous AoA and MB-CDI norms support the validity of the present estimations. Our AoA ratings are available for research or other purposes.

Comparing correlations of continuous observations from two independent populations using a sequential approach

A sequential study design generally makes more efficient use of available information than a fixed sample counterpart of equal power. This feature is gradually being exploited by researchers in genetic and epidemiological investigations that utilize banked biological resources and in studies where time, cost and ethics are prominent considerations. Recent work in this area has focussed on the sequential analysis of matched case-control studies with a dichotomous trait. In this paper, we extend the sequential approach to a comparison of the associations within two independent groups of paired continuous observations. Such a comparison is particularly relevant in familial studies of phenotypic correlation using twins. We develop a sequential twin method based on the intraclass correlation and show that use of sequential methodology can lead to a substantial reduction in the number of observations without compromising the study error rates. Additionally, our approach permits straightforward allowance for other explanatory factors in the analysis. We illustrate our method in a sequential heritability study of dysplasia that allows for the effect of body mass index and compares monozygotes with pairs of singleton sisters. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Floral morphology and development in quillajaceae and surianaceae (Fabales), the species-poor relatives of leguminosae and polygalaceae

Background and Aims: Molecular phylogenies have suggested a new circumscription for Fabales to include Leguminosae, Quillajaceae, Surianaceae and Polygalaceae. However, recent attempts to reconstruct the interfamilial relationships of the order have resulted in several alternative hypotheses, including a sister relationship between Quillajaceae and Surianaceae, the two species-poor families of Fabales. Here, floral morphology and ontogeny of these two families are investigated to explore evidence of a potential relationship between them. Floral traits are discussed with respect to early radiation in the order. Methods: Floral buds of representatives of Quillajaceae and Surianaceae were dissected and observed using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. Key Results Quillajaceae and Surianaceae possess some common traits, such as inflorescence morphology and perianth initiation, but development and organization of their reproductive whorls differ. In Quillaja, initiation of the diplostemonous androecium is unidirectional, overlapping with the petal primordia. In contrast, Suriana is obdiplostemonous, and floral organ initiation is simultaneous. Independent initiation of five carpels is common to both Quillaja and Suriana, but subsequent development differs; the antesepalous carpels of Quillaja become fused proximally and exhibit two rows of ovules, and in Suriana the gynoecium is apocarpous, gynobasic, with antepetalous biovulate carpels. Conclusions: Differences in the reproductive development and organization of Quillajaceae and Surianaceae cast doubt on their potential sister relationship. Instead, Quillaja resembles Leguminosae in some floral traits, a hypothesis not suggested by molecular-based phylogenies. Despite implicit associations of zygomorphy with species-rich clades and actinomorphy with species-poor families in Fabales, this correlation sometimes fails due to high variation in floral symmetry. Studies considering specific derived clades and reproductive biology could address more precise hypotheses of key innovation and differential diversification in the order.

DNA variation in a 13-Mb region including the F9 gene: inferring the genealogical history and causal role of a hemophilia B mutation (IVS 5+13 A -> G)

About 5.5% of all UK hemophilia B patients have the base substitution IVS 5+13 A-->G as the only change in their factor (F)IX gene (F9). This generates a novel donor splice site which fits the consensus better than the normal intron 5 donor splice. Use of the novel splice site should result in a missense mutation followed by the abnormal addition of four amino acids to the patients' FIX. In order to explain the prevalence of this mutation, its genealogical history is examined. Analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphism in the 21 reference UK individuals (from different families) with the above mutation showed identical haplotypes in 19 while two differed from the rest and from each other. In order to investigate the history of the mutation and to verify that it had occurred independently more than once, the sequence variation in 1.5-kb segments scattered over a 13-Mb region including F9 was examined in 18 patients and 15 controls. This variation was then analyzed with a recently developed Bayesian approach that reconstructs the genealogy of the gene investigated while providing evidence of independent mutations that contribute disconnected branches to the genealogical tree. The method also provides minimum estimates of the age of the mutation inherited by the members of coherent trees. This revealed that 17 or 18 mutant genes descend from a founder who probably lived 450 years ago, while one patient carries an independent mutation. The independent recurrence of the IVS5+13 A-->G mutation strongly supports the conclusion that it is the cause of these patients' mild hemophilia.

Consequences of N,C,N '- and C,N,N '-coordination modes on electronic and photophysical properties of cyclometalated aryl ruthenium(II) complexes

The effects of isoelectronic replacement of a neutral nitrogen donor atom by an anionic carbon atom in terpyridine ruthenium(II) complexes on the electronic and photophysical properties of the resulting N,C,N'- and C,N,N'-cyclometalated aryl ruthenium(II) complexes were investigated. To this end, a series of complexes was prepared either with ligands containing exclusively nitrogen donor atoms, that is, [Ru(R-1-tpy)(R-2-tpy)](2+) (R-1, R-2 = H, CO2Et), or bearing either one N,C,N'- or C,N,N'-cyclometalated ligand and one tpy ligand, that is, [Ru(R-1-(NCN)-C-Lambda-N-Lambda)(R-2-tpy)](+) and [Ru(R-1-(CNN)-N-Lambda-N-Lambda)(R-2-tpy)](+), respectively. Single-crystal X-ray structure determinations showed that cyclometalation does not significantly alter the overall geometry of the complexes but does change the bond lengths around the ruthenium(II) center, especially the nitrogen-to-ruthenium bond length trans to the carbanion. Substitution of either of the ligands with electron-withdrawing ester functionalities fine-tuned the electronic properties and resulted in the presence of an IR probe. Using trends obtained from redox potentials, emission energies, IR spectroelectrochemical responses, and the character of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbitals from DFT studies, it is shown that the first reduction process and luminescence are associated with the ester-substituted C,N,N'-cyclometalated ligand in [Ru(EtO2C-(CNN)-N-Lambda-N-Lambda)(tpy)](+). Cyclometalation in an N,C,N'-bonding motif changed the energetic order of the ruthenium d(zx), d(yz), and d(xy) orbitals. The red-shifted absorption in the N,C,N'-cyclometalated complexes is assigned to MLCT transitions to the tpy ligand. The red shift observed upon introduction of the ester moiety is associated with an increase in intensity of low-energy transitions, rather than a red shift of the main transition. Cyclometalation in the C,N,N'-binding motif also red-shifts the absorption, but the corresponding transition is associated with both ligand types. Luminescence of the cyclometalated complexes is relatively independent of the mode of cyclometalation, obeying the energy gap law within each individual series.

Analysis of second messenger pathways stimulated by different chemokines acting at the chemokine receptor

The chemokine receptor, CCR5, responds to several chemokines leading to changes in activity in several signalling pathways. Here, we investigated the ability of different chemokines to provide differential activation of pathways. The effects of five CC chemokines acting at CCR5 were investigated for their ability to inhibit forskolin- stimulated 3'-5'-cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) accumulation and to stimulate Ca2+ mobilisation. in Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells expressing CCR5. Macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha (D26A) (MIP-1 alpha (D26A), CCL3 (D26A)), regulated on activation, normal T-cell expressed and secreted (RANTES, CCLS), MIP-1 beta (CCL4) and monocyte chemoattractant protein 2 (MCP-2, CCL8) were able to inhibit forskolin -stimulated CAMP accumulation, whilst MCP-4 (CCL13) could not elicit a response. CCL3 (D26A), CCL4, CCLS, CCL8 and CCL13 were able to stimulate Ca2+ mobilisation. through CCRS, although CCL3 (D26A) and CCL5 exhibited biphasic concentration-response curves. The Ca2+ responses induced by CCL4, CCL5, CCL8 and CCL13 were abolished by pertussis toxin, whereas the response to CCL3 (D26A) was only partially inhibited by pertussis toxin, indicating G(i/o)-independent signalling induced by this chemokine. Although the rank order of potency of chemokines was similar between the two assays, certain chemokines displayed different pharmacological profiles in cAMP inhibition and Ca2+ mobilisation assays. For instance, whilst CCL13 could not inhibit forskolin-stimulated cAMP accumulation, this chemokine was able to induce Ca2+ mobilisation via CCR5. It is concluded that different chemokines acting at CCR5 can induce different pharmacological responses, which may account for the broad spectrum of chemokines that can act at CCRS. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A method for estimating the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate from a vertically pointing Doppler lidar, and independent evaluation from balloon-borne in situ measurements

A method of estimating dissipation rates from a vertically pointing Doppler lidar with high temporal and spatial resolution has been evaluated by comparison with independent measurements derived from a balloon-borne sonic anemometer. This method utilizes the variance of the mean Doppler velocity from a number of sequential samples and requires an estimate of the horizontal wind speed. The noise contribution to the variance can be estimated from the observed signal-to-noise ratio and removed where appropriate. The relative size of the noise variance to the observed variance provides a measure of the confidence in the retrieval. Comparison with in situ dissipation rates derived from the balloon-borne sonic anemometer reveal that this particular Doppler lidar is capable of retrieving dissipation rates over a range of at least three orders of magnitude. This method is most suitable for retrieval of dissipation rates within the convective well-mixed boundary layer where the scales of motion that the Doppler lidar probes remain well within the inertial subrange. Caution must be applied when estimating dissipation rates in more quiescent conditions. For the particular Doppler lidar described here, the selection of suitably short integration times will permit this method to be applicable in such situations but at the expense of accuracy in the Doppler velocity estimates. The two case studies presented here suggest that, with profiles every 4 s, reliable estimates of ϵ can be derived to within at least an order of magnitude throughout almost all of the lowest 2 km and, in the convective boundary layer, to within 50%. Increasing the integration time for individual profiles to 30 s can improve the accuracy substantially but potentially confines retrievals to within the convective boundary layer. Therefore, optimization of certain instrument parameters may be required for specific implementations.

Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water

Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (∼10–100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface‐subsurface interactions due to fine‐scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land‐atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 109 unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a “grand challenge” to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.

Reaping the benefits: science and the sustainable intensification of global agriculture

Food security is one of this century’s key global challenges. By 2050 the world will require increased crop production in order to feed its predicted 9 billion people. This must be done in the face of changing consumption patterns, the impacts of climate change and the growing scarcity of water and land. Crop production methods will also have to sustain the environment, preserve natural resources and support livelihoods of farmers and rural populations around the world. There is a pressing need for the ‘sustainable intensifi cation’ of global agriculture in which yields are increased without adverse environmental impact and without the cultivation of more land. Addressing the need to secure a food supply for the whole world requires an urgent international effort with a clear sense of long-term challenges and possibilities. Biological science, especially publicly funded science, must play a vital role in the sustainable intensifi cation of food crop production. The UK has a responsibility and the capacity to take a leading role in providing a range of scientifi c solutions to mitigate potential food shortages. This will require signifi cant funding of cross-disciplinary science for food security. The constraints on food crop production are well understood, but differ widely across regions. The availability of water and good soils are major limiting factors. Signifi cant losses in crop yields occur due to pests, diseases and weed competition. The effects of climate change will further exacerbate the stresses on crop plants, potentially leading to dramatic yield reductions. Maintaining and enhancing the diversity of crop genetic resources is vital to facilitate crop breeding and thereby enhance the resilience of food crop production. Addressing these constraints requires technologies and approaches that are underpinned by good science. Some of these technologies build on existing knowledge, while others are completely radical approaches, drawing on genomics and high-throughput analysis. Novel research methods have the potential to contribute to food crop production through both genetic improvement of crops and new crop and soil management practices. Genetic improvements to crops can occur through breeding or genetic modifi cation to introduce a range of desirable traits. The application of genetic methods has the potential to refi ne existing crops and provide incremental improvements. These methods also have the potential to introduce radical and highly signifi cant improvements to crops by increasing photosynthetic effi ciency, reducing the need for nitrogen or other fertilisers and unlocking some of the unrealised potential of crop genomes. The science of crop management and agricultural practice also needs to be given particular emphasis as part of a food security grand challenge. These approaches can address key constraints in existing crop varieties and can be applied widely. Current approaches to maximising production within agricultural systems are unsustainable; new methodologies that utilise all elements of the agricultural system are needed, including better soil management and enhancement and exploitation of populations of benefi cial soil microbes. Agronomy, soil science and agroecology—the relevant sciences—have been neglected in recent years. Past debates about the use of new technologies for agriculture have tended to adopt an either/or approach, emphasising the merits of particular agricultural systems or technological approaches and the downsides of others. This has been seen most obviously with respect to genetically modifi ed (GM) crops, the use of pesticides and the arguments for and against organic modes of production. These debates have failed to acknowledge that there is no technological panacea for the global challenge of sustainable and secure global food production. There will always be trade-offs and local complexities. This report considers both new crop varieties and appropriate agroecological crop and soil management practices and adopts an inclusive approach. No techniques or technologies should be ruled out. Global agriculture demands a diversity of approaches, specific to crops, localities, cultures and other circumstances. Such diversity demands that the breadth of relevant scientific enquiry is equally diverse, and that science needs to be combined with social, economic and political perspectives. In addition to supporting high-quality science, the UK needs to maintain and build its capacity to innovate, in collaboration with international and national research centres. UK scientists and agronomists have in the past played a leading role in disciplines relevant to agriculture, but training in agricultural sciences and related topics has recently suffered from a lack of policy attention and support. Agricultural extension services, connecting farmers with new innovations, have been similarly neglected in the UK and elsewhere. There is a major need to review the support for and provision of extension services, particularly in developing countries. The governance of innovation for agriculture needs to maximise opportunities for increasing production, while at the same time protecting societies, economies and the environment from negative side effects. Regulatory systems need to improve their assessment of benefits. Horizon scanning will ensure proactive consideration of technological options by governments. Assessment of benefi ts, risks and uncertainties should be seen broadly, and should include the wider impacts of new technologies and practices on economies and societies. Public and stakeholder dialogue—with NGOs, scientists and farmers in particular—needs to be a part of all governance frameworks.

A collagen-like peptide stimulates tyrosine phosphorylation of syk and phospholipase C gamma2 in platelets independent of the integrin alpha2beta1.

Activation of platelets by collagen is mediated through a tyrosine kinase-dependent pathway that is associated with phosphorylation of the Fc receptor gamma chain, the tyrosine kinase syk, and phospholipase C gamma2 (PLC gamma2). We recently described a collagen-related triple-helical peptide (CRP) with the sequence GCP*(GPP*)GCP*G (single letter amino acid code: P* = hydroxyproline; Morton et al, Biochem J306:337, 1995). The cross-linked peptide is a potent stimulus of platelet activation but, unlike collagen, does not support alpha2beta1-mediated, Mg2+-dependent adhesion, suggesting that its action is independent of the integrin alpha2beta1. This finding suggests the existence of a platelet receptor other than alpha2beta1 that underlies activation. In the present study, we show that CRP stimulates tyrosine phosphorylation of the same pattern of proteins in platelets as collagen, including syk and PLC gamma2. Protein tyrosine phosphorylation induced by CRP is not altered in the absence of Mg2+ or the presence of monoclonal antibodies (MoAbs) to the integrin alpha2beta1 (MoAb 6F1 and MoAb 13), conditions that prevent the interaction of collagen with the integrin. In contrast, phosphorylation of syk and PLC gamma2 by collagen is partially reduced by MoAb 6F1 and MoAb 13 or by removal of Mg2+. This may reflect a direct role of alpha2beta1 in collagen-induced signaling events or an indirect role in which the integrin facilitates the binding of collagen to its signaling receptor. The results show an alpha2beta1-independent pathway of platelet activation by CRP that involves phosphorylation of syk and PLC gamma2. This pathway appears to contribute to platelet activation by collagen.

Likelihood-free estimation of model evidence

Statistical methods of inference typically require the likelihood function to be computable in a reasonable amount of time. The class of “likelihood-free” methods termed Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is able to eliminate this requirement, replacing the evaluation of the likelihood with simulation from it. Likelihood-free methods have gained in efficiency and popularity in the past few years, following their integration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) in order to better explore the parameter space. They have been applied primarily to estimating the parameters of a given model, but can also be used to compare models. Here we present novel likelihood-free approaches to model comparison, based upon the independent estimation of the evidence of each model under study. Key advantages of these approaches over previous techniques are that they allow the exploitation of MCMC or SMC algorithms for exploring the parameter space, and that they do not require a sampler able to mix between models. We validate the proposed methods using a simple exponential family problem before providing a realistic problem from human population genetics: the comparison of different demographic models based upon genetic data from the Y chromosome.

Open solar flux estimates from near-Earth measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field: comparison of the first two perihelion passes of the Ulysses spacecraft

Results from all phases of the orbits of the Ulysses spacecraft have shown that the magnitude of the radial component of the heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude. This result allows the use of near- Earth observations to compute the total open flux of the Sun. For example, using satellite observations of the interplanetary magnetic field, the average open solar flux was shown to have risen by 29% between 1963 and 1987 and using the aa geomagnetic index it was found to have doubled during the 20th century. It is therefore important to assess fully the accuracy of the result and to check that it applies to all phases of the solar cycle. The first perihelion pass of the Ulysses spacecraft was close to sunspot minimum, and recent data from the second perihelion pass show that the result also holds at solar maximum. The high level of correlation between the open flux derived from the various methods strongly supports the Ulysses discovery that the radial field component is independent of latitude. We show here that the errors introduced into open solar flux estimates by assuming that the heliospheric field’s radial component is independent of latitude are similar for the two passes and are of order 25% for daily values, falling to 5% for averaging timescales of 27 days or greater. We compare here the results of four methods for estimating the open solar flux with results from the first and second perehelion passes by Ulysses. We find that the errors are lowest (1–5% for averages over the entire perehelion passes lasting near 320 days), for near-Earth methods, based on either interplanetary magnetic field observations or the aa geomagnetic activity index. The corresponding errors for the Solanki et al. (2000) model are of the order of 9–15% and for the PFSS method, based on solar magnetograms, are of the order of 13–47%. The model of Solanki et al. is based on the continuity equation of open flux, and uses the sunspot number to quantify the rate of open flux emergence. It predicts that the average open solar flux has been decreasing since 1987, as Correspondence to: M. Lockwood (m.lockwood@rl.ac.uk) is observed in the variation of all the estimates of the open flux. This decline combines with the solar cycle variation to produce an open flux during the second (sunspot maximum) perihelion pass of Ulysses which is only slightly larger than that during the first (sunspot minimum) perihelion pass.