Should system dynamics be described as a 'hard' or 'deterministic' systems approach?

This paper explores the criticism that system dynamics is a ‘hard’ or ‘deterministic’ systems approach. This criticism is seen to have four interpretations and each is addressed from the perspectives of social theory and systems science. Firstly, system dynamics is shown to offer not prophecies but Popperian predictions. Secondly, it is shown to involve the view that system structure only partially, not fully, determines human behaviour. Thirdly, the field's assumptions are shown not to constitute a grand content theory—though its structural theory and its attachment to the notion of causality in social systems are acknowledged. Finally, system dynamics is shown to be significantly different from systems engineering. The paper concludes that such confusions have arisen partially because of limited communication at the theoretical level from within the system dynamics community but also because of imperfect command of the available literature on the part of external commentators. Improved communication on theoretical issues is encouraged, though it is observed that system dynamics will continue to justify its assumptions primarily from the point of view of practical problem solving. The answer to the question in the paper's title is therefore: on balance, no.

Meeting detection in video through semantic analysis

In this paper we present a novel approach to detect people meeting. The proposed approach works by translating people behaviour from trajectory information into semantic terms. Having available a semantic model of the meeting behaviour, the event detection is performed in the semantic domain. The model is learnt employing a soft-computing clustering algorithm that combines trajectory information and motion semantic terms. A stable representation can be obtained from a series of examples. Results obtained on a series of videos with different types of meeting situations show that the proposed approach can learn a generic model that can effectively be applied on the behaviour recognition of meeting situations.

PETS 2014: dataset and challenge

This paper describes the dataset and vision challenges that form part of the PETS 2014 workshop. The datasets are multisensor sequences containing different activities around a parked vehicle in a parking lot. The dataset scenarios were filmed from multiple cameras mounted on the vehicle itself and involve multiple actors. In PETS2014 workshop, 22 acted scenarios are provided of abnormal behaviour around the parked vehicle. The aim in PETS 2014 is to provide a standard benchmark that indicates how detection, tracking, abnormality and behaviour analysis systems perform against a common database. The dataset specifically addresses several vision challenges corresponding to different steps in a video understanding system: Low-Level Video Analysis (object detection and tracking), Mid-Level Video Analysis (‘simple’ event detection: the behaviour recognition of a single actor) and High-Level Video Analysis (‘complex’ event detection: the behaviour and interaction recognition of several actors).

High throughput profile-profile based fold recognition for the entire human proteome

BACKGROUND: In order to maintain the most comprehensive structural annotation databases we must carry out regular updates for each proteome using the latest profile-profile fold recognition methods. The ability to carry out these updates on demand is necessary to keep pace with the regular updates of sequence and structure databases. Providing the highest quality structural models requires the most intensive profile-profile fold recognition methods running with the very latest available sequence databases and fold libraries. However, running these methods on such a regular basis for every sequenced proteome requires large amounts of processing power.In this paper we describe and benchmark the JYDE (Job Yield Distribution Environment) system, which is a meta-scheduler designed to work above cluster schedulers, such as Sun Grid Engine (SGE) or Condor. We demonstrate the ability of JYDE to distribute the load of genomic-scale fold recognition across multiple independent Grid domains. We use the most recent profile-profile version of our mGenTHREADER software in order to annotate the latest version of the Human proteome against the latest sequence and structure databases in as short a time as possible. RESULTS: We show that our JYDE system is able to scale to large numbers of intensive fold recognition jobs running across several independent computer clusters. Using our JYDE system we have been able to annotate 99.9% of the protein sequences within the Human proteome in less than 24 hours, by harnessing over 500 CPUs from 3 independent Grid domains. CONCLUSION: This study clearly demonstrates the feasibility of carrying out on demand high quality structural annotations for the proteomes of major eukaryotic organisms. Specifically, we have shown that it is now possible to provide complete regular updates of profile-profile based fold recognition models for entire eukaryotic proteomes, through the use of Grid middleware such as JYDE.

The influence of changing nicotine to tar ratios on human puffing behaviour and perceived sensory response

Rationale. Smokers modify their smoking behaviour when switching from their usual product to higher or lower tar and nicotine-yield cigarettes. Objective. The aims of the current study were to assess the influence of varying nicotine yields at constant tar yield on human puffing measures, nicotine deliveries under human smoking conditions and the sensory response to mainstream cigarette smoke. These assessments would allow an evaluation of the degree of compensation and the various possible causes of changes, if any. Methods. The participants were 13 regular smokers of commercial or hand-rolled cigarettes. They were tested with four cigarettes, which exhibited a wide range of nicotine to 'tar' ratios at a relatively constant 'tar' yield. Their smoking behaviour was monitored by placing the test cigarettes into an orifice-type holder/flowmeter attached to a custom-built smoker behaviour analyser. In addition, a comprehensive sensory evaluation of the products was carried out. Results. The differences in the nicotine to tar ratios of the samples did not significantly influence the puffing behaviour patterns, i.e. puff number and interval, total and average puff volume, integrated pressure and puff duration. Additionally the pre- to post-exhaled CO boosts were not significantly influenced by the experimental samples used in the study. However, the nicotine yields obtained by the smokers were significantly influenced by the machine-smoked nicotine yields or the nicotine to tar ratios of the samples. The machine-smoked nicotine yields were highly correlated with the nicotine yields obtained under human smoking conditions. For the sensory evaluation, there was only a significant difference between the samples in the intensity of the impact. Conclusion. These observations imply that these puffing variables are not controlled by the nicotine yield of the cigarette.

Recognition of greater diversity of Bacillus species and related bacteria in human faeces

In a study looking at the culturable, aerobic Actinobacteria associated with the human gastrointestinal tract, the vast majority of isolates obtained from dried human faeces belonged to the genus Bacillus and related bacteria. A total of 124 isolates were recovered from the faeces of 10 healthy adult donors. 16S rRNA gene sequence analyses showed the majority belonged to the families Bacillaceae (n = 81) and Paenibacillaceae (n = 3), with Bacillus species isolated from all donors. Isolates tentatively identified as Bacillus clausii (n = 32) and B. licheniformis (n = 28) were recovered most frequently, with the genera Lysinibacillus, Ureibacillus, Oceanobacillus, Ornithinibacillus and Virgibacillus represented in some donors. Phenotypic data confirmed the identities of isolates belonging to well-characterized species. Representatives of the phylum Actinobacteria were recovered in much lower numbers (n = 11). Many of the bacilli exhibited antimicrobial activity against one or more strains of Clostridium difficile, C. perfringens, Listeria monocytogenes and Staphylococcus aureus, with some (n = 12) found to have no detectable cytopathic effect on HEp-2 cells. This study has revealed greater diversity within gut-associated aerobic spore-formers than previous studies, and suggests that bacilli with potential as probiotics could be isolated from the human gut.

Development of an ex vivo human skin model for intradermal vaccination : tissue viability and Langerhans cell behaviour

The presence of resident Langerhans cells (LCs) in the epidermis makes the skin an attractive target for DNA vaccination. However, reliable animal models for cutaneous vaccination studies are limited. We demonstrate an ex vivo human skin model for cutaneous DNA vaccination which can potentially bridge the gap between pre-clinical in vivo animal models and clinical studies. Cutaneous transgene expression was utilised to demonstrate epidermal tissue viability in culture. LC response to the culture environment was monitored by immunohistochemistry. Full-thickness and split-thickness skin remained genetically viable in culture for at least 72 h in both phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) and full organ culture medium (OCM). The epidermis of explants cultured in OCM remained morphologically intact throughout the culture duration. LCs in full-thickness skin exhibited a delayed response (reduction in cell number and increase in cell size) to the culture conditions compared with split-thickness skin, whose response was immediate. In conclusion, excised human skin can be cultured for a minimum of 72 h for analysis of gene expression and immune cell activation. However, the use of split-thickness skin for vaccine formulation studies may not be appropriate because of the nature of the activation. Full-thickness skin explants are a more suitable model to assess cutaneous vaccination ex vivo.

Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

Ethnobiology and the evolution of the human mind

An evolutionary perspective on human thought and behaviour indicates that we should expect to find universal systems of perception, classification, and decision-making regarding the natural world. It is the interaction between these evolved aspects of the human mind, the biodiversity of the natural world, and unique historical, social, and economic contexts within which individuals develop and act that gives rise to cultural diversity. The palaeoanthropological record also indicates that language is a recently evolved phenomenon. This suggests that linguistic approaches in ethnobiology are likely to provide only a partial understanding of how humans perceive, classify, and engage with the natural world.

Human language as a culturally transmitted replicator

Human languages form a distinct and largely independent class of cultural replicators with behaviour and fidelity that can rival that of genes. Parallels between biological and linguistic evolution mean that statistical methods inspired by phylogenetics and comparative biology are being increasingly applied to study language. Phylogenetic trees constructed from linguistic elements chart the history of human cultures, and comparative studies reveal surprising and general features of how languages evolve, including patterns in the rates of evolution of language elements and social factors that influence temporal trends of language evolution. For many comparative questions of anthropology and human behavioural ecology, historical processes estimated from linguistic phylogenies may be more relevant than those estimated from genes.

Terrestrial carnivores and human food production: impact and management

1. The production of food for human consumption has led to an historical and global conflict with terrestrial carnivores, which in turn has resulted in the extinction or extirpation of many species, although some have benefited. At present, carnivores affect food production by: (i) killing human producers; killing and/or eating (ii) fish/shellfish; (iii) game/wildfowl; (iv) livestock; (v) damaging crops; (vi) transmitting diseases; and (vii) through trophic interactions with other species in agricultural landscapes. Conversely, carnivores can themselves be a source of dietary protein (bushmeat). 2. Globally, the major areas of conflict are predation on livestock and the transmission of rabies. At a broad scale, livestock predation is a customary problem where predators are present and has been quantified for a broad range of carnivore species, although the veracity of these estimates is equivocal. Typically, but not always, losses are small relative to the numbers held, but can be a significant proportion of total livestock mortality. Losses experienced by producers are often highly variable, indicating that factors such as husbandry practices and predator behaviour may significantly affect the relative vulnerability of properties in the wider landscape. Within livestock herds, juvenile animals are particularly vulnerable. 3. Proactive and reactive culling are widely practised as a means to limit predation on livestock and game. Historic changes in species' distributions and abundance illustrate that culling programmes can be very effective at reducing predator density, although such substantive impacts are generally considered undesirable for native predators. However, despite their prevalence, the effectiveness, efficiency and the benefit:cost ratio of culling programmes have been poorly studied. 4. A wide range of non-lethal methods to limit predation has been studied. However, many of these have their practical limitations and are unlikely to be widely applicable. 5. Lethal approaches are likely to dominate the management of terrestrial carnivores for the foreseeable future, but animal welfare considerations are increasingly likely to influence management strategies. The adoption of non-lethal approaches will depend upon proof of their effectiveness and the willingness of stakeholders to implement them, and, in some cases, appropriate licensing and legislation. 6. Overall, it is apparent that we still understand relatively little about the importance of factors affecting predation on livestock and how to manage this conflict effectively. We consider the following avenues of research to be essential: (i) quantified assessments of the loss of viable livestock; (ii) landscape-level studies of contiguous properties to quantify losses associated with variables such as different husbandry practices; (iii) replicated experimental manipulations to identify the relative benefit of particular management practices, incorporating (iv) techniques to identify individual predators killing stock; and (v) economic analyses of different management approaches to quantify optimal production strategies.

Alterations in receptor binding properties of recent human influenza H3N2 viruses are associated with reduced natural killer cell lysis of infected cells

Natural killer (NK) cell recognition of influenza virus-infected cells involves hemagglutinin (HA) binding to sialic acid (SA) on activating NK receptors. SA also acts as a receptor for the binding of influenza virus to its target host cells. The SA binding properties of H3N2 influenza viruses have been observed to change during circulation in humans: recent isolates are unable to agglutinate chicken red blood cells and show reduced affinity for synthetic glycopolymers representing SA-alpha-2,3-lactose (3'SL-PAA) and SA-alpha-2,6-N-acetyl lactosamine (6'SLN-PAA) carbohydrates. Here, NK lysis of cells infected with human H3N2 influenza viruses isolated between 1969 and 2003 was analyzed. Cells infected with recent isolates (1999 to 2003) were found to be lysed less effectively than cells infected with older isolates (1969 to 1996). This change occurred concurrently with the acquisition of two new potential glycosylation site motifs in RA. Deletion of the potential glycosylation site motif at 133 to 135 in HA1 from a recent isolate partially restored the agglutination phenotype to a recombinant virus, indicating that the HA-SA interaction is inhibited by the glycosylation modification. Deletion of either of the recently acquired potential glycosylation sites from HA led to increased NK lysis of cells infected with recombinant viruses carrying modified HA. These results indicate that alterations in RA glycosylation may affect NK cell recognition of influenza virus-infected cells in addition to virus binding to host cells.

Alterations in receptor binding properties of recent human influenza H3N2 viruses are associated with reduced natural killer cell lysis of infected cells

Natural killer (NK) cell recognition of influenza virus-infected cells involves hemagglutinin (HA) binding to sialic acid (SA) on activating NK receptors. SA also acts as a receptor for the binding of influenza virus to its target host cells. The SA binding properties of H3N2 influenza viruses have been observed to change during circulation in humans: recent isolates are unable to agglutinate chicken red blood cells and show reduced affinity for synthetic glycopolymers representing SA-alpha-2,3-lactose (3'SL-PAA) and SA-alpha-2,6-N-acetyl lactosamine (6'SLN-PAA) carbohydrates. Here, NK lysis of cells infected with human H3N2 influenza viruses isolated between 1969 and 2003 was analyzed. Cells infected with recent isolates (1999 to 2003) were found to be lysed less effectively than cells infected with older isolates (1969 to 1996). This change occurred concurrently with the acquisition of two new potential glycosylation site motifs in RA. Deletion of the potential glycosylation site motif at 133 to 135 in HA1 from a recent isolate partially restored the agglutination phenotype to a recombinant virus, indicating that the HA-SA interaction is inhibited by the glycosylation modification. Deletion of either of the recently acquired potential glycosylation sites from HA led to increased NK lysis of cells infected with recombinant viruses carrying modified HA. These results indicate that alterations in RA glycosylation may affect NK cell recognition of influenza virus-infected cells in addition to virus binding to host cells.

Nocturnal ranging behaviour of urban hedgehogs, Erinaceus europaeus, in relation to risk and reward

Urban areas have both positive and negative influences on wildlife. For terrestrial mammals, one of the principle problems is the risk associated with moving through the environment whilst foraging. In this study, we examined nocturnal patterns of movement of urban-dwelling hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) in relation to (i) the risks posed by predators and motor vehicles and (ii) nightly weather patterns. Hedgehogs preferentially utilised the gardens of semi-detached and terraced houses. However, females, but not males, avoided the larger back gardens of detached houses, which contain more of the habitat features selected by badgers. This difference in the avoidance of predation risk is probably associated with sex differences in breeding behaviour. Differences in nightly movement patterns were consistent with strategies associated with mating behaviour and the accumulation of fat reserves for hibernation. Hedgehogs also exhibited differences in behaviour associated with the risks posed by humans; they avoided actively foraging near roads and road verges, but did not avoid crossing roads per se. They were, however, significantly more active after midnight when there was a marked reduction in vehicle and foot traffic. In particular, responses to increased temperature, which is associated with increased abundance of invertebrate prey, were only observed after midnight. This variation in the timing of bouts of activity would reduce the risks associated with human activities. There were also profound differences in both area ranged and activity with chronological year which warrant further investigation.