Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Ultrastructural alterations in mesophyll and bundle sheath chloroplasts of two maize cultivars in response to chilling at high irradiance

Maize (Zea mays L.) seedlings of two cultivars (cv. Bastion adapted to W. Europe, and cv. Batan 8686 adapted to the highlands of Mexico), raised in a glasshouse (19-25 degrees C), were transferred to 4.5 or 9 degrees C at photon flux density (PPFD) of 950 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) with 10-h photoperiod for 58 h and then allowed to recover at 22 degrees C for 16 h (14 h dark and 2 h at PPFD of 180 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)). The ultrastructural responses after 4 h or 26 h at 4.5 degrees C were the disappearance of starch grains in the bundle sheath chloroplasts and the contraction of intrathylakoid spaces in stromal thylakoids of the mesophyll chloroplasts. At this time, bundle sheath chloroplasts of cv. Batan 8686 formed peripheral reticulum. Prolonged stress at 4.5 degrees C (50 h) caused plastid swelling and the dilation of intrathylakoid spaces, mainly in mesophyll chloroplasts. Bundle sheath chloroplasts of cv. Batan 8686 seedlings appeared well preserved in shape and structure. Batan 8686 had also higher net photosynthetic rates during chilling and recovery than Bastion. Extended leaf photobleaching developed during the recovery period after chilling at 4.5 degrees C. This was associated with collapsed chloroplast envelopes, disintegrated chloroplasts and very poor staining.

Rapid model quality assessment for protein structure predictions using the comparison of multiple models without structural alignments

MOTIVATION: The accurate prediction of the quality of 3D models is a key component of successful protein tertiary structure prediction methods. Currently, clustering or consensus based Model Quality Assessment Programs (MQAPs) are the most accurate methods for predicting 3D model quality; however they are often CPU intensive as they carry out multiple structural alignments in order to compare numerous models. In this study, we describe ModFOLDclustQ - a novel MQAP that compares 3D models of proteins without the need for CPU intensive structural alignments by utilising the Q measure for model comparisons. The ModFOLDclustQ method is benchmarked against the top established methods in terms of both accuracy and speed. In addition, the ModFOLDclustQ scores are combined with those from our older ModFOLDclust method to form a new method, ModFOLDclust2, that aims to provide increased prediction accuracy with negligible computational overhead. RESULTS: The ModFOLDclustQ method is competitive with leading clustering based MQAPs for the prediction of global model quality, yet it is up to 150 times faster than the previous version of the ModFOLDclust method at comparing models of small proteins (<60 residues) and over 5 times faster at comparing models of large proteins (>800 residues). Furthermore, a significant improvement in accuracy can be gained over the previous clustering based MQAPs by combining the scores from ModFOLDclustQ and ModFOLDclust to form the new ModFOLDclust2 method, with little impact on the overall time taken for each prediction. AVAILABILITY: The ModFOLDclustQ and ModFOLDclust2 methods are available to download from: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/downloads/ CONTACT: l.j.mcguffin@reading.ac.uk.

UV irradiance as a major influence on growth, development and secondary products of commercial importance in Lollo Rosso lettuce 'Revolution' grown under polyethylene films

The growth and production of anthocyanin, flavonoid and phenolic compounds were evaluated in Lollo Rosso lettuce 'Revolution' grown continuously under films varying in their ability to transmit LTV radiation (completely transparent to IN, transparent above 320, 350, 370 and 3 80 nm and completely opaque to LTV radiation). Plants were grown from seed under UV transparent and UV blocking films and destructively harvested 3-4 weeks after transplanting. Plants under a complete UV blocking film (UV400) produced up to 2.2 times more total above ground dry weight than plants under the UV transparent film. In contrast, anthocyanin content in plants under the UV blocking film was approximately eight times lower than in plants under a UV transparent film. Furthermore, there was a curvilinear relationship between the anthocyanin content and LTV wavelength cutoff such that above 370 run there was no further reduction in anthocyanin content. Fluorescence measurements indicated that photosynthetic performance index was 15% higher under the presence of UVB and UVA (UV280) than under the presence of UVA (UV320) and 53% higher than in the absence of UV radiation suggesting protection of the photosynthetic apparatus possibly by phenolic compounds. These findings are of particular importance as the potential of UV transmitting films to increase secondary compounds may offer the opportunity to produce plants commercially with increased health benefits compared to those grown under conventional films.

Predictions of some product parameters based on the processing conditions of ultra-high-temperature milk plants

The temperature-time profiles of 22 Australian industrial ultra-high-temperature (UHT) plants and 3 pilot plants, using both indirect and direct heating, were surveyed. From these data, the operating parameters of each plant, the chemical index C*, the bacteriological index B* and the predicted changes in the levels of beta-lactoglobulin, alpha-lactalbumin, lactulose, furosine and browning were determined using a simulation program based on published formulae and reaction kinetics data. There was a wide spread of heating conditions used, some of which resulted in a large margin of bacteriological safety and high chemical indices. However, no conditions were severe enough to cause browning during processing. The data showed a clear distinction between the indirect and direct heating plants. They also indicated that degree of denaturation of alpha-lactalbumin varied over a wide range and may be a useful discriminatory index of heat treatment. Application of the program to pilot plants illustrated its value in determining processing conditions in these plants to simulate the conditions in industrial UHT plants. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of predictions of baking volume using large deformation rheological properties

Three large deformation rheological tests, the Kieffer dough extensibility system, the D/R dough inflation system and the 2 g mixograph test, were carried out on doughs made from a large number of winter wheat lines and cultivars grown in Poland. These lines and cultivars represented a broad spread in baking performance in order to assess their suitability as predictors of baking volume. The parameters most closely associated with baking volume were strain hardening index, bubble failure strain, and mixograph bandwidth at 10min. Simple correlations with baking volume indicate that bubble failure strain and strain hardening index give the highest correlations, whilst the use of best subsets regression, which selects the best combination of parameters, gave increased correlations with R-2 = 0.865 for dough inflation parameters, R-2 = 0. 842 for Kieffer parameters and R-2 = 0.760 for mixograph parameters. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relationship between absolute and proportion scores of serial order memory: simulation predictions and empirical data

The capability of a feature model of immediate memory (Nairne, 1990; Neath, 2000) to predict and account for a relationship between absolute and proportion scoring of immediate serial recall when memory load is varied (the list-length effect, LLE) is examined. The model correctly predicts the novel finding of an LLE in immediate serial order memory similar to that observed with free recall and previously assumed to be attributable to the long-term memory component of that procedure (Glanzer, 1972). The usefulness of formal models as predictive tools and the continuity between short-term serial order and longer term item memory are considered.

Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean

A key aspect in designing an ecient decadal prediction system is ensuring that the uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions is sampled optimally. Here, we consider one strategy to address this issue by investigating the growth of optimal perturbations in the HadCM3 global climate model (GCM). More specically, climatically relevant singular vectors (CSVs) - the small perturbations which grow most rapidly for a specic initial condition - are estimated for decadal timescales in the Atlantic Ocean. It is found that reliable CSVs can be estimated by running a large ensemble of integrations of the GCM. Amplication of the optimal perturbations occurs for more than 10 years, and possibly up to 40 years. The identi ed regions for growing perturbations are found to be in the far North Atlantic, and these perturbations cause amplication through an anomalous meridional overturning circulation response. Additionally, this type of analysis potentially informs the design of future ocean observing systems by identifying the sensitive regions where small uncertainties in the ocean state can grow maximally. Although these CSVs are expensive to compute, we identify ways in which the process could be made more ecient in the future.

A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions

A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multi-model climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model-scenario interaction - the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is quantified as a function of lead time for a subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble and results largely agree with those published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the 21st century. Both elements of model uncertainty, due to scenario-independent and scenario-dependent deviations from the ensemble mean, are found to increase with time. Estimates of model deviations that arise as by-products of the framework reveal significant differences between models that could lead to a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in multi-model ensembles. For example, three models are shown diverging pattern over the 21st century, while another model exhibits an unusually large variation among its scenario-dependent deviations.

Global climate change and soil carbon stocks: predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO2 to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO2 levels and accelerated lobal warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre’s coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single-pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 GtC by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 GtC decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.

Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach

We explore the potential for making statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in a perfect model analysis, with a focus on the Atlantic basin. Various statistical methods (Lagged correlations, Linear Inverse Modelling and Constructed Analogue) are found to have significant skill in predicting the internal variability of Atlantic SSTs for up to a decade ahead in control integrations of two different global climate models (GCMs), namely HadCM3 and HadGEM1. Statistical methods which consider non-local information tend to perform best, but which is the most successful statistical method depends on the region considered, GCM data used and prediction lead time. However, the Constructed Analogue method tends to have the highest skill at longer lead times. Importantly, the regions of greatest prediction skill can be very different to regions identified as potentially predictable from variance explained arguments. This finding suggests that significant local decadal variability is not necessarily a prerequisite for skillful decadal predictions, and that the statistical methods are capturing some of the dynamics of low-frequency SST evolution. In particular, using data from HadGEM1, significant skill at lead times of 6–10 years is found in the tropical North Atlantic, a region with relatively little decadal variability compared to interannual variability. This skill appears to come from reconstructing the SSTs in the far north Atlantic, suggesting that the more northern latitudes are optimal for SST observations to improve predictions. We additionally explore whether adding sub-surface temperature data improves these decadal statistical predictions, and find that, again, it depends on the region, prediction lead time and GCM data used. Overall, we argue that the estimated prediction skill motivates the further development of statistical decadal predictions of SSTs as a benchmark for current and future GCM-based decadal climate predictions.