The transformation of earth-system observations into information of socio-economic value in GEOSS

The Group on Earth Observations System of Systems, GEOSS, is a co-ordinated initiative by many nations to address the needs for earth-system information expressed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. We discuss the role of earth-system modelling and data assimilation in transforming earth-system observations into the predictive and status-assessment products required by GEOSS, across many areas of socio-economic interest. First we review recent gains in the predictive skill of operational global earth-system models, on time-scales of days to several seasons. We then discuss recent work to develop from the global predictions a diverse set of end-user applications which can meet GEOSS requirements for information of socio-economic benefit; examples include forecasts of coastal storm surges, floods in large river basins, seasonal crop yield forecasts and seasonal lead-time alerts for malaria epidemics. We note ongoing efforts to extend operational earth-system modelling and assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition, in support of improved services for air-quality forecasts and for treaty assessment. We next sketch likely GEOSS observational requirements in the coming decades. In concluding, we reflect on the cost of earth observations relative to the modest cost of transforming the observations into information of socio-economic value.

Sleepwalking from New York to Miami

In the winter of 2007, Doug Aitken’s moving image installation, sleepwalkers, was projected onto the exterior walls of the Museum of Modern Art in New York. The project was a collaboration between Aitken, the museum and Creative Time, a New York-based organisation that commissions public art projects. A site-specific version of the installation has been commissioned by the Miami Art Museum for the opening of its new facility, designed by Swiss architects Herzog and de Meuron, in 2013: “sleepwalkers (Miami) will expand the work’s landscape and characters in a manner that reflects the diverse social fabric of Miami.” This essay examines sleepwalkers as an example of the emerging form of film as public art. There are three strands to my argument: first, an examination of the role of film in the redefinition of public art, shifting away from spatial practices concerned with fixed and permanent notions of space, community and art and towards transient and experimental spatial and artistic practices; second,a discussion of the relationship between projection and the built environment and the ways that the qualities of luminescence, transparency, movement and connectivity are transferred from projected images to the surfaces on which they are projected and the spaces around them; and third, an examination of the ways that sleepwalkers uses only certain aspects of narrativity, those concerned with movement and change, and avoids hermeneutic absorption in order to keep the spectators moving (transposing the idea of sleepwalking from characters to spectators). Transience and transparency are key ideas in the conceptualisation of the work, and these are deployed with significant differences in relation to the distinctive characteristics of each city and each museum.

Limitations of small x resummation methods from F2data

We discuss several methods of calculating the DIS structure functions F2(x,Q2) based on BFKL-type small x resummations. Taking into account new HERA data ranging down to small xand low Q2, the pure leading order BFKL-based approach is excluded. Other methods based on high energy factorization are closer to conventional renormalization group equations. Despite several difficulties and ambiguities in combining the renormalization group equations with small x resummed terms, we find that a fit to the current data is hardly feasible, since the data in the low Q2 region are not as steep as the BFKL formalism predicts. Thus we conclude that deviations from the (successful) renormalization group approach towards summing up logarithms in 1/x are disfavoured by experiment.

Small x resummations confronted with F2(x, Q2) data

It has been observed recently that a consistent LO BFKL gluon evolution leads to a steep growth of F2(x, Q2) for x → 0 almost independently of Q2. We show that current data from the DESY HERA collider are precise enough to finally rule out a pure BFKL behaviour in the accessible small x region. Several attempts have been made by other groups to treat the BFKL type small x resummations instead as additions to the conventional anomalous dimensions of the successful renormalization group “Altarelli-Parisi” equations. We demonstrate that all presently available F2 data, in particular at lower values of Q2, can not be described using the presently known NLO (two-loop consistent) small x resummations. Finally we comment on the common reason for the failure of these BFKL inspired methods which result, in general, in too steep >x-dependencies as x → 0.

Balitskiǐ-Fadin-Kuraev-Lipatov equation versus data from DESY HERA

The BFKL equation and the kT-factorization theorem are used to obtain predictions for F2 in the small Bjo/rken-x region over a wide range of Q2. The dependence on the parameters, especially on those concerning the infrared region, is discussed. After a background fit to recent experimental data obtained at DESY HERA and at Fermilab (E665 experiment) we find that the predicted, almost Q2 independent BFKL slope λ≳0.5 appears to be too steep at lower Q2 values. Thus there seems to be a chance that future HERA data can distinguish between pure BFKL and conventional field theoretic renormalization group approaches. © 1995 The American Physical Society.

Delivery of crop pollination services is an insufficient argument for wild pollinator conservation

There is compelling evidence that more diverse ecosystems deliver greater benefits to people, and these ecosystem services have become a key argument for biodiversity conservation. However, it is unclear how much biodiversity is needed to deliver ecosystem services in a cost-effective way. Here we show that, while the contribution of wild bees to crop production is significant, service delivery is restricted to a limited subset of all known bee species. Across crops, years and biogeographical regions, crop-visiting wild bee communities are dominated by a small number of common species, and threatened species are rarely observed on crops. Dominant crop pollinators persist under agricultural expansion and many are easily enhanced by simple conservation measures, suggesting that cost-effective management strategies to promote crop pollination should target a different set of species than management strategies to promote threatened bees. Conserving the biological diversity of bees therefore requires more than just ecosystem-service-based arguments.

Non-bee insects are important contributors to global crop pollination

Wild and managed bees are well documented as effective pollinators of global crops of economic importance. However, the contributions by pollinators other than bees have been little explored despite their potential to contribute to crop production and stability in the face of environmental change. Non-bee pollinators include flies, beetles, moths, butterflies, wasps, ants, birds, and bats, among others. Here we focus on non-bee insects and synthesize 39 field studies from five continents that directly measured the crop pollination services provided by non-bees, honey bees, and other bees to compare the relative contributions of these taxa. Non-bees performed 25–50% of the total number of flower visits. Although non-bees were less effective pollinators than bees per flower visit, they made more visits; thus these two factors compensated for each other, resulting in pollination services rendered by non-bees that were similar to those provided by bees. In the subset of studies that measured fruit set, fruit set increased with non-bee insect visits independently of bee visitation rates, indicating that non-bee insects provide a unique benefit that is not provided by bees. We also show that non-bee insects are not as reliant as bees on the presence of remnant natural or seminatural habitat in the surrounding landscape. These results strongly suggest that non-bee insect pollinators play a significant role in global crop production and respond differently than bees to landscape structure, probably making their crop pollination services more robust to changes in land use. Non-bee insects provide a valuable service and provide potential insurance against bee population declines.