Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot.

Nitrogen fertilizer and seed rate effects on Hagberg failing number of hybrid wheats and their parents are associated with alpha-amylase activity, grain cavity size and dormancy

Field experiments were carried out to assess the effects of nitrogen fertilization and seed rate on the Hagberg falling number (HFN) of commercial wheat hybrids and their parents. Applying nitrogen (200 kg N ha(-1)) increased HFN in two successive years. The HFN of the hybrid Hyno Esta was lower than either of its parents (Estica and Audace), particularly when nitrogen was not applied. Treatment effects on HFN were negatively associated with a-amylase activity. Phadebas grain blotting suggested two populations of grains with different types of a-amylase activity: Estica appeared to have a high proportion of grains with low levels of late maturity endosperm a-amylase activity (LMEA); Audace had a few grains showing high levels of germination amylase; and the hybrid, Hyno Esta, combined the sources from both parents to show heterosis for a-amylase activity. Applying nitrogen reduced both apparent LMEA and germination amylase. The effects on LMEA were associated with the size and disruption of the grain cavity, which was greater in Hyno Esta and Estica and in zero-nitrogen treatments. External grain morphology failed to explain much of the variation in LMEA and cavity size, but there was a close negative correlation between cavity size and protein content. Applying nitrogen increased post-harvest dormancy of the grain. Dormancy was greatest in Estica and least in Audace. It is proposed that effects of seed rate, genotype and nitrogen fertilizer on HFN are mediated through factors affecting the size and disruption of the grain cavity and therefore LMEA, and through factors affecting dormancy and therefore germination amylase. (c) 2004 Society of Chemical Industry.

Effect of two opposing changes in photoperiod upon age at first egg in layer-hybrid pullets

An experiment was designed to test the response of growing pullets to two changes in photoperiod (an increase from 8 to 14 h followed 5 weeks later by the reverse change, or a decrease from 14 to 8 h followed by an increase). The first change was made either at 35 days or at 56 days of age, to test the influence of age on the responses observed. Control groups were kept oil constant 8-h and constant 14-h photoperiods and the responses to appropriate single changes were also tested. Mean age at first egg varied from 111 days for birds given a single increment at 56 days to 166 days for pullets given an increase in photoperiod at 35 days followed by a reduction at 70 days. Responses to the single changes confirmed earlier reports that sensitivity to change in photoperiod varies with age ill a manner that is quantitatively predictable. Responses to the double changes could be explained by Postulating that the initial change altered the 'physiological age' of the bird to all extent that was also quantitatively predictable. An early increase in photoperiod advances sexual development and makes the bird more sensitive to a subsequent decrease than would be expected by reference to its chronological age. An early decrease in photoperiod delays sexual development, which can have the effect of making the bird more or less sensitive to a subsequent increase since, ill layer-strain pullets, sensitivity to an increment in photoperiod normally increases Lip to about 9 weeks of age but decreases thereafter. Mean age at first egg predicted using these concepts was very highly correlated with observed age at first egg. The results provide a rational basis for constructing a model to predict age at first egg for any combination of increases and decreases in photoperiod applied to growing pullets.

Environmental control for layers

Light patterns have less effect on numbers of eggs laid by current stocks than on those of forty years ago, but the principles have not changed. Ovarian activity is stimulated by increasing photoperiods and suppressed by decreasing photoperiods. The light pattern used during rearing can still have large effects on age at 50% lay, even for modern stocks. Early sexual maturity maximises egg numbers but gives smaller eggs. Late maturity maximises egg size at the expense of numbers. The relationship between egg output (g/hen d) and age at first egg is curvilinear, with maximum yield occurring in flocks maturing in about the centre of their potential range. Fancy patterns of increasing daylength after maturity are probably not justified. A flock held on a constant 14h day will lay as many eggs as one given step up lighting. Intermittent lighting saves about 5% of feed consumption with no loss of output, provided that the feed has adequate amino acid content to allow for the reduced feed intake. Producers with light-proof laying houses should be taking advantage of intermittent lighting. The recommended light intensity for laying houses is still 10 lx, although the physiological threshold for response to changes in photoperiod is closer to 2 lx. Very dim (0.05 lx) light filtering into blacked out houses will not stimulate the hypothalamic receptors responsible for photo-sexual responses, but may affect the bird's biological clock, which can alter its response to a constant short photoperiod. Feed intake shows a curvilinear dependence on environmental temperature. At temperatures below the panting threshold, performance can be maintained by adjusting the feed so as to maintain an adequate intake of critical amino acids. Above the panting threshold, the hen is unable to take in enough energy to maintain normal output. There is no dietary modification which can effectively offset this problem. Diurnally cycling temperatures result in feed intake and egg production equivalent to that observed under a constant temperature equal to the mean of the cycle. When the poultry house is cooler at night than by day, it helps to provide light so that the birds can feed during the cooler part of the cycle.

Nutrition of chicks and layers

When formulating least-cost poultry diets, ME concentration should be optimised by an iterative procedure, not entered as a fixed value. This iteration must calculate profit margins by taking into account the way in which feed intake and saleable outputs vary with ME concentration. In the case of broilers, adjustment of critical amino acid contents in direct proportion to ME concentration does not result in birds of equal fatness. To avoid an increase in fat deposition at higher energy levels, it is proposed that amino acid specifications should be adjusted in proportion to changes in the net energy supplied by the feed. A model is available which will both interpret responses to amino acids in laying trials and give economically optimal estimates of amino acid inputs for practical feed formulation. Flocks coming into lay and flocks nearing the end of the pullet year have bimodal distributions of rates of lay, with the result that calculations of requirement based on mean output will underestimate the optimal amino acid input for the flock. Chick diets containing surplus protein can lead to impaired utilisation of the first-limiting amino acid. This difficulty can be avoided by stating amino acid requirements as a proportion of the protein.

Infection of hybrid primula seeds by Botrytis cinerea and latent disease spread through the plants

Botrytis cinerea occurred commonly on cultivated Primula ×polyantha seed. The fungus was mostly on the outside of the seed but sometimes was present within the seed. The fungus frequently caused disease at maturity in plants grown from the seed, demonstrated by growing plants in a filtered airflow, isolated from other possible sources of infection. Young, commercially produced P. ×polyantha plants frequently had symptomless B. cinerea infections spread throughout the plants for up to 3 months, with symptoms appearing only at flowering. Single genetic individuals of B. cinerea, as determined by DNA fingerprinting, often were dispersed widely throughout an apparently healthy plant. Plants could, however, contain more than one isolate.

Ovarian follicle development in the laying hen is accompanied by divergent changes in inhibin A, inhibin B, activin A and follistatin production in granulosa and theca layers

To study the potential involvement of inhibin A (inhA), inhibin B (inhB), activin A (actA) and follistatin (FS) in the recruitment of follicles into the preovulatory hierarchy, growing follicles (ranging from 1 mm to the largest designated F1) and the three most recent postovulatory follicles (POFs) were recovered from laying hens (n=11). With the exception of <4 mm follicles and POFs, follicle walls were dissected into separate granulosa (G) and theca (T) layers before extraction. Contents of inhA, inhB, actA and FS in tissue extracts were assayed using specific two-site ELISAs and results are expressed per mg DNA. InhB content of both G and T followed a similar developmental pattern, although the content was >4-fold higher in G than in T at all stages. InhB content was very low in follicles <4 nun but increased - 50-fold (P<0.0001) to peak in 7-9 mm follicles, before falling steadily as follicles entered and moved up the follicular hierarchy (40-fold; 8 mm vs F2). In stark contrast, inhA remained very low in prehierarchical follicles (&LE; 9 mm) but then increased progressively as follicles moved up the preovulatory hierarchy to peak in F1 (&SIM; 100-fold increase; P<0.0001); In F1 >97% of inhA was confined to the G layer whereas in 5-9 mm follicles inhA was only. detected in the T layer. Both inhA and inhB contents of POFs were significantly reduced compared with F1. Follicular actA was mainly confined to the T layer although detectable levels were present in G from 9 nun; actA was low between 1 and 9 mm but increased sharply as follicles entered the preovulatory hierarchy (&SIM;6-fold higher in F4; P<0.0001); levels then fell &SIM;2-fold as the follicle progressed to F1. Like actA, FS predominated in the T although significant amounts were also present in the G of prehierarchical follicles (4-9 mm), in contrast to actA, which was absent from the G. The FS content of T rose &SIM;3-fold from 6 mm to a plateau which was sustained until F1. In contrast, the FS content of G was greatest in prehierarchical follicles and fell &SIM;4-fold in F4-F1 follicles. ActA and FS contents of POFs were reduced compared with F1. In vitro studies on follicle wall explants confirmed the striking divergence in the secretion of inhA and inhB during follicle development. These findings of marked stage-dependent differences in the expression of inhA, inhB, actA and FS proteins imply a significant functional role for these peptides in the recruitment and ordered progression of follicles within the avian ovary.

Solution self-assembly of hybrid block copolymers containing poly(ethylene glycol) and amphiphilic beta-strand peptide sequences

The self-assembly in aqueous solution of hybrid block copolymers consisting of amphiphilic β-strand peptide sequences flanked by one or two PEG chains was investigated by means of circular dichroism spectroscopy, small-angle X-ray scattering, and transmission electron microscopy. In comparison with the native peptide sequence, it was found that the peptide secondary structure was stabilized against pH variation in the di-and tri-block copolymers with PEG. Small-angle X-ray scattering indicated the presence of fibrillar structures, the dimensions of which are comparable to the estimated width of a β-strand (with terminal PEG chains in the case of the copolymers). Transmission electron microscopy on selectively stained and dried specimens shows directly the presence of fibrils. It is proposed that these fibrils result from the hierarchical self-assembly of peptide β-strands into helical tapes, which then stack into fibrils.

Pervaporation dehydration of isopropyl alcohol with NaY zeolite incorvorated hybrid membranes

With a solution technique, NaY zeolite incorporated, tetraethylorthosilicate-crosslinked poly(vinyl alcohol) membranes were prepared. The resulting membranes were tested for their ability to separate isopropyl alcohol/water mixtures by pervaporation in the temperature range of 30-50 degrees C. The effects of the zeolite content and feed composition on the pervaporation performance of the membranes were investigated. The experimental results demonstrated that both flux and selectivity increased simultaneously with increasing zeolite content in the membranes. This was explained on the basis of the enhancement of hydrophilicity, selective adsorption, and establishment of a molecular sieving action attributed to the creation of pores in the membrane matrix. The membrane containing 15 mass % zeolite exhibited the highest separation selectivity of 3991 with a flux of 5.39 X 10(-2) kg/m(2) h with 10 mass % water in the feed at 30 degrees C. The total flux and flux of water were close to each other for almost all the studied membranes, and this suggested that the membranes could be used effectively to break the azeotropic point of water/isopropyl alcohol mixtures to remove a small amount of water from isopropyl alcohol. From the temperature-dependent diffusion and permeation values, the Arrhenius activation parameters were estimated. The activation energy values obtained for water were significantly lower than those for isopropyl alcohol, and this suggested that the developed membranes had a higher separation efficiency for water/isopropyl alcohol systems. The activation energy values for total permeation and water permeation were found to be almost the same for all the membranes, and this signified that coupled transport was minimal because of the highly selective nature of the membranes. Positive heat of sorption values were observed in all the membranes, and this suggested that Henry's mode of sorption was predominant. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, lnc.