A lightweight technique for assessing risks in requirements analysis

A simple and practical technique for assessing the risks, that is, the potential for error, and consequent loss, in software system development, acquired during a requirements engineering phase is described. The technique uses a goal-based requirements analysis as a framework to identify and rate a set of key issues in order to arrive at estimates of the feasibility and adequacy of the requirements. The technique is illustrated and how it has been applied to a real systems development project is shown. How problems in this project could have been identified earlier is shown, thereby avoiding costly additional work and unhappy users.

Analysis of the eyes formed in simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows

The structure and size of the eyes generated in numerically simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows have been studied. A primitive-equation numerical model simulated systems in which the structures of the eyes formed were consistent with available observations. Whilst the tropical cyclone eyes generated were usually rapidly rotating, it appeared impossible for an eye formed in a system with a polar environment to develop this type of structure. The polar low eyes were found to be unable to warm through the subsidence of air with high values of potential temperature, as the environment was approximately statically neutral. Factors affecting the size of the eye were investigated through a series of controlled experiments. In mature tropical cyclone systems the size of the eye was insensitive to small changes in initial conditions, surface friction and latent and sensible heating from the ocean. In contrast, the eye size was strongly dependent on these parameters in the mature polar lows. Consistent with the findings, a mechanism is proposed in which the size of the eye in simulated polar lows is controlled by the strength of subsidence within it.

Cannabis constituents modulate ∆9-tetrahydrocannabinol-induced hyperphagia in rats

Rationale The hyperphagic effect of ∆9-tetrahydrocannabinol (∆9THC) in humans and rodents is well known. However, no studies have investigated the importance of ∆9THC composition and any influence other non-∆9THC cannabinoids present in Cannabis sativa may have. We therefore compared the effects of purified ∆9THC, synthetic ∆9THC (dronabinol), and ∆9THC botanical drug substance (∆9THC-BDS), a ∆9THC-rich standardized extract comparable in composition to recreationally used cannabis. Methods Adult male rats were orally dosed with purified ∆9THC, synthetic ∆9THC, or ∆9THC-BDS, matched for ∆9THC content (0.34–2.68 mg/kg). Prior to dosing, subjects were satiated, and food intake was recorded following ∆9THC administration. Data were then analyzed in terms of hourly intake and meal patterns. Results All three ∆9THC substances tested induced significant hyperphagic effects at doses ≥0.67 mg/kg. These effects included increased intake during hour one, a shorter latency to onset of feeding and a greater duration and consumption in the first meal. However, while some differences in vehicle control intakes were observed, there were significant, albeit subtle, differences in pattern of effects between the purified ∆9THC and ∆9THC-BDS. Conclusion All ∆9THC compounds displayed classical ∆9THC effects on feeding, significantly increasing short-term intake whilst decreasing latency to the first meal. We propose that the subtle adjustment to the meal patterns seen between the purified ∆9THC and ∆9THC-BDS are due to non-∆9THC cannabinoids present in ∆9THC-BDS. These compounds and other non-cannabinoids have an emerging and diverse pharmacology and can modulate ∆9THC-induced hyperphagia, making them worth further investigation for their therapeutic potential.

Alternative methodologies - stretching the in vitro box

Current gas-based in vitro evaluation systems are extremely powerful research techniques. However they have the potential to generate a great deal more than simple fermentation dynamics. Details from four experiments are presented in which adaptation, and novel application, of an in vitro system allowed widely differing objectives to be examined. In the first two studies, complement methodologies were utilised. In such assays, an activity or outcome is inferred through the occurrence of a secondary event rather than by direct observation. Using an N-deficient incubation medium, the increase in starch fermentation, when supplemented with individual amino acids (i.e., known level of N) relative to that of urea (i.e., known quantity and N availability), provided an estimate of their microbial utilisation. Due to the low level of response observed with some arnino acids (notably methionine and lysine), it was concluded, that they may not need to be offered in a rumen-inert form to escape rumen microbial degradation. In another experiment, the extent to which degradation of plant cell wall components was inhibited by lipid supplementation was evaluated using fermentation gas release profiles of washed hay. The different responses due to lipid source and level of inclusion suggested that the degree of rumen protection required to ameliorate this depression was supplement dependent. That in vitro inocula differ in their microbial composition is of little interest per se, as long as the outcome is the same (i.e., that similar substrates are degraded at comparable rates and end-product release is equivalent). However where a microbial population is deficient in a particular activity, increasing the level of inoculation will have no benefit. Estimates of hydrolytic activity were obtained by examining fermentation kinetics of specific substrates. A number of studies identified a fundamental difference between rumen fluid and faecal inocula, with the latter having a lower fibrolytic activity, which could not be completely attributed to microbial numbers. The majority of forage maize is offered as an ensiled feed, however most of the information on which decisions such as choice of variety, crop management and harvesting date are made is based on fresh crop measurements. As such, an attempt was made to estimate ensiled maize quality from an in vitro analysis of the fresh crop. Fermentation profiles and chemical analysis confirmed changes in crop composition over the growing season, and loss of labile carbohydrates during ensiling. In addition, examination of degradation residues allowed metabolizable energy (ME) contents to be estimated. Due to difficulties associated with starch analysis, the observation that this parameter could be predicted by difference (together with an assumed degradability), allowed an estimate of ensiled maize ME to be developed from fresh material. In addition, the contribution of the main carbohydrates towards ME showed the importance of delaying harvest until maximum starch content has been achieved. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Noise, predation risk compensation and vigilance in the chaffinch Fringilla coelebs

Background noise should in theory hinder detection of auditory cues associated with approaching danger. We tested whether foraging chaffinches Fringilla coelebs responded to background noise by increasing vigilance, and examined whether this was explained by predation risk compensation or by a novel stimulus hypothesis. The former predicts that only inter-scan interval should be modified in the presence of background noise, not vigilance levels generally. This is because noise hampers auditory cue detection and increases perceived predation risk primarily when in the head-down position, and also because previous tests have shown that only interscan interval is correlated with predator detection ability in this system. Chaffinches only modified interscan interval supporting this hypothesis. At the same time they made significantly fewer pecks when feeding during the background noise treatment and so the increased vigilance led to a reduction in intake rate, suggesting that compensating for the increased predation risk could indirectly lead to a fitness cost. Finally, the novel stimulus hypothesis predicts that chaffinches should habituate to the noise, which did not occur within a trial or over 5 subsequent trials. We conclude that auditory cues may be an important component of the trade-off between vigilance and feeding, and discuss possible implications for anti-predation theory and ecological processes

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The potential for the use of agent-based models in ecotoxicology

This chapter introduces ABMs, their construction, and the pros and cons of their use. Although relatively new, agent-basedmodels (ABMs) have great potential for use in ecotoxicological research – their primary advantage being the realistic simulations that can be constructed and particularly their explicit handling of space and time in simulations. Examples are provided of their use in ecotoxicology primarily exemplified by different implementations of the ALMaSS system. These examples presented demonstrate how multiple stressors, landscape structure, details regarding toxicology, animal behavior, and socioeconomic effects can and should be taken into account when constructing simulations for risk assessment. Like ecological systems, in ABMs the behavior at the system level is not simply the mean of the component responses, but the sum of the often nonlinear interactions between components in the system; hence this modeling approach opens the door to implementing and testing much more realistic and holistic ecotoxicological models than are currently used.

Spontaneous condensation in DNA-polystyrene-b-poly(l-lysine) polyelectrolyte block copolymer mixtures

We investigated the condensation of calf thymus DNA by amphiphilic polystyrene(m)-b-poly(l-lysine)(n) block copolymers (PSm-b- PLys(n), m, n = degree of polymerization), using small-angle X-ray scattering, polarized optical microscopy and laser scanning confocal microscopy. Microscopy studies showed that the DNA condenses in the form of fibrillar precipitates, with an irregular structure, due to electrostatic interactions between PLys and DNA. This is not modified by the presence of hydrophobic PS block. Scattering experiments show that the structure of the polyplexes corresponds to a local order of DNA rods which becomes more compact upon increasing n. It can be concluded that for DNA/ PSm-b- PLys(n) polyplexes, the balance between the PLys block length and the excess charge in the system plays an essential role in the formation of a liquid crystalline phase.

A rheological and SAXS study of the lamellar order in a side-on liquid crystalline block copolymer

We study the structure and shear flow behavior of a side-on liquid crystalline triblock copolymer, named PBA-b-PA444-b-PBA (PBA is poly(butyl acrylate) and PA444 is a poly(acrylate) with a nematic liquid crystal side-on mesogen), in the self-assembled lamellar phase and in the disordered phase. Simultaneous oscillatory shear and small-angle X-ray scattering experiments show that shearing PBA-b-PA444-b-PBA at high frequency and strain amplitudes leads to the alignment of the lamellae with normals perpendicular to the shear direction and to the velocity gradient direction, i.e., in the perpendicular orientation. The order-to-disorder transition temperature (T-ODT) is independent of the applied strain, in contrast to results reported in the literature for coil-coil diblock copolymers, which show an increase in T-ODT with shear rate. It is possible that in our system, T-ODT does not depend on the applied strain because the fluctuations are weaker than those present in coil-coil diblock copolymer systems.

Informal communication networks and the diffusion of innovations in UK construction projects: A research design

The UK industry has been criticised for being slow to adopt construction process innovations. Research shows that the idiosyncrasies of participants, their roles in the system and the contextual differences between sections of the industry make this a highly complex problem. There is considerable evidence that informal social networks play a key role in diffusion of innovations. The aim is to identify informal communication networks of project participants and the role these play in the diffusion of construction innovations. The characteristics of this network will be analysed in order to understand how they can be used to accelerate innovation diffusion within and between projects. Social Network Analysis is used to determine informal communication routes. Control and experiment case study projects are used within two different organizations. This allows informal communication routes concerning innovations to be mapped, whilst testing if the informal routes can facilitate diffusion. Analysis will focus upon understanding the combination of informal strong and weak ties, and how these impede or facilitate the diffusion of the innovation. Initial work suggests the presence of an informal communication network. Actors within this informal network, and the organization's management are unaware of its' existence and their informal roles within it. Thus, the network remains an untapped medium regarding innovation diffusion. It is proposed that successful innovation diffusion is dependent upon understanding informal strong and weak ties, at project, organization and industry level.

An in vitro study of the probiotic potential of a bile-salt-hydrolyzing Lactobacillus fermentum strain, and determination of its cholesterol-lowering properties

This study evaluated the use of a bile-salt-hydrolyzing Lactobacillus fermentum strain as a probiotic with potential hypocholesterolemic properties. The effect of L. fermentum on representative microbial populations and overall metabolic activity of the human intestinal microbiota was investigated using a three-stage continuous culture system. Also, the use of galactooligosaccharides as a prebiotic to enhance growth and/or activity of the Lactobacillus strain was evaluated. Administration of L. fermentum resulted in a decrease in the overall bifidobacterial population (ca. 1 log unit). In the in vitro system, no significant changes were observed in the total bacterial, Lactobacillus, Bacteroides, and clostridial populations through L. fermentum supplementation. Acetate production decreased by 9 to 27%, while the propionate and butyrate concentrations increased considerably (50 to 90% and 52 to 157%, respectively). A general, although lesser, increase in the production of lactate was observed with the administration of the L. fermentum strain. Supplementation of the prebiotic to the culture medium did not cause statistically significant changes in either the numbers or the activity of the microbiota, although an increase in the butyrate production was seen (29 to 39%). Results from this in vitro study suggest that L.Fermentum KC5b is a candidate probiotic which may affect cholesterol metabolism. The short-chain fatty acid concentrations, specifically the molar proportion of propionate and/or bile salt deconjugation, are probably the major mechanism involved in the purported cholesterol-lowering properties of this strain.

pH-mediated interactions between poly(acrylic acid) and methylcellulose in the formation of ultrathin multilayered hydrogels and spherical nanoparticles

Poly(acrylic acid) forms insoluble hydrogen-bonded interpolymer complexes with methylcellulose in aqueous solutions under acidic conditions. In this work the reaction heats and binding constants were determined for the complexation between poly(acrylic acid) and methylcellulose by isothermal titration calorimetry at different pH and findings are correlated with the aggregation processes occurring in this system. The principal contribution to the complexation heat results from primary polycomplex particle aggregation. Transmission electron microscopy of nanoparticles produced at pH 1.4 and 2.4 demonstrated that they are spherical and dense structures. The nanoparticles ranged from 80 to 200 nm, whereas particles formed at pH 3.2 were 20-30 nm and were stabilized against aggregation by a network of uncomplexed macromolecules. For the first time, multilayered materials were developed on the basis of hydrogen-bonded complexes of poly(acrylic acid) and methylcellulose using layer-by-layer deposition on a glass surface. The thickness of these films was a linear function of the number of deposition cycles. The materials were subsequently cross-linked by thermal treatment, resulting in ultrathin hydrogels which detached from the glass substrate upon swelling. The swelling capacity of ultrathin hydrogels differed from the swelling of the thicker films of a similar chemical composition.

Can misalignments in typical infants be used as a model for infantile esotropia?

PURPOSE. To investigate the nature of early ocular misalignments in human infants to determine whether they can provide insight into the etiology of esotropia and, in particular, to examine the correlates of misalignments. METHODS. A remote haploscopic photorefraction system was used to measure accommodation and vergence in 146 infants between 0 and 12 months of age. Infants underwent photorefraction immediately after watching a target moving between two of five viewing distances (25, 33, 50, 100, and 200 cm). In some instances, infants were tested in two conditions: both eyes open and one eye occluded. The resultant data were screened for instances of large misalignments. Data were assessed to determine whether accommodative, retinal disparity, or other cues were associated with the occurrence of misalignments. RESULTS. The results showed that there was no correlation between accommodative behavior and misalignments. Infants were more likely to show misalignments when retinal disparity cues were removed through occlusion. They were also more likely to show misalignments immediately after the target moved from a near to a far position in comparison to far-to-near target movement. DISCUSSION. The data suggest that the prevalence of misalignments in infants of 2 to 3 months of age is decreased by the addition of retinal disparity cues to the stimulus. In addition, target movement away from the infant increases the prevalence of misalignments. These data are compatible with the notion that misalignment are caused by poor sensitivity to targets moving away from the infant and support the theory that some forms of strabismus could be related to failure in a system that is sensitive to the direction of motion.

Towards dynamical system models of language-related brain potentials

Event-related brain potentials (ERP) are important neural correlates of cognitive processes. In the domain of language processing, the N400 and P600 reflect lexical-semantic integration and syntactic processing problems, respectively. We suggest an interpretation of these markers in terms of dynamical system theory and present two nonlinear dynamical models for syntactic computations where different processing strategies correspond to functionally different regions in the system's phase space.

Improved channel estimation in TDMA by reproduction with applications in GSM/GPRS under co-channel interference

Finding an estimate of the channel impulse response (CIR) by correlating a received known (training) sequence with the sent training sequence is commonplace. Where required, it is also common to truncate the longer correlation to a sub-set of correlation coefficients by finding the set of N sequential correlation coefficients with the maximum power. This paper presents a new approach to selecting the optimal set of N CIR coefficients from the correlation rather than relying on power. The algorithm reconstructs a set of predicted symbols using the training sequence and various sub-sets of the correlation to find the sub-set that results in the minimum mean squared error between the actual received symbols and the reconstructed symbols. The application of the algorithm is presented in the context of the TDMA based GSM/GPRS system to demonstrate an improvement in the system performance with the new algorithm and the results are presented in the paper. However, the application lends itself to any training sequence based communication system often found within wireless consumer electronic device(1).